00z tonight is when I'd start leaning towards the OP runs of the globals. 60-72hrs from onset, we should see models narrowing the goalposts enough to rely on the ensembles less. Still out of range of the hires models.
I feel the same way with this setup. Ensm have been the way to go up till now I feel. The 00z runs should shake this out and determine if whatever was ingested into the 18z NCEP is real or not.
Why should/would I? You've annoyed quite a few posters today. Kept quiet but you've clearly lost it, now that it looks like this storm is largely a miss for you.
You're new here. Everyone already knows where I stand when it comes to snow. I've learned to tune out/ignore the 6hr mood swings and stick to the analysis, which I prefer when it comes to coastals.