Jebman

1 hour ago, snowfan said:

The higher peaks in NNE are off to a good start re snowfall. KMWN is already pushing 40” for the month. Pretty good for November. 

NNE is waaaaaaaaaaay ahead of the Sierra in November. Poor cordillera cant even fall below freezing this year.

Well whaddaya know? Looks like they managed to pick up an inch of slush on the grass at the Main Lodge and Woolly Cam! Mc Coy Station has got about 5-8 inches of snow, they are at 9600 feet.

Mammoth forecasters are really hyping the overnight snow, calling for 4-8 inches like JB, but ground truth shows only about an inch of slush slop, unless you hit the summit at 11K feet where they might have 8 inches.

Its pouring heavy, super wet snow in Mammoth, but the damn temperature is 36 degrees. It's snow tv only. It's basically Washington DC in the Sierras tonight folks. This storm is a total FAIL !

Temp down to 36 at Mammoth. Precip is steady moderate to heavy and appears to have gone over to ALL snow. Still no stickage. Still rain at Village level.

Temp now at 35 degrees. Even with no lighting, snow can just be made out falling pretty good up at Mc Coy Station at 9,600 feet. It is likely all snow now at Main Lodge. It is really coming down in the lights there but still no stickage yet, no preconsolidation of any kind as of yet - 7.40pm PST (9.40pm CST in Texas).

The surface reflectivity is changing. This is another way of saying that I am seeing it get slushy on the top of the roof of the Main Lodge, and that I no longer can see the puddles of water on the ground either, and the reflectivity there which has been marked with the rainfall as of late ---- is changing quite a bit. This is probably because of the start of slushiness from falling snow, something I refer to as 'preconsolidation' and it is building up.

https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge

As of 5.33pm PST, we are now seeing very WET snow falling at both Woolly Cam and at the Main Lodge.

It's 38 degrees, ground is soaked, stickage is extremely unlikely.

https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge

https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam At Woolly you can make out rain impacting the pavement so what this may well be is a snow/rain mix. At any rate temps are far above freezing. What a waste of 5 inches of water. You can see hydrometeor impacts in water puddles on the Main Lodge grounds too. This is probably a moderate to heavy extremely wet snow and plain rain mix, in an upper 30s temperature environment in the presence of extremely wet soaked mud, mud that is well above freezing which shall rule out any stickage whatsoever. It probably won't cave until next week's colder storm.

It's a real severe punch right in the gut, to realize that Mammoth at 9000 feet can get Washington DC'd, too. At least Mc Coy Station at 9,630 feet is seeing some accumulation on the grounds.

Damn.

As of 3.52pm PST - McCoy Station at 9600 feet has had some light snow. You can see it on the ground. But everyone below that is rain and deep mud. Mammoth is no longer opening Saturday. They don't know when, what with this humongous rain-filled storm.

Contrast McCoy Station at 9,630 feet https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/mccoy-station

with the Main Lodge https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge

and Woolly Cam https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam

Main Lodge and Woolly are at 8900-9000 feet and are a rainy muddy mess with nearby higher elevation snows melting fast.

This huge moisture laden storm is a catastrophe for Opening Day with tons of fresh liquid rainfall.

Steady RAIN even at 9630 feet. Summit is 11,000 feet with snow, but everything below it looks so much like DCA In January.

McCoy Station at 9,630 feet may have some snow, but everything below that is liquid.

On 11/8/2025 at 4:27 PM, CAPE said:

Dec 2009, because it was KU that occurred before Xmas(very unusual) and it kicked off the best snow season of my lifetime. Modoki Nino with epic NA Blocking that developed early and sustained through winter. 

My answer may have been different earlier but at this juncture that's the one lol.

The EPIC 2009-2010 winter was so good because I got to go with Dad to Charles Town that entire winter. They got a hell of a LOT more snow than Dale City did. I saw drifts so high it was unbelievable, especially the ones along Rt 9!!!!! All I could say was wow wow wow wow the entire way. Just MASSIVE jebwalks in Charles Town, the snow was so damn DEEP it was utterly beyond belief! I had NEVER, EVER personally experienced snow THAT deep! I was beside myself with joy! Some of the drifts were so high, and even the snow depths on a level, as far as I could tell, were downright intimidating!

I kept records over there in W. Va., and to this day they bring back incredible memories! How that incredibly deep snow affected me! How fun it was to try and walk in it! How fun it was to watch some of it come down in real time!

7 hours ago, Weather Will said:

I get it, but let's try to keep the vibes positive this winter, at least it is not a shut the blinds look....maybe we will get lucky...

You WILL get lucky!!

Modeling is now indicating 5 inches of liquid over the Sierra with the incoming system but there is going to be a ton of warm air as well, most of this is going to be heavy wind whipped rain, except at elevations above 9,200 feet. The highest peaks well above 9,200 feet are expected to eke out a foot of slushy wet slimy potato type snow paste ugh.

We may well be facing a Sunday River, Maine ski resort type of scenario here, with so much rain that entire ski runs get carved out several feet deep in the rocky soil from so damn much rain. The weather system is expected to slow down greatly enabling warm air to persist longer causing heavy rains to last longer piling up rain tallies. Immense amounts of the rain waters will rush down into the valleys causing freezing cold flooding issues for travelers and residents alike.

The Winter Storm Warning for the  Sierras near Mammoth  strongly advise against travel due to mudslides and rockslides because of heavy rain saturating mountainsides with this rain-laden system!

EDIT 10.32pm PST, which is 12.32am here in TX, I have noted some very wet flurry activity at Mammoth even at 39 degrees. They can do that at those elevations, but that warm air is gonna work in.

https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge

This is gonnabe one hell of an EPIC Opening Day for Mammoth on Saturday, just gonnabe sodden and thoroughly rain-soaked. Roads will probably be impassable not because of snow but because of rockslides and mudslides.

The Sierra storm tomorrow is shaping up to be quite a rainer all the way up to 9,200 feet. Very warm conditions as La Nina continues. Possibly 3-4 inches of plain rain at resort level will wash away lots of soil and rocks. Only the highest peaks at 11,000 feet will see 1-2 feet of wet snow. Not that this will help the Saturday opening at Mammoth in 2-3 days. Skiers will be mudding it out all the way down the slopes. Palisades will be all torrential rain too, whipped by 90kt winds at the crests. There are indications on the modeling that this movable feast will slow down and dump ridiculous amounts of rain into the weekend. We are going to see many forlorn skiers show up at Mammoth for one of the rainiest openings in history. They might not even make it up there for floods, mudslides and washed out roads.

This is going to be a monumental washout.

The only place there will not be an all-out CARNAGE this winter will be the Great Lakes where downwind LES will bury many alive in meters of windblown snow.

5 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

Not sure if it is far enough away from Parkton, @mappy but I will officially be living in Fallston as of Dec. 1. Bad news for @Interstate as I bring my snow shield to Harford County...

 

I got a good chuckle out of your snow shield lol........

The upcoming Sierra snowstorm is now progged to be much farther south and a lot warmer, with a ton of rain even at the ski resorts like Mammoth and Palisades. They will be plagued by extremely high snow levels and less precip as well. They might have to move their opening dates to December, because it is so warm up there they can't even make artificial snow at night.

Say hello to the La Nina.

But this is going to work out to be very good news for the Mid Atlantic this winter, because this is no ordinary Nina. It will be unusually cold in the East this winter and storms will mix with the cold and bring numerous snows to the DC Region.

Lately, we have been seeing more Nina-like conditions in the El Nino, and more Nino-like conditions in the La Nina. Go figure. The weather is all messed up.

Of course the Great Lakes will get demolished by snow. They get it in spades every time a cold front hits that place.

Sierra may get a storm but the upshot of it is torrential RAIN at 9,500 feet with a flooded start to the ski season at Mammoth, record amounts of water accumulations to ski in on Opening Day! They might have to break out the water skis! They are gonna need a bigger boat! On the Slopes! Or inner tubes to ride all of the waters cascading off the slopes!

This is going to be an extremely wild winter! 90,000 percent above normal snows in the Great Lakes. South very warm all winter, Texas included. Might have to open the public pools in Jan-Feb from highs in the 90s in Austin. Its gonna hit 87 again tomorrow! West Coast extremely above normal temps resulting in barren muddy slopes into April 2026. Many western ski resorts will shut down, some permanently. Alleghenies 50,000 percent above normal snows from LES bands demolishing them non stop thru May 2026! Mid Atlantic is going to end up catastrophically below normal temps right into June 2026. The upshot of that, will be ridiculously above normal snow tallies in the DC Region well into the spring.

This is going to be a La Nina to remember for decades.

6 hours ago, luckyweather said:

Hey man, I know you and the team are literally doing this unpaid right now, yet you’re still in there grinding. Just wanted to say I appreciate you, sincerely. 

I want to second that. You guys SHOULD be getting paid. You not getting paid is an OUTRAGE.

8 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

So this is happening huh

Need to dig in

Gonna need to dig out, too lol. ENJOY!

Mammoth got about an inch.

But Palisades Tahoe is getting some good snows!

https://www.palisadestahoe.com/mountain-information/webcams

DT WxRisk thinks that this winter could be somewhat like 2013-2014.

That would be EPIC for the Mid Atlantic.

SNE/NE will get BURIED ALIVE by snow this winter. Stock up. Get shovels. Get snowblowers. The entire Eastern collection of megalopolises all up and down the East Coast will get clobbered by snow this winter.

GB16 was the BEST. We got 27 inches of snow and I got to dig snow til I was utterly exhausted. I had to dig Dad a path for the car to the road, then the next door neighbor demanded I dig her car out, then the neighbor next to her said hey Jebman, get off that weather board and dig my car out of this 7 foot drift so I did. Then Bill across the street wanted some help. I said I was too damn tired. He replied I'll tell YOU what WE are tired of: You wishin for big snows like this! Now get out here Jebman and dig out my car! I got a five foot drift over it. I shoveled it. Finally, I figured I'd done my share of the digging out of Dale City from the Great Blizzard of 2016. But no. The Hispanic lady across from us then wanted me to dig her car out. So I wearily dug her out too. Fortunately the snow there had been blown away and it was only a foot deep.

I was actually tired of snow. I stumbled inside the house and Dad teased me saying aren't you gonna dig out the sidewalk too? And the ROAD?

I collapsed on the couch. Boy did Dad kid me the next couple of days, especially when that damn PLOW left a 5 foot BERM right across our driveway entrance!

On 11/4/2025 at 4:24 PM, SnowenOutThere said:

I have my third atmosphere and weather test tomorrow and its all on thermodynamics, saturation vapor pressure, lapse rates, and scew-Ts (I am cooked). So would any met or anyone else who knows what theyre doing check my work on this? @CAPE @psuhoffman @WxUSAF @MN Transplant @high risk 

Man I need help with understanding GitHub. Wish there was someone out there who could explain upstream and origin to me.

On 10/31/2025 at 12:12 PM, AlexD1990 said:

but now we don't get @George BMs alternate future NWS disco for the Thanksgiving blizzard! sad face!

I am no meteorologist like George BM but I may need to set up a totally morbid Thanksgiving snow prognostication.

C'MON George BM! We desperately need your writeups! Washington DC Metropolitan Region weather is not the same without you!

Now, we have TWO standouts in this here sub:

1)George BM needs to make his forecasts; and

2)We need the Reaper back! Reapers do NOT retire. They live forever and REAP forever and do NOT get tired! And, they do NOT need to go lift weights in order to kill off depressionologists like myself. I may need reaped soon due to low 90s weather AGAIN in south central Texas in November and lack of George BM forecasts!

Dale City's average high and low just hit Buda, TX's January averages today, 59/41.

On 11/1/2025 at 12:21 PM, Steve25 said:

I’d say our odds of being on the good luck side as opposed to the bad luck side are in our favor just because we’re due. 9 consecutive below average winters and nearly 10 years since the last 6+ inch snowfall in Baltimore(at least IMBY). Even being in an area where we need a lot of things to go right, this has been an absolutely brutal stretch of years. Things have to swing in our favor at some point. 

I need to move back to the DC Metropolitan Region. Ever since I left in 2018 things have gone to hell worse than the post-Snyder Redskins franchise.

I been begging for cold. Well, it is already 45/35 right now in Buda, clear, very light northerly winds. If anything, it will be colder than last night.

Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!!!!!!

And, I have to do delivery late tonight, at oh dark thirty, and it will be super cold. It was only days ago it was warm and I blasted Playboi Carti and Ken Carson at near full blast in the car. Now I have to keep the windows shut tight and blast the heater.