Jebman

Central Texas is done for. Some places will get 12 inches of rain by 7pm tonight.

It has been good knowin' y'all.

Ground is saturated. That much rain is apocalyptic. 

If you can, get out of central Texas while you still can. Fly far away from the absolute devastation to come. Our time has run out.

I am poor. I will perish here. No way out. None at all.

Time to head for the mountains, like Mammoth mountain. Western Ski resorts will continue to pile up snow. Sierran cordillera DGAF about warming. They will pile up devastating amounts of snow anyway and avalanches will pile up still more.

There's no shortage of snow at western ski resorts. They badly need more manpower to keep those roads there clear.

Here we go again. Worse, Kerr County and Kerrville may get the dreaded 9 inches of additional rain anytime between now and 7pm tomorrow. Soils are waterlogged. In Kerr County soils are thin underlain by rock. Any rain will runoff and trigger flooding because of soaked antecedent conditions.

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
703 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

TXZ171>173-183>192-202>206-131500-
/O.CON.KEWX.FA.A.0006.000000T0000Z-250714T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Kinney-Uvalde-Medina-Bexar-
Comal-
Including the cities of Hondo, Uvalde, Kerrville, Burnet, Del
Rio, Fredericksburg, Boerne, Bandera, San Antonio, Georgetown,
Brackettville, Blanco, Rocksprings, Llano, Leakey, Austin, New
Braunfels, and San Marcos
703 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Locally heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding across
  portions of south central Texas. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches
  with isolated amounts near 9 inches are possible.

* WHERE...A portion of south central Texas, including the following
  counties, Bandera, Bexar, Blanco, Burnet, Comal, Edwards,
  Gillespie, Hays, Kendall, This rainfall along with saturated soils will lead to rapid
    runoff.

11 hours ago, wxdude64 said:

Yep, starting to worry a bit about the 'maters here too. Hoping for a few drier days. On a side note, this HAS to be the best my grass has looked in 20 plus years for this time of summer. 

I know what you mean. Central Texas in near mid July, lawn looks like early April. Mower still on the Fritz. This place is gonna get so overgrown its gonnabe a jungle and I will change my name on here to JurassicMan.

14 hours ago, coolio said:

I logged just under 2" in my unscientific tall shot glass on my deck. Also, the ground was really dry as my sump pump was not running this am. Usually, this amount of precip makes it run for a while. 

First class observation.

On 7/3/2025 at 8:29 PM, snowfan said:

Nice day at Dewey including a low pass by a C 17, a shark sighting along the surf, and Dewey beer’s new island retreat stout, which is fabulous. 
 

 

This is ALL-TIME sig material.

5 hours ago, 87storms said:

Went to get a practice sesh in at a local court and ended up playing 1v1 and then a couple games of 2s.  The ice water I drank when I got home was a religious experience.

We are in the midst of one of the more powerhouse humidity-laden summers in recent memory, certainly since that 2017-2018 combo.

This.

Congratulations, Dale City!!!!

You guys have just crossed the 30-inches of rain Line! Here's to 40, even 50 inches! You guys are gonna get drowned by several major tropical cyclones this season! Hey, Let's make it 90 inches this summer/fall!

38 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Just walked down to the mailbox and can hear the constant rumbling in the distance. Clouds out ahead of it look kinda cool and a bit eerie.

That means the storm will be intense. I am no meteorologist but those clouds ahead of that storm mean bisnass.

1 hour ago, Scraff said:

Hi I’m @JiWhere the hell are these afternoon soakers in January and February!? 

They are waiting for January and February,  only in 2026 they will be torrential snow. And they will pile up!

Congratulations  everyone!

We got hit down here too, 1.7 inches.

This is very bad. No more hurricane data.

https://www.tpr.org/environment/2025-06-28/defense-department-will-stop-providing-crucial-satellite-weather-data

Grasses down here are greener than emerald treasures in the old Egyptian tombs that are newly discovered that looters have never gotten to. This is not July 7 Central Texas.  This is APRIL 7 Central Texas. 

BEWARE the rain BLOB just to the north. It's sagging south and here we go again, gonna get Kerr Countied. Stay far away from all creeks. The Ground is saturated. Every bit of precip will run off and pile up. 

I got a bad bad left knee. I can't run from the rising waters. They will casually carry me away, it's been really nice knowin' y'all as the Jebman becomes the Floodman.

I am not a flood chaser. The flood is chasing me!

I am seriously Indiana Jonesing for the Valley of The Kings in Egypt, but will likely get Waterworlded instead.

Dammit it's raining again. The radar is getting busy again. There goes my precious  95 degree day! I sure hope we aren't the ones who get stuck with ten more inches!

OK folks. We actually sighted the Sun today. We ALMOST hit 90. Hardly any rain, getting all excited about Monday, SUN WITH EGYPT-LIKE SUMMER CONDITIONS! Man I'll go out and jebwalk, pretend to be looking for hieroglyphic inscriptions at Amarna! I was SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO STOKED!

Then my heart was shattered by the latest from NWS.

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1146 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

TXZ171>173-184>194-203>208-071800-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FA.A.0005.250707T0446Z-250708T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-Gillespie-
Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Uvalde-Medina-Bexar-Comal-
Guadalupe-Caldwell-
Including the cities of Llano, Fredericksburg, Bastrop, Uvalde,
Blanco, Georgetown, Lockhart, Bandera, Austin, Rocksprings, San
Antonio, Boerne, Hondo, New Braunfels, Seguin, Leakey, Kerrville,
San Marcos, Giddings, and Burnet
1146 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. Local
  rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with 10 inches possible.

* WHERE...A portion of south central Texas, including the following
  counties, Bandera, Bastrop, Bexar, Blanco, Burnet, Caldwell,
  Comal, Edwards, Gillespie, Guadalupe, Hays, Kendall, Kerr, Lee,
  Llano, Medina, Real, Travis, Uvalde and Williamson.

* WHEN...Through 7 PM CDT Monday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - A moist tropical airmass combined with a slow moving storm
    system will bring another round of scattered to numerous
    showers and storms overnight into Monday morning with heavy
    rain rates possible.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

CP

This broken record of an Energizer Bunny forecast is starting to read like a George BM forecast! This, is definitely NOT enjoyable. We are stuck in this nightmarish RUT, with no way out.

ARE YOU KIDDIN' ME?  The radar returns are evaporating! Drier air is advecting in right now at the mid levels! I was all excited about pretending to be Indiana Jones' Dad looking for the Holy Grail in old Egypt! This weather system is like a damned BROKEN RECORD! It just keeps on going, and going, and going!

I can't BELIEVE this shoosh! The moisture is GONE! There is NO MORE LIFT! Someone at the National Weather Service is obsessed with this damned storm! GET OVER THIS ALREADY! It's high time to forecast 900dm upper ridge over Buda, for the next nine months, La Nina in place with highs in the lower to middle 110s, NO RAIN AT ALL and blistering Egypt-like sun blasting Amarna Buda with fiery heat! I'll be out there dusting off relics and pretending I am archeologisting in the hot countryside at Amarna!

Yeah, this is really bothering all of us down here. Those poor little girls, alone in a raging river that rose something like 25 feet in 45 minutes.

I was so relieved earlier tonight, skies were clearing and all the rain areas just went away.

Then I just got mocked by the National Weather Service

A Flood Watch has been extended through 1 PM Sunday. Additional rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches are possible with isolated pockets of 10 inches somewhere in the watch area. It is very difficult to pinpoint where exactly the isolated heavy amounts will occur in this pattern. Stay Weather Aware!

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
955 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...

- Threat of Flash Flooding from slow moving and repeat heavy rains
  later tonight into Sunday morning. Flood Watch for the Hill Country
  and I-35 corridor has been extended through 1 PM CDT Sunday.

- Continued unseasonably wet and "cool" Monday.

- Turning seasonably drier and warmer next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Multiple models show another round of showers and thunderstorms with
pockets of heavy rains later tonight into Sunday morning. As a
result, have extended the Flood Watch through 1 PM CDT on Sunday.
Have also increased POPs for the Hill Country to along the I-35
corridor.

It is clearing up and the radar is dissolving into nothingness!

We are in the clear! I want 90s and sunshine tomorrow!

Should be perfectly dry and hot into Hallowe'en! Gotta WUB south central Texas!!!!!!!!!!!

We do NOT have rain in Texas in summer. We get treated to 106 degrees, Egypt-like sunshine and heat indices near 120! Not one cloud! Rain be GONE! It's SUMMER now!

9 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Taking the Amtrak to Philly old school style and then the septa over to the ballpark to catch my Reds against the Phillies. Just a gorgeous summer day for  a 4:00 game. 

Enjoy that game!!! Enjoy that nice weather too!

THIS IS GETTING PRETTY  BAD.

Flash Flood Warning

TXC091-209-051800-

/O.NEW.KEWX.FF.W.0061.250705T1446Z-250705T1800Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

Flash Flood Warning

National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX

946 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...

  Eastern Comal County in south central Texas...

  Hays County in south central Texas...

* Until 100 PM CDT.

* At 946 AM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated

  thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between

  1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is

  2 to 4 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3

  inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing

  or expected to begin shortly.

  HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms

           producing flash flooding.

  SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

  IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,

           urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...

  New Braunfels, San Marcos, Kyle, Buda, Dripping Springs,

  Wimberley, Canyon Lake Dam, Canyon Lake, Woodcreek, Uhland,

  Mustang Ridge, Niederwald, Bear Creek, Driftwood, Mountain City,

  Hays, Hays City, Hunter and San Marcos Regional Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood

deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are

potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded

roads. Find an alternate route.

Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where

you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become

killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or

creeks.

&&

LAT...LON 3022 9798 3002 9771 2999 9776 2995 9779

      2988 9789 2986 9790 2986 9788 2985 9788

      2973 9803 2968 9809 2966 9814 2978 9822

      2992 9824 3005 9814

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED

FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...2-4 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

MM

It's been really nice knowing y'all. Even one foot of floodwaters will sweep me away. My left knee AND foot are hurting. I have had severe troubles with the left foot from decades of stupid jebwalking. Now the KNEE is getting bad too. One bad flood and I'm history! I'll never get to see Egypt or the Valley of the Kings or the Giza Plateau or the Central American pyramids or Chan Chan in Peru.

There is zero doubt now, that the weather is changing, and radically at that. Mid Atlantic will have tropical storm after tropical storm after tropical storm this summer. You guys are going to get sick and tired of the rain this summer. So are we down in "summery Texas". This thing just REFUSES to leave us! This POS has overstayed its welcome! Kids are dead in Kerr County! We have absolutely had it up to here with the rain! I want to go live in Cairo, Egypt no kidding. Egyptology and Archaeology have taken my entire life by storm! I adore ancient Egyptian Hieroglyphs straight from the Middle Kingdom and the 13th Dynasty! I LOVE CUNEIFORM TOO! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cylinders_of_Nabonidus

Here is another excellent resource

https://cdn.sanity.io/files/cctd4ker/production/73c1c31082beefc0b8157cdf67ff5aed540898f0.pdf

I absolutely adore this pdf with all my heart! I wub all those beautiful hieroglyphs!!!!!!! And all the incredible information about the steles and the pharaohs! Archaeology is so exciting! Chan Chan in Peru is another interesting place! Have you checked out the Mayan hieroglyphs? Man I have become head right over heels in love with this stuff!

Chan Chan https://archaeology.org/issues/may-june-2023/features/peru-chimu-chan-chan/

I LOVE the British Museum with ALL MY HEART! Check THIS out! https://www.britishmuseum.org/exhibitions/hieroglyphs-unlocking-ancient-egypt

Check out the architecture of the old Philae Temples! https://archaeology.org/issues/november-december-2021/features/egypt-philae-temples/ And the hieroglyphs!

Mayan hieroglyphs for Beginners 

I am getting sick and tired of this shyte right now. It's pouring again. We are in the process of getting Kerr Countied today. I have to go out in this crap to take Ashley B to St David's to her work this morning! Low water crossings today are all like New Orleans  in fracking Katrina. I can't even believe  this malarkey about being warned for possibly ten more inches today. This is south central Texas not the southeastern Carolinas with Chantal.

Ponds are forming in mom's front lawn. We have had 5 inches from this storm cycle. The radar returns are not moving away, they are just undulating reforming then dumping more rain on us. They could be correct about us getting ten inches. This place is becoming a quagmire. It's hard to walk out there, I need hip waders lmao.

This is just terrible. The Guadalupe River rose at least 30 feet in a very short time in the middle of the night.

https://apnews.com/article/thunderstorms-texas-deaths-camp-mystic-trees-hail-e8a4c85c77f714c9a974e50f3cd1fca1

1 hour ago, aldie 22 said:

Perfection until all of the people showed up lol

I am frackin jealous. What's that bright object in the sky?

I am not sure what the sam hill is going on here in central TX right now. We got this round area of heavy rain just spinning like a top so much, it's making me dizzy. We have picked up 2.6 inches since yesterday. We are under a flood watch that has been extended out to evening. Lots folks disgruntled over soggy 4th celebrations and the prospect of soaked fireworks. This thing just does not want to leave. NWS says possibly up to 7 inches by tonight. I thought this was gonna be done by 9am today?

This is Central Texas not northern Virginia. 

On 6/30/2025 at 4:17 PM, Bob Chill said:

We've missed a lot of typical events since. It's that simple. Big events were never that common here even in the 70s and 80s. We've had more big events in the last 15 years than we did in the 25+ before that. The problem in the last 10 years (imo only) is typical or "normal" event frequency.

Weather around the world is more volatile in all seasons than I've ever seen. Feast or famine is everywhere. Last winter had the temps but when it came down to when it mattered things had a real hard time working out. A handful of years in the last 10 were plain warm and that's always a dagger but even the good looks didn't produce like many years further back in time. 

It's a combination of a lot of things and not one explanation.  In my eyes I'm seeing fewer cold periods and the ones that do come along are either short lived or the depth of cold is weak. Look at NC... their problems are similar but amplified. The best advice is to approach each winter expecting the same problems that have plagued us for a decade and be thankful for things that work out. Big storms will almost certainly happen again but active snowy winters with lots of events will require more extreme (and rare) longwave patterns 

 

 

Bob Chill you are a genius. You live well away from the major population centers, You have about 950 feet of el and are in the foothills. The thing I ENVY you to death over is the fact that you will never have what I call Dale City Blight, at least not for about 60 years. Probably not EVER, not even into the upcoming 2100s. But Dale City...... GET OUT NOW. I35 Corridor in Texas is getting as bad lmao, Buda and Kyle TX are both in a screaming free fall, luckily I am 61 and rapidly declining already from way too much jebwalking and will likely not have to deal with what is coming, especially in the Austin Greater Metro Region into the 2030s and 2040s. If you live there, get out while you can. If I won the Power Ball tomorrow, I'd probably move to the Rockies. NO MORE PEOPLE walking around, period. Those small towns just are the best places to live! I have changed radically in just the past 3 years! I HATE people walking around at night! Anyplace with no people is good, hell I have come to love Egyptian hieroglyphs so damn much, I think I'd enjoy living 12 hours out in the Egyptian Sahara! I am a full-fledged Warminista in my old age, and love to study ancient Egyptian hieroglyphics and hieratic signs.