Baroclinic Zone

I'm in agreement on an inside the BM track. I'd still feel pretty confident about mostly frozen with that track unless this comes up over CC.

laying the burn on

We laughed because you're awful at geography

A BM track with the antecedent airmass would be great for majority of the forum.

Yeah, that'd have you jumping off a bridge. I don't believe it but it's in the realm this far out.

Can we add the NAM?

NAM is the western envelope imo.

We should start seeing those outliers go bye-bye today.

That's s/w is strong, so I see no reason why the low won't be more tucked in to it.

I'd hope you have a car in mind to purchase and are ready to pay well over the sticker price.

Just looked at the 00z Euro and the SLP placement is definitely off from where the best forcing is. Looks like it should be about 50-75mi further W when looking at the 12z Friday panel. 06z GFS looks more like what I feel the Euro should look like. Now the question becomes, will this rip further W or will the W ridge help dampen that out and the storm rides up just offshore. Either way, the antecedent airmass looks damn frigid ahead of this storm, so I'd feel pretty good away from the coast for all snow. Even the coast would start as snow.

This cold blows.

Just waking up, my god, what a crushing on the GFS. All downhill.

Gonna see some Uber amped solutions 4 sure.

Wtf…

Yep. Just looking at upper levels and it was gonna

You rang?

Always gonna have the ML 20/30:1 ratios well north and west of low.

I ****ing hate the cold weather.

As @OceanStWx alluded to earlier, seems like all the sensitivity is due to the western ridge. Confindence of storm is 100%. Where and details to be ironed out.

So's Montreal....

Of course you use the Ensm but just want to make sure we're all looking at the same Op model output. Saying the Euro was weaker when it had a closed off circulation from the surface up through 700mb, is incorrect.

Disagree. The upper air pattern shifted, pushing the storm eastward. It was just as dymanic.

Euro was a 980mb low. I would not call that weak or weaker. 00z run had a 981mb low.

All downhill from that.