Jebman

3 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I didn’t think your area could even reach 90 on March 22. There are no guardrails anymore lol

Not sure what on earth is happening, but something is definitely up this summer.

Oh wait! It's early Spring!

WOW Dale City hit 84/54 today, in late March?!!!!

Dale City's normal temperatures are a high of 56, a low of 37 degrees.

This is going to be a VERY VERY hot summer! Some locations in the Mid Atlantic got hotter than Buda today which only managed to eke out mid 80s.

Mammoth is averaging 50s and 60s and the snow is getting very shallow all over. To all intents and purposes the jet stream is up north for good and it is now late spring early summer in the Sierra. Snowmelt is rapid and many resorts will be forced to close early. Earliest end to winter up there in a century.

2 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

Sausage, egg and cheese McMuffin is my morning road trip breakfast whenever I know I'm about to drive more than 3 hours. The sausage, egg and cheese biscuit from Chick Fil A is also pretty solid, but messier. 

I liked the Big Arch burger as far as fast food burgers go. It still cannot compare to a local spot, as you mentioned. Those are just another level of good. I'm a sucker for a Monday burger special

That McD fish sandwich is sooooooo good! I could easily scarf down about seven of them.

Chick fil A strips are my weakness. Those things are soooooo expensive. If I could afford it I'd get five 4 strip orders. I love Chick fil A strips better than a good Sierran 4 foot blizzard with 150mph wind gusts.

On 3/15/2026 at 11:10 AM, TSSN+ said:

Anyone else here into working out? Me and my fiance hit the gym 6 days a week and take what we eat seriously. Gym couple goals. 

Good for you!!!!! That's the BEST THING IN THE WORLD, two people love each other BIG-TIME!

1 hour ago, TimB said:

Pray for @RevWarReenactor. I have been tasked with the unpleasant duty of informing you all that he is currently in the hospital with a severe kidney stone episode that has possibly led to kidney failure after eating a Big Arch and it’s questionable if he’s going to make it. I know some in this sub don’t see eye to eye with him but he’s still human and some things transcend message board drama.

Definitely sending prayers and positive vibes, frequencies and energies his way. Need to get Reenactor healed right up.

Man it does not matter who it is, they need our prayers and/or best wishes!

Yeah. I have recently become one of those 5D Ascension Freaks.

I have totally given up hope for Mammoth. Only 8 long desolate months til Sierran Winter. I guess they only get snow from November to February.

I hate Global Warming. Fuck Fuck Fuck FUCK!

I was fooking CHEATED! Lucy is a hard hitter, especially in the Sierra.

Anyone heard about the entire lower Mississippi draining away thru deep fissures? Barge traffic is halted. Strait of Hormuz is not our only problem.

Look for many items to become highly expensive. Barge folks will use trucking and rail lines and it will cost big time, Guess who gets to pay it? All of us. Man, America is falling completely apart. Bridges over the Mississippi will collapse because they were never engineered for such low water levels. They are saying all the water draining away in the fissures beneath the Mississippi will make the New Madrid Fault let go at 10 plus on the Richter Scale.

Also, Sierras hitting 64/47 just like in high summer over there. Early snowmelt, NO WATER come Summer. NONE at all. In fact, it IS full Summer at Mammoth now. Steady state 60s for highs, upper 40s even 50s for lows! Hell they were warmer than we were in Buda two days ago!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sunday night we got slammed by a BAD front, wind gusts out of the north to 63 mph, and temps tumbled from 96 to 38 in a matter of 15 hours. Stuff got blown all over, lawn chairs, even the heavy ones got tumbled all over the place.

Yesterday we eked out 48 for a high. Dewpoint was 10. Last night we fell to 26. Fig leaves were damaged bad. I saved mom's tender new plants by building a framework then piling on thick blankets. The plants were successfully saved.

Normal high about 70, normal low about 52. Ha ha yesterday high couldnt even reach the normal minimum.

No complaints. It's gonnabe sizzling HOT come Friday, mid 90s.

Very sad. RIP Roger.

9 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

Was mentioning that last night to my colleague on the winter desk. Basically anything north of GB up into the U.P is going get clocked. I’d love to post up in Iron Mountain, MI right on the WI/MI border. Should see 2-3’ there. Marquette area and the Huron Mtns will probably see 3-5’ with the storm and additional LES. Insane storm for up there 

I wish there was a really good lighted live webcam there. I need a snow watching fix SO BAD and the Sierras are already in mid Spring. Damn damn damn!

6 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

90s in March is not the flex you think it is. 

You're right, its not. But low 90s in March is a lot better than having to deal with heavy snow and blizzard strength winds. I mean, you guys are definitely up to it, but I am aging and I can't any more. All I like to do now is watch it fall but that's it.

McHenry are you trying to tell me that Texas is going to have a very bad record hot summer this year?

I read in one of the AFDs that places to the north of I 94 may get 18-36 inches of snow.

I'm so jealous because I wanted my Uncle in La Crosse to have to shovel 2 feet of snow. Now he is only going to get maybe 8-14 inches with some sleet. Damn. I wanted him to get slammed with the 18-36 ha ha, then he has to dig snow. I was gonna call him up and brag about low 90s in south Texas while he breaks his back in deep snow with drifts on top of it.

1 minute ago, Baum said:

Unfortunately most of this board only heads up that way for summer holidays or sees it on a bottle of Summer Shandy.

Anyone up for a road trip? That's a LOT of snow!

The upper Midwest storm will have a cold front that will smash hard into south Texas Sunday night with 63 mph gusts. Sunday we will hit the low 90s.

On 3/12/2026 at 9:17 PM, MillvilleWx said:

Historic actually. They will eclipse or come very close to some 24hr monthly records, as well as breaking some multi-day snowfall accumulations across portions of WI.

I tried. I REALLY tried not to post this, but this storm is SO intriguing.

029
FXUS63 KMPX 141100
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
600 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- POWERFUL WINTER STORM ARRIVES TODAY with the first radar
  echoes entering southwestern MN this morning. Peak intensity
  expected later this evening through Sunday with travel
  conditions becoming dangerous to impossible. Winter Storm
  Warning upgrades to Blizzard Warning for southwest to southern
  MN at 9am Sunday.

- FORECAST UPDATES: A slight bump northward in area, but no
  other significant changes. High confidence in widespread
  8``+ with most ending up somewhere within 10-16`` and the
  highest amounts of 20``+. Highest likelihood of highest
  amounts from SE MN to western WI.

- BLIZZARD CONDITIONS expected to begin Sunday morning across
  southwestern MN as winds increase, with peak gusts of 40-50mph
  in addition to falling snow resulting in whiteout conditions
  for several hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Keeping the theme of the prior discussion and due to the nature of
the forecast, the discussion will be split up into a few sections.

OVERVIEW...

Our previously advertised winter storm will arrive today and there
has been relatively little change to the ongoing forecast with the
main differences being a slight bump northward in the highest band
of snowfall and an upgrade to a Blizzard Warning for Sunday across
southwestern Minnesota. The highest amount are generally expected
within the eastern half of the area stretching from the Twin Cities
through western WI and towards the UP. QPF within the heaviest hit
area could approach 2 inches and based on forecast snow ratios of
around 10:1, this is expected to result in snow amounts approaching
20+ inches in western Wisconsin. The `lower` QPF of 0.75-1 inch in
central Minnesota will likewise result in lower accumulations but
still easily Winter Storm Warning 6+ inch level, with far southern
Minnesota possibly seeing a bit of freezing precipitation mixing in
initially primarily in the form of sleet. The slight northward bump
in guidance would place the heavy footprint through the heart of the
Twin Cities metro, although further wobbles are possible until the
system is fully underway based on how various sets of guidance have
performed this winter. Travel conditions will rapidly deteriorate,
becoming dangerous later this evening as snow rates intensify and
next to impossible on Sunday as winds increase alongside continued
snowfall. The storm looks to exit Sunday night with travel
conditions remaining hazardous into Monday as winds continue to gust
and produce blowing snow. If it all possible, we highly recommend
avoiding all travel on Sunday during the worst of the storm and
doing what you can to stay safe.

NOW THROUGH WHEN SNOW ARRIVES...

The previously mentioned `ribbon` of moisture riding the strong
upper level jet is evident on GOES water vapor imagery this morning
spamming from Oregon/Washington state through the northern US and
riding the ridge southeast towards the area. This upper level jet
will slide eastwards towards the area with a relatively broad right
entrance/upper level divergence region reinforcing ongoing light
precipitation by the afternoon. Radar echoes are already spanning
from central South Dakota through central Iowa along the lower level
baroclinic zone ahead of the developing surface low which is
situated underneath the synoptic forcing of the upper level jet over
the northern Rockies as of now. As we move forward in time towards
this evening, the baroclinic zone will slowly progress northwards as
the surface low becomes evident over northeastern Colorado and the
upper level jet places a broad right entrance region over Minnesota
and Wisconsin by around 6-7pm. Snow is expected to begin during the
afternoon as these two features meet, starting out relatively light
but rapidly intensifying as the surface low continues to strengthen
and the upper level trough begins to dig as they depart the eastern
Rockies. Snow will become heavy during the evening and continue to
remain heavy overnight into Sunday as the trough continues to dig
taking on a negative tilt with further intensification of the
surface low which looks to track across Iowa towards the southern
tip of Lake Michigan. Guidance isn`t completely set on the exact
track of the surface low, which is why there are still some wobbles
north/south expected until it arrives, however our area looks to
firmly plant itself within the north/northwest quadrant of the
system in prime position to see heavy snowfall.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...

Heavy snow will be ongoing as we approach midnight across most of
the area, with a bit of sleet possibly mixing in across far southern
Minnesota where the 850mb baroclinic zone could edge just far enough
northwards to introduce a warm nose, evident within model forecast
soundings across the I-90 corridor by around 5-6am. The DGZ is
shallower farther to the south/closer to the center of the low,
which should allow for at least a few hours of sleet or a wintry mix
of snow/sleet until enough precipitation falls to cool the warm nose
back down below freezing and transitioning the column back to snow.
The northward extent of the warm nose is one of the key points of
uncertainty yet remaining within the system as in general the
GFS/GEFS model suite pushes the warm nose as far north as Mankato
while the steady ECMWF/EPS/AIFS bring it only to the MN/IA border,
which would keep the p-type as primarily snow throughout. Regardless
of how much ice falls, we still anticipate warning level snowfall
even across this region despite lower snowfall rates and missing the
heaviest band of snowfall, which should set up farther north.

Speaking of the heaviest band of snowfall, the slight northward bump
would place it squarely across the Twin Cities Metro and into
western Wisconsin by sunrise on Sunday with the highest QPF 6 hour
window from roughly 1am to 7am. Snowfall rates could exceed 2 or
even 3 inches/hr at times during this window as the upper level
trough continues to dig and begins to negatively tilt and surface
low tracks closer to the area. Forecast soundings show the thermal
profile just a tad warmer than your typical DGZ which resides from
roughly -10 to -20C, which makes sense given that higher QPF winter
storms often struggle to produce snow ratios above 12 or 15 to 1, as
internal studies at MPX has shown in the past. Snow ratios are
expected to hover from 8/10 to 1 during this window, which looks to
produce 6-8 inches of snowfall within the heaviest band during these
6 hours alone. As time progresses past sunrise and the trough
continues to dig/surface low continues to strengthen, continuous
heavy snowfall is expected to continue through the rest of the
morning until the surface low moves far enough east to bring the
heaviest rates towards northern WI around midday. By the afternoon,
snow should begin to taper off from west to east as the surface low
and upper level trough both slide to the east, with light snow
lingering into the late evening across eastern Minnesota and into
early Monday morning in western WI.

As the surface low is displaced a bit farther away from the
immediate area during the afternoon and into the evening, winds are
expected to increase due to a strengthening surface pressure
gradient resulting from further intensification of the system as it
moves eastwards, with wind gusts ranging from as high as 45-55mph in
southern Minnesota tapering towards 30-40mph in the Twin Cities and
25-35mph in central Minnesota. This will result in further dangerous
travel even as snow begins to weaken due to blowing, coupled with
snow ratios generally increasing as the snow weakens as the entire
atmospheric column cools northwest of the surface low. The gusty
winds and blowing snow look to continue into Monday, making cleanup
all the more difficult on top of the sheer amount of snowfall
expected. The upgrade to a BLIZZARD WARNING for portions of
southwestern and southern Minnesota is due to the increasingly gusty
winds on top of falling snow, with the warning beginning in the late
morning Sunday and lingering into Monday. We would not be surprised
to see a Monday morning commute that is incredibly slow due to
ongoing snow removal efforts being hindered by the blowing snow and
gusty winds, which will gradually weaken throughout the day Monday.

Snow will end early Monday morning as the upper level trough axis
progresses through the area with subsidence rapidly filling in
behind the departing surface low with a 1030mb high forming by
Monday evening. Winds will also be weakening significantly by this
point, with quiet conditions once again returning as the system
continues to move eastwards towards the Atlantic Coast.

BEHIND THE SYSTEM...

We will not see a prolonged period of quiet weather behind the
system as another albeit much weaker hit of snow is expected late
Tuesday into Wednesday as another upper level jet slides into the
region dragging a low level baroclinic zone through. The setup is
obviously much weaker than the previous system and also much more
transient with a 12 hour window of light snow resulting in another
potential inch or two spanning Tuesday night through late morning
Wednesday. This event wraps up quickly replaced by somewhat stagnant
weather with no strong systems through the remainder of the week.
NBM tries to rebound temperatures back into the mid to upper 40s by
Friday, however this may be optimistic given the expected new/deep
snowpack and as such we may end up in the low 40s instead. The key
factor in snowmelt will not only be hours of sun during the day but
also if we stay above freezing at night, thus cloud cover will be
the thing to watch towards the later half of the week to see just
how warm we end up.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 552 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Starting the TAF VFR at all locations but we are not going to
stay that way as eventual -SN becomes SN with IFR across all
sites as a powerful winter storm enters the region today. A
prolonged period of SN to +SN is expected which will rapidly
lower CIGS to IFR within the first 3-4 hours of snow falling,
remaining IFR with periods of LIFR likely as visibility drops
below 1/4sm with snow rates exceeding 1 in/hr. There is also the
possibility of SNPL or even sleet in southern Minnesota, which
is included in the MKT TAF but how far north the mix goes
remains to be seen. Right now the highest confidence is that
snowfall rates will be intense enough for all sites north of MKT
that we will remain only snow throughout the event. Winds
increase from 080-110 throughout, eventually becoming sustained
at 15-20kts gusting to 30-35kts with further increases to wind
speeds beyond the end of the period.

KMSP...Elected to not include a mention of SNPL or sleet this
morning although it is possible this far north. Guidance
yesterday evening and overnight is slightly farther north
compared to previous runs, however we have seen this trend
before this winter only for them to return to a more consensus
southerly track as the system arrives. For now, the chance for a
wintry mix as opposed to pure snow is around 10-15%, with a
period limited to around 3 to 4 hours from roughly 06 to 12z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...Chance AM IFR BLSN. Wind NW 10-15G30kts.
TUE...VFR, -SN/MVFR late. Wind NW to S 5kts.
WED...VFR. Wind SW 5kts.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

To provide some historical context to the snowfall forecast for this
weekend, here are the 10 largest observed single storm snowfalls in
the Twin Cities recorded history (1884-present) as collected by the
MN State Climatology office.

1.  28.4 inches: 1991 October 31 - November 3 (Halloween Blizzard)
2.  21.1 inches: 1985 November 29 - December 1 (Thanksgiving Weekend)
3.  20.0 inches: 1982 January 22 - 23
4.  17.4 inches: 1982 January 20 - 21
5.  17.1 inches: 2010 December 10 - 11 (Domebuster)
6.  16.8 inches: 1940 November 11 - 13 (Armistice Day)
7.  16.7 inches: 1985 March 3 - 4 (Largest March snowstorm)
7.  16.7 inches: 1940 March 10 - 14
9.  16.5 inches: 1982 December 27 - 28
10. 16.0 inches: 1917 January 20 - 21
10. 16.0 inches: 1999 March 8 - 9

&&

One of these years is gonna come a truly historic day when everyone in this sub is gonna find themselves standing in intense snow rates with about 30 inches of snow on the ground as strong northeasterlies blow huge aggregates right past the streetlights and the TROWAL refuses to even move an inch as an historic benchmark low gets fully stacked up and captured and everything comes to a halt in record 15,000 year trowal snows from Penhook to Philly, from West Virginia right down to the Eastern Shore! And many of you are forced to crawl out second and even third story windows just to get out of the damn house because of unbelievable drifting that will overtop many structures.

23 hours ago, dailylurker said:

I give it a golden winter award. Top 5 winter of my 47 year life. I was shocked yesterday when I was standing in intense snowfall rates. When the lightning streaked across the sky that was it. We received a golden winter award. 

THIS.

Thought I'd see a few more folks up in here given the nature of heavy snow in 24-30 hours in some portions of your overall region. Two feet of snow alongside strong winds, whiteouts and considerable drifting is nothing to sneeze at, lol.

Them conditions are kinda like some you might find in the high Sierra. Places like Palisades Tahoe and Mammoth Mountain Resort.

On 3/9/2026 at 12:39 PM, cyclone77 said:

Yeah winter (afa snow) died back on Dec 8th for this area.  Next meaningful snow 8+ months away.

MLI now 11.5 inches down below avg.

Love your Flickr photos. You sure get some interesting weather up there!

I was getting my daily weather readings and just noticed west central Wisc where my Uncle lives may get shellacked just before my Mar 16 birthday. Could be west central MI might get well over two feet.

Congrats. Hope it overperforms BIG!

5 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

Snow should fly today, but sticking and accumulating will be a whole other story. Will be cool to see after some 80° days. It’s not super uncommon. Just too marginal with warm grounds to amount to anything. Snow tv at its finest

We have got to somehow get this thing to stall over us with the snows. And pop a developing low off NC, and slowly move NNE and plaster the sub with a TROWAL of torrential, Glorious snow!

5 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

Jeb it was nearly 90F here today lol.

I know I just went thru all my weather readings. Even farther north temps have been very warm for the date.

For example

That's the high and low then the dew point then the actual temp/DP spread then the average high/low then the rain so far then the sunset

Indiana, PA 71/56 DP58 59/58 (44/27) 5.00 7.18
Binghamton, NY 71/57 DP56 62/56 (38/22) That high and low is 33 and 35 degrees above normal!! 6.85 7.05

Something is very wrong with the weather. It is unusually hot down here too. Mom is making me plant plants very early.

ARE YOU KIDDING ME, DALE CITY??????? You guys hit 87 degrees today?

Man global warming is getting BAD. That's 37 degrees ABOVE AVG for this date!

I really hope against hope that Fall 2026 is one of the very WORST SUPER NINOs on Record. Maybe a ten billion year Super Nino.

I want rain so bad now, I wish we would get a Harvey that would be located about 50 miles southwester from Buda and spin for four weeks, pulling truly Brobdingnagian amounts of moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico, with persistent rain rates in excess of 3 inches per hour for days on end. I don't care how many people are impacted. I want my waters so bad.

I crave rain so bad. I want quagmires 20 feet deep! I would not mind 600 inches between Sept 2026 and April 2027.

Every storm is missing us. We're so desperate. Dallas has had 9 inches already. I've seen this before. We are heading right into a Super 2011, hell heat and absolutely no meaningful rain to be had.