Jebman
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Posts posted by Jebman
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11 hours ago, GaWx said:
I know this Nino is headed toward 175 year record obliterating status. Be that as it may, is Maue being just a bit overly-dramatic for clicks/likes? It sounds so dramatic that it sounds like sarcasm:
He originally said this way back in April:I hope with all my rain weenie heart, that this is IS INDEED the very WORST Nino in 1000 years! Because if it is, no matter how east-based this thing turns out to be, Texas will get very very wet indeed! And, I will be the happiest man on earth!
BRING ON THAT TROPICAL PACIFIC FRESHWATER FIREHOSE! Solder that puppy FULL-ON!
I want to watch those water levels rise, and to be able to say at long last, This is beginning to remind me of Ian in Ft Myers in 2022 !!!!! Or of Harvey back in 2017 !!!!
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10 hours ago, TriPol said:
Super El Nino gives us a super sub-tropical jet which, if merged with the pacific jet or arctic jet during a cold time in december, january or feb, can give us historic blizzards. There is going to be an incredibly active STJ Autumn/Winter. We just need a bit of cold air to go with that and BOOM. We have never ever seen anything like this before -- it's going to be very exciting to watch.
Couldn't have said this better myself. Stock up on grub, IPA's, shovels and salt. This could be bigger than anything ever experienced before in the Mid Atlantic.
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I have a question: If this record Nino goes very very very very very far east-based, does this mean places far west like Texas will end up missing out of some or most of the rain? Someone in an earlier post stated the Nino will be extremely far east-based, and the convection will follow it OUCH! That, does not sound very good for all of us DRY PARCHED TEXANS. Man that would be a massive BUMMER. Because I crave floods Floods FLOODS FLOODS!!!!
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2 hours ago, dailylurker said:
I'm pretty excited for winter. I'm one phone call away from closing a deal on a seasonal cabin rental at Barns Corner, NY. That's ground 0 on the Tug Hill. It's from Dec 1 to February 31. If my location isn't being hit directly I'll still be able to quickly get right where I'll need to be from base camp on the top of the hill. I won't be far from the Adirondacks if I need to get even higher up in elevation. Pretty exciting times.
You are HARD CORE! It's only Aug 1 and ALREADY JONESING for heavy snows!
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Every little chance of rain, weaknesses in the subtropical ridge, and frontal boundaries, are dumping rain on us. We had a 10 percent chance of a weak frontal boundary this afternoon. Well guess what we got smacked by 1.3 inches of torrential rain. Now we are up to 35.7 inches. Hard to believe nearly 3 FEET by early August down here!
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3 hours ago, TheDreamTraveler said:
The 2015-2016 winter was absurdly unremarkable except for that monster blizzard. I almost got my entire seasons worth of snow just from that one storm alone. Otherwise it barely snowed at all.
Dale City got 27 inches of snow from GB16 (The Great Blizzard of 2016). Back in those days I could still dig snow. I ended up digging lots of people out. Many of my neighbors asked me to, several of them remarked about how I wanted all the snow and one even asked for Jebman Standards lmao.
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Extending that Y-axis is extremely good news for me.
BRING IT THE HELL ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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3 hours ago, snowman19 said:
IMO we ain’t seen nothing yet. Once this massive WWB and DWKW do their dirty work over the next month or so, I think we pop +12C subsurface anomalies in the EPAC
Are you saying the Nino will hit 12 C ? if so I am just elated! That should ROID up that STJ so much that Texas will resemble Waterworld in places!!!
There is nothing in this world that gladdens my heart more, than watching that water level rise from a flood!
Watching water levels rise in Ft Myers Beach from Ian truly gladdened my heart. I have watched this shweet vid probably hundreds of times! I LOVE storm surge!!! The transformation between 1:00:00 and 1:30:00 was so fascinating! I loved this ENTIRE VID! I am absolutely IN SUBLIME LOVE with the STORM SURGE!
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11 hours ago, snowman19 said:
Completely agree. I actually think the PDO flips positive by the end of fall. Probably not by a lot, likely weakly positive but positive nonetheless.
And @EasternLI Good catch with the +QBO and the STJ. The STJ is going to be roided up and raging this fall and winter. Super El Niño/++PMM/+QBO….it’s the perfect storm. Likely record-breaking strong.
I am going to be in rainy El Nino Heaven all autumn, winter and spring with that RAGING RECORD NINO STJ!
This calls for an outright Brobdingnagian Wooo-Hoooo!
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54 minutes ago, snowman19 said:
Very strong signal for a warm east this December….El Niño/+QBO has been a slam dunk for that since 1979. And I would be shocked if the southwest isn’t wet this winter given the super Nino/++PMM combo that really juices the STJ
I love your thinking, snowman! I want tons of rain! I want transport of moisture from the deep tropics, too! This is a monster Nino! I want monster rains this autumn and winter and in Spring 2027!
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1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:
Took advantage of the excellent weather yesterday to hike sky meadows. Only an hour ride from NOVA and nearly a straight shot on 66 West. Wasn't expecting too much, but was blown away by the views it offered. Highly recommend to anyone wanting to go on a relatively easy escape into nature. Best part of course was the weather. Mid to low 70s in the forest with nice dewpoints too. Also had the moon as nice friend the whole hike!
You guys are making me so jealous! It wont get this cool for me til November down here.
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It's 3.15am Texas time today July 24 2026 and we have light rain from Bertha.
Guess all that SHEAR wasn't quite as strong as had been thought, huh?
This is Jeb, reporting to you LIVE from Buda, Texas where we ARE getting some light rain from Bertha's remnants. Temperature 79 degrees, dewpoint 77. Winds NE about 4 mph.
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Some of Bertha's rains are only 30 miles to my east right now!!!!!!
The NWS is wrong about the shear. Some of us ARE going to see rain from Bertha!
Read 'em and weep, Texans who are too far north for rain lol.
NWS needs to update the grids in my region. Ha ha degreed mets are falling behind on local Bertha impacts LMAO!!!
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha heh!
BRING IT BERTHA BRING IT!!!
This will be an autumn and a winter long-remembered, for devastating floods all over the south and eastern US, probably for generations! I'll be blasting 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s and Gen Z tracks at 110 decibels as I conduct epic jebwalks to measure water rises in my local region during all the excessive, extreme rain events throughout the monster Nino!
Jebman, the Texan Flood Chaser lol!
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There are flash flood warnings just west of Bertha's position right now, for 3-5 inches of life-giving rain! Maybe Bertha will get just east of Buda and gift me with 5 inches of flood-provoking rain!!
The El Nino is getting so monstrous that I am really looking forward to this autumn and winter with incredible amounts of rain!!!! That subtropical jet is gonnabe LOADED with quintillions of tons of tropical moisture!
The title to the Nino on the main sub on this board should be changed to 2026-2017 Brobdingnagian El Nino.
We have never seen a Nino like this since this globe cooled.
This is NOT a Super Nino. It's well beyond that now, this thing is an all-time historic monster.
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15 hours ago, snowman19 said:
As strong El Niño as it gets…..
And the subsurface heat/DWKW is reloading and strengthening under the 30C warm pool and is going to get pushed to the South American coast in the next month by the DWKWs and WWBs. The thermocline depression is ridiculous
Edit: @LakePaste25 The lines are showing the 20C isotherm depth vs climatology 20C isotherm depth in the thermoclineThe excellent news keeps on coming! We are gonna have such an exciting very rainy fall/winter here in Texas! Bring on that MONSTER NINO and the Brobdingnagian subtropical jet!!!!!!! And, bring on highly abnormal moisture feeds from the deep tropics, straight into South Central Texas!!!! Bring on moisture soundings over my region with water content 25 deviations above normal!
This place is soon gonnabe flood central!!!! Lookin forward to some truly EPIC jebwalks near where the waters are rising, while I use my old snow ruler to measure the water depth just like the old days back in the DMV!
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6 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:
Beautiful morning out. On ffx county parkway where it overpasses 50 could finally see past the blue ridge way to the distant mountains. Otherwise, mid 60s and low humidity means I get to wear a jacket today to coach!
I am jealous of your cool July weather!
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On 6/15/2026 at 5:55 PM, MillvilleWx said:
You give me that hemispheric look and I'll take my chances
You'll take your chances. You'll get up the next morning and have to tunnel out your window because of all the snow! That's what we mean by getting JanuBuried lol
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On 7/19/2026 at 10:29 AM, WxUSAF said:
09-10 was modiki (west based). Best we can hope for this year is probably basin wide.
2009 - 2010 was unbelievable. I never saw so much snow in Dale City back when I lived there, and I got to go to Charles Town back in 2009-10 and I got to see SO DAMN MUCH SNOW IT WAS RIDICULOUS! I was taking so many pictures of it with my phone! I was also 'stealing other people's snow' at 3am over there, jebwalking in drifts literally over my head and wallowing around like a true blue snow weenie! This obsessive walking is one reason why I am so crippled today, I can barely walk anymore.
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Houston is getting storms originating from Bertha's circulation. Maybe this bodes better for Buda in a few days! Those organized storms are only 130 miles East-southeast from Buda!!!!!!
I want my flooding rains BAD, far BADDER than Michael Jackson!!
I crave to see that water level rise so bad!
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Hey meteorologists on here, I would like to politely request that EWX consider going ahead and hoisting an Extreme Heat Warning for North Hays County in Texas just for July 23, tomorrow. Highs will top out 100 degrees and dewpoints may well be in the lower to middle 70s. Today, July 22, we topped out at 102 degrees and it turned out that our dewpoint was 76. This means that locally here in Buda at the height of the heat this afternoon it felt like at least 119 degrees, perhaps the very low end of the 120s. This is serious heat even down here and we have hundreds of construction workers at it all day in Buda and Kyle, especially seeing that our region is now developing faster than places like Dubai in the UAE. The tech boom will be centered in Austin Texas and soon this region will have millions more people, especially as we really ramp up the Optimus iterations 3 - 5 General AI and Super AI robots in 2 years. Just a request. If there is an Extreme Heat package in place sometimes they will let those workers off earlier. (Maybe).
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1 hour ago, katabatic said:
A beautiful evening to see a free Fleetwood Mac knockoff band at Wisp. 70 with a breeze - heading to the upper 40s tonight. Yes please and thank you.
I am jealous! Because of the weather, and because I grew up with Fleetwood Mac tracks! Many of them remind me of big snowstorms!
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Buda is currently 100 degrees with a 76 degree dewpoint. This means it feels like it's 116 degrees in the shade! It topped out at 102 degrees, which means then the heat index felt like 119 or 120 degrees earlier!
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5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:
It's placement geographically is beside the point.
The mechanism for it's persistence/necessity in the science of CC attribution et al, or for whatever reason, gets in the way of the NAO/tripole assumption. That is the point.
Thus, relying on it as a predictor for atmospheric behavior tendencies/correlations therein, are riskier - because those are driven by disparate total physical processes. The NAO/tripole physics are different than the AMOC for it being a ( possible ) geologic permanent change.
I'm not saying the AMOC is collapsing, per se. Maybe it is. Maybe it isn't. However, just advising that it is being scienced as occurring for that reason. So We'll see... But, if so ...the cold blob reflects the AMOC changes... not an NAO forcing (necessarily).
Put even simpler... cold blog exists, NAO is biased positive. Tough cookies.
The other aspect, the longer term correlation between the Pacific and NAO is transmitted through the N/A via the PNA. It's positive. Which means, when the PNA is positive, the NAO tends to be positive, and vice versa. So ...I'm not sure how a positive ENSO/+PNA correlation favors that -NAO ... it doesn't based on that. But that may not be the whole story - there may be something specific to El Nino that gets that anti-correlation to realize more frequently, during the El Nino winter? These kinds of exceptions exist in principle... worth looking for that. I kind of doubt it though. In the meantime, it makes intuitive sense that a +PNA jives with a +NAO and vice versa, because of winter planetary wave lengths and the speed of the basal flow. It would be hard to maintain a western N/A highly curvaceous flow and then expect the flow to bend back around into block over the D. Straight region, when flow is necessarily screwing along at ludicrous speeds due to the hemispheric gradient during DJF. Fast flow does not like curved surfaces... that's just physics. Curving the flow increases centrifugal -acceleration; and so as the flow speeds up that force is trying to cancel the curvature and flatten out. Ex, in April the flow tends to close off vortices; there is deceleration in the as the geopotential gradient is collapsing. The flow folds in on itself with the loss of basal velocity.
That's probably why a latter March thru early May -NAO boat ride isn't that uncommon. Because the flow collapses and the excessive wave transport gets stranded and loads that region.
4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:I'm suspecting that we're heading for a troughy/humid end game myself.
If so ... that would lower the "big heat" transport circumstances, blocked by ongoing synoptic balancing. Doesn't mean it can't happen... talking 'tendency' here ( sorry, not you per se but the common reader tends to formulate extremes in their interpretation .. failing idiosyncratic nuance and/or 'lean' )
We'll see... but there's a leitmotif in the major ensemble sources to pin a trough here regardless of the Pacific. Ex, over the next 7 days the eastern Pac passes through an impressive -PNA for mid summer... but we don't see heights rising much E of Chicago. Proooobably this is owing to the shortened wave lengths of summer in general - how that gets away with that. But here's the rub... that positive anomaly over the N-NE Pac decays, and the pattern moves ends up with trough anyway. So we're fucked either way, is what the modeling argues. Okay - Altho some folks have a more toxic relationship with heat expectations so for them, this is probably the opposite of fucked intimation haha
Typhoon, Please post a hell of a lot more!
I have always enjoyed reading your discourses!
Love it! Post a LOT more!
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CONGRATS everyone!
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
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I love the forecast for south central Texas: Wetter than normal and stormy! Bring on that Pacific firehose of rain! I am actually thinking of changing my name here to Floodman! Here's to hoping for truly EPIC Brobdingnagian amounts of rain this autumn, winter on well into spring 2027!