Jebman

With all the chilly weather and cold rains falling in Wisconsin per my uncle, I think this could turn out to be some unusual Nino with a wet northern tier! And NO RAIN at all in Texas lol.

What else is new.

More rain coming up from the south and possibly from the west-southwest as a Nino Late Summer/Autumn continues to unfold over the DMV

6 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

18z mesos were mostly tragic for our yards. My goodness I’m ready for a giant synoptic rain shield and temps in the 50s

Oh, it's on the way. You're going to get your wish. Lots of cloudy synoptic stratiform rains, one after the other for months and months. This super nino has got the DMV's Name all over it, and the moisture Plume is pointed directly at the Southeast and the DMV Regions. You are going to get lots and lots and lots and lots of giant, Brobdingnagian synoptic rain shields this fall, winter and also well into the Spring of 2027.

Missed again. No surprise. Where's all the Moisture?

It's over the Southeastern and Mid Atlantic. Not over Texas. Never will be. Not with this particular Nino.

I am shyte outta luck.

Man, I was shyte outta luck when I was born.

I'm still shyte outta luck right now with no rain at all and torrential storms miles away.

Austin is under progressive Desertification.

The Southeast and the Mid Atlantic will turn into Waterworld. Just like the movie. Atlanta has several Flash Flood Warnings, some places are getting 3-5 inches of fresh, life-giving rainfall.

I've been saying it. I've been saying it all this time. The Southeast is directly underneath that record moisture plume.

No surprise what is going on around Tallahassee right now: Plenty of torrential rain!

The Southeast: One of the WORST places to be in a super el nino if you do not like major flooding and your beloved neighborhood written off. The PLUME will be residing directly over the Southeast.

If you do not like flooding, get out NOW, while you still can. Head for Austin Texas. We won't have to worry about that nonsense over here. We are well west of the Nino's influences and hundreds of miles safely west of the Plume.

That rain going thru the DMV right now? It is part of a Conga Line of rain that extends clear to Oklahoma right now folks!

Keep right on stackin' those Rain Tallies !    

On 9/9/2026 at 3:08 PM, Nomz said:

Just checked the NWS 7 day highs and i wanna die

Those fronts are on their way. You guys are gonnabe so chilly so soon you won't believe it! And every front, every system that hits the CONUS is gonna go right thru you guys with rain and even more rain! And its gonnabe chilly!

The Nino is already smashing the heck out of the DMV! That Plume has got your alls Name right on it, and will drench the DMV with rain after rain after rain after rain right through July 2027! This is an East-Based Super Nino, and guess what DC'ers?

You are RIGHT IN THE PATH OF IT!

These storms will hit you again and again and again for at least the next 9 months!

Pile on those Rain Tallies!

I'll be looking on with Jealousy while we frantically try to conserve water! DC will NEVER have that problem!

6 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Fringed 

Damn that would put 130 mph north winds over Dale City, but there might be a nice flood on the Potomac! Maybe forcing a lot of water up thru all the drains?

Seems like I am so old these days, that I no longer feel the need to jebwalk in the snow. Not on the ice either. I am so afraid I will fall and get grievously hurt. And I can't dig snow any more. The only thing I want from snow, is to WATCH it smash Mammoth Ski Resort.

But the one thing that I still love and crave for these old days, is excessive rain and destructive floods. Or storm surge like Katrina. Or Banda Aceh-like tsunamis. I love rising water levels, especially when it is coming UP thru all of the drains making the water levels rise ominously.

I guess this is the reason why I shall be DENIED the Super Nino. It's extreme east based and the Plume will be hundreds of miles well east of Austin. South Central Texas will suffer a record DROUGHT in Autumn 2026-Winter 2027 while the East and Southeast get turned into waterworld. I guess Fate has said NO resoundingly to me concerning floods. I shall never get to see one. Imagine that. I love disasters like floods with all my heart and I will never get to see one.

I guess this might be one reason I have now come to love Royal Caribbean cruise ships. They sail over 7,400 feet of Caribbean ocean waters. I want to go on the Icon of the Seas SO DAMN BAD! I will not able to walk very much, but I'll kick back on those benches right next to the outer glass and watch the blue waves go by for hours and hours and hours while drinking gallons and gallons and gallons of Cherry Coca Cola. I'll be able to drain the ship because I will have a Royal Refreshment Package. I will also be eating them out of house and ship eating up all of their crab cakes, because I love giant crab globs and will have a Specialty Package. They better get stocked up but good. I am a food and drink HOG. I shall hog and hog, very politely, every last crab cake I can get my greedy little hands on! I LOVE those crab cakes! I also adore Coca Cola, every last flavor, and Icon of the Seas has something like twelve different Coke flavors. I have already watched every last You Tube video about EVERYTHING ROYAL CARIBBEAN! I am already well-known here in Buda for buying 35 Cokes right off the shelf at 7-11, depleting their immediate supply. Hey, it gets HOT AS HELL down here! Boy did they guffaw when I explained why I want to go on a Royal Caribbean ship like Icon of the Seas! They have every nuance of Coca Cola known to Man! And I'll drink every last one of them! And Coco Love! Those are I think cans of coconut waters! I LOVE COCONUT WATERS! I'll drink them all just like a damn fish!

Don't get me started about Giovanni's! They have lasagna. I'll be eating that up, too. One thing I LOVE about cruise ships is that the cruise industry considers older men like me falling asleep on a shaded pool lounger, to be part of the Experience! I LOVE CRUISE SHIPS! I love the ocean and how incredibly DEEP it is! I love all the waterslides! And all the POOLS! I'll be contentedly floating around in the pool, on my back, trying to pretend I'm in a flood and just trying to stay afloat lmao! And the breakfast stations, all the complimentary sausages, hash browns and roast beef hash! I am gonnabe extremely, supremely happy, even without a real flood to enjoy! And complimentary Taco stations loaded up with mild taco meat and shredded mozzarella! I'll be happily piling it right up then retiring to a convenient kick back bench where I will savor every last bite while happily watching brown lines of Sargassum seaweed passing by the floor to ceiling windows! There is someplace on the ship that has complimentary diced watermelon in these big cups! I love diced watermelon too! I'll savoring cup after cup after cup after cup of the sliced cold watermelon! Might eat them out of house and ship out of melon, too. VERY politely, of course!

You know, this ship could sink! 7400 feet of Caribbean ocean and a nice lap swimming contest only the laps are about 1400 miles long lol! Now THAT would be a decent flood lol!

7 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

.30" in this one.  .55" for the day. 1.5" the past 3 days and 2.8" since Aug 22.

Maybe the tide has finally turned.

Oh, the Tide is gonna turn, allright. This record Nino has the DMV in its sights. This record-strength, record-east based Nino's moisture Plume is also aimed directly at the Mid Atlantic. That STJ will be roided up!

Yeah man, The Tide is definitely gonna turn. A HELL of a lot. You may end up with lower triple digits of inches of rain by Dec 30. You will still have months more of the rain. Might want to build elevated paths over your yard, lol. Or just go ahead and pull the trigger and build an Ark.

Tie the lines to your house's Deck. Might even go ahead and build your Ark out kind of like a kind of miniature Royal Caribbean type ship!!!! Man I LOVE ROYAL CARIBBEAN SO MUCH! Heck I might even fly out there and kick back on your Ark and enjoy the rain.

Texas is gonnabe high and DRY for this one. Ha ha we are waaaaaaaay too far west for this one. Maybe I will still be around for the super Nino in the later 2040s lol. Maybe that one will be west-based and will give Texas record rains.

Hello again DMV! Yet another day of rain for ya!

Welcome to the Record El Nino of 2026-27!

Indiana, PA just surpassed us in yearly rain tallies. We are at 38.40. They are now 38.76. By year's end many places in the East and south will be several feet over us, while south central Texas will be getting wall to wall sunshine and highs in the 80s, even in December. We'll see a few sprinkles maybe some drizzle.

We have been leading most places most of the year so far. Those days are OVER.

It's not hard to understand.

We are too far west for this Record El Nino. So we will be bone dry and warm.

The Nino is so east-based it is setting records. The Plume is also way too far east for us.

Places like Virginia, and the DMV areas appear to be right in the crosshairs. These communities have been getting smashed by repeated instances of heavy rain since at least early August. Look out once that soil gets saturated. Rain will keep right on.

What else is new.

1 hour ago, mdhokie said:

Time for the daily monsoon rains in the Western Maryland mountains. Feels more like Florida.

We don't seem to get normal rain anymore. Its blow out the gullies and wash away all that mulch and top soil from your new landscaping type rains. Even put in rip rap and culverts but those get overwhelmed. 

Just wait til the soil gets hypersaturated! Then you'll get to see something!

Congrats on the rains, DMV!

Welcome to a Record Nino Autumn!

You are all in perfect position for this! The Plume is coming straight at you! It's a massively East-Based Nino and you are right in the middle of it!

Enjoy all those rains! There's a hell of a lot more where those came from! Look out for a Roided-up STJ!

5 hours ago, dailylurker said:

I'm so excited to be staying on the snowiest highland east of the rocky mountains 

DL is ALWAYS chasin' the Snow!

On 8/31/2026 at 8:50 PM, George BM said:

Monday, September 7, 2026 8:25AM EDT

The past week has been one of the most active weeks of stormy weather in the region for a very long time with multiple MCSs and derechos causing repeated instances of widespread tree damage and even some structural damage with the northwest flow around the ridge of high pressure that has been parked to our west-southwest. During the September 1^st through September 6^th period much of the region has received 8 to 14 inches of rain with most areas seeing peak wind gusts from severe thunderstorms during this period in the 70 to 85 mph range. Now we watch as a deepening trough drops into the region with causing the flow locally to back to southerly. With a surface low developing nearby over the region in response to this trough southeasterly surface flow will bring in mid 70sF dewpoints into the region. With Pwats also rising above 2.25 inches and CAPE in excess of 1,000 J/kg along with tall skinnier CAPE profiles. Storms that develop will be very efficient rain producers. With the strongest forcing for accent located over the region numerous storms will be able to develop and train over the same areas leading to a significant flash flooding threat given all of the recent rain.

Numerous bands of showers and thunderstorms will train over the region from late morning through this evening before we see a more uniform area of heavy rain over the region through the night tonight as the surface low strengthens and moves to the east over the northern Chesapeake. There will be a risk for a few tornadoes through the afternoon with embedded supercells given decent low-level shear near the surface low (effective SRH of up to 300 m2/s2) and decent enough 0-3km CAPE (>100 J/kg).

When all is set and done by tomorrow morning most areas would have received an additional 3 to 6 inches of rain with localized areas that get under training bands in excess of 10 inches leading to major flooding. Always remember to turn around don’t drown. It’s not worth it!

...

I crave George BM- Grade rain here in Buda! Too damn bad Austin is way too far west for the Record Nino.

Maybe next time, in the early 2030s.

Congrats on the Rain, DMV Region!

Havin' fun yet?

It's September now and the Nino's effects should be growing day by day upon the 500 Millibar pressure surface over the CONUS.

Beaumont TX will get about 12 inches of fresh rain.

Austin? Not so much. It's all about downsloping and hot as hell for us lol.

We'll take what we can get, but you all know the old saying.

Beggars can't be choosers.

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

Canadian update shows PDO trending positive through Feb-Mar before reversing again.

It shifted the center of the El Nino east. Still has a central event, which is why it is cold for the East. But it is shifting the warm plume/enhanced equator moisture east with each run now.

This is primarily the reason I now expect normal precipitation for Austin thru September in 2027. For this autumn and winter, maybe a couple of inches, and some drizzle.

All of my hopes for at least replenishing rains in Austin are utterly DASHED. Texas WILL run out of water. We will run out of the water because of a catastrophically dry Record El Nino, then we get a catastrophically strong Nina. That strong Nina, in 2027 or in 2028, is why Texas will break so many high temperature records and get so damned DRY that the groundwaters WILL run out and the Colorado River will get lower than anyone in living memory can ever recall. At the same time, the tech buildup in Austin will cause many many many people to move here accelerating the  water uptake with nothing to replenish the water reserves. By 2029 water will be so expensive many will move east into the mid South where there is much more rain.

There is a reason all the trees down here are a third of the height of trees in N Virginia.

It's dry.

We are so forsaken by life-giving rains, that even during the 40 day rain event of deep antiquity, we probably got 40 days of light drizzle. We are used to this. It is NO surprise. Of course we got missed by the strongest El Nino in history! I have always wanted to be caught right in the middle of a record 489 billion year flood for the Ages. Of course, I am shyte out of luck and always will be.

This is a very east-based Nino, moisture plume will orient very far east,(well-away from south central Texas of course) record Nino or not. If you like sunshine, no floods ever, and east based Ninos, come live in Austin. We will have plenty of sun all winter and the average high temperature in January in Austin is 60 degrees! We have the best weather in the entire world, especially if you don't mind perpetual drought and rapidly diminishing water reserves!

Damn I have got to get out of this place! I wanna spend a few years in Cherrapunji, India. Trust me, that place gets plenty of rain!

Nepal stole our flood event. Damn!

14 hours ago, bluewave said:

Interesting post about the SOI with how east based this event is becoming.

I am conducting an interesting experiment due to the fact that this El Niño is exceptionally east based weighted, so much so that it has actually caused sea level pressure anomalies to shift slightly eastward. This in my amount of studying and research shows that this might be skewing the traditional Troup SOI index which is ran traditionally from Darwin, Australia to Tahiti in the central Pacific. so the new index still uses the same formula and is ran from Darwin in Australia, but here’s the difference it now runs to Nuku Hiva island, which is almost 700 miles northeast of Tahiti, but in a latitude since it lines up pretty well with Darwin, which gets this a better result. I found that the SOI in my research and studying was around 10 to 15 more into the negative compared to the traditional index. The picture below really tells the difference on August 28. I used the Tahiti to Darwin formula which is a traditional version which is still used by BOM. But today on 29 August, I used a different formula the Darwin to Neku Hiva and found that the -19.85 really matches well with what we’re seeing right now as far as a sea level pressure anomaly dipole. I’m hoping meteorologists that find this post useful will hopefully help to diagnose the strength of this El Niño true its true colors. So if you all can leave a reply below this post and let me know what your thoughts are. That would be absolutely helpful because I believe this will better assess the true strength of this El Niño event and future ENSO events.

 

 

 

Ben Noll is correct.

This El Nino means serious, serious BIZNASS!

Got slammed pretty good by storms with 45 mph gusts and that piled up 2.5 inches of heavy, wind-driven rain.

Hello, the very beginnings of El Nino!

We are up to 38.4 inches on the year. Normal rain for the entire year is 30 inches.

I wonder how often the PDO state keeps ninos from affecting the N HEM 500 pressure surface? Or gets close?

Wow guys. I am frackin' Jealous!

Enjoyin' the Nino yet? Havin' fun yet?

Got that ark built yet lol?

6 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Windows open in August in Baltimore for the third straight day. Incredible.

That's called you are beginning to experience some of the early effects of a record-strength El Nino.

Early cold fronts cooling things down. You will see considerably more rain than you are accustomed to in August. It will be cooler than normal and much rainier than normal from here on out.