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Everything posted by tamarack
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Hoisting the Sultan Signal: Heavy Rain Event July 5-7
tamarack replied to WxWatcher007's topic in New England
Did that "attic-furnace" insulating in Fort Kent on the day (5/22/77) CAR hit 96, but I was young and foolish back then. I'm no longer young. When I worked with carpenters in NNJ, 1967-73, we generally stayed off roofing if the temp was much over 80, especially in full sun, unless the roof pitch was low enough for us to work from above. Otherwise, we'd mess up the softened shingles already installed. -
Hoisting the Sultan Signal: Heavy Rain Event July 5-7
tamarack replied to WxWatcher007's topic in New England
Sun thru some very thin clouds, forecast says nada from the current system, maybe some TS late week. (Though that was the forecast for last Wed-Sat and nothing happened.) The Sandy River was above 75th percentile last Monday and probably will drop below 25% by Wednesday, as the trees are working and the temps have been very AN this month. -
40 years ago in Northern Maine, straight line winds flattened about 600 acres, a swath 4 miles long running SW to NE. It started a bit north of (Aroostook) Eagle Lake and ended by blowing spruce trees into Square Lake. I've no idea whether the folks from CAR came out to look and report, but from what I heard and saw the wind probably reached 90-100 mph. (That storm was late in season for that area - Sept 30. Ironically, 5 years later to the day they had 3-5" snow.)
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Many years ago (1960?) I was with a group of kids on a trip to Sandy Hook, NJ. Expecting the mid-July ocean to be 70-72, we were a bit dismayed to find it at 57. Went swimming anyway but not for as long. Of course, some years earlier (1952) on our vacation at Spruce Head, part of Boothbay Harbor, I swam most every day in water that might've been even colder. Of course, 6-year-olds don't feel the cold water until mom or dad sees the blue lips and pulls us out.
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If that 87 is EWR it's their new record. 7/22/2011 was 108/86. (A Phoenix day, but with humidity.) Storms slid to my south, 3-for-3 the past 3 nights. Didn't even see any "heat lightning" (a term I've used since the 1950s for flashes from too far away to be heard. Sorry, LR). The SFD from GYX talked about storms/rain/troughs but their forecast for 04955 doesn't include a single drop thru next Thursday.
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Possibly a TD error - once dews get into mid-70s and above the HI goes nuts. Some years back I found a couple sites at Iranian oil-handling islands on the Persian Gulf that were reporting 98-100F with TD 88-90 and HI well into the 130s. Those readings were consistent over several days. Maybe each site had data issues, or maybe that's the dewpoint capitol of the world. (Several times the reports included wind 25-30 mph with condition listed as "sand". I can't think of a worse wx experience, outside of strong tor/canes.) Follow-up to CAR minima: They were reporting 73 at midnight, warmer at 10 and 11 PM, down to 71 by 1 AM. Looks like their warmest minimum breaks the record, but by 2° rather than 3°.
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No surprise at EWR, while Central Park gets surrounded by ever taler trees. From 2000 on, NYC has reached 100 six times, the most recent in July of 2012. EWR has notched 40 triples during the same 26 years (don't have June numbers yet) and 17 of those have occurred in the 2020s. KNYC 100° And 15 minutes later my data becomes outdated.
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Impressive but probably short of all-time records. They've reached 96 on 4 occasions, May 1977 and June 1944, 2020, 2024. Those peaks came with lower dews than the current condition, and cooking water likely will modify the heat. Their temp only rose 4° between 9 and 11, currently 86 with TD 71, so 90-02 looks better than 96 (unless mixing brings the dews to low 60s). However, if the morning low of 74 holds, that will be their record mild minimum, currently 71 reached a half dozen times.
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Our home has trees 70-80 feet tall within 10 yards on 3 sides - 4th side same tree heights but 30 yards from the house. To make solar feasible we'd need to cut about a 3-year supply of firewood (5 cd/yr) and buy a new roof. No thanks. 2nd straight evening with all the action sliding to our south. Not even a flicker.
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Probably reached past -25 only once last (cold) winter - the frigid (2/-13) Sunday as the fluff bomb was approaching. Most recent -40 would be Feb 3-4, 2023. It's not an every-day phenomenon. (Unless you're on the Rockpile) Mid 80s here with somewhat filtered sun and TD about 70 - summer. Forecast for tomorrow would predict a new hottest day here (currently 93) but our dense forest pumps cooling air into the atmosphere. The co-op 3 miles to my SE has a much better chance to be 95+.
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June 2026 numbers Avg max: 72.8 +1.3 Warmest: 85, 12th Avg min: 51.2 +1.6 Coolest: 35, 2nd Mean: 62.0 +1.5 Precip: 5.51" +0.72" Wettest day: 1.27", 18th This is the 2nd consecutive AN. Last time that happened was Dec 23-Jan 24. We had 6 days with thunder, one more than we had all last year. June avg is 3.4. None of the TS were anywhere near severe, but they helped to bring AN total. YTD is still 2.86" BN but the gap has narrowed.
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Maybe. My older brother was in the Corps of Engineers and during the monsoon season of his Vietnam year (1967 into 68) there would be thunder and torrential rain 3-5 PM, so regular that one could almost set one's watch by the storm times.
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Around here 10 per minute is a lot. My only experience with anything close to the above came July 15 years ago at DEC. The storm was 6-8 miles to our south and the flashes were essentially uncountable - at least 100 per minute. Thanks to frequency and distance, the thunder was a constant drum roll. Had a brief (10 minutes with most of the 0.16" in the first 2) but noisy TS arrive at 5 last afternoon. That makes 6 days with thunder this month, one more than all of last year. (Annual average is 15.)
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Time to get back to summer wx. Every day June 16-26 was BN, though modestly - the period was only 2.9° BN. The previous 7 days were 8.9° AN so the 18-day period was +1.7. Month's precip up to 5.35", first 5"+ since May of last year.
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Decent TS rolled thru here 4-4:30, pooch is still unhappy. It's the 5th day this month with thunder (last June had none) and probably put monthly precip past 5".
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I wonder if that's why the heat of June and August last year were different. Both June 24 and August 12 hit 92 in our transpirationally-modified cabin in the woods, only one degree from our hottest. The June heat came with dews over 70 (I was miserable, having had knee replacement surgery the day before) while August 12 was the middle day of only our 2nd heat wave in 28 summers here and had dews mid-60s. Those peaks were also different from some normally hotter MA sites. On June 24 NYC/PHL/BWI were 98 to 101 and ACY reached 102. August 12 was only 90-91 at the big cities and a mere 86 on the boardwalk (actually the AP) at ACY.
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July here is 5.1° warmer than June, thanks to the long plateau from 7/6 thru 8/10 in which the average temp varies only 1.1°. I don't have June 1-3, other than the 84 max on the 3rd, warmest on the max-min while we traveled. Though 6/4-22 had 9 BN days and 10 AN, the average is 2.8 AN thanks to the heat of 10-13. When I derive 1-3 (from nearby sites), it's probably about +3 for 1-22. If it finishes there, 6/26 would rank 4th or 5th warmest of 29.
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York/Cumberland Counties with 2-2.5", gauge here had 0.25", ranking 83rd of 92 cocorahs reports. The bottom 9 were many miles NE from here, mostly Aroostook. June average total is a bit over 5" - still in play but probably won't reach it. On average we get 3 months/year with 5"+; most recent fiver was May 2025.
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Brief moderate shower while I was driving home from Farmington. Usually these showers die before leaving the mountains.
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Call the ACO - maybe that official will trap out the dam builders.
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Next town to the north (Carrabassett Valley) reported 3.04", and the eponymous river rose 7 feet at the North Anson gauge. Had 1.27" in our Stratus, 3.51" for June.
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We are in the 3rd flash flood watch since last Friday. The first 2 provided 1.43" but flow on the local 4th-order watercourse (Sandy River) has barely stayed above the 25th percentile. The initial watch verified in a small area around Conway NH with reports of 3-5" and quick flooding, while 99%+ of the watch areas had a nice drink.
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That 34" dump came at Oak Ridge Reservoir, about 10 miles west from where I grew up. In January that site's pack reached 41", the only time I've seen for NJ pack >36" except for Feb 1961 when Oak Ridge had 50" and 15 miles farther NW, Canistear Reservoir topped out at 52". We probably had 45" after the 3-4 blizzard that year. A friend and I decided to wade thru the pack and it was navel-deep on me (was 5'7 or 8" at the time) and my boots likely didn't get within 6" of the ground. The 35" record was set at the state's least snowy site, Cape May, in the Feb 1899 cold blast and storm. Even Tallahassee had 2". Initial reporting from Mt. Arlington (western Morris County) had 35.5" from the 2021 Jan-Feb dump, but QC follow-up lowered that to under 30".
