Jebman

22 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Im loving this. Rare things equals interesting winter ahead. 

 

It will only take one well-timed cold air mass amidst all that moisture = massive snowstorm. Strong Nino winters can offer up opportunities for substantial snows.

7 hours ago, Keith Central PA said:

All winter we surely going to have this discussion. There will be storrms, but will it be cold enough?.Your gonna say perfect track but there is no cold air.

I was gonna say plenty of arctic air but near perfect track. DC scores a major winter storm with about a foot of snow. It might be a wetter snow but its snow. Even in a strong Nino winter.

19 hours ago, TSSN+ said:

This is the mid atl thread bro. lol 

I know that TSSN, but the southwest thread people are all laconic and don't care about rain. I actually do not belong in Texas. I belong in southeast DC. It's way too dry here.

Meanwhile, in other news earlier today, I got stranded at a 7-11 for 90 minutes, because of heavy rain. I had to hide the car under a gas station roof because my roof leaks lol. Yeah, I got plenty of rain today lol. We got 2 inches of rain from this storm cycle. We are up to 40.4 inches of rain on the year.

I STILL crave a 12 C El Nino and I still want so much rain that the 1626/967 Intersection in north Buda gets covered up with 45 feet of Plum Creek water and I get to jebwalk around the flood zone getting live water level readings !

"This is Jebman, reporting to you all LIVE, where we just got 27 inches of El Nino enhanced rain and we now have a catastrophic 230 year flood here in Buda, TX in which I have measured 45 feet of rushing water across the Rt 1626/Rt967 Intersection! The gas station has been completely washed away, even the foundations! We lost the entire shopping center too! I nearly got swept away because when I was getting my water level observations, there was a surge and I couldn't limp away fast enough. Thankfully one of my friends here managed to snag me inches from a sure death! This is a fun flood, but everyone needs to stay away from this intersection! Earth sides are still caving in. Huge construction equipment nearby has been swept down as well! Some of these are huge earthmovers. The new renovated Buda Sports Complex has been devastated. I am not even sure I can get back up the hill to where I live because the entire area is collapsing because of all the runoff lol. I'll get back to you all with more updates!"

Wow man precip is beginning to blossom all over south central Texas at 3am Texas time! It happened all of a sudden! There was this big yellow blob heading for Kyle then everything suddenly blossomed all over! BRING IT THE HELL ON, EL NINO!

Woooooooooooo-----Hooooooooooooo !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Not sure what's going on here in Buda, TX but this rain on the extreme back edge just keeps trying to backbuild. Light to moderate rain has started back up. Hmmmmm.....

EDIT! OK, the rain is moving firmly east. The storm is over. Someone needs to get the Austin NWS off the crack-pipe and back to meteorology school because even I know this storm is OVER! The PWATS are down to 0.3, not 2.2, and the moisture is GONE already!

This stuff is pure bullshyte! These Texas mets need to go back to school. I KNOW Buda weather. When the storm is over, the storm is OVER.

Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop tonight
across the Hill Country, I-35 Corridor, and Coastal Plains. With
the high PW airmass locally heavy rain will continue to be
possible.

I know where I live ---- One of the driest regions on the planet!

I do NOT ever get my hopes up. No more rain for me tonight. Next rain chance is October 21. Till then warm and humid and superabundant sunshine!

46 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

One question I have about this winter is how will the strong sunspots cycle impact a strong el nino?

The strong sunspots cycle will make the Strong Nino even more epic! In DC's case maybe a lot of moisture combining with an Arctic surge.

George BM, I'd like you to write us up a big rainmaker! Please. Only YOU know how to do this stuff well!

Yeah back edge and drastic drying taking place only 20 miles west of here. We typically get afternoon rains then clearing, then hazy hot and humid again tomorrow, even in October lol. Eked out about an inch. We got lucky, but many places 950 miles to the north got the jackpot with 8 inches of fresh rain. They are starting out the autumn right with torrential rain followed by a metric ton of El Nino aided snow.

Forecasts claim 100 percent chance of rain in Austin tonight but I know that is nonsense. It's already drying out to the west and the system is speeding east like a runaway freight train. Maybe we'll get more rain later this month, maybe not.

Just looked at my point and click. Don't particularly know what the Texan nws has been smoking lately, 100 percent rain tonight, 90 percent tomorrow? Naaaah.

Hey Austin NWS office, gimme some of what you've been smoking! Damn that stuff must be epic!

It's hard to believe it's been raining all day lol. Backedge is roaring though. Should clear out in 3 hours. Nebraska got most of our moisture  lol.

Glad your trip worked out, Mrs. J.

The line of storms is starting to build just west of us; maybe we will get some rain after all.

Nebraska has managed to steal much of the moisture. Some communities up there have gotten 6-8 inches of south central Texan rainfall.

Give us back our rightful rain.

We want our rain back, NOW!

No doubt about it, now.

Line is forming 20 miles west of Buda.

Everything is forming then moving right along that line or wester.

Bulverde and Bergheim just got blasted by yellow globs. I probably won't even see those hit me until very late tomorrow night and by then the whole moisture line will be racing for the Atlantic.

But no rain tonight because I am on the WRONG side of the moisture axis means I get to do delivery!

Stand by for another catastrophe in Kerrville with this system.

Hey George BM, In the October Edition wrote up a storm for us that absolutely obliterates Texas with feet of rain from a stalled out front then have that system move to the DMV and douse you guys with all that rain! RAIN is what everyone is crying out for.

I know without a doubt in my mind, that I will receive a quarter inch of rain in Buda thru October 12.

Everytime forecasters go on and on about all the intricacies of this setup, like the 2 inch PWATs, I get next to nothing. 100 miles west of Buda will be obliterated by a foot of fresh rain.

This is what always happens down here. THAT, is why we have a catastrophic drought and we will always have one, throughout this so-called strong El Nino.

Sometimes I wish I were back in Washington DC. At least they get nice and 33 degree cold with rainstorm after rainstorm after gray bone chilling rainstorm after rainstorm with Ninos.

We don't. We get sun, we get hot, we are dry as a proverbial popcorn fart and we always will be dry.

They are already trimming amounts. They are already trimming the chance of precip per day. Here's the BAD news, this system will move super fast over Buda. That's why we will be extremely fortunate to pick up a quarter of an inch of rain.

The more we get trimmed, the more we get denied. That's livin' in the Southwest and that's my neighborhood. Always short on rain, always long on hot as hell and dry. And windy too.

Two reasons Buda does not get rain....

1) I am CURSED for LIFE. All storms jump over us or evaporate.

2) Klingon Anti Rain Shield over my region. It deflects most rainstorms. My curse obliterates all the others the Shield missed.

8 hours ago, Interstate said:

Sums up winter pretty well here!!!

Need to draw a line in south central Texas then write in a notation, "Jebman on the WRONG side of an agonizing rain cutoff line. Again. Countless times this winter. What else is new."

Severe torrential rains setup for south central Texas evolves, and it looks like poor I 35 where I live will get a few scraps, probably an inch, while just 5 miles west may get 8 to 12 inches and delightful destructive flooding with thousands of exciting water rescues will be ongoing probably only a few miles west of my back yard. I hate this solution, I see it a lot down here.

Buda has a premium Ultra Klingon Rain Shield. It's all powered up and all ready to go!

What else is new. I am pretty much cursed. Everywhere I go, severe killing drought occurs. Scary thought.

I am assuredly on the WRONG SIDE of the cutoff, and make no mistake about it, this particular cutoff will be agonizing for many. We have a pretty serious drought and Buda will very likely miss out.

I wish I was in India in that place that gets north of 1000 inches per year. I'd be in Heaven! But I'm not, I am in Buda and I will miss out. Again.

If you live in Kerrville TX this would be a good time to clear out and take a vacation somewhere for 6 days. They will probably have another July 4 2025 again this week with another record flood crest raging down the valley carrying people, houses, trailers and entire communities far away downstream.

As with all things rain in south central Texas ---- By now I have learned to take these predictions with about 41,000 grains of Dead Sea salt. I've been here for 8 years. Rain related heartbreak is as common down here as soul-wrenching taxes.

With that said......

( https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=EWX&issuedby=EWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 )

By Tuesday the upper level low will continue to push eastward
towards the desert southwest thus shunting the subtropical ridge
currently over our area and pushing it off to the east. As this
happens lee side surface troughing east of the rockies will help to
bring in stronger southeasterly winds at the surface. This in turn
will help pull in more moisture up from the Gulf giving us a better
shot at rain and storm chances during the day along with our typical
seabreeze. For now have capped rain chances at 30 percent for areas
mainly along and east of the I-35 Corridor. By Tuesday night we
could start to see rain/storm chances increase as we begin to see
the beginning effects of the upper level low over the desert
southwest as it slowly deepens and progresses eastward towards the
Southern Plains. Additionally, significant amounts of moisture from
the remnants of Hurricane Polo and Odalys will be pulled into our
area in the upper levels along with lower level moisture being
brought in from the Gulf. We could see PWATS approaching and even
exceeding 2 inches. As such any storms that do form will be tropical
in nature and capable of very heavy rainfall. WPC currently has Val
Verde and parts of Edwards counties in a level 1 of 4 risk of
excessive rainfall for Tuesday with the risk shifting eastward and
increasing further as we get beyond Tuesday night. More about that
in the long term portion below.

The advertised pattern change is on track for mid to late week with
increased showers and thunderstorm chances beginning Wednesday and
continuing through late week and beyond. An upper low will be
located over the Four Corners region Wednesday, eventually moving
east across the Central and Southern Plains late week bringing a
Pacific cold front across our area. Abundant moisture will be
available ahead of this system with some guidance showing PWATs
around 200 percent above normal.

On 8/22/2026 at 11:32 AM, A-L-E-K said:

Ready for some real action 

 

 

Arizona has enough water. AZ and NM stole all the rain from Odalys and Polo.

1 hour ago, Tallis Rockwell said:

What would a 5 C El Nino look like? Somewhat curious...

That's what I want. Hell, I want a 10 C Super Nino! Imagine all the rain!

On 9/26/2026 at 7:21 AM, Mrs.J said:

Good morning all from NM. Just had to share this shot of afternoon storms we encountered coming back from Santa Fe on the Rail Runner. The lightning was beautiful to see in this landscape. Got back to Albuquerque and beat another storm to get back to our house sit in Nob Hill before the skies opened up again. 

You are getting to enjoy moisture not just from the remnants of Hurricane Polo, but also the remnants from Odalys!

If only that could please move down here to Austin TX. We're parched and we're fading fast.

41 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

Ended up being a pretty impactful storm for this part of the world. Near record tide level set at several locations that exceeded Sandy.

The great thing about excessive tides is the water gets pushed up the road drains! I love to watch that while blasting Playboi Carti and The Weeknd! You got to enjoy the sheer thrill of watching the water levels rise!

15 hours ago, Herb@MAWS said:

Hello central Vermont!

I am really frackin' JEALOUS! They get to have cool weather. They get the leaf colors, and they get to have all the fall rains!

You know what REALLY gets my goat? Four Corners gets to have life-threatening rains from Polo AND Odalys!

Of course I don't get to have shyte.

I get to have sunshine and more fookin' HOT WEATHER and I am sick of this nonsense!

I am SICK OF IT!

I'm SICK OF IT!

I am SICK TO DEATH of no rain and hot!

I want chilly and waterworld rains!

That rain is still Inbound from the northeast, DMV! It's not dyin out, it's getting bigger!

Don't look now, DMV but here comes yet another big rain blob from the Northeast! You guys are gonnabe piling up some fresh rain tallies!