Jebman

No doubt about it. Rain chances for next weekend just fell into death valley.

Texas is well west of the Super Nino Moisture Plume.

No rain for us throughout the Nino.

Southeast will be Waterworld though.

Worst drought in Texas history shall have taken place during one of the strongest El Ninos in all of recorded history.

We do DRY like a BOSS.

On 10/12/2026 at 9:59 AM, Terpeast said:

I wouldn’t read too much into this event since it had tropical origins, but either way I’m glad we’re getting more rains and that the heaviest was along the piedmont and mountains. I wouldn’t be surprised to see qpf fields like this throughout the winter. Could be a big year for the ski resorts, and mostly rain for the lowlands outside of (maybe) a well timed storm with cold air. 

There are going to be multiple instances where arctic air will time well with moisture and the Sub will get totally annihilated by snow. This is no ordinary Nino.

Stock up on multiple Jebman Shovels, your favorite foods, metric tons of IPA's, plenty of beer, salt and even a snow blower or two.

20 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Not your typical strong El Nino

What this means is:

Mid Atlantic will see more cold air intrusions, some of which WILL time with immense moisture to produce HECS in DC;

Texas will get chilly but end up dry as crud. What else is new.

So, in summary----- EXCITING atypical Nino Winter in the Mid Atlantic which will have frequent Siberian intrusions, some resulting in major snows, flooding rains in the Southeast, and cool weather in the Southwest and mostly dry (Texas is well west of The Plume), and the Midwest will be drier than normal, milder than normal, West and Pac NW will be milder with some storminess and the SNE/NE may see a few Nor'easters.

Congrats everyone!

C'mon guys. Rain is hitting the DMV. I'd like to see some obs please

We are gonna record the ENTIRE Super El Nino Moisture Plume and its historic effect on the DMV.

That radar is developing as it approaches the DMV. Elements are getting bigger and more expansive, and the green is deepening into yellow orange. There may even be outright REDS with time. It should be kept in mind that this is a tropical environment in which rain will be very, very efficient and will pile up quickly. The Mid Atlantic is also situated squarely within the Infamous Super El Nino Moisture Plume and will remain so well into next year and many many numerous rains will drastically pile up rainfall tallies into outright ridiculous territory over the next 8 months at least.

I am also becoming very Jealous of all your rain and also of your plight of getting so damn much rain over the next 8 months!

7 hours ago, LongRanger said:

What are "swooping hodographs," other than a great name for a rock band according to Dave Barry?

That did it. That's what i'm gonna call my new Gen Alpha/Gen Z Band. Swooping Hodographs.

Silver lining was the storm moved so fast, many places probably ended up with half the forecasted rain.

This thing is moving its rain shield north so fast it is almost in south Virginia!

Plenty of rain coming for N VA and the DMV! Its truckin!

Check out Rogers Pass in Montana at 6700 feet. They might pile up about 33 inches of snow!

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=99&y=149&site=tfx&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=98&map_y=149

This storm is moving pretty quickly - That may well be the saving grace for many areas with respect to rainfall tallies. The rain is already out of the coastal areas; this storm is now all about the inland regions. It's really truckin'! I think at 18 mph!

MAMMOTH ALERT !!!! ALEET ALEET!

A potent cold front will slam into the Sierra Saturday possibly mixing with moisture from Rachel which could result in some wet snow Sunday into Monday in Mammoth and Palisades with some accumulating snow at elevations above 8000 feet.

Uh-oh. What will super nino moisture do to the Sierra ski resorts at high elevations like 9000 feet this winter?

Got some watches in Virginia already

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
143 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ015>017-032-101000-
/O.NEW.KRNK.FA.A.0009.261010T1500Z-261012T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-
Patrick-
Including the cities of Whitetop, Dobson, Galax, Troutdale, Stuart,
West Jefferson, Boone, Floyd, Wilkesboro, Sparta, Independence, and
Volney
143 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of North Carolina, including the following areas,
  Alleghany NC, Ashe, Surry, Watauga and Wilkes and southwest
  Virginia, including the following areas, Carroll, Floyd, Grayson
  and Patrick.

* WHEN...From Saturday morning through Sunday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
  Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Low-water crossings
  may be flooded. Storm drains and ditches may become clogged with
  debris. Extensive street flooding and flooding of creeks and rivers
  are possible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Upslope rainfall from a rather strong southeasterly Low level jet
    from the remnants of Isaias will bring increased precipitation
    along the crest of the southern Blue Ridge from Floyd county
    extending southwestward towards Watauga county. Widespread
    rainfall totals of 2-4 inches with locally higher totals in the
    5-6 range will be possible, especially for areas like Meadows of
    Dan, Boone, and Blowing Rock. These higher totals may lead to
    isolated instances of landslides along slopes that have been
    modified by humans like embankments or cut slopes. These areas
    may also see increased rises on local streamflows that may lead
    to flooding across low-water crossings.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

EB

Congrats on more rain! Dale City tallies shall challenge then surpass our meager amounts, 40.7 for the year.

Enjoy this autumn, winter and well on into late spring in 2027. Mid Atlantic is right in the Plume! So is Destin, FL, as they are most assuredly finding out right about now. Some Southeastern communities will eclipse 20 inches easy, especially with training tropical thunderstorms.

20 hours ago, forkyfork said:

this event is stronger and further east plus we have 30 years of warming on top of it. come on man

That's a good point, forky. I'd forgotten about the 30 years of warming on top of what is a very strong Nino event.

This is going to be a highly satisfying storm.

It is still intensifying and might touch Cat 3.

ANTECEDENT FRESHWATER: Soils are hypersaturated. They might get to see 15 additional inches of rain

Winds felling trees: Ground is saturated. It won't take much wind to topple every last tree in that saturated soil. Look out houses, buildings, cars and people trying to jebwalk in this thing.

Gulf of Mexico Bathymetry: Shape of the bottom will enable the storm to push a lot of ocean up onto the low lying coast resulting in incredible storm surge! People will get to watch that water go up, even gushing UP through drains!

There is a possibility of more rain than expected with this. The moisture will have nowhere to go thanks to a blocking high over the Mid Atlantic. South Georgia, West Florida SE Alabama are all under the gun with this system!

APPLICATION: Very exciting storm, satisfying rain amounts, strong winds and lots of falling trees along with storm surge flooding and freshwater flooding exacerbated, thanks to saturated grounds because of antecedent heavy rains before this storm. I fervently wish I was down there in the worst hit regions, I'd be blasting Daddy Yankee tracks and dancing like Smeagle in Lord of the Rings!

Surprise surprise. Isaiah remnants will dump close to two feet of fresh rain on Florida Alabama and Georgia.

That region folks, is SMACK DAB in the midst of the Infamous Super Nino Plume.

This, is only The Beginning for the Southeast, right thru June 2027.

If you live in a low lying community, write it off right now. Those places won't dry off until late next summer.

Watch out Gulf Coast! Another tropical system will impact somewhere between New Orleans and Pensacola on Oct 10 with 7 to 12 inches of rain!

Welcome to a strong Nino! It's going to be heavy rain after heavy rain after heavy rain after heavy rain after heavy rain after heavy rain after heavy rain in the Southeast for at least the next 8 months. Soils will become hypersaturated then floods will occur and not have time to recede. Entire neighborhoods will be inundated and stay that way well into 2027. The Southeast is going to be particularly hard-hit by way too much rain and flooding will persist.

9 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

This summer is never going to end.

GREAT! Headin' right back to another Royal Caribbean ship for a vacay.

WHOA you guys have 45 degree dewpoints and dropped to 48 degrees last night in Dale City?!

Congrats!

Central Gulf Coast is getting more rain. These communities usually pick up lots and lots and lots and lots of rain every year. They ARE right on the Gulf Coast, after all. But this autumn/winter/spring 2027 you can multiply that by at least 10. Hope they love living underwater, because that's going to happen.

Then a Campeche tropical feature may hit Texas in a few days.

It's starting. Very Strong El Nino is now interacting with the 500 millibar pressure surface over North America and the United States.

I hope south central Texas gets utterly obliterated by rain. I am dyin to see water come UP thru drains because of flooding.

4 hours ago, RickinBaltimore said:

Hi everyone. If you can, please think some good thoughts for me and my family right now. Dad passed away yesterday afternoon after a series of back and forth trips to the hospital. His lungs just finally stopped working. He fought like hell that is for sure to keep going, but his body was finished. 

It's an odd feeling right now, after Ravens games I'd give him a call to talk about the game. Today, I'm going to the funeral home to plan his viewing and service.

Rest well Dad. And give Mom all my love. 

Really sorry about your loss. My condolences to you. This reminds me of when my Dad passed away in 2018.

22 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Im loving this. Rare things equals interesting winter ahead. 

 

It will only take one well-timed cold air mass amidst all that moisture = massive snowstorm. Strong Nino winters can offer up opportunities for substantial snows.

7 hours ago, Keith Central PA said:

All winter we surely going to have this discussion. There will be storrms, but will it be cold enough?.Your gonna say perfect track but there is no cold air.

I was gonna say plenty of arctic air but near perfect track. DC scores a major winter storm with about a foot of snow. It might be a wetter snow but its snow. Even in a strong Nino winter.