Jebman

Sierran storm still on track. Snow will begin early Mon morning about 2am Pac Standard Time. It will ramp up and strong winds will create whiteouts. The day by day snow forecasts are wild. Just feet upon feet right thru Thursday. There are warnings for snow all the way south to the Bernardinos and then clear up to west central Oregon. This storm is gonnabe HUGE and super frigid, extremely low snow levels. Some places high up will exceed 8 feet of new snow by Thursday. Don't be a tourist caught out in this. There will be no rescue for days and very low temps, extreme deep snow and blowing drifting snow from torrential snow and blowing masses of snow from off the ground by winds easily exceeding 50-60mph.

Shasta already getting snow from this: https://www.skipark.com/winter/mountain-cams About 6 inches, they are progged to get 6-8 feet.

The trend is toward higher amounts of pure water in the Sierra Sun night thru Thursday. More communities are expected to receive the snow equivalent of ten inches of pure water with about 12 to 1 snow to water ratios, but those ratios could be 14 to 1. Though its true that high winds will knock the accums down some, that's still a fairly Brobdingnagian amount of snow. The specter of eight feet of snow from this is looming for many more Sierran communities.

It's going to be a fun storm to watch on webcam, especially during the day. Not so much if you happen to be a tourista caught out in this in a car in high winds and milkshake-like froth visibilities, in single digit cold with wind chills down to negative 40 degrees at times and crazy snow rates.

2 hours ago, Jrlg1181 said:

This past 15 day run following the mega sleet storm down here was pretty dang epic (deep winter wise)  .... It could've been better with the Carolina storm just to our south... But without the sleet bomb it would have been a disappointing winter with the potential that we had...

That is just what I wanted for the sub: Deep sleet/snowpack into a deep glacier then the Bombcyclone dumping about 16 inches of fresh snow on top of the greenland-like glacier.

It would have taken weeks and weeks and weeks and weeks to melt. It would have been EPIC!

Things are improving for the Sierras for the Sunday night thru Thursday storm cycle.

Models now printing out at least 8 to 9 inches of pure water for much of the Sierran Cordillera. There are some areas of near 10 inches of the water.

Snow to water ratios will start out at 8 to 11 to 1, then improve to 13 to 16 to 1 when the colder air gets in. You do the math.

This is a very serious storm brewing, even for the Sierra. It's conceivable that quite a few Sierran communities will end up with seven or eight FEET of fresh snow by Thursday. This enormous snowpack will be blown around by very strong winds. This could be a particularly dangerous situation for travelers beginning Monday morning when snow rates will explode. People trying to walk to shelter in these conditions will be confronted by prohibitively deep snow and whiteout conditions caused by tremendous snow rates plus high winds and epic masses of blowing snow.

This is no time to be trying to enjoy a holiday in the Sierran ski resorts.

Mt Bachelor in Oregon is already beginning to see snow  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jF9f7hsdlJg

Shasta County in northern California will see snow accumulations from 4 to 8 FEET. Mammoth will only get glanced by this, they will see totally manageable accumulations from 2 to maybe 4 feet. I wish Shasta had cameras. It would be amusing to watch 8 feet of snow pile up.

Shasta turns out to have a live cam https://www.skipark.com/winter/mountain-cams

Question is does it have lights at night you can see the dendrites fall by? Because if so I just might end up liking Shasta better then Mammoth. Couple feet of snow on a western resort is so pedestrian.

The storm that will devastate the Sierra with high winds and brobdingnagian amounts of snow Sunday night thru Thursday next week, ORIGINATES FROM ALASKA. It will be a frigid storm laden to the gills with enormous amounts of Pacific moisture. It will smash into all the California mountains and be forced violently upward condensing into ridiculous quantities of torrential snow that will simply pile up, feet and feet maybe meters. High winds will pile up drifts and cornices at ridges that will result in severe avalanche dangers.

In short, this is not the weekend to go skiing along the Sierras. Travel will be impossible. This storm is so cold that it will snow on the valley floors. Every mountain in California including the coastal ranges will be utterly demolished with snow. New records will be set.

Models are depicting up to 7 inches of pure water. Snow to water ratios will increase to 14 to 1. This is going to be BAD.

THIS STORM WILL TAKE NO PRISONERS.

This storm is only the first in a classic Pacific Set.

7 hours ago, mitchnick said:

I don't know their names, but I'd bet my retirement it was one of these guys.

It was probably ALL of them, lol.

9 hours ago, TSSN+ said:

 

You guys think my post is over the top. Thats fine. But what I mentioned, isn't even one billionth of what is ACTUALLY gonna transpire. By the time this is over with, the entire Sierran landscape will in effect, be The New Greenland. Three times what the models are saying just with this first storm starting Monday morning over the Sierra, may turn out to be extremely conservative. They will have to shut Mammoth Resort down for 7 days just to do avalanche mitigation work, and those conditions will be possibly the very WORST ever since they started building western ski resorts! The western ski resorts' snowstorms got delayed but not denied. Because of the incredible hyper intensity of these incoming storms, the severe season will begin rather early. The warm side of these storms will mean serious, serious bisnass! Get ready to track!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/meteorologist-says-get-ready-because-a-winter-storm-train-is-coming/ar-AA1WdzmJ

32 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Have you tried Xanax?

Sure. It's really good medicine.

Just now, anotherman said:

Jebman has been brainwashed by Chuck?

Yep. MK Ultra's more like it. Totally fragmented personality, now.  I'm gonnabe really useful later...

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

End of the 0z Euro is warming up really good in the Midwest. Run it forward a few days and we might be talking about 70s. 

117hr Euro is 57F in DCA

186hr Euro is 67F in DCA

288hr Euro is 64F in DCA

354hr Euro is 63F in DCA

4 separate fronts.. -PNA pattern

Model run is probably too extreme, but it does highlight a warmer pattern coming up. 

This is for Feb 28? In south central TX I can already attest to delightfully mild weather on Feb 12! 84 degrees with dews already in the low 60s! We are all dancing around with joy down here! I want to SCREAM THIS FROM THE HOUSETOPS, UNTIL I AM HOARSE!  SPRING IS COMING ON SUPER EARLY! We are boisterously CHEERING LA NINA on with ENTHUSIASM!

Models are printing out more and more Pacific moisture for the Sierran Cordillera Sun night on into mid/late next week. It's now up to 4-5 inches of pure water. When that moisture conveyor hits the Cordillera and is forced 11,000 Plus feet straight up - LOOK OUT. Its February. Thermals gonnabe NO PROBLEMO.

Massive travel weekend ahead. Millions of people trying to get back home later on say Tuesday next week will be frantic and forced to shelter in place. We may well be revisiting a little bit of the Infamous 2022-2023 Season there in that part of the world.

I hope and PRAY with all of my desperate little MORBID snow weenie heart, ESPECIALLY SINCE I AM NOT GONNABE THERE, RISKING MY LOWER BACK FROM A FALL, that the models are DEAD WRONG and that Mammoth gets twice as much snow as is currently being depicted. Maybe even triple the currently depicted amount!

George BM only thinks he is into extreme winter weather. I am gonna ENJOY this catastrophe! I will be eagerly happily watching from 84/63 Buda, drinking fresh cold well water like a hot horse in the Valley of Kings in Egypt in August, perfectly safe from falling on the superabundant ice in the Cordillera and also perfectly safe from easily freezing to death like the Donner Party in what could well turn out to be one of the worst snow episodes in recent history in the Sierras!

I DEMAND MY SNOW FIX! And, I WILL get it - in SPADES!

This has been a classic Jebman Presentation, likely for the Ages.

Please, Carry on.

MAMMOTH ALERT

Early next week Mammoth Mtn Resort could get demolished with as much as five new FEET of snow!

This is on top of two to three feet of freshies they just got in the past few days!

14 hours ago, Ephesians2 said:

Well, it would probably double most people's snow climo, right... ? 

This has got to be the worst plan ever, destined to be the brobdingnagian FAIL of all-time! If you want more snow that bad, move to The Tug. Or Mammoth Ski Resort. Or Alaska.

And Back THE FUCK Away, from Charles Town Races and Slots. I don't give a shyte HOW BAD you crave snow.

Hands OFF my favorite casino destination resort!!

Man, this thread. My head is hurting.

(Nothing against you Ephesians2, only against the dumbass who dreamed up this stupid arctic waterway whatever.)

Lockdowns in El Paso from ground level to 17999 feet and also over parts of New Orleans, was cover for cartel pipeline takedowns. Cartel ground operations and UAVs were taken down HARD.

1 minute ago, WesternFringe said:

Couldn’t be worse than this mausoleum lol 

Are we not entertained?

Let's reel this one in. Hey, storms this time of year create their own cold air.

32 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ah well..if having a glacial snow with almost 3 weeks of arctic air that barely got out of the teens--is the high point of a la niña winter, that is not bad at all. This has actually been a lot of fun! And It seems our misses weren't logbook misses but the thing I protest the most about ninas: the pesky NS, lol But it was plenty of cold, that's for sure! 

For next winter...I do hope we can take advantage of this niño and get it in a workable position. If we want a big dog soon, we can't afford to waste the second Niño of this decade...we only average 2-3 per decade to begin with! And yes I'm unabashedly HECS hunting too--niños are always our best shot at those!

I'll tell ya what really got my goat. That monster 16 inch bomb cyclone that missed the DMV!

That was this sub's storm, not North Carolina's!

What I never even realized all these years, was that all I ever wanted, was for the entire DMV superregion, to get covered in solid ZR and or extreme sleet, to depths up to 9 inches, freeze in place, then get genocided severely by about 40 inches of wind driven pow at 8 degrees.

That would have made the entire world right, in my estimation. I would have been so elated!

21 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

This is how we know things are winding down here when we talk about the one off amazing situations.  The April snows…1993…the great St Paddy’s day blizzard of 1755…the white Easter of 1215 just after the Magna Carta signing Meanwhile people in Maine are like ok folks first quarter is over let’s do this.  

THIS lol.

Man everyone is TRULY bored...

4 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

As a meteorologist who does this shit professionally, we are all weirdos. No other set of people in their right mind will divulge into breakdowns of a computer simulation for an entity that is far more complex in the grand scheme than any of us can comprehend at lead times greater than 24 hrs, gnashing and gnawing of teeth when the algorithm's in place don't spit out a shade of blue. Weather enthusiasts are some of the more complex individuals in that we take immense amounts of gratification in cheering and lamenting on a physical construct we have absolutely no control over. If you have ever looked at a model run beyond 72 hrs to see what COULD happen in the world of weather and ran to comment on a message board....congratulations, you are a weirdo. I for one accept my weirdness and show it as a badge because weather is something all individuals have to contend with and it's fascinating to know how something so complex can yield such incredible results. 

Fin

I could not have ever said this better. I waste so much time looking at models for snow in the DMV, and look where I live! Yeah, I am a weirdo's WEIRDO LMAO!

3 hours ago, Mrs.J said:

Nothing wrong with weirdos. Always told our kids they got the short straw with their parents. One a Game Animator and the other an Artist who fixates on weather, transportation, and animals. Always told them if everyone was the same we would live in a very boring place. Must have done something right. One going the film track and the other enjoys studying dead peoples bones. 

I'll admit I am a kind of weirdo about weather (and other things lmao) Look how excited I am about Mammoth Resort getting 17 inches of snow last night, lol. When I lived in Dale City I would go out at 3am and roll in the snow! I enthusiastically piled it so high from shoveling it, dad would cry with embarrassment. Sure I'm fooking weird. I needed help. I'd stay up all night watching the dendrites fall. It was everyone else that was normal and well-adjusted. The meteorologists are the finest examples of human beings imaginable. WxUSAF cracks me up with some of his posts lol.

1 hour ago, yoda said:

Wth is going on in El Paso?  If this is political, feel free to delete... but uh wtf

They are giving no explanations.

Without explanation, FAA closes El Paso and New Mexico airspace for 10 days, cites national defense

https://elpasomatters.org/2026/02/11/unexplained-faa-order-shuts-down-el-paso-southern-new-mexico-airspace-for-10-days/

The Federal Aviation Administration issued unexplained notices late Tuesday closing airspace over El Paso and a large patch of southern New Mexico west of Santa Teresa for 10 days. El Paso International Airport is closed to all flights, the city said. 

The orders close off all air travel in the affected area, which could cause massive disruption in the nation’s 23rd largest city.

“THE FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION (FAA) CLASSIFIES THE AIRSPACE DEFINED IN THIS NOTAM AS ‘NTL DEFENSE AIRSPACE’. PILOTS WHO DO NOT ADHERE TO THE FOLLOWING PROC MAY BE INTERCEPTED, DETAINED AND INTERVIEWED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT/SECURITY PERSONNEL,” the notices said.

“THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT MAY USE DEADLY FORCE AGAINST THE AIRBORNE ACFT, IF IT IS DETERMINED THAT THE ACFT POSES AN IMMINENT SECURITY THREAT,” the notice continued. 

The notices, known as Notice to Air Missions, or NOTAM, took effect at 11:30 p.m. Mountain Time Tuesday, and expire at 11:30 p.m. Feb. 20.

********************************************************************************************

Mods, feel free to delete this transmission. This is the banter thread, but I do know that I probably should not be delving into anything of this nature. Not only because political is proscribed, but this is classified as well.

Plow Guy needs to get plowing STAT! The snow is rapidly getting deeper as heavy snow continues apace and more brobdingnagian elements of deep Pacific moisture continue blowing right up against the Sierran Cordillera! It's a massive conveyor belt coming up from the Pacific Ocean right up thru the Channel Islands and on into the Sierras then annihilating Mammoth Resort! That's a trajectory for much more snow than expected!

https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam

EDIT: I just saw the plow. Boy if they don't get that snow plowed, it will just keep right on piling up. Snowstorms mean serious bisnass in the Sierra.

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

We've gone from extrapolation to excrapolation

Damn this is sig worthy lmao

Some of the most outstanding posts are made up in here when people are getting disgruntled.

This is also a brand-new snow futility marker. That does it. Snow futility is gonnabe on one of my new ScienceWeather boards and also on one of the Wikis.

Mammoth has already received 10-13 inches of fresh pow in the past 24 hours. They will pile on another foot of freshies overnight.

https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam