Jebman

Hello again DMV! Yet another day of rain for ya!

Welcome to the Record El Nino of 2026-27!

Indiana, PA just surpassed us in yearly rain tallies. We are at 38.40. They are now 38.76. By year's end many places in the East and south will be several feet over us, while south central Texas will be getting wall to wall sunshine and highs in the 80s, even in December. We'll see a few sprinkles maybe some drizzle.

We have been leading most places most of the year so far. Those days are OVER.

It's not hard to understand.

We are too far west for this Record El Nino. So we will be bone dry and warm.

The Nino is so east-based it is setting records. The Plume is also way too far east for us.

Places like Virginia, and the DMV areas appear to be right in the crosshairs. These communities have been getting smashed by repeated instances of heavy rain since at least early August. Look out once that soil gets saturated. Rain will keep right on.

What else is new.

1 hour ago, mdhokie said:

Time for the daily monsoon rains in the Western Maryland mountains. Feels more like Florida.

We don't seem to get normal rain anymore. Its blow out the gullies and wash away all that mulch and top soil from your new landscaping type rains. Even put in rip rap and culverts but those get overwhelmed. 

Just wait til the soil gets hypersaturated! Then you'll get to see something!

Congrats on the rains, DMV!

Welcome to a Record Nino Autumn!

You are all in perfect position for this! The Plume is coming straight at you! It's a massively East-Based Nino and you are right in the middle of it!

Enjoy all those rains! There's a hell of a lot more where those came from! Look out for a Roided-up STJ!

5 hours ago, dailylurker said:

I'm so excited to be staying on the snowiest highland east of the rocky mountains 

DL is ALWAYS chasin' the Snow!

On 8/31/2026 at 8:50 PM, George BM said:

Monday, September 7, 2026 8:25AM EDT

The past week has been one of the most active weeks of stormy weather in the region for a very long time with multiple MCSs and derechos causing repeated instances of widespread tree damage and even some structural damage with the northwest flow around the ridge of high pressure that has been parked to our west-southwest. During the September 1^st through September 6^th period much of the region has received 8 to 14 inches of rain with most areas seeing peak wind gusts from severe thunderstorms during this period in the 70 to 85 mph range. Now we watch as a deepening trough drops into the region with causing the flow locally to back to southerly. With a surface low developing nearby over the region in response to this trough southeasterly surface flow will bring in mid 70sF dewpoints into the region. With Pwats also rising above 2.25 inches and CAPE in excess of 1,000 J/kg along with tall skinnier CAPE profiles. Storms that develop will be very efficient rain producers. With the strongest forcing for accent located over the region numerous storms will be able to develop and train over the same areas leading to a significant flash flooding threat given all of the recent rain.

Numerous bands of showers and thunderstorms will train over the region from late morning through this evening before we see a more uniform area of heavy rain over the region through the night tonight as the surface low strengthens and moves to the east over the northern Chesapeake. There will be a risk for a few tornadoes through the afternoon with embedded supercells given decent low-level shear near the surface low (effective SRH of up to 300 m2/s2) and decent enough 0-3km CAPE (>100 J/kg).

When all is set and done by tomorrow morning most areas would have received an additional 3 to 6 inches of rain with localized areas that get under training bands in excess of 10 inches leading to major flooding. Always remember to turn around don’t drown. It’s not worth it!

...

I crave George BM- Grade rain here in Buda! Too damn bad Austin is way too far west for the Record Nino.

Maybe next time, in the early 2030s.

Congrats on the Rain, DMV Region!

Havin' fun yet?

It's September now and the Nino's effects should be growing day by day upon the 500 Millibar pressure surface over the CONUS.

Beaumont TX will get about 12 inches of fresh rain.

Austin? Not so much. It's all about downsloping and hot as hell for us lol.

We'll take what we can get, but you all know the old saying.

Beggars can't be choosers.

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

Canadian update shows PDO trending positive through Feb-Mar before reversing again.

It shifted the center of the El Nino east. Still has a central event, which is why it is cold for the East. But it is shifting the warm plume/enhanced equator moisture east with each run now.

This is primarily the reason I now expect normal precipitation for Austin thru September in 2027. For this autumn and winter, maybe a couple of inches, and some drizzle.

All of my hopes for at least replenishing rains in Austin are utterly DASHED. Texas WILL run out of water. We will run out of the water because of a catastrophically dry Record El Nino, then we get a catastrophically strong Nina. That strong Nina, in 2027 or in 2028, is why Texas will break so many high temperature records and get so damned DRY that the groundwaters WILL run out and the Colorado River will get lower than anyone in living memory can ever recall. At the same time, the tech buildup in Austin will cause many many many people to move here accelerating the  water uptake with nothing to replenish the water reserves. By 2029 water will be so expensive many will move east into the mid South where there is much more rain.

There is a reason all the trees down here are a third of the height of trees in N Virginia.

It's dry.

We are so forsaken by life-giving rains, that even during the 40 day rain event of deep antiquity, we probably got 40 days of light drizzle. We are used to this. It is NO surprise. Of course we got missed by the strongest El Nino in history! I have always wanted to be caught right in the middle of a record 489 billion year flood for the Ages. Of course, I am shyte out of luck and always will be.

This is a very east-based Nino, moisture plume will orient very far east,(well-away from south central Texas of course) record Nino or not. If you like sunshine, no floods ever, and east based Ninos, come live in Austin. We will have plenty of sun all winter and the average high temperature in January in Austin is 60 degrees! We have the best weather in the entire world, especially if you don't mind perpetual drought and rapidly diminishing water reserves!

Damn I have got to get out of this place! I wanna spend a few years in Cherrapunji, India. Trust me, that place gets plenty of rain!

Nepal stole our flood event. Damn!

14 hours ago, bluewave said:

Interesting post about the SOI with how east based this event is becoming.

I am conducting an interesting experiment due to the fact that this El Niño is exceptionally east based weighted, so much so that it has actually caused sea level pressure anomalies to shift slightly eastward. This in my amount of studying and research shows that this might be skewing the traditional Troup SOI index which is ran traditionally from Darwin, Australia to Tahiti in the central Pacific. so the new index still uses the same formula and is ran from Darwin in Australia, but here’s the difference it now runs to Nuku Hiva island, which is almost 700 miles northeast of Tahiti, but in a latitude since it lines up pretty well with Darwin, which gets this a better result. I found that the SOI in my research and studying was around 10 to 15 more into the negative compared to the traditional index. The picture below really tells the difference on August 28. I used the Tahiti to Darwin formula which is a traditional version which is still used by BOM. But today on 29 August, I used a different formula the Darwin to Neku Hiva and found that the -19.85 really matches well with what we’re seeing right now as far as a sea level pressure anomaly dipole. I’m hoping meteorologists that find this post useful will hopefully help to diagnose the strength of this El Niño true its true colors. So if you all can leave a reply below this post and let me know what your thoughts are. That would be absolutely helpful because I believe this will better assess the true strength of this El Niño event and future ENSO events.

 

 

 

Ben Noll is correct.

This El Nino means serious, serious BIZNASS!

Got slammed pretty good by storms with 45 mph gusts and that piled up 2.5 inches of heavy, wind-driven rain.

Hello, the very beginnings of El Nino!

We are up to 38.4 inches on the year. Normal rain for the entire year is 30 inches.

I wonder how often the PDO state keeps ninos from affecting the N HEM 500 pressure surface? Or gets close?

Wow guys. I am frackin' Jealous!

Enjoyin' the Nino yet? Havin' fun yet?

Got that ark built yet lol?

6 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Windows open in August in Baltimore for the third straight day. Incredible.

That's called you are beginning to experience some of the early effects of a record-strength El Nino.

Early cold fronts cooling things down. You will see considerably more rain than you are accustomed to in August. It will be cooler than normal and much rainier than normal from here on out.

More and more and more rain, lol. Congrats! It's gonnabe a broken record very soon.

5 hours ago, BlizzardNole said:

We are definitely getting way more precip down here in southern MD but do we mix?

Might change over.

Don't look now DMV but more rain coming up on you this time from the SSE.

I think the Mid Atlantic is already getting El Nino'ed some.

2 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I just drove home from filling in at work and felt the same. I had the windows down and sunroof open while playing my 70’s playlist. Manfred Mann’s “Blinded by the Light” is definitely a windows down tune.

We have a winnah!

Although I am also a Gen Z and Millenial playlist person, heavy on Playboi Carti and Ken Carson.

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Crushed up here right now. Noah said he'd be back to get me, but he didn't have change for a 20. 

This, is why you need to build your own Ark.

This record Nino ain't playin' around.

The DMV is right in its crosshairs and its loaded up for bear.

Congrats folks! Enjoy the rain!

Look at this: NWS in my neck of the woods mentions Nino - BUT I am not getting my hopes up.

I am an excitable guy by nature, but I am also a realist.

This is a record Nino that is extremely east-based. This means we will not get much rain in Austin from this Nino thru later 2027.

But watch out Southeastern US and Mid Atlantic. This record Nino has got your name on it and it's got one hell of a roided up STJ.

This Nino means bisnass. Get your arks ready in the DMV and the Southeast and Mid South. or move RIGHT NOW to the Mountains. This STJ means serious serious business and it will not spare and it will show no mercy and pull no punches. Some communities will get drowned by catastrophic flooding and it will last for a long time. Some neighborhoods in the Mid South, Southeast and Mid Atlantic will receive so many rounds of rain, that they WILL BE WRITTEN OFF. It's really too damned Bad I live too damn far west for this. I wanted to walk around and admire rising water levels while blasting Gen Z tracks, especially Playboi Carti, Kodak Black and Ken Carson. These songs and raps remind me of disasters in the 2020s.

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 123 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

The 500mb ridge steadily migrates eastward and by Friday/Saturday,
it will be centered over the Texas Panhandle. At the 700mb level,
the thermal ridge will be centered directly over Texas, so strong
subsidence and sunny skies should be the normal through the weekend.
Heat advisories will continue this weekend and actual air
temperatures may approach warning levels (105+) for the Austin metro
this weekend. Trends will be monitored for a possible upgrade to
Extreme Heat Warning, but for now, expect highs in the 99-104 range
for most locations through Sunday. Unfortunately, despite a brief
lull and advisory level temperatures Monday-Tuesday, ridging will be
in even greater control by mid to late next week, and highs in the
100-106 range look like a good bet. At this distance, little relief
is in sight through the end of August, but a pattern change may be
in the works as El Nino continues to strengthen over the Equatorial
Pacific, which may result in increased rain chances in early to mid-
September.

10 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Hope youre right! We are a more nickel and dime snow climate so youd get multiple jebwalks here even in the mildest winters. Make or break is how many big storms can we get, and how big are they.

Might be a little optimistic to think crawling out second story windows in DC, but if the juiced jet meets cold air, should see a good storm down there.

The DC Region has it coming, and has had it coming for a very long time. Juiced up, roided out STJ, meet an abnormally frigid airmass over the DC Region Sub. That's how they could end up with a super deep snow blizzard to rival many of the biggest snowstorms since records began. Might be in February. Models have been hinting at it being colder then normal then. Frigid air plus record nino stj could go full-on George BM blizzard.

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Good luck to you Jeb! Hopefully you get your rain and maybe a sneaky snow.

I live in the Detroit area, not DC. Im always prepared for winter. I usually get a new shovel every 2 years but keep the snowblower haha. 

DC should definitely have noreaster potential this year though.

Thanks, michsnowfreak! We will probably get some rain from this. One snow could sneak in.

Look out in Detroit. Some of the moisture will get up there and you are definitely cold enough for snow! You guys could get TROWELed real hard with snow a few times! Yeah, I think DC will get slammed by nor'easters quite a bit this winter, some of which could be a ton of very deep wind-driven snow! They might end up crawling out of second-story windows in NW DC!

Congrats guys.

This is but a point to what remains.

In other words, welcome to a record Nino. 

You'll get storm cycle after storm cycle after storm cycle.

By the time this puppy (the record Nino) really gets going with the North American 500 millibar pressure surface, your grounds will already be hypersaturated and you get to see floods galore!

Texas is way too far west for this one. This record Nino is so far east-based that Austin will actually miss out on 70 percent of the hydrometeor output thru at least September 2027. But there should be other Ninos in the next 10-20 years (If I manage to live that long ha ha ha).

Mid Atlantic getting repeated rainstorm cycles in August?

Everything with the Record Nino is right on track.

This, is gonnabe good!