Jebman
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Posts posted by Jebman
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On 9/13/2025 at 12:13 PM, frd said:
Well given this output, we just might need to upgrade the panic room. Damn that is so bad for the Western ski resorts. Mammoth may be bare ground all winter. I'll be begging for a reaping. Do me a rendition of being on the 105th Floor in the North Tower and goin down with the building on September 11 2001 while clinging to the outside trying to get some fresh air........
Sure I am terminally morbid about so many things lol.
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22 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:
What does it mean when there are no capatillers
around?
It means you guys are gonna get five straight Benchmark Blizzards along with a winter to remember.
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It's gonnabe a 2013-2014 Winter in the DC metropolitan region. Get the diggin shovels ready. Get ready to be watching models for months.
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On 9/10/2025 at 9:53 AM, 87storms said:
Standard deviation is just the average distance of each value in a dataset from the dataset’s mean. In a normal (or near normal) distribution (tied to the central limit theorem), then 1, 2, and 3 standard deviations from the mean cover ~68/95/99.7% of the data. So by nature >= 2-3 standard deviations away from the mean implies <= 5% chance of occurrence.
And IQR is just the middle 50% of the ordered data. Replacing a dataset’s tails with anomalies will skew the mean and increase the standard deviation, but not affect the IQR (or even median).
There’s nuances to all of this, but that’s the gist of it.Thank, 87Storms! I remember those blizzards in Jan 1987! That's a story in itself!
Why haven't they red-tagged YOU yet?!
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On 9/9/2025 at 2:44 PM, WxUSAF said:
Woo!
Congrats, WxUSAF! You win. I came in dead last lmao. I hand the Torch to Thee!
Excellent Job!
BTW, snow levels at Mammoth are gonnabe falling to 10,800 feet tonight Sept 11 2025. Already wearing out my finger from hitting refresh!
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On 9/8/2025 at 9:08 AM, Rhino16 said:
Basically, we can take a set of numbers and break them into quarters. Just like we do with the months in a year.
Interquartile is the set of numbers between Q1 and Q3, the numbers in the middle of the dataset. So if the models are putting out numbers that are very spread out and uncertain like in your example, the Interquartile Range will be high. If the models are all putting out similar numbers, the difference between Q3 and Q1 will be low, so making a temperature forecast might be easier.
Hey Rhino16, thank you very much!
Why haven't they red-tagged you yet?
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Possibly some more rain today in Buda. Rain to the west as I am coming back from delivering in San Marcos this morning prompted me to cover the car. They are expecting 2 to 4 additional inches probably in San Marcos south today. I am expecting a quarter to half inch and will be content, even with a sixteenth of an inch.
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39 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:
Man who would've thought our climo would reach a point where "north and west of the city" was no longer what it used to be, smh South is the place to be apparently
Wake me up when @North Balti Zen cashes in. Maybe then that'll mean more of us can get something more substantial that year, lol
North Balti's gonna cash in this winter. So will you and nearly everyone else in this here sub.
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Just wanted to say to the meteorologists on here, you guys are doing a great job with the system working thru south central Tex right now. You are forecasting 1-3 possible today, 1-2 possible tomorrow. I personally saw a third of an inch. Thats reasonable. Great job. Have a good day today, and an even better one tomorrow.
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On 12/11/2024 at 7:46 PM, WxWatcher007 said:
Mods should’ve given me the ability to really reap posters for the winter. Something about lawsuits scared ‘em. Wrongful death and such.
I cherish the one time I got reaped. Never felt better. Almost better than if I ever got to hang out with Ashley B.
Its really a cryin shame WxWeather007 retired. Reapers never retire.
But then, we all know this winter is gonnabe like '13-'14 and '09-'10 in one unbelievably Brobdingnagian frigid incredibly snowy Day After Tomorrow scenario, right into late April in DCA.
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On 9/2/2025 at 6:21 PM, katabatic said:
The colors on the usual suspects (sugar maples, etc) are beginning to show. It’s quite noticeable and several weeks ahead of normal. It’s been right at 40 last few mornings. Do leaves respond more to reduced sunlight or temp?Shortening days I think is what does it, but cooling temps don't hurt.
Man I miss those leaf colors so much. All leaves do in Texas is turn brown like a Thanksgiving turkey.
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5 hours ago, CAPE said:
NFL is BACK!
Looking forward to watching the Eagles crush the Cowboys. Love NFL football, and the season seems to go so fast- sort of in phase with Fall and winter, which seem to fly by and suddenly we are back to Spring and never-ending Summer again, although this year has been a refreshing change from the usual relentless heat and humidity. Time to cherish the shorter days and the long shadows going forward, and the anticipation of what winter may have in store. I know...but it's a time for optimism.
Eagles will crush the Cowboys.
MD will get crushed by heavy snow.
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6 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:
Maybe .02” here.
So many times Kyle Texas steals all of our rightful rain. They'd get 3 inches of torrential rain then I get home to Buda, 7 miles north and frackin' NADA. Everything is brown as a Thanksgiving turkey. I am getting sick as ebola of this damn drought.
You know whats the worst part?
No hope for hurricanes in the western gulf of mexico. Not with that brobdingnagian semipermanent trough in the East.
It's never gonna rain again in Buda. I am almost out of water. At the rate this is going, I am soon gonnabe forced to drink my damn piss just to survive like Bear Grylls in Africa.
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On 8/30/2025 at 8:50 PM, Eskimo Joe said:
We'll be back in a few weeks suffering through another season of despair.
No we won't. Panic Room will close down in despair while everyone in the Mid Atlantic has a sore back from shoveling too much deep snow.
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Look I apologize for posting this stuff in the modeling long range thread. But I need a real meteorologist like Millville Wx, high risk, WxUSAF, wxmeddler, or any other red tagged Met to explain this nomenclature to me.
My fields are software engineering and AI engineering, not these apparently statistical terms. I am not really a weather person, only a silly snow weenie in winter wishing 4 feet of snow on DCA from one storm.
This paragraph is from today's AFD for AUS.
The rainy and cloudy weather will support cooler temperatures beginning this weekend. With a thermal trough in our area during this period, showers and storms could be more effective at producing rain-cooled air. The approaching front may also contribute some cooler air depending how far south it gets, though given the time of year, most of the cooler temperatures will probably be rain and cloud driven. This introduces significant uncertainty in temperatures as illustrated by 7 to 10 degree interquartile ranges in NBM QMD maximum temperatures on Sunday and Monday. Given the large uncertainties, the current temperature forecast is aligned with the NBM, featuring highs in the 80s to low 90s Sunday and Monday before gradually warming back up into midweek after the active weather pattern passes.
What I would like a meteorologist to do for me here is to please explain to me in 4th grade terms, what interquartile means. This stuff is WAY above my paygrade as well as centuries above my IQ level too. lmao
Thanks in advance, I am sorry for posting this in the long range thread BUT I need a real Met to try and explain this term to me.
Another thing, what are standard deviations? What do meteorologists mean when they say in an area forecast disco, that moisture is several standard deviations above normal for that time of year?
Might have to send someone some XRP for defining INTERQUARTILE. And standard deviation.
This time next year, xrp is going to be at least 75 dollars a coin. Right now it is about 2.30 I think. It's gonna go up. By 2030 it is gonnabe about 650 a coin.
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NWS really missed that last storm BAD. It just vanished. However, it enabled me to deliver last night, had a very very good night so happy it did not rain. Holiday weekends are the BEST! Here comes the Holiday Season! Nothing but 90s/70s dewpoints for the foreseeable future! Rain be GONE! Wall to wall perpetual sunshine here forever in The Lone Star State! Fall is still a good ways away from us!
If you live in the DCA Metropolitan Region.........
Better look out! Gonnabe super COLD! Lots chances for moisture/frigid airmass alignment! Gonnabe a MASSIVE winter for snow lovers back East! You can take that directly to the Bank with 98 percent interest which YOU get to keep!
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You have a very chilly weather system about to crash right into the Mid Atlantic from the frigid Yukon Territories.
Be very careful what you wish for!
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8 hours ago, George BM said:
Tuesday, September 16, 2025
Tornado Emergency remains in effect for northern Baltimore City and central Baltimore county until 5:45PM EDT. At 5:32PM a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located near Pikesville, MD moving northeast at 50 mph. Locations impacted include Pikesville, Stevenson, Brooklandville, Mays Chapel, Cockeysville, Hunt Valley, Ashland, Timonium, Phoenix, Jacksonville.
This tornado has a history of producing catastrophic damage across parts of Montgomery and Howard counties in Maryland. This is a life-threatening situation. Everyone in the warned area must be underground in a basement until the storm passes.
i am very glad I reside in Texas. I am safe from twisters down here where I live.
Nice job, George BM!
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On 8/28/2025 at 9:56 AM, 87storms said:
So when does summer return? I’m starting to miss it.
Seriously? Okay, come on down, to Austin, Texas! We got all the Summer you can handle!
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5 hours ago, IronTy said:
Turned on the heated floor in my bathroom for the first time since spring. With the cloud cover it's actually a bit chilly at times in the breeze, crazy for August.
I am so damn jealous its not even funny.
We've had 75 dews for months. I have gotten so accustomed to 98/75 that I kick back on a plastic chair in the back porch in the shade and fall fast asleep while I am supposed to be watering mom's plants. I am so used to humid weather, that at night while delivering I often have the windows down, in 78/74 conditions.
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In other news....... huge brobdingnagian rain event with eight inches of rain will likely miss Buda entirely. Drought and desertification love North Hays County. This hyped up weather system is no exception.
Edit: Yeah, this thing is fizzling fast. Been a while since we got any real rain. Everything is turkey brown, turning into a Saharan dust bowl. What was once being touted as a major rain event down here has become a fast evaporating fizzle. Hey, at least we are consistent. I counted about 236 small rain drops, may be a record for August!
NWS needs to start tapering down their ridiculous forecast for Central Texas. San Antonio probably got 3 inches. The rest of us are gonna have a hard time getting the pavement wet. This 2 to 4 inches with lollies of EIGHT INCHES borders on outright insanity. Maybe this crazy forecast happened because trump fired all the good forecasters because someone hurt trumps feelings. The weather system is evaporating as though it never even existed. Central Texas will become a full fledged DESERT by 2035. There are serious weather alterations ongoing globally that will drastically change sensible weather over the next 5 years. One of the results of this, in central Texas, will be hotter summers, cruelly frigid winters, with extremely dry conditions. It's already happening. I am losing plants every winter. You can no longer grow lemons down here. It gets way too cold in February and is extremely dry.
Anyway, the much vaunted weather system in central Texas is simply disappearing into nothingness. Tomorrow will be 99 degrees with a few clouds. The rapidly dissipating system means I get to deliver tonight!
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5 hours ago, snowfan said:
25 degrees on Christmas Day with a line of heavy snow squall storms moving through. Calling it now. Our backs will pay for this.
fixed
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2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:
we have a sure winnah.
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8 hours ago, frd said:
74/45 at 2:00 PM 8/30/25.......... is this the Matrix ?
Nope this is the Beginning of one of the best Winters in Mid Atlantic history.
It's starting.
I am SO HAPPY for you guys! This winter is going to be unbelievably snowy cold and unendingly FUN!
Winter 2025-26
in Mid Atlantic
Posted
That could be. I'd love to see another 1977 in the East, but with a massive side of 2013-2014.
I am just dying to see you guys get snowed in so many times while getting such frigid air, piling up the pack storm after storm after storm after storm, until your arms fall off from digging so much snow in a real life version of an incredible Jebman/George BM type low sun season with absolutely NO MERCY, snow so damn deep in the DC metropolitan region that shoveled canyons actually collapse from too much snow on the sides from piled up snow.