Jebman

4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

@MN Transplant I think you’re right for TX. Based on my experience in 2017, the reduced solar will suppress convection for 2-3 hours centered on totality. Cumulus field totally dissipated in South Carolina in 2017 when I was there and reformed after. 
 

Still seems like best case for TX is for the storm/trough to be more consolidated and push through with force Sunday and clear behind on Monday. Trend on guidance though is for another shortwave to dump into the trough and get stuck near the 4 corners area. 

We usually get lots sun and are left wanting for rain, lol. Way of life here.

Famous last words...........

Don't look now  but even MORE snow at Mammoth!!!

https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge

It is REALLY starting to come down harder! This is beginning to remind me of two nights ago! These aggregates are getting FRACKING HUGE AGAIN!!!! These unbelievably huge flakes are so damned BIG, that you can see them individually on the lodge  roof! Man this place NEVER LETS YOU DOWN!!!

I have found a God to worship,  it is called Mammoth! They are ALWAYS GETTING ANNIHILATED BY SNOW!!!

7 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

and, if the CMC is right, PSU will have 6” of snow by the end of the week

Hug it. PSU will get 6-10 inches of new snow.

It hardly snowed at Mammoth or Palisades last night.

I am inconsolable. I am pining away for those RATES 38 hours ago.

I wubbed that heavy torrential snow in the Main Lodge lights SO MUCH!

I LOVE IT when the Sierras get down and PAR-TAY!!!

Uh oh snow is pickin on up at Mammoth again!

https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge

1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

Anyone know if it's snowing at Mammoth?

Right now, it's in a lull, but it may start back up later tonight.

You wanna see good snow at Mammoth?

Main Lodge has lights once it gets dark, but they turn those lights off at 3am Washington, DC time.

https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge

See also Woolly: https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam Woolly cam you can see a railing by the mammoth. Yesterday that puppy was fully exposed. Last night took good care of that, so damn much pow that it's almost covered up, now!

You should have seen that snow last night about 1am!!!!!! WOW man HUGE HUGE aggregates! Hardly any wind to speak of! It just POURED THE FOOK DOWN! I am tellin' you, it was like The Day After Tomorrow! If you looked at the Woolly cam, you could clearly see where the snow was piling up and I am telling you, those HUMONGOUS snowflakes were piling up like no one's bisnass! The Sierras don't play around! When they have blizzards they get down and partay!

They had a long TRAIN of serious serious Pacific moisture just training right down on Mammoth last night! It snowed HARD, it snowed BIG AS FOOK, some of those frackin' aggregates may have been fully TWO INCHES in diameter! It was 20 degrees! Everything was sticking! That snow was piling up FAST!

Palisades is starting to see an uptick in snow rates

https://www.palisadestahoe.com/mountain-information/webcams#tab=palisades

Last night at Mammoth. It is usually windy as hell. Not this time. It got windy later. But the snow was absolutely TORRENTIAL!!!! No wind. The freshies piled right up! I watched it! You could clearly see where the snow was getting deep as fook, especially on the Woolly cam! I have NEVER EVER seen The Village get hit by heavy snow like this! The Main Lodge cam showed aggregates at LEAST an inch and a half in diameter! The lights were on big-time! That snow was like a full-on Boston ccb in a fookin' triple phaser parked right on the 40/70 Benchmark and stalled out in a block, super-convoluted setup for the ages! It simply POURED DOWN, IN TORRENTS, and it piled the hell up! This is how Mammoth piled on another two feet of fresh pow overnight! I was GLUED to the camera ALL NIGHT LONG! It was NO. SLEEP. TIL. BROOKLYN. !!!!!!!!!

This snow was definitely IT! It was HUGE UNBELIEVABLE DENDRITES IN THE RESORT LIGHTS! It was extremely heavy, just decillions of HUGE aggregates piling on!

Mammoth got completely destroyed overnight with 24 inches of blower pow, ON TOP OF WHAT THEY ALREADY GOT PRIOR TO LAST NIGHT! It's a spectacular pow day! Massive powder face shots are everywhere and all the ski instructors are going totally bonkers! Talk about refills! It's a MAGNIFICENT DAY IN THE WHITE ROOM and you better strap on a snorkel! Always ski with a powder buddy and keep an eye on each other, especially off- piste! Tree wells are a serious concern today with fifteen feet of solid snowpack! Be wary of snow immersion accidents!

Snow has become absolutely TORRENTIAL at Mammoth! It is simply PILING UP! 8 INCHES and counting, with a hell of a LOT MORE SNOW to come! Heavy ridiculous amounts of moisture are TRAINING in from the south southwest, will pile on crazy amounts of new freshies overnight on into Saturday!!!!!

https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge

It is POURING SNOW at Mammoth !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

11 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Significant Miller B Nor'easter potential is signaled across Apr 3rd-4th ...

A chilly 850 mb anomaly is in position over SE Canada  ...infiltrated throughout the eastern GL and NE England regions, prior to a strong -NAO maxing over the western limb of the domain.

This aspect is situated while there is an undercutting trough of significant amplitude. Any kind of emergent trough is highly statistically correlated with this particular kind of -NAO expression, but below we see what really amounts to a phenomenally exquisite expression of that.  Given to the high correlation,  notwithstanding the "stable look" to this synoptic evolution ... confidence is quite high for at least the general set up.

Anomalously high baroclinic instability in situ despite the lateness of the date/spring season.  As the above mid and upper level events unfold over top that lower level temperature gradient ( see the 850 mb charts from the operational Euro/GFS/GGEM further above) ...  strong cyclogenesis is well within the realm of possibilities, and the only limitation on this as far as I can see given these rather elegantly, yet glaringly obvious precursor metrics is the fact that this above is about 144 to 156 hours away.  

Unfortunately ... confidence is only very high for an event. What that event's particulars will mean as far as specific impacts is still pending.  But sufficed it is to say ...this is a classic leading layout for late season snow impact.   What is also interesting about this - from a personal anecdotal/experience perspective, these spring storms tend to actually be modeled more marginal/warmer than this, at this sort of time range - only to tick colder as the time nears to a 'blue timber bender' storm.  This already has the look from all sources, and has been a recurrent theme over the past week. Dynamic height falls and just wholesale evolution of common winter metrics that are involved, snow would be a slam dunk.  It's worth it to follow this ...lest the new April thread has 900 pages by the 5th of the month...

I also am aware that interest in winter -related subject matter may be diminishing at this point. Seasonal awareness, along with just issue fatigue for having been abused so mercilessly over the last 4 months ( LOL )... but it is what it.  It is noted that the 00z Euro CCB's the hell out of interior and eastern SNE out of this ordeal.  It is also something that we haven't seen much of in recent years, a slower moving event.

 

 

 

 

Fixed.

Don't look now New Englanders but next weekend you might get utterly annihilated, completely destroyed by a major pattern change, massive amounts of snow!

7 hours ago, stormtracker said:

New England is gonna get crushed next week per the models.  Looks pretty interesting for them.   I posted this because we're all in on the who gives a fuck part of Spring.

I can hardly wait! I wish I could find some good high res webcams up there! I'd be GLUED to 'em for DAYS! I NEVER get enough of the snow!

Mammoth is getting DESTROYED right now! HUGE, HUGE aggregates!

https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge

Just wait til they switch on those lights! Then you'll see something!

Remember I told you guys I am YOUR one stop shop for everything snow?

Well, I am opening up a new chapter in the Andes, too!

Welcome to the Bergeralm webcams in the Andes! https://www.bergeralm.net/en/webcam/

Its the doggone base state. if I were wealthy, I'd not only be living at 11000 feet at Mammoth, I'd be following the snow round the globe even in our summer. I'd track it thru the Andes and even the Himalayas.

On 3/6/2024 at 7:46 AM, Eskimo Joe said:

I'll be in Alaska most of May. 

Enjoy the snow! Take some jebwalks, shovel some, pile it up! 

3 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

The GEFS has a convoluted set of solutions that indicate that anything beyond the 4th should be viewed very skeptically.  There is a trough entering the lower 48 on the 4th.  A fair number of the solutions dig the trough over the intermountain west, and then a following trough interacts with it and ejects it.  Unfortunately, that is a pretty rotten result for much of the eclipse path.  Hopefully it speeds up or slows down.

No surprise there. Everything else is pretty much going to pot. Might as well be the eclipse viewing too. Better yet, very hot and very humid in Austin, very thick clouds no rain at all, perpetuate the multi year drought while we are at it.

I won't be surprised, not one little bit.

What WILL surprise me, is I DO get to view the April 8th total eclipse in clear skies.

That's a decent trough though. This one won't die out like the others. It'll deepen, have storms on it, for Austin and all up and down the Path of Totality. Maybe even some accumulating snows on the northeastern end lol. Take an eclipse snow jebwalk! Now that's something you don't see every day.

Millions, even billions of people all jammed up together, obsessed with a once in a lifetime eclipse viewing. Every road in the Path is a parking lot, people are already fed the hell up with they cant get out, runnin outta gas, folks gonnabe fit to explode at the slightest issue! Thick clouds, even severe weather, winter storm warnings on the northeast end. Someone gets slighted, everyone is already mad as all hell at the entire world because the clouds are blocking the damned fooking eclipse all up and down the Path of Totality. Then we get the pissed off mobs, pissed off riots of the Total Eclipse of 2024. Good thing I wont be on the roads.

23 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Yep this is what I keep ranting about, it just never cools off at night anymore. It’s becoming almost impossible to even get a hard freeze IMBY. I mowed part of the yard every month this winter except January.

Another thing I’ve noticed just in the 11 years I’ve been here: the Daffodil bloom date has now solidly moved into February IMBY. It used to be March when we first moved in.

Same here in Texas. The new March Is February. Grass was 14 inches in places by Feb 18. Mower broke down, too. Worse, I strained my back BAD, got three weeks behind and the damn WEEDS took over moms numerous flowerbeds. Then came Bellator 304, the dogs got in a hideous fight on March 25 and I came off second best with a frightfully deep HUGE dog bite on my right leg. Obi Kenobi got me damn good. That small puppy keeps biting Obi's ear then we have a full-on Steve Irwin, Bear Grylls Animal Planet Jack London Call of the Wild free for all dog fight out on the Yukon ice as we try to get to Dawson by Spring. Not even John Thornton could help. Its a frightful din as five dogs pile into it. We are having a very early spring and the lawn and the weeds have gone full on Costa Rica on us. I am now WAY BEHIND and in serious leg pain, limping around like a Crip after a gang brawl. Every time we clean that horrible WOUND out it hurts like FUCK!. After the past 5 months it feels like my life has gone KEY BRIDGE.

My recent life is why it is never gonna snow again. That new base state is kickin my ass BAD! It's so damn HOT that our entire estate is a Jungle that would fuck up Tarzan. Now I can't do a thing because the base state made the dogs so hot they fight like Rocky Balboa and my leg is fvcked up but good, doc tells me, for a month. Death's my set. Guess my religion!

25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I wasn’t exaggerating. I terms of temps and snow since 2010 DC has had the climate we would expect from southern NC 

Damn. Charlotte, NC. I lived there for 18 months in 1974 to 1976. Ouch. Time to pull up roots and move to the northern Green Mountains. Or Alta, Utah.

That shiny new base state, is BAD!

On 2/12/2024 at 5:59 AM, snowfan said:

Some in the New England sub have been discussing this. They’re expecting gridlock in NNE parts of NY/VT/NH. 

I am gonnabe kickin back, enjoyin the eclipse then blasting Billy Joel tracks like Pressure while watching all the traffic with amusement.

2 hours ago, ice1972 said:

You sure about that chief?

Well we wont have mud. Central Texas didnt get stuck with feet of snow like the Northeast did this winter.

Sunshine and hell hot is something we are very, very good at. The southeasterlies set up, dews climb to prodigious heights then it gets nice and hot. And cloudless.

Most of Texas should be clear to maybe partly cloudy, should be pretty good eclipse weather.

Famous. Last. Words.

Watch us end up with a rare Gulf Low that clouds Austin up with heavy rain all damn day April 8, while the rest of the country gets wall to wall sunshine and an unseasonable heat wave lmao!

You know, somehow, I really wouldnt be surprised. I am OLD. This is my very last chance to see a total solar eclipse in America. I'm in bad shape. I will NOT see the 2040s. I will be very lucky to see 65.

Yeah, April 8 will be thick dark clouds in Texas, record rains with absolutely FRANTIC emergency water rescues, over four feet of rain in a 7 hour period in Travis and Hays Counties shattering records since the Civil War in the mid 19th Century. And I spend the entire day clinging desperately to a tree, screaming for help until I am fooking hoarse, while 57 foot deep waters rage all around me!

Connecticut will be sunny and cloudless with record hot weather, setting new 200 year records making me wish heartily I had gone to Connecticut to see the eclipse because Texas is so wet during a total eclipse from record rains from a 3500 mile long line of training thunderstorms. The ONE time in my whole life I never wanted rain in Texas ---- WE WILL GET IT -----

On April 8th, the Day of the Total Eclipse.

Bank on it. With serious interest.

Hey, there's still time for me to board a flight to Connecticut.

Come see the eclipse in Texas.

No mud.

No cloudy skies. 

Just wall to wall sunshine, beautiful 87/66 weather to witness the best eclipse of your life!

On 3/14/2024 at 10:13 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Here’s another theoretical question: if you had to choose between clear skies partial or complete cloudy totality, which do you pick?

I would charter a plane and go all-in on totality!