Jebman

Mammoth is getting hit by even more snow - this was definitely NOT in the forecast tonight!

They have 3-4 inches MORE fresh snow since 6pm and MORE on the way overnight! They just opened today!

Even the Village level got hit! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/the-village

Woolly Lot needs a Plow!!!! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam

That snow is blowing in the Lights at the Main Lodge!

https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge

The Washington DC Metropolitan Region will get beneficial rains from the system that just missed us. You guys are downstream of us and will benefit from this weather system as it continues to develop as it translates E/NE with time. Another rainmaker will help Washington out right after that. Same reason come December/January/February you will see snows from the intersection of moisture contributions from Texas and the Gulf of Mexico and cold air.

Our misses and failures will become YOUR BIG STORM DIRECT HITS ON YOUR ENTIRE SUB this entire winter! First beneficial rains, later translating into really good snows that will pile up and wear out your backs as you will be forced to dig snow after snow after snow!

Hays County where I reside, been dropped from the flood watch. It's done. We transition to the Pacific air mass with little to no rain as the central Texan Gobi Desert continues to develop unopposed by significant precip amid the Nina.  

I knew it all along. Texas is transitioning to a much drier climate even as millions of legal people rapidly move in as more and more businesses come to Austin. One day very soon, WATER will be nearly as expensive  as GOLD down here.

1) Wells dry up.

2) No water at all.

3) Water has to be paid for and Austin is already using up the Colorado River so water will need to be piped in from the Pac Northwest. It's gonnabe PRICEY.

4) Wealthy folks will move out, to moister places like New Orleans. I'd love that place, rain all the time and one hell of a nightlife, I'd do things that'd make RavensRule blush with total embarrassment! I am most assuredly, NOT conservative no more! I am going to do stuff in late life that will make Solomon of old's late life look like one of Billy Graham's sons' dedication to g-d.

EDIT: Keeping things 100 - yes we did get a brief shower, it did wet the pavement but will do nothing for our water needs or agriculture needs. We still have millions of legal people moving to central TX along with businesses and the wells will dry up then water will cost a sizable fraction of our annual income forcing people to leave for wetter climes.

We have now been officially MISSED by this weather system. We will miss the next one in a couple days as well. We will be dry and desertification will continue apace in central TX.

Winds are gusting to 15-25mph straight out of the north, Pac front hit us, some bit of rain is scudding by. This is just another day in the Gobi Desert of central Texas. Dry conditions continue apace.

RAIN FUTILITY MARKERS

1) Rain delayed is rain denied or at least greatly reduced.

2) The Curly Pattern near Austin invalidates upper level low rains and Pacific frontal rains.

3) La Nina will keep Austin 15 degrees above normal and rainless for the most part. We have consistently been 15 degrees above normal with high temperatures. Last night the low was 73. Normal low is 48. NORMAL HIGH is 66 !!!! OUCH. This is becoming normal in autumn down here.

4) Differences between air masses temperatures and humidities mean absolutely NOTHING down here. Thermodynamics mean absolutely NOTHING down here. Forecasters routinely get humbled. If it were 95 degrees with 73 dews in Austin and a Polar front with 47/35 air hits us, it would get cold but rain would be minimal to none. Not sure why but this is our new normal down here. Upper level lows and fronts do next to nothing here besides changing the air mass.

MORE WILL BE ADDED.

I am an outstanding forecaster as the same areas continue to get drowned by heavy rain and Austin remains drier than a proverbial popcorn fart. That Curl Pattern always leaves Austin out to dry. At this time I expect approximately one sixteenth of an inch as the front goes by eventually. Farther west torrential rain continues, provoking more flooding.

Edit - Sun's been out. Mostly cloudy with a nice wind and still no rain. It's truly amazing, looking at all that torrential rain about 60 to 120 miles west of us, curling right past Austin nearly into West Virginia!!!!! Lots places getting a good deal of rain! Washington, DC's next!

Front should go by late tonight, giving the new Gobi Desert of central Texas maybe a sprinkle or two then in comes the high winds and chilly weather blowing the dust around. I got 6 inch dust dunes in my pasture from all the dry Gobi winds lol!

Best of luck with the rescues west of us! That heavy rain's been hammering them for twelve straight hours! We're so hard up for water, might have buy some off you guys!

Just another DRY rainless day down here in Gobi, Texas.

No surprise. Dallas is getting demolished by waves of torrential rain. DAMN I'M A GOOD FORECASTER! The rain has completely missed us tonight, which in one sense was good for me because it means I got to go out deliver. I am now pretty sure that this curl pattern, which I have learned to recognize, when we have a Pacific front and an upper level low - The Infamous Curl Pattern, in which rain curls around the Austin Metro and around Buda, means little to no moisture for us, and Dallas, Oklahoma and Missouri had better be building an Ark, because this system is very powerful and all of the rain will be channeled across Dallas, probably dumping over a foot of fresh rain flooding the Trinity River and it is gonna take a hell of a lot more than Neo to conduct all those water rescues into Thursday and Friday. A hell of a lot of heavy rain is heading right for Little Rock, AR! Oklahoma is at grave risk as is parts of Missouri. Louisiana isn't out of the woods, not by a long shot. I'll eke out maybe a tenth to  a third of an inch, That's all. This is a BAD PATTERN for Austin. I have seen this so many times its not even funny. Welcome to La Nina. This low sun season drought is gonnabe so bad for Texas come the hell summer of 2026 in which the Nina will only deepen. No rain at all for us. Ag will suffer and collapse. Jugs of water will be worth incredible amounts of money by 2030. Food will become scarce as the ugly specter of holodomor starts to loom. This may be a damn good time to get out of the Southwestern US. Where there is no water, there is no life.

REMEMBER, BEFORE MOVING TO AUSTIN - THIS REGION IS CURSED. WE MISS MOST OF THE RAIN. Might want to go to New Orleans instead. They are in an historic convergence zone. They get all the winter rains, then in the summer and fall in a good year every last tropical cyclone will ring their bell. Harvey was wonderful! They had plenty of rain that year!

You guys want to see snow.

Look NO farther than Mammoth Mountain's Ski Resort OPENING TOMORROW at 8.30am PST!!!!!

Check THIS out! https://www.mammothmountain.com/

Tons of rain on the radar, but NO RAIN in central Texas.

There's one thing we do damn well - We are The Boss, when it comes to Drought down here. No one does Drought like central Texas. La Nina's helpin us out too, deflecting storm tracks safely away from my backyard.

I'll forecast this storm. No one does this like yours truly down here, and I have only been here 7 years.

Dallas, They will have frantic water rescues by 3am. 3 to 9 inches easily. Most of the rain will pass safely over Austin. We *MIGHT* eke out half an inch. 

Yeah, that really helps. We are now the fastest growing megalopolis (Dallas/Austin/Buda/Kyle/SanMarcos/San Antonio) in the World. We passed Dubai and the entire UAE last year. WE WILL RUN OUT OF WATER. When THAT happens, water will be far more expensive than gasoline. Every major business is heading for Austin. This place is already a madhouse in rush hour. It's gonna get MUCH, MUCH worse. Everyone in New York City is heading down here, too. We'll add 3 million in the next 12 months! New Yorkers can't stand the snow and the cold, that is why so many people are suddenly moving out of NYC. All that snow is bad for business up there. Austin does not get snow. We don't get rain, either. Not much. Well north usually gets the rain. That would be Dallas, Oklahoma and Missouri, Louisiana.

You know what I think? The lack of water in Texas will eventually cause another exodus, this time farther east, to pastures that get much more water, like New Orleans. Nightlife there is stellar, too, and they have casinos. Texas never will. This place is permanently stuck in the 1950s. Except for traffic and water shortages straight out of the 2090s.

Big snow aggregates are just demolishing the Woolly Lot right now at 21 degrees, and are being blown sideways by that wind as well!

https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam

Mammoth is blizzarding at 21 20 degrees with wind gusts to 45.

Village level has 3-4 inches. Main Lodge level has 8-9 inches on the ground with 21 degrees and it is coming down and blowing all over the place! McCoy Station at 9600 feet has 12-14 inches with 18 degrees, Summit at 11000 feet has 20 inches of snow at 14 degrees. Snow all night, at least another 4 inches, then more snow on Thursday from yet another storm in the Pacific Set.

https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge

https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam

Mammoth is set to Open on Nov 20.

You know WE GOT HIM, one of these days when I am REALLY bored, I just might try out the SESH. I might blast Ken Carson at 220 decibels while I participate.

DCA: 15.3"

BWI: 17.7"

IAD: 25.4" Dale City will get 22.5 inches snow this winter.

RIC: 13.2"

SBY: 15.1"

Look guys I am super optimistic but I don't think the Nina is gonna agree with me so these are my prognostications.

Shock to the System at 6am Texas time today, been out delivering then had a look at Mammoth. Well whaddaya know????? The temperature FINALLY managed to fall to 28 degrees and the precip redeveloped and its snowin and blowin out there! At least 4 inches at Main Lodge level, may be 5 or 6. It is even snowing now at Village level with 1-2 inches there!! Personnel FINALLY have a golden opportunity to run the fuck out of all those brand spankin new snow guns at Mammoth! Run 'em to DEATH!

https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam

Woolly is the best camera now that its lights out at the Main Lodge!

Wow lets see what they get!

I'm off the Ledge. Reaper can rest, for now lol

Sorry guys. Off topic. I deleted it. I am VERY sorry.

5 hours ago, CAPE said:

Fresh Bluefin Tuna. Paid 14 bucks. Imagine what this would have cost in a restaurant. Seasoned with salt, pepper, and Japanese Seven spice. Fuck yeah.

I am now RAVENOUS. Thanks. Imma gonnabe getting some tomorrow! I'd add some steamed broccoli and cauliflower with a touch of butter. Then, afterward I'd kick back and watch Red October in full stereo turned waaaaaay the hell up!

Welcome to the high Sierra Cordillera, Lucy's Washington DC Edition 2025.

It finally managed to fall to 32 degrees. Ground FINALLY managed to eke out a white coating. This, at 9,000 feet in the Sierra in mid to late November!

https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge

It's finally cold enough for snow at 9,000 feet and the snow is super light. Damn. Out of moisture. Sound familiar, DC'ers? We're playin the Lucy game here at Mammoth this winter! Local meteorologists up here are frazzled and humbled as storm tracks end up all over the place! They are not even sure that Mammoth will ever see enough snow to open up at all anytime soon! That damn RADAR is making me want to walk the Ledge again! All the heavy stuff is moving northwest, AWAY from Mammoth! DAMN!

Its been so damn bad up here that the resort was forced to POSTPONE the Saturday Opening! Why, you ask?

NO SNOW! Just mud.

It's called La Nina.

That means warmer than normal in the Sierras, Deep South and Texas. Cold as fuck in the Midwest, Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic and the Northeast will be particularly hard hit with Ice Age-magnitude cold and snows.

At this rate I will soon be so despondent about thin snows at Mammoth, that I will soon be ripe for reaping.

It's THAT BAD!

Gonna have to develop some snow futility markers for up here! Like the fact that it hits 32 degrees then bounces back up to 33 - all night long. This ensures hardly more than an inch accumulates - even though it snows hard as heck all night, like last night.

2 hours ago, adelphi_sky said:

Should I get excited about this winter? A lot of talk about below avg temps and above avg precipitation. Can't wait to start tracking again and eating popcorn watching people argue snowfall maps.   This has been one boring summer/fall. Needs some weather excitement!

You're gonna get it! This is going to be an exciting snow winter in the East and the Mid Atlantic's gonnabe leading the way!

1 hour ago, snowfan said:

The higher peaks in NNE are off to a good start re snowfall. KMWN is already pushing 40” for the month. Pretty good for November. 

NNE is waaaaaaaaaaay ahead of the Sierra in November. Poor cordillera cant even fall below freezing this year.

Well whaddaya know? Looks like they managed to pick up an inch of slush on the grass at the Main Lodge and Woolly Cam! Mc Coy Station has got about 5-8 inches of snow, they are at 9600 feet.

Mammoth forecasters are really hyping the overnight snow, calling for 4-8 inches like JB, but ground truth shows only about an inch of slush slop, unless you hit the summit at 11K feet where they might have 8 inches.

Its pouring heavy, super wet snow in Mammoth, but the damn temperature is 36 degrees. It's snow tv only. It's basically Washington DC in the Sierras tonight folks. This storm is a total FAIL !

Temp down to 36 at Mammoth. Precip is steady moderate to heavy and appears to have gone over to ALL snow. Still no stickage. Still rain at Village level.

Temp now at 35 degrees. Even with no lighting, snow can just be made out falling pretty good up at Mc Coy Station at 9,600 feet. It is likely all snow now at Main Lodge. It is really coming down in the lights there but still no stickage yet, no preconsolidation of any kind as of yet - 7.40pm PST (9.40pm CST in Texas).

The surface reflectivity is changing. This is another way of saying that I am seeing it get slushy on the top of the roof of the Main Lodge, and that I no longer can see the puddles of water on the ground either, and the reflectivity there which has been marked with the rainfall as of late ---- is changing quite a bit. This is probably because of the start of slushiness from falling snow, something I refer to as 'preconsolidation' and it is building up.

https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge

As of 5.33pm PST, we are now seeing very WET snow falling at both Woolly Cam and at the Main Lodge.

It's 38 degrees, ground is soaked, stickage is extremely unlikely.

https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge

https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam At Woolly you can make out rain impacting the pavement so what this may well be is a snow/rain mix. At any rate temps are far above freezing. What a waste of 5 inches of water. You can see hydrometeor impacts in water puddles on the Main Lodge grounds too. This is probably a moderate to heavy extremely wet snow and plain rain mix, in an upper 30s temperature environment in the presence of extremely wet soaked mud, mud that is well above freezing which shall rule out any stickage whatsoever. It probably won't cave until next week's colder storm.

It's a real severe punch right in the gut, to realize that Mammoth at 9000 feet can get Washington DC'd, too. At least Mc Coy Station at 9,630 feet is seeing some accumulation on the grounds.

Damn.

As of 3.52pm PST - McCoy Station at 9600 feet has had some light snow. You can see it on the ground. But everyone below that is rain and deep mud. Mammoth is no longer opening Saturday. They don't know when, what with this humongous rain-filled storm.

Contrast McCoy Station at 9,630 feet https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/mccoy-station

with the Main Lodge https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge

and Woolly Cam https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam

Main Lodge and Woolly are at 8900-9000 feet and are a rainy muddy mess with nearby higher elevation snows melting fast.

This huge moisture laden storm is a catastrophe for Opening Day with tons of fresh liquid rainfall.

Steady RAIN even at 9630 feet. Summit is 11,000 feet with snow, but everything below it looks so much like DCA In January.

McCoy Station at 9,630 feet may have some snow, but everything below that is liquid.

On 11/8/2025 at 4:27 PM, CAPE said:

Dec 2009, because it was KU that occurred before Xmas(very unusual) and it kicked off the best snow season of my lifetime. Modoki Nino with epic NA Blocking that developed early and sustained through winter. 

My answer may have been different earlier but at this juncture that's the one lol.

The EPIC 2009-2010 winter was so good because I got to go with Dad to Charles Town that entire winter. They got a hell of a LOT more snow than Dale City did. I saw drifts so high it was unbelievable, especially the ones along Rt 9!!!!! All I could say was wow wow wow wow the entire way. Just MASSIVE jebwalks in Charles Town, the snow was so damn DEEP it was utterly beyond belief! I had NEVER, EVER personally experienced snow THAT deep! I was beside myself with joy! Some of the drifts were so high, and even the snow depths on a level, as far as I could tell, were downright intimidating!

I kept records over there in W. Va., and to this day they bring back incredible memories! How that incredibly deep snow affected me! How fun it was to try and walk in it! How fun it was to watch some of it come down in real time!

7 hours ago, Weather Will said:

I get it, but let's try to keep the vibes positive this winter, at least it is not a shut the blinds look....maybe we will get lucky...

You WILL get lucky!!