hazwoper

On 3/20/2024 at 7:50 PM, bwt3650 said:

Some of my favorite Breck stuff…





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Heading to Breck next week (2 days in Keystone then 4 days in Breck).  Staying right at base of peak 7 all four days.  These photos make me both super pumped and super scared!  First for me and the family out west.

Heading to Keystone for two days (3/28-3/29) and plan to hit Vail on the 29th.  Then we stay on Peak 7 at Breck for 4 days 3/30-4/3.  Hopping they get some nice storms between now and then.  Kids are pumped!

Skied Whiteface Friday.  What a sheet of ice!

On 2/24/2024 at 6:01 AM, chubbs said:

 

I installed my 20kw system last summer for $2.50/watt

2 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Ended and to blue skies in 5 minutes

1" even

 

Wow

Snow squall warnings up…..radar seems to indicate no big deal.

44 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

I'm less sanguine on this than others due to a complete lack of consideration for profits, power density, grid infrastructure or firming costs in virtually all of the analyses. Cost of raw hardware components and the initial margins are always talked about, because they're favorable. In reality, they end up being quite cheap *at first*, but quickly run into firming cost issues as soon as saturation increases. Regardless of whether you like it or not (I sure fuckin don't), we're trying to transition in an almost completely market-based manner and the market is overwhelmingly concerned about returns. Ask GE or Siemens how that's going for them recently with cratering profit margins. Hell, with battery farms, most of the returns at this point aren't even in what you would expect -- power arbitrage. It's in ancillary services! Returns in general were a lot easier in a low inflation, zero-interest-rate environment. Zero consideration is also given to rebound effects. Slow decarbonisation is a trap, as the incremental additional capacity will get used up on growth. Efficiency savings will be spent elsewhere and typically result in *more growth*. You need decarbonisation in large chunks.

I get it, but even the utilities themselves are already transitioning away from gas powered peakers to BESS.  LIPA has already released PPAs for BESS projects to completely replace all of its gas peakers.  The transitioning is happening, although it certainly won't happen overnight or at the speed we need for it to make a massive impact on our CO2 emissions in the near term. 

Being in the industry I have seen first hand what the lending rates have done to the market, but the IRA with its 10-year 30% ITC which for the first time ever includes BESS projects has helped to elevate a lot of that pain.  Not all of it of course.

On 2/10/2024 at 6:21 AM, chubbs said:

Yes, media is doing a lousy job informing the public on climate science. Science has a good handle on the likely temperature changes vs man-made CO2 emissions. There is no scientific debate than man-made emissions are changing the climate at a rapid rate. The big uncertainty is how will the Earth's systems respond. We are conducting a big science experiment in that regard. Nothing in nature or man-made is designed for the climate we are rapidly headed for. Change is going to continue to accelerate as we pull away from our historical climate.   The funny thing is. A world without fossil fuels is looking better and better from an economic standpoint. We are giving ourselves climate angst for no reason, other than we are uncomfortable facing the facts.

THIS^

Coal has already, for several years now, been more expensive to produce electricity when compared to solar (even without incentives).  Energy prices continue to climb and that is why every large corporation has been investing heavily in renewables for their demand needs.  They lock in cheap energy for 25-30 years and 30 years from now the technology to repower those systems will be ten fold better.  Battery tech is increasing tremendously with large scale storage projects coming online all the time.  Off shore wind, which until recently made little financials sense, now, because of better turbine tech AND battery storage, will be a huge part of our energy future.

Renewables are the future, regardless of whether fo9lks want to believe in man made climate change.

13 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

GFS still has the clipper for Saturday

Not clipper.  Originates from west coast system 

Just now, Krs4Lfe said:

Melting will begin this afternoon I guess. I wonder if temps will rebound in that area. 

They are forecast to rebound.

1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

That thing hopped an express train and is booking it outta here.

Good!  Lets get the sun out so it can melt the snow off my panels and I can start generating electrons! 

Gotta love how the 12z GFS initializes the entire area with rain.  LOL.

2 hours ago, Heisy said:

Hrrr always counts mix as snow accumulation, so cut some off near city for sure, but that run legit crushed our region. That’s def a max potential map


.

There will be no mix.  This is straight rain to snow

you had to do it..........

LOL

1 minute ago, dseagull said:

Again... you seem to be arguing with yourself and pointlessly insulting someone that you do not know.   A good way to avoid this (because it will limit opportunities in life,) is to think before you post.  Ask yourself if you would converse this way in a face to face situation.  You don't know me. I don't know you.  It's a psychological phenomenon, the way people tend to communicate with others through their keyboards. 

 

Sincerely,  good luck.  

Maybe respond to my other two posts above?  Of course you won't.  You know why?  Because, again, the science is settled.  While NO ONE can say that the warming we have been seeing is 100% due to man (of course it isn't as there are no real 100% certainties when it comes to climate),  man most certainly has been the main factor in the increases over the last century.

And BTW, I only put you down because of how absurdly ridiculous your arguments are.  

4 minutes ago, dseagull said:

Good luck sir.   Have a nice existence.  Address your own internal issues, and try to get past presidents off your mind.  Your immediate health is much more important than insulting complete strangers over the internet that are trying to have civil discussions. 

I am also not saying that the use of FFs over the last century and a half was not a necessary evil for us as a civilization to grow.  The thing is that we have come to a place in time where the previous status quo is not sustainable for the longevity of our species and our planet.  We have come quite a way since the early 19900s and the time is now to use our collective brains to make for a better planet and one that will continue to thrive long after you and I are gone.

3 minutes ago, dseagull said:

...Also, I have stated many times that anthropogenic global warming is real.  I argue that it is not the primary driver.  I also argue that we cannot allow the solution to these problems to be worse than the problem itself. We can adapt.  I'm not sure what your mental state is or what is going on in your life, but you should read closely before replying.  You are doing yourself a disservice, allowing your emotions to dictate your words. 

OK, that is a fair point.  I, too am not saying that there are not general variabilities in climate over time, BUT the difference is that I understand that the science is clear that what we are doing is absolutely increasing temps far greater than if we hadn't been here.

1 minute ago, dseagull said:

Arguing with angry people that are not interested in having conversations is generally a waste of time.   I do hold a degree in oceanography, correct.  I never insinuated that I am a "scientist," nor did I argue that my views are settled science or absolutely correct.  

 

I would suggest that you educate yourself about the carbon cycle that has repeated itself many times since the formation of our planet.   

 

Like i said previously, I won't insult you.  I wish you the best as a fellow American, and wish you all of the luck over the next few years.   

You are clueless about the general climate cycle that has repeated itself since earths formation and its difference from mans continued increases in carbon releases due to burning of FFs.

Also, I have a degree in Environmental science, but would never call myself a scientist either.  BUT, I am educated enough to understand the difference between the general cycle of carbon on our planet over billions of years and the man caused massive release of carbon in just the last 100-150 years.

4 minutes ago, dseagull said:

Huh? Trump?  What are you even talking about a former president for?   Sounds like the man is living in your head rent free.  

 

As for the education, I can assure you that I am well educated.   I can also assure you that many other scientists that have opposing views are also incredibly educated.  

 

In essence, you have proven my point for me.  Those who believe climate change is primarily anthropogenic in form, generally seem to insult others with opposing views, rather than discuss the issues with them.   To these people, it is "settled science," which quite simply does not exist.  It goes against the premise of science.  

 

I won't insult you, but I do suggest you diagnose why you mentioned a former president in this forum.  It's not a good look, but also a common theme among those who have allowed politics to enter every facet of their lives. 

 

You also seem to forget that "fossil fuels" have allowed humans to advance. Without this form of energy, we may still be in the stone age.  Convenient facts to omit.   We tend to do better as a species when we use facts, rather than emotions to form arguments or have polite debate. 

Ohhhh....so you're a scientist.  Gotcha.  LOL.

The science is settled for your information.  The release of carbon from the burning of fossil fuels that have been held up in the earth's crust since well before the dawn man are ABSOLUTELY, 100% increasing global temperatures.  Its settled science Mr. Scientist.

For those that don't understand the science of burning FF and releasing carbon, which has been locked in our crust since the dawn of time, and how it is absolutely negatively impacting our climate and in turn our species should probably go back and get an education.

15 hours ago, dseagull said:

Propaganda has been terrifyingly effective since the dawn of mankind.  

 

We adapt.  

 

....or we dont... That's science.  

 

The cure can't be worse than the problem.  For some reason, mankind cannot seem to work past that.

 

Having said that, our biggest enemy is ourselves and division (only second to those who wish to use perceived "crisis" for control.)   

Trump lost......

No one.....and I mean NO ONE, start a storm thread.  That is all.

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cutter on cmc and gfs

Not "more amped" though.  The energy behind it is delayed which allows it to cut.  Later redevelopment and weaker.

Kind of already over winter TBH.  LR models show some below average temps, but really the overall pattern doesn't favor many decent shots at storms through 2/17.  I mean, I'd take a late month storm, but not holding my breath and honestly after all this cloud cover, I am ready for spring and summer.

Shame it’s not a full moon tonight.  This is the kind of snow that looks like diamonds under a full moon.