tamarack

"Why can't they be like we are, perfect in every way. Oh, what's the matter to kids today!" (from Bye Bye Birdie) IMO, it's more the lawyers that the kids.

The nearby Farmington co-op had -39/-38 in January 1994, their coldest mornings 1893 thru 2022. In 1994 they had 7 AM obs time so those 2 minima might've been registered 2 minutes apart. Other sites with midnight obs had the 2nd day 7-10° less cold. I looked into my Fort Kent records, and the longest run of subzero minima was 18 days, Jan 16 thru Feb 2, 1982. I'd expected a longer streak in that much colder climate; sometimes only a single-digit low would prevent a run of 25-30.

-15 at 7 AM, haven't checked the max-min yet. 6th straight minima below zero, will probably make 9 before next week's mild-up. Longest runs of subzero minima are 14 in January 2003 and 12 that February - a cold but dry (and BN snow) winter.

If we can get half of the big coastals, it's a win. March 2018 had 4 biggies; we had a trace from #1 and zero from #4, but the 2 middle ones brought 36.4". One could dream of catching all 4 but that merely spoils the pleasure of the ones that hit.

Was -2 at 10:15 last evening with some thin clouds. Temp then took a deep dive to -23 by 7 this morning. We're in a frost pocket but possibly being the coldest morning in NNE would be really weird.

Hit the rad pit jackpot this morning with -23, coldest since Jan. 2022. Temp wiggled between zero and -4 last evening with a very thin cloud layer. That cloud must've disappeared before midnight, and with fresh deep snow, dry air and no wind, the temp plunged nearly 20° between 11 PM and 7 AM.

Rare for sure. Closest I've come since 60-61 is 00-01 (3rd largest 16") and 16-17 (3rd largest 15.5). Our 10 winters in Fort Kent averaged 134", and 140" in our 4 winters at the back settlement, 450' higher than in town. We had 4 events of 18"+, one each in 76-77 and 80-81 and 2 in 83-84. T We now are up to a dozen 18"+ in 28 winters here, essentially the same rate as in FK. The difference between FK's 134" avg and ours near 90" is all the 5-10" storms in the north. Here the winters average 1.7 storms 10"+ and 5.8 of 5"+. Fort Kent's averages are 2.4 and 8.7.

19.6" here, but that pair of 18-inchers keeps you 3.1" ahead. I've seen 2 storms of 18+ in a winter only twice since moving to Maine, 83-84 (Fort Kent) and 16-17 here. Saw 2 such winters in a 4-year period in NNJ, 57-58 and 60-61 (had 18, 20 and 24 events that latter winter). Cat 3 KU? 10-20+ inches from NY metro to central Maine. Grandkids in SNJ had 6-7" with beaucoup IP and a thin ZR cap, so PHL likely didn't reach 10".

Finished with 19.6" with a mere 0.77" LE for ratio 25.5-to-1. Even without the freakish 6" of 75:1 superfluff yesterday morning, the remainder was near 20:1. It's by far the biggest snowfall with 25+ ratio; next biggest was Feb. 11-12, 2017, when a 1-3 forecast verified 8.0" feathers drifting on a steady light north wind, only 0.26" LE, 30.8-to-1. Nearest cocorahs (Farmington 4.2NNW, about 10 miles NW from here) reported 19.5".

The better echoes might stay south of here, unless the area expands to the north. Only traces here since 1:30. Easiest 15"+ snowfall to blow off the driveway that I can remember. 17.5" from 0.66" LE so far, a ratio of 26.5-to-1. Only 15"+ I've seen that's even close was Dec 19-20, 1981 in Fort Kent, with 15.5" from 0.68" LE, ratio 22.8-to-1.

If that were to validate, I'd be getting another 0.22" LE and probably another 3-5", eclipsing Jan 27-28, 2015 with a mere 0.88" LE compared to 2.17" LE from the 20" blizzard eleven years ago. (Another 0.05-0.10" is more likely IMO.)

Absolutely! We've had 6" of those kind of feathers in the 6.5 hours since clearing the board at 7 AM, with a microscopic LE of 0.08". Had only 0.01" from a 1.0" snow and two different times seeing 4.5" with 0.10", but 6" of 75:1 ratio is beyond what I thought possible. Very little wind and sub-10 temps were a big help. Hardly anything falling now, but the total now is 17.5" though the 13" pack of yesterday morning only gained 16". Given the fluff factor, unless we have several more inches of dendrites like the above pic (doubtful), the current 29" will probably be the stake's top reading.

Snow arrived at 4:30 yesterday afternoon and by my 9 PM obs time we had 2.0" from 0.17" LE, with small but sparkling flakes. Cleared another 9.5" off the board at 7 this morning, with 0.41" LE, about doubling the ratio. About 3" of feathers since, no core yet, making this our 2nd biggest January snowfall here - the 20" in 2015 seems safe. Temp stayed zero-2° until about 8 AM, 2nd coldest significant snowfall (behind the -1 of 2/2/15) since moving from Fort Kent. Stake level has gone from 13" to 27". Not much wind, but even a 10-15 mph gust produces a white-out as the trees shed.

Looks like Pittston, with view across the Kennebec to Mt. Tom (great sledding hill) on the Gardiner estate. The castle would be just to the left of the pic.

I'd love that 20+ but would prefer that the grandkids in SNJ got 10+ instead of that map's 4" of SN/IP/ZR mix. Current forecast for us from GYX is in the 10-16 range.

When we lived in Fort Kent, we saw the clear air sparkles several times. Needed to be flat calm and -20 or colder. There's a French term in the St. John Valley (perhaps other places, too) for the phenomenon that translates "the cold coming down".

Whiff? Or merely 8 hours later than current thinking?

964 mb bomb in Boothbay Harbor might be a bit too close for all snow in the foothills.

That's mainly because it's based on my personal obs and averages, and my records only go back to 1976. Some older 40(+) cold runs: Fort Kent (my obs): Dec 11-31, 1981 thru Jan 18, 1981: -11.5 NYC (Central Park) data, working backwards: Dec 30, 1976 thru Feb 7, 1977: -11.6 Feb 1 thru Mar 12, 1934: -12.6 (Add Jan 29-31, and it's -12.9. Mid-Jan was too warm to include Dec 29-31, 1933 in a '40'.) Dec 29, 1917 thru Feb 6, 1918: -15.0 Farmington, Maine co-op: Dec 11, 1980 thru Jan 19, 1981: -15.7 Nov 21 thru Dec 30, 1989: -14.7

2/8-9/2013. Scattered 30"+ (including 31.9" at PWM, their biggest on record) and lots of 20s. My area had 9-11" while AUG (25 mi SE) and LEW (40 mi s.) had ~25".

High ratios would give us 10-12". Cold sand, high-end advisory.

Can't recall seeing that as a forecast, but we've had at least 3 stretches of 40-day BN temps in Maine. Gardiner (9 miles south from AUG): Nov 22-Dec 30, 1989: 13.2 BN Dec 26, 1993-Feb 3, 1994: 11.5 BN New Sharon (western Maine foothills): Jan 26-Mar 6, 2015: 12.7 BN ariof noted 2 of those 3. A shorter (25 day) run was Dec 14, 2017 thru Jan 8, 2018: 15.9 BN

56.8" where I grew up in NNJ? We had 50" there from Jan 19 thru Feb 4 in 1961, but the above shows 7" more and a week shorter. Can always go up from there.

Our 4 winters in the back settlement in Fort Kent averaged 141". We lived on the north side of the road and the end of plowing. Plow drivers had to plow our side first, but they didn't have to clear 3/4 of the final width on that first pass. Banks would climb to 7-8 feet on our side, 3-4 feet on the other side. Worst time was in Dec 1983, 10" SN followed by 1"+ RA, followed by another 1.5" and plunging temp. I faced a wet mess 3 feet high and 5 feet wide - lots of work for the snow scoop. While I was in the woods west of Allagash, my neighbor plowed the driveway, very helpful but had to leave 30" vertical banks on both sides and back, which were frozen solid by the time I got home. Short of using dynamite, all scoop dumping had to be into the road rest of winter, including the 18.5" storm in early Feb and 26.5" mid-March.

Yikes! The trees that withstood Helene in the NC/TN mountains would be torn apart if that were to verify.