Jebman

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Baby Terpeast was born this morning, and both he and Miss Terpeast are doing well. Thanks for all the support and kind words (and the laughs from all these shoe jokes). And there was about 1.5” on the ground when I had a chance to go outside and get our stuff for the overnight hospital stays. Which is the same as the local Ashburn report for LWX. Looked like a real winter wonderland outside the 4th floor window. Today was a great day! 

Congrats on a perfect day! Best wishes for your family into the future!

On 11/30/2025 at 8:47 PM, George BM said:

Thursday, December 4, 2025 3:58PM EST

Extreme Cold, High Wind and Blizzard warnings are in place across the region in anticipation of the historic storm about to commence over the region. This storm will have many similarities to the Great Appalachians Storm of late November 1950 except the whole setup will be shifted east by a few hundred miles.

…

Nestor will continue to be absorbed into the large surface low deepening off the Carolinas over the next 12 hours or so as a result of the deep and record cold trough and embedded shortwave approaching the coast. Temps have already fallen into the teens northwest of I-95 and will fall through the night into the low to mid-single digits areawide on strong NNW winds gusting to around 40 to 50 mph. This will bring windchills down into the -20 to -30F range in the greater DC metro area, hence the Extreme Cold Warning in place.

As the night wears on the large upper-level trough will start to cutoff as the shortwave rounding the base of said trough takes on a strongly negative tilt. This will result in the surface low deepening explosively as it begins to track to the northwest back towards the Mid-Atlantic coastline. This will throw snow back into our region from east to west through the predawn hours reaching the Blue Ridge by sunrise.

Friday, December 5^th and Saturday, December 6^th will be two days that are remembered for the long time in these parts. As the surface low continues to deepen bands of very heavy snow will be thrown west across the region as NNW winds gust over 60 mph areawide with some gusts pushing 75 mph in the mountains and near the coast of the Chesapeake Bay and the Potomac River. Temperatures will remain in the 0 to 5F range throughout the day as well, meaning windchills will be as low as -25 to -30F. Snowfall rates of 3 to 4 inches per hour will be common leading to whiteout conditions. The snow, cold and wind combo will make even being outside very dangerous if not adequately bundled up for the elements.

The heaviest snow and highest winds will last through the late evening and into the early overnight hours. But the storm will be long from done. The surface low will stall and spin over or just off of the Delmarva allowing blizzard conditions with heavy snow and strong winds to continue throughout the day on Saturday. Temps on Saturday may actually warm into the double-digits… generally 10-15F raising windchills into the -5 to -15F range. It won’t be until late Saturday night into Sunday morning when the surface low rotates to the east and out to sea allowing the snow to taper off from west to east throughout the night.

Snowfall totals:

Snowfall totals will be truly historic and life-altering with 45-65” being commonplace across the Greater Metro area. However, owing to the high winds and the low water content of the snow, snow drifts may be as high as 35 feet burying homes and businesses underneath the snow.

Winds:

Winds gusts will peak in the 60 to 70 mph range (locally 75 mph) from Friday afternoon through about midnight (12am) Saturday but will continue gusting over 50 mph through Saturday evening.

Temperatures:

Temperatures will fall into the lower single digits late tonight and hold steady within a few degrees of this through predawn Saturday before rising into the lower teens by Saturday afternoon.

George BM this one was a doozy! DC will need an army to dig all this snow!

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Final total 3". Wintry scene out there. Skunk ratter off the table. 

 

 

Massive congrats and a resounding WOOOOOOOOOO----HOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!

1 hour ago, BlizzardNole said:

Welp, we got snow on Dec. 5 in 2002 and 2009 and those winters turned out pretty good 

And look at some of the winters ending in a 6:  1966, 1996, 2016...

A Dec 5th snow means a very good snow year! This is only the beginning! The winter will remember December!

Congrats to all that are getting snow!

Wow 2nd northern band right over my old stomping grounds! I insist on the old HoCo/MoCo band. Look, it may not exactly be Snowmageddon up in here this round, but that band could easily boom them to 4 inches! Look at that -2, possibly even -3 FGEN! WOW is that a -4 over Penhook? Look out Bob Chill! If Dale City booms out to 4 inches, I'll do a stand in for Playboi Carti like I stated earlier tonight. I know most his raps by heart and worship all his tracks. Same for Ken Carson and Kodak Black.

Someone is gonna jackpot up there!

3 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

I’m off to oversleep and miss the heavy snow band!

This is quite likely the very BEST signature line I have ever seen on this sub in YEARS! LMAO!

1 minute ago, Rhino16 said:

I’m off to oversleep and miss the heavy snow band!

Good for you! My late Dad always told me there is more to Life than cold and snow and foolishly piling it up.

33 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Off to get a nap, will report back later.

Rest/Playing catch-up on sleep deprivation during a snow FUTILITY MARKERS...

So many times, when I lived in Dale City - I'd catch a nap during a storm. 1) Oversleep, mainly from way too much watching of the models, and 2) This is invariably the time when the heavy snow band wrecked Dale City - RIGHT WHEN I WAS FAST ASLEEP.

Plenty of post-nap anger and disillusionment, over missing the heavy dendrites.

More will be added.

It's best to overdose on coffee and uppers if necessary. Do whatever it takes to stay awake until the very last flake has fallen. Snow in the Mid Atlantic is RARE. Last ten seasons have been instructive. Otherwise, sleep like Rip van Winkle, wake up in 2037 then head for Mammoth Mountain Ski resort. It snows HARD for days and days as most of the moisture in the greater Pacific Ocean falls as snow there and winds gust over 100 mph at times. You'll get your fix and you won't be jonesing as bad for snow. Better yet, MOVE there, sleep all you want. They get 400 inches each season.

You won't regret this! https://www.mammothmountain.com/

On 12/1/2025 at 8:25 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

I am staying retired for now, but I reserve the right to return like prime MJ if things start to get ugly. I’m watching you.

All of you.

Reapers NEVER retire. You need to be posting every day. You are The Reaper. You are out of retirement and back on the Beat, effective right now.

Because it's not snowing in the Sierra and I am eying The Ledge.

20 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

700mb frontgen is entering the southern parts of our region were now at Nowcasting time!

Also some weird line of 850 frontgen over NOVA that has been strengthening over the past couple hours. Anyone know whats up with that?

That's the HoCo/MoCo super deathband.

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

Is that good 

Likely dry air aloft. But this storm will saturate the column and bring plowable snows.

10 minutes ago, bncho said:

Yes, I know it's 90 %tile, but I just don't understand how this is even remotely possible.

If Dale City gets 4 inches I'm Playboi Carti.

1 minute ago, Ji said:

What? Zwyts got banned? He is a legend. Bring him back

Free zwyts at once! He goes waaaaaay back!

3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

My baby son is due tomorrow morning, so it may very well be that we'll be driving through the snow on slippery roads to get to the hospital. It won't take much snow to make the roads dicey especially with cold temperatures overnight. Fortunately it's only a 10 minute drive and we'll give ourselves extra time to get there. 

Will probably be busy over the next couple of weeks, but I'll try to pop in here if there's something else to track.

May it snow tomorrow and everyone gets at least 1"!

Congrats! The stoke is high over the arrival of our latest snow weenie!

The Name of this thread is classic.

12 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z HRRR: precip starts moving in by 6 am.

This would have been a great time for a Charles Town trip. Win big and score big!

On 11/11/2025 at 9:40 AM, katabatic said:

Went to Blackwater Falls this morning. Just so damn beautiful. When people talk about their happy place, this is mine.

I'll never forget when you went to Donners Pass and experienced the Reality of eleven feet of fresh snow! You got to watch the entire event, too!

Well I must admit that down here in south central Texas, I am indeed experiencing very refreshing breezes with mid 40s ambient temps and gusts out of the North to 32 mph. We got the cold front last night and I was so damned excited, just like back in the 10th Grade, that I snuck out on Main Street at 3am in a soaked t-shirt and swimming trunks. I am VERY glad I did not see any cops. They'd have locked me right up. Took a short ceremonial jebwalk. It has been so damn HOT down here. It was 48 at the time amidst northerly winds to 47 mph. No one was around. Sane people were in bed with twenty blankets on. Not the Jebman. I LOVE winter breezes!

I got my fix and no one saw me.

Congrats on the snow! Looking forward to your reports deeper on into this winter, should be a good one up in those parts.

21 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Right .  Even though they beat Chicago almost every year. This time, Chicago gets the headstart. 

All things aside, very winter like storm for november. We are getting snow from a low tracking to our west.

Should be  pretty good year for ya!

5 hours ago, Powerball said:

 

I remember watching it live.

The best part about it? That was actually a massive forecast bust. In the run up to the game, only maybe 1-3" at best was expected befoe it transitioned to rain (of course, by the time they realized the forecast was going to be a bust, they were already too far into the game to postpone it).

Best game ever...

Dad and I watched it on tv back when it all happened. Damn I was really jonesing for snow because of it.

4 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

bah, let them play.

snow football is the best football, and it definitely was as a kid.

Now THIS, is SNOW FOOTBALL..... Looks like they were playing in at least 9 inches of snow...

Need to watch it on YouTube but it's definitely worth a look...

This out of Des Moines AFD

393
FXUS63 KDMX 282347
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
547 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Prolonged snowfall through Saturday has begun in the west
  early this afternoon. Significant snowfall amounts of 8 to 12"
  are expected through Saturday evening, with some locally
  higher amounts possible.

- Gusty winds behind the snowfall may lead to blowing and
  drifting of fresh snowpack on Saturday night.

- Much colder temperatures move in on Sunday, with wind chills
  in the single digits above and below zero.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

The well-advertised winter storm for this weekend is now knocking on
our doorstep early this afternoon. The responsible wave is now
making it`s way over the Rockies, with surface low pressure building
over the plains. Pressure gradients are tightening in response to
this, increasing southerly flow and beginning to stream gulf
moisture northward. Weak frontogenesis on the periphery of the
building low pressure is currently producing radar returns
(snow) over eastern Nebraska, western Iowa and up into the
Dakotas where a lobe of better upper level moisture is also
present. This precipitation is combating some drier air below
and struggling to reach the ground, although surface
observations and MPING reports are already beginning to report
snow over the western portions of Iowa.

As we progress through this afternoon, this precipitation aloft will
slowly drift east and continue to saturate down through the dry
layer beneath. At the same time, increasing low level moisture
transport and theta-e advection will begin to lift northward ahead
of the building surface low, giving this area of precipitation the
extra push it needs to reach the surface. This will mark the
beginning of our prolonged period of snowfall over the state.
Precipitation coverage will initially be focused under this
initial lobe of weak frontogenesis and theta-e advection.
However, as the 500 mb wave continues toward the central CONUS,
and deepens into a pronounced trough, the building surface low
pressure will close off and lift toward the state. This will
bring strong isentropic lift up into Iowa, causing the
precipitation to expand over the entirety of the state
throughout the day Saturday.

Snowfall amounts have continued the upward trend this shift, now
increasing southward and slightly eastward. The expectation is still
that most of the area will see amounts in the 8 to 12" range, with a
band of higher amounts up to 15". This heavier band likely won`t be
widespread, but instead in the "Venn diagram" where the heavier
snow from the theta-e wing tonight meets with the heaviest
rates from the actual low pressure passage tomorrow. This area
of higher (13"+) amounts varies somewhat from run-to-run and
model-to-model, causing NBM to produce a fairly large area of
13"+ values in the forecast. Generally, the expectation is still
for these higher amounts to be along interstate 80 and north,
favoring the eastern portions of the forecast area. Of course,
once you reach a certain point with snow amounts, it becomes
more nitpicky than impact-driven. This prolonged snowfall is
going to create travel impacts for most of the area on Saturday,
whether your location ends up on the higher or lower end of
that spread. Likewise, areas that only briefly cross through the
heavier bands will still see periods of 1"/hr rates or higher,
which will lead to visibility reductions.

Farther south in the state, there is still some question on snowfall
amounts as warmer surface temperatures attempt mix rain with the
snow. However, with the slight southwestward trend in higher
amounts, have seen an increase in forecasted snow totals over
southwestern Iowa. For this reason, have upgraded a few counties in
southwestern Iowa from the advisory to a winter storm warning. It`s
still possible the warm air wins out in these areas, but model
soundings indicate the surface warm layer will be extremely shallow
and wetbulb temperatures only around 33 to 34 F at their warmest. It
stands to reason that heavier rates will be able to overcome this
shallow warm layer, and snow through it. Dynamic cooling of the
layer may occur as well, as snow falls an melts (removing heat from
the air) but southerly flow/warm air advection will work to negate
this cooling. Given this delicate balance, this area definitely has
the most uncertainty in snow amounts. In addition to this rain/snow
mix, there may also be a brief period early Saturday morning where
ice introduction is lost and freezing rain/drizzle develops. This
seems to be a fleeting threat and significant accumulations aren`t
expected. However, be on the lookout for isolated patches of ice in
southwestern Iowa.

The heaviest snowfall rates should be wrapping up around the early
evening in our forecast area with lingering light snow lasting till
about 10 pm to midnight. While the falling snow should be improving
through this timeframe, there is a growing signal for wind gusts
increasing to around 25 to 35 mph behind the cold front late
Saturday afternoon and evening. These winds should primarily be
displaced from the heavier snowfall rate that are associated with
the warmer portion of the system, but a brief phasing of falling
snow and increasing winds could lead to reduced visibilities into
Saturday evening. Likewise, fresh snowpack/loose snow on the ground
will be susceptible to blowing/drifting around. This blowing snow,
in conjunction with snow still on the ground, will prolong travel
impacts into Saturday night and early Sunday morning. Winds/gusts
will then diminish through Sunday morning.

High pressure and colder air fills in behind the system on Sunday,
dropping temperatures over the area. Wind chills on Sunday morning
will be near and below zero, making for quite chilly conditions for
anyone getting up to move snow on Sunday morning. These cold
temperatures and wind chills continue through the first part of the
week, with highs on Sunday and Monday only reaching the upper teens
to low 20s and overnight lows falling into the single digits Monday
and Tuesday mornings. Wind chills through this same time will be
quite cool in the single digits above and below zero. Of note,
another system looks to clip the state on Monday into Tuesday,
bringing additional snow chances to the area. Fortunately, amounts
look marginal compared to this weekend`s system, with ensemble
probabilities showing a roughly 50 to 60% chance for an inch or
more of snow in southern Iowa and only a 30 to 40% chance for
two inches or more. Additional details on the early week system
will be provided in the coming days.

10 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Down to 31 with light snow! 

Might want to get a snow gun and make artificial snow while the getting's good!