Baroclinic Zone

Run of the mill blizzard here. ~24".

And keep in mind that this is a mean snowfall graphic. Those are hefty numbers at this timeframe. Can still change but higher confidence threat for sure.

Feel better after seeing overnights runs.

Ray have a therapy session with Dr Phil? my god, losing his shit over model runs left and right.

glad we logged off for the last 2 of them.

On the prowl.

Agreed. I'm not saying to toss them, but to treat them with some skepticism until you have a trend develop over multiple cycles.

Just getting caught up. I agree with Tip. The 18z GFS/GEFS were a dramatic continuity shift from their 12z run. I'd wait to see what the 00z GFS/GEFS do before altering any ideas of the storm. The 18z EURO/EPS were less drastic and lend more credence right now but that can change in 6hrs. There is nothing to really hang on this far out other than watching the runs rolls in. Gotta wait another couple days to see how things look. Confidence is still high for a storm from what I see right now. I'd still be leery of a hugger given the southern origins and how we know they play out. Having a track over or S and E of the BM isn't a bad thing for a lot of the subforum.

9 times out of 10 it does.

Nope, see above

Yeah, I have no clue about named winter storms. I haven't turned on TWC since the 1990s.

I am skeptical of the Euro burying the s/w in the SW.

Yeah, that's why I posted earlier about the Euro about to go boom. You could just see it unfolding with the sharp trough with the s/w diving in on the backside. That thing went apeshit in no time. The ideal solution for eastern areas.

DAMN. 994 to 972mb in 6hrs

Geezus, welcome to like 8mo ago.

Euro about to go boom as s/w drops into the trough

0.00" in ASEMATT

Ramping up though.

Good run. Weaker and slightly E.

I agree with this logic. Result on western edge of this could leave a lot of people looking at white rain. I'd personally like to see the Ensm mean outside the BM on a S-N trajectory right now.

Beware the southern streamers.

Yeah, 0.10". 20.6F Still haven't cracked 10" for the season yet.

Best way to keep your sanity this week.