Jebman

On 7/1/2025 at 7:15 AM, DanTheMan said:

Happy July! The days are getting shorter

You're gonna love what's coming this fall and winter.

On 6/30/2025 at 9:41 PM, George BM said:

Forecast Discussion

Thursday, July 24, 2025 3:28PM EDT

 

Our break from active and life-threatening weather has once again come to an unfortunate end. From extreme wind storms, high-end derechos, major/violent tornado outbreaks and even an all-time historic blizzard to start out May a few years back, we just cannot seem to catch any break. I mean seriously, what the heck happened at the turn of this decade where since then seemingly EVERY SINGLE KIND of weather event cranks it up to MAXIMUM POWER and causes MAXIMUM pain in this region.

Carrying on…

For the past couple of days, we’ve been enjoying unseasonably cool conditions with highs in the 70-75F range and lows ranging from the M/U 50s in urban areas and 40s in the mountains. This is courtesy of a longwave trough that has settled in over the eastern half of the US. However, it has become overcast this afternoon with high clouds from Dexter which is currently approaching our area from the south. Dexter is a strengthening major hurricane located off of the SC/GA coastline moving northeast. Dexter is beginning to interact with the trough that is centered just west of our region in the Appalachians/ eastern Ohio Valley. This will become cutoff as we go through the evening and, yet again, this will allow a major tropical system (in this case, Dexter) to get captured by the trough rather than kicked and pinwheel it north and then northwestwards into our region.

Rain will spread into the region from southeast to northwest through the night as temps hold in the 60s areawide with the cool air from the trough still in place. This cool air and trough interaction will mean two things.

1.     The severe/tornado threat will be low, though not zero, especially in far eastern zones that get a healthy surge of low-level warm tropical air allowing for an elevated tornado threat there.

2.     However, the trough interaction will significantly increase the rainfall rates to the northwest and west of the center of Dexter.

As a result, the rain will become very heavy over the region by sunrise tomorrow morning. During the day tomorrow torrential rains with increasingly high winds will batter the greater DC and Baltimore metros with 1.5 to 3 inch per hour rainfall rates becoming commonplace and winds gusting up to hurricane force (75-80+ mph gusts) by the late afternoon/early evening hours.

The wrath of Dexter will reach its climax tomorrow night as the center moves northwest and loops or stalls over/near the Chesapeake Bay and mouth of the Potomac. Winds could gust up to 100+mph across the forecast area as heavy to torrential rains continue leading to basically universal power outages with significant structural damage.

Over the course of the day on Saturday, Dexter will slowly spin down over the region allowing heavy rains and high winds to continue throughout the day. By Sunday, rain should finally taper off to moderate showers with breezy conditions continuing through the day.

Rainfall totals:

For the greater metro areas rainfall totals of 24 to 40 inches will be commonplace with localized amounts of up to 50 inches. Some spots in the mountains could get in excess of 5 feet of rain.

Winds:

Wind gusts will reach tropical storm strength from SE to NW between 5am and midday Friday. They will reach hurricane strength from SE to NW between midday and 7pm Friday.

The strongest winds will occur between 9pm Friday and 6am Saturday with wind gusts in excess of 125mph possible in eastern zones and the Bay. Peak gusts of 90 to 110mph look most likely in the metros for now. Gusts of 75 to 90mph is the most likely scenario in the mountains and along the I-81 corridor. Though higher elevations could potentially gust as high as 110mph.

Once this is all out of here, most likely by Monday, the rest of the coming week looks fairly benign as we head into August with slightly below normal temps and dry conditions for the period… which would be great as, for literally the twentieth time in the past five years, no one will have power. Look, just take care of each other and look out for the elderly and homeless. Be kind. Thoughtful… I'm outta here. 

 

An exhausted forecaster wannabe: George BM

Forecast Discussion SUNDAY JULY 27 2025

George BM is one of the foremost senior forecasters we have ever seen. No one can forecast storms like this force of nature. GBM is at it all day and all night on into the new day, will keep right on, displaying almost outright supernatural energy, stamina, and incredible insight into the vagaries of meteorology!

George BM, this is one of your finest EVER! Thank you so much!

This weather community would never be the same without you!

In other news, Everyone stay safe and enjoy all the rains that have been falling on the DC Metro Region in the past 24 hours. Here's to more of the same overnight on into tomorrow!

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Steady rain continues. 76 degrees and 2.13 inches at this point.  Yard is a soggy, green mess. Much different from last couple of summers.  Wonder if we are setting ourselves up for an historic  tropical flood event at some point this season.

We have a Winnah!

Congrats everyone who got rain! 

2025-26 is going to be a snowFULL FREEZE.

23 minutes ago, high risk said:

LWX issued their flood watch based at least partially on the HREF, which is going to end up doing very well highlighting the area of heaviest rain:

 

Congratulations, Everyone in the Mid Atlantic. Enjoy this. Stay safe.

36 minutes ago, katabatic said:

We are all waiting for the storms out here in GaCo to cool us off.

So hot for the squirrels its LMAO!!!!

Hope you all get lots of excellent thunderstorms with lots of rain and very cool temps!

101/79 is way too hot for the Mid Atlantic.

7 hours ago, amarshall said:

Thank you. *Blushing*

You're very, very welcome! Love the NE Ski Thread in the winter! Many breathtaking pics and stories!

8 hours ago, JakkelWx said:

I go in friends pool around 3 PM. Pool is 88. I come out of pool to dry off. I start sweating in 3 minutes. I go back in pool. Repeat

I go back home, turn the sprinkler on at 8 PM. I run through the sprinklers and get my head all wet. I dry myself off in front of big ass fan. I step away from fan and start sweating again within 5 minutes. I do the whole process again 3 more times, then i finally decide to go inside. 

This is a very serious situation. Your region is in an extreme heat wave for your part of the country. Check on relatives and the elderly. Stay cool and hydrated, even at night. Be extremely careful doing strenuous activities especially in the sun. Take lots of breaks and get in a cool pool in the SHADE or better yet in the AC with an industrial fan blasting cool wind chill values.

7 hours ago, KAOS said:

It was hot...

 

 

 

When that heat index hits 119 degrees down here in Texas, I start getting sick. Drink water like a hot horse and get into air conditioning. Or crawl into an ice cooler at 7-11. This kind of heat is a CRITICAL EMERGENCY!

Right now in Charles Town 91 degrees, with a TORRID 79 DEGREE DEWPOINT!

That feels like an anteroom of Hell at 106!

MGM National Harbor High 101 Low 80!! DP only 62.

You guys are burning right up!

10 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Truly disgusting and we still have tomorrow!

We'll take this off your hands and leave you with an extreme early season cold front from your October timeframe.

You guys are stealing all of our 100s. We only managed 93 today.

I'm jealous.

We are supposed to get weeks and weeks of 104, while your region gets severe training thunderstorms.

MGM National Harbor, they scored a 100/77 today. I am getting VERY JEALOUS up in here, now!

Why in the heck is Austin struggling to hit 90 while the entire East Coast is 100 or better with lows almost 80??????

In June!!! ????? What the sam hill is going on here? Why is it hotter on the East Coast than anywhere in Texas?

Holy Smokes! Dale City hit 100 degrees before we did in Texas!

I just found out, I am getting my temperature readings right now for fourteen cities. Its hot as hell up there! YOU GOT US BEAT! The world is all turned upside down and inside out! We were a cool 93 with many cumulus clouds.

At the rate things are going, Austin will see snow fly in the late fall before Washington does! lmao

J/K. No way. Washington DC will get frozen to death by 2009/10 UberBlocking along with epic Mammoth-like blizzard, after epic Mammoth-like blizzard.

The Mid Atlantic will get a serious taste of Little Ice Age conditions, before the LIA sets in for real in 2030-31.

On 2/22/2025 at 5:51 AM, amarshall said:

Final musings sitting in the CDG airport on the way home from Meribel. For an entire week I didn’t see one lift breakdown . They have 183 lifts of all shapes sizes and makes . While watching social media at home all I saw was lift break downs and missing ski days . The stat I read is that the Les 3 vallees system serves 265k people a day. We never waited more than 10 minutes . There are zero lifties. It takes some getting used to but everyone gets on the lift chaotically but fast .

The crazy thing for a first time European skier was the lack of safety. It really slowed me down knowing that if I were to wipe out at 50+ mph I could end up down a ravine and off a cliff . My 12 year old terrified me all week who is sowing his oats with speed trying to keep up with his 15 yr old brother . The sledding at night on the mountain would get an American mountain sued into the Stone Age. Everyone gets drunk and sleds on the mountain and it’s encouraged. Absolutely amazing .

The drinking in general on French mountains is 100100101x worse than American mountains . People staggering drunk trying to get down the hill. The lunches at Michelin star restaurants were mind blowing . I have no idea what we spent on food but it certainly negated the lift ticket savings .

The grooming blows away American mountains. Europeans never do first chair and if you could temper your apres you could get absolute corduroy perfection for an hour before a European showed their face .

There’s no roof rack on a hearse and my kids can skip college. I don’t think I can ski at Attitash in -10 ever again.

No one wears masks in Europe . First masks we’ve seen in a week in the Delta line coming home to Boston.

My son and I hiking (with a guide) .







.

This post by you amarshall, is by far one of the finest and most classiest I have ever read on any forum, anywhere, in the past 20 years. It's on my new phpBB3 SciWx Forum and on my new MediaWiki wiki. I have to move 20 years worth of memories from SciWx 1 because Invision Power Boards has visions of grandeur; they will be charging 100 dollars a MONTH for IPB boards like AmWx. IPB executives have Mediterranean and Cancun yachts that you and I will pay for. I am doing a lifewide review of everything in the past 60 years that I can remember experiencing and this post of yours is most assuredly top shelf. SNE/NNE Posters have got some of the most incredible stories of all time and I am archiving many of what I think are THE BEST in the past 20 years. Especially in the Skiing Thread here.

On 6/19/2025 at 5:18 PM, clskinsfan said:

More likely is relative imo. We are on an incredible fail streak right now. Especially out here where it is SUPPOSED TO SNOW in the winter. And maybe that is the deal. The fringes have become the same as the cities. And you need to be way out at elevations that no one wants to live at. As far as big storms go? No Idea. IMO and MO only the Mid Atlantic cold anomaly is F'ing with our weather HERE. The ocean currents are all screwed up compared to historically. No clue what that means for us anymore. Also volcanism is starting to increase all over the planet as well. 

You guys are gonna get your cold. You are gonna get your snow, too. Starting in 2030. I'll be way too old. But get ready. Buy 50 Jebman Shovels, several snowblowers and get some construction equipment. You're gonnabe charging exorbitant rates for snow removal. You guys are gonna get so damn tired of snow you will move south!

We are due. Nor'easters will clobber DCA with heavy snows and Vodka cold, over and over and over again.

DCA: 106

IAD: 103

BWI: 102

RIC: 101

I am late but I said what the fook.

Hey I am a last minute! I am a last minute!

I'll confess WHY I completely forgot about the summer max contest.

I am as severely badly head over heels in LOVE, with ancient Egyptology, especially hieroglyphs, now, as I was once in love with jebwalking in the snow and ice and wallowing in stolen drifts at 3 in the morning. Stuff like Gobekli Tepe are now my favorites, but it's the egyptological stuff, the hieroglyphs, cursive hieroglyphs, hieratic, demotic, coptic, and even outright Egyptian Arabic, in fact ANY alphabet not like our own, has become a kind of Indiana Jones-like fascination for me. I have also been literally swept right off my feet by the many Kings and Pharaohs and all the Dynasties and Pyramids, I want to KNOW THEM ALL !! I long to immerse myself in thousands of ancient Egyptian hieroglyphics, just like Daniel Jackson of SG-1 !!! I mean to learn every last archaeologist who ever studied Egyptology, like Howard Carter!

This, is why I have totally forgotten the hallowed Summer Max Contest.

I absolutely adore all those hieroglyphics. I love to take jebwalks in 105 weather while pretending I am down in Lower Egypt like Howard Carter making epic discoveries and then meticulously cataloguing every last scrap of pottery that even has one tiny cuneiform or hieroglyphic on it! And, I'd make damn sure every last artifact gets transported to the Egyptian Museum in Cairo!

You can add Mayan hieroglyphs, too! All four codices!

George BM, July 1 and a brand spankin new Banter Thread is approaching. PLEASE write us up an EPIC hurricane yarn featuring an epic 270 mph hurricane getting drawn into the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay then going stationary right in the middle of it with Bay water temps in the upper 80s. 

Lets start this Summer off with a BANG! HUGE rainbands dumping hyper efficient rain rates, Bay of Fundy-like SURGE and epic Banda Aceh-like waves on top of the surge and tons of tornadoes! Widespread 150 year freshwater flooding, whipped into a Katrina-like froth by the banshee winds over the entire Mid Atlantic! Extreme rain tallies in the Appalachians! Entire towns in western Virginia getting swept out onto the Piedmont by extreme floodwaters!

If there is any professional forecaster in the National Weather Service who can portray this, it has got to be YOU, George BM!!!

4 hours ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Now that the summer solstice has just passed, I begin to wonder...when does the sun angle no longer allow for near triple-digit temperatures or hotter??  I'm guessing maybe...around Dec. 21 typically??? 

Around Jan 25. That's typically when the sun angle declines just enough for you guys to cool down into the lower 90s for highs.

amarshal is a one in a 999 decillion to the 899quadrillionth power Poster up in the New England Sub. Check out this gem

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/60970-2024-2025-ski-season-thread/?do=findComment&comment=7670618

I copied his post on my brand new phpBB3 forum, ScienceWeather 2, and took at least fifteen screenshots. IPB forums are gonna increase to 99 dollars a MONTH. I can't pay it. I gotta evacuate 20 years of memories from Science Weather 1 or lose them FOREVER! I'd estimate that during the 20 year long blogging craze I amassed about 10,000 blog links that now need to be tested one by one then re-recorded. Damn IPB straight to HELL! If YOU run an Invision Power Forum you are in this mess and they already got your ballz to the Wall with a sledgehammer.

IPB creators have yachts in the Med that we all need to pay for. That's the reason for the abrupt increase in Invision Power Board forum premiums.

URGENT NOTE TO RANDY Stormtracker, If this is an Invision Power Board, you  just might want to look for a new forum software right now. They are going to Version 5, you have to pony up 69 dollars to have this forum upgraded to Version 5, PLUS 99 dollars a month. I am going stir CRRAZY trying to keep twenty years of precious memories, because once they FORCE everyone using an IPB forum up to V5, all forums will pay up the 99 dollars a month premiums or lose their forum forever. FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCCCCCCKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK!!!!!!!!

On 6/19/2025 at 8:04 AM, weatherwiz said:

The one other thing I really need to start doing is something like a weekly monitoring/assessment once we enter the Fall. Take some time and assess the real-time global regime, analyze how forecast models are evolving the pattern globally, and closely analyze the medium/long range and then try and do some sort of verification once we get into that time range. I just hope I get time to do this...I start grad school in a few months and doing 2 classes + still working so I am going to have to discipline myself

That's gonnabe important because this is going to be a massively EPIC winter for snow and Little Ice Age magnitude cold, all up and down the Eastern and Northeastern Coasts. You'll be tracking the models right alongside us plus going to school and working.

On 6/16/2025 at 6:05 AM, mdhokie said:

We have seen a bunch of green "inch" worms the last couple weeks. At least the lake is full with all the rain we've had, would be nice to get some warmer temps, haven't had the guts to jump in yet 

No guts, No Glory lol

Enjoy the rain and stay safe!