tamarack

Least snowy of my 23 winters here. In fact, least snowy since 1973-74 in BGR, my 1st full winter in Maine. And a December that might retain the #1 spot for mild temp for the rest of the century even if warming were to continue apace thru 2100. Wonder how many sites in NNE have had their first frost. Of the 107 sites with published frost/freeze probabilities, 33 of them have passed their average first frost date based on the 1981-2010 normals. Median date for 1st frost here is Sept. 19 and we haven't yet dipped below 40. Maybe we frost week after next - only 2011 made it thru Sept w/o a frost here.

That's an absolute monster of a timber rattler. I thought the 43" specimen a HS friend killed (this was about 1962) behind a NNJ Shop-Rite was big. And a slight correction to the article. While timber rattlers were once in all 6 New England states, the last in Maine - on Mt. Agamenticus - were extirpated about 1900 and I've not heard that they've returned.

From looking at major I-95 cities RIC north, the absolute monsters may disappear more slowly than big storm frequency or average snowfall. Below are the current numbers I have for 10 sites RIC to HUL, biggest on record with dates, and 15th biggest. The first column values are remarkably similar once north of Potomac (RIC shown for contrast) but significantly different for #15s. Site BIggest Date Fifteenth RIC 21.6" Jan. 1940 10.9" DC 28.0" Jan. 1922 12.4" "Knickerbocker storm" BWI 29.2" Jan. 2016 14.1" PHL 30.7" Jan. 1996 14.3" NYC 27.5" Jan. 2016 17.5" PVD 28.6" Feb. 1978 14.7" BOS 27.6 Feb. 2003 18.2" PWM 31.9" Feb. 2013 16.7" BGR 30.9" Feb. 1969 18.1" HUL 29.2" Mar. 1981 16.6" I'm not sure if the progressively later-in-season timing as one goes north is meaningful. 2nd biggest snowfalls are all over the place: DC thru NYC all Feb, PVD and PWM Jan, and BGR in Dec.

Why? It was CAR's 2nd warmest August and 2nd warmest September, and easily the warmest for the couplet. It's a psycho-babble support group in here, period. Deal with it - Rich irony there.

Thanks. Makes sense.

Fascinating series. The 2020 pic is surprising given the Sept temps. Did they have a big wind event shortly prior to Oct. 2? Photoperiod is definitely the basic driver of both leaf out and leaf color, though each process can be pushed earlier or later, by as much as 2 weeks in my experience. Timing of leaf drop is often storm-related. Color vibrancy is likely a result of multiple factors, rain, temps (and timing for each) and probably others. I've read explanatory articles that often conflict with each other - it's kind of like using the color scheme on woolly worms to predict winter severity. One study of the latter by a (now retired) Maine entomologist found a weak correlation but far from statistically robust given the sample size.

2019 at the Farmington co-op, almost as much BN as 2018.

Checked the Farmington co-op's last 10 years for each month, compared to the 1981-2010 norms. September indeed is 9/10 AN but it's the only such month, though Jan and May are 8/10. At the other end, April and Nov are 4/10. The 12-month avg is 6.6 AN, not surprising as the late 90s forward has definitely shown significant warming.

First 5 days this month were all BN and 7 of the first 8 and 9 of 12 going back thru 8/28. Then 5 of the most recent 7 were AN but that's becoming easier to do with the average dropping about 0.3° daily.

It was 72/57, which is +8 here and pulled the month to 0.1° BN. Will be AN after today and might reach +2 a week from now. By then the average here will be 66/44 so it doesn't need to be summery to be siggy AN.

Nicest TS of the year, though in a normal thunder season it would be garden variety at best. Some 20s gusts at the start and lightning from 4:45-5:30 PM at 10-12 flashes per minute, about 4x more frequent than anything else this year, and 6 seconds was the closest. Then occasional showers thru midnight with 0.97" total, apparently tops for Maine cocorahs, an odd position for this site. Still have not seen an actual bolt since last Sept and the only strikes closer than one mile were the two random hits (including the fir fracturer) last March.

Wait 50 years and assume the current rate of warming and you might be close. We'll have >50% leaf drop by mid-Oct and by late month only the oaks will hold more than 1/4 of their leaves. Showing significant (and dull) change here on maple/ash/basswood but only on leaves <25' from the ground. Treetops remain mostly green. Sept temp now 0.1° BN, will likely climb to AN in the days to come. Sept RA of 4.14" is already 1/2" above the full month average - not sure how that will affect timing and vividness.

Warm front action stayed well north - saw some 60+ pixels a few miles west of CAR at 8 this morning and FVE reported 1.08" since 2 AM, likely most in the 6-8 window. Our turn this afternoon? (For the area - my particular locale seems to fend off any suggestion of severe.)

Median date for 1st frost here is 9/19. I'm guessing it will be at least a week later this year.

That was one of 3 large snowstorms in which Farmington reported way more than I had. VD07 was another, with my 15.5" dwarfed by their 23.0", with an even bigger difference in LE, 3.06" to my 1.80". Their 2.68" on the 14th is their 2nd greatest calendar day precip in February, behind a 3.25" rainstorm in 1900. The 2/5-6/01 storm also had a big difference in LE, with 2.35" in Farmington and 1.39" at my place. Those 2 might be legit despite the variance, but I remain very skeptical about the 3rd, 12/6-7/2003. The respective numbers for each place are below. Farmington 12/6 22 8 1.01" 14.0" 14" 12/7 23 20 1.95" 26.0" 40" My place 6 miles to the east 12/6 20 5 0.43" 6.0" 6" 12/7 22 18 1.20" 18.0" 22" My obs time was 9 PM and theirs midnight and since it was puking snow at 9 it's likely I had ~12" by 12, making their 14 believable. However, that would men that while I had ~12" on 12/7, they got 26" and IMO that dog won't hunt. Other stations in the general area were 23-34" (Rangeley, 1,050 higher with orographic enhancement, reported 40) and we were at our church 1.5 miles SE from the co-op site and maybe 100' higher within an hour of final flakes, and the snow in the church lot (most had not yet been plowed yet) looked about the same as at our house. I can buy 30" but I think the co-op had some drifting - that storm is one of the 4 here that met all the blizzard criteria.

2/5-6/01 was a great 17" storm but I don't think it ever reached 2"/hr much less 4. We were probably 70+ miles north of the 5"/hour stuff. It was also notable for a near "tragedy" - I was about to run the snowblower up the path to our dog's tie-out but decided to walk in and free him from something under the snow first. 2 steps into the path and a partridge burst out of the snow, beating its wings against my leg. Might've been messy if I'd used the machine. 12/29-30/16 might be a contender but I was sleeping for most of the heaviest - 17.5" in 7 hours, 21.0" total. That Feb 2009 storm had 18" in 7.5 hours, beginning with the 9 in 2:45 noted above, so it's likely that the 2016 dump had some 3"/hour or more at some point. Much farther north, the 26.5" storm of 3/14-15/84 had several hours of 3"/hour in the middle of the day and the 18.5" bust* about 5 weeks earlier all fell in 9-10 hours so also may have cracked the 3"/hour barrier. *Forecast was 1-3" so the plow crews for the school parking lots had slept in, awaking too late to clear the snow and causing the one and only full-day school closure in our 10 years in Fort Kent. They also closed school after a half day during the March monster, sending the buses out during that midday dumpage, some having kids 30 (hilly/curvy) miles away, and all made it safely.

Just IMO, but I'd up the thresholds a bit, to +10 and +15, though north/inland tends to have more variability than less north/inland. Average max at summer's height here is 76 and when it gets to 85+ it's torchy, though the less common 80/70 is plenty uncomfortable. Average max at depth of winter is 25, and I can't think "torch" with temps in the 30s.

Also very well described, with emphasis on the importance of knowing when to retreat.

It certainly brought most NNJ stations to their deepest pack on record, generally by a foot or more. My guess for our place in NNJ is 45" but my only "measure" was my friend and I thinking we could wade thru it the 2000 feet to the nearby reservoir. Sinking in past our navels (with plenty of dense snow still underfoot), we made it about 100 yards before common sense returned. At the time I was 5'8" and he was an inch taller. I've yet to observe 4"/hr snowfall except perhaps for 15 minutes in a Fort Kent snowsquall. Tops for siggy length is the 9" in 2:45 (10 PM-12:45 AM) from the dump of 24.5" on2/22-23/2009. Reading about the 4/5/6" rates makes me wonder if I'm a bit too far north/inland to connect with those death bands.

Farther north, central/western Maine (LEW/Gardiner/Farmington/Bridgton) all had a heatwave on those same dates in 1895. Farmington recorded 100 on 9/22 but I'm skeptical of some of their warm-season maxima 1893-97. However, Bridgton reached 95, LEW 96 and to the northeast, Orono had 97 (but only 2 days 90+).

EWR 13.7", and Paterson 17.5", Midland Park 20" (10 and 15 miles NW of Central Park, respectively. Feb 3-4 was bigger but similar - 17.4" NYC, 22.6" EWR, 22.7" Paterson. (MidPk missing)

I've read that the late October storm that took 2 lives on Katahdin in 1963 was the remains of a hurricane. Ripogenis Dam had 19" of wet snow (low 30s, 2.75" LE) at 965'. The 2 fatals (woman stuck on a ledge and ranger from Chimney Pond who went to help) were at over 4,000' and facing north.

It's 50 years ago when a (later) co-worker was stationed at the AFB in western Long Island. Another AF buddy was driving in on the Long Island Expressway when he had a flat. Went back to the trunk and was freeing up the spare when he heard a noise up front, and walked around to see the hood up and a guy fiddling with something. Guy said "That's cool; you get the spare and I'll get the battery!"

That phenomenon was helped by NYC reporting oddly low snowfall for the 1958 storm, 5.9" on 2/16 and 7.9" total, with temps/LE making significant p-type issues a low probability. EWR had 13.3", PHL 13.0", BDL 11.6", inland NJ 16-21", BOS 19.4". (Trivia: That was my 2nd of 7 storms 18-24" 3/56 thru 2/61. Never since experienced such a flock of huge storms, though we had 5 events 15.5-21.0" from 12/16 thru 3/18, 6 if the start point is 1/15.)

Finished with 1.50", 0.25" by 7 AM yesterday, 0.42" in spurts during the day then 0.83" between 9 PM and 4 AM. SEP now at 3.17", a tenth more than ultra-cloudy August and 3/10" above the May-June combo. Saw some 3"+ downeast and a couple 6-7" reports (CHH was one) on the cape.