Jebman

5 hours ago, tunafish said:

Wonder how the color gradients are for old eyes?

PAINFUL lmao

1 hour ago, George001 said:

That goddamn primary robbed me of a blizzard. It deepening so much and plowing into Wisconsin was a killer for our snow chances closer to the coast.

I know how you feel. We get robbed of life giving rain often because of other goddarned weather systems nearby.

Also, some G-D weather system on Monday (the 8th) is gonna rob us of sunshine lol.

Yeah, I feel ya.

Jan 15 2025 was a Wednesday. That day the southern slider continued its slow march NE'ward. NNE winds averaged about 12-20 mph with occasional gusts around 34mph. The snow fell as flurries, although the skies became very very dark. Forecasters predicted a slow movement of the slider, which would feature very light but steady snows. The ratios were good because of the frigid air as well as profound surface frigidization. What that meant, was that all the snow would stick, from flake 1, and that roads, sidewalks, driveways, would INSTANTLY cave!

The official forecast was for light snow to continue into the evening. N to NE winds were expected to blow 12-20 mph with some gusts to 34. Dews would gradually come up, but air temps would remain in the mid to upper single digits with wind chills generally minus 15 to minus 20. Aviation was already becoming challenging because of low scudding cloud decks and snow. That damn wind was blowing the snow all over the runways in spite of attempts to clear it.

The storm was expected to generally move slowly NE and off the North Carolina coast with time, ending the snow from SW to NE on Thursday. Accumulations were expected to range from 2 to 4 inches in much of Virginia, Maryland with lesser amounts in West Virginia. The Appalachians would see more snow due to upsloping on the east side of the hills.

Posters on AmWx were clamoring for Winter Storm Warnings, especially within the Mid Atlantic sub. Everyone else northeast along the coast was upset as fook about the storm and whiffing cirrus while the MA got in on a climo magnitude snow. PSU had three inches in his back yard already, even as most locations had only barely a quarter inch. Forecasters weren't clear on why. Many were very happy to see snow, but chafed at the light rates! Where on earth were the heavier snow bands?

The NAM was a crazy outlier with over three feet of snow. Many were hugging it. The rest of the models showed a 3-6 inch consensus. This was why there was so much clamor for Winter Storm Warnings. So many snow weenies cried to get NAM'med lmao!

Jeb was out on another jebwalk. He loved to jebwalk the so-called Outer Rim, the outer part of the 1.75 mile Potomac Mills parking lot. The flurries were blowing around all over the lot! It was really fascinating watching the flurries get blown all along the roads by the 20 mph NNE winds! At times, the snow became light, not just flurries. Where was the heavier snow? It was fun to watch the wind blow the flurries sideways! The snow was dry and blew around so easily! It was drifted by curbs and various obstructions. Jeb eagerly walked on all the drifts! A brief moderate snow band blew like crazy in the wind! Everything was instantly white! Jeb looked at the radar on his tablet, but all it showed was light green returns. No yellow or red, just a big huge light green blob! There was a thin line of darker green that was dumping some moderate snow for a brief time then it went back to flurries/light snow that just blew and blew in the NNE winds! Wind gusted to about 35, Jeb yelled WOOOOOOOO----HOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!! with sheer delight because of the brief whiteout-like conditions! This was starting to get very enjoyable! Jeb ducked into the mall because it was starting to get slightly cold. That wind was getting in his jacket and thru his gloves!

I think it is high time for a snow yarn. This one will be in segments because I am extremely busy where I live now. We are in the Spring cycle in Texas and have 234 decillion, 489 quadrillion tasks to do here. This is not like my life used to be back in N VA 6 years ago.

I don't know jack shit about meteorology. I do know I am morbid about terminal snows and severe storms that have no mercy at all, with absolutely no regard at all for consequences to populations. I am evil and uncaring enough to happily write this and sleep like a baby at night with not a care in this world.

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January 15, 2025 was a very cold day in the DMV. Everyone knew it was going to snow. The forecasters were calling for 2 to 4 inches. A storm had formed in the GoM, was a southern slider and would bring the snow then move out to sea. Highs even in DC were only in the 0 to 8 degree range. Cross polar flow was established. A refreshing 23 mph northerly breeze was blowing. Clouds were moving in from the southwest and thickening. Dewpoints were around ~ 10 below zero.

Jeb was happily jebwalking along in Dale City, with a grin on his face. This was because he knew a lot of snow was coming to the DC Region. In fact it would be way too much of a good thing. Jebs grin broadened at that thought. He worshiped snow, and lots of it!

He kicked back on a park bench and happily drew a polar front cross section on a notebook, just like he used to do in high school in lieu of actually doing assigned work. Then he savored the AmWx forums on his tablet. SNE was grumping about the ma getting the snow while they whiffed cirrus. The Mid Atlantic sub was tracking the models to death. The NAM was indicating 3 feet of snow but was an outlier. The model consensus was 3 to 6 inches. Many posters were calling for WSW's. PSU was having to field a ton of questions  about the new base state.

Jeb daydreamed about trying to shovel out the entire Potomac Mills parking lot using a Jebman Shovel, and piling the snow super high!

Altostratus was moving in from the ESE. Was that a flurry? Naah the dews were way too low, about -13. The breeze was refreshing though.

Jeb read the NWS LWX AFD for the 79th time. Forecasters insisted the southern slider would move out to sea. This would hold accums to 2 to 4 inches. Many in the Mid Atlantic sub were hopeful the storm would overachieve and dump warning level amounts of snow. Bob Chill said the slider had upside, especially because the ratios were favorable. 

Jed happily walked the Potomac Mills lot, admiring the milquetoast small piles of snow here and there. The skies  grew darker and more foreboding and the cool north wind gusted suddenly to 37 mph out of the NE! A flurry of snow began, leaving Jeb wondering how precip could be already reaching the ground with low negative teen dewpoints! The wind blew the snow right along the lot pavement!

1 hour ago, snownut said:

I have had fun working the parking crew at Mt Bachelor.  Work tomorrow and a new snow cycle rolling in.

Less than two months in the season here.  

Anyone want a 100% job in the snow let me know and I'll get get you in…  cute video of my manager boss lady..

 

https://youtube.com/watch?v=v4mxXdFY-kk&si=aDqNgKi9eZ36SaOP

 

 

 

 

 

 

You have a job in heaven. I love that video with all my heart! I would  be digging snow for years!

2 hours ago, Winter Wizard said:

I decided to abandon ship in Texas and opt for New England. Logistically pretty easy to pull off, and it's hard to ignore the data. I actually think DFW area northeastward to southern Illinois could also be a sweet spot since they're between the two shortwaves. Best of luck everyone. 

Damn I hate Texas. This GD place is always cloudy with catastrophic rains during total eclipses. This happened here 600 years ago during the last total eclipse in Central Texas. I am officially cursed. 

I despise where I live and I hate my cloudy, torrentially rainy life too!

I am officially shyte out of luck.

Uh oh more clouds may move in Monday lol.

These model runs are tough to look at.

Definitely gonna make sure I have enough beers and some liquor around. I dont drink much but if we have clouds building in tough for Monday, I'll drink myself right into a serious stupor, probably end up right in the ER, over a dumb cloudy eclipse lmao. There's always Sydney in 2028 but that trip is gonna be pricey pricey pricey pricey.

10 hours ago, RickinBaltimore said:

I am not looking forward to the Craig Kimbrel experience all season long. 

Why are the Orioles so concerned about Kimbrel as closer? I dont know a whole lot about baseball, though. I looked him up. Seems the Orioles should have gotten someone else on as closer. Maybe Kimbrel's salary? Are the orioles saving money by signing Kimbrel on?

1 hour ago, George BM said:

If it makes you feel better there've been many significant to record-breaking snows with the general pattern leading up to this eastern severe event in the western US mountains w/ Lake Tahoe and the California mountain peaks getting 10-15 feet of snow through the past week. Crazy for late April.

I feel a lot better. California should have plenty of water this spring, if not summer. The problem is, we need to release all that water in order to save the Delta Smelt.

41 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Oooh Sydney is right in the center of totality at 2 PM!  That's gonna be a huge event.  At first I thought aw man mid-winter but July is actually their 3rd sunniest month in terms of percent of possible sunshine.  Average highs in the 60s

Count me in mate!

5 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

We want everyone to throw in the towel and cancel, then have a positive bust with sunny skies. Less traffic this way. 

Are we having eclipse reapings like we do for winters around here? 

If we are I am due to get Reaped. Reaper, you better don that garment of darkness. You got a job to do. Your sacred chamber is radiating a hellish RED right now! I jumped ship, I believed not only in multiple deep impenetrable cloud decks but also in torrential rains that would have provoked serious loss of life and property in Hays County, Texas, on eclipse day and for a couple of days after.

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

at some point the cold is just going to overwhelm the soundings and the edgy models that are IP/cat pawing may bust ... it's like venturing too close to the 'thermal event horizon' and the phase change physics pulls you down.

Tip, I apologize for messing with your post earlier. I won't do it ever again.

I really enjoy when you recognize a pattern then get into serious, energetic, enthusiastic analysis mode! That's when you start making those trillion dollar posts like the one at the beginning of this thread, and when I read it I feel like I just won 50 billion dollars on the mega millions. I really truly seriously love those posts you make where you analyze a promising pattern, setup to a decent blizzard for the SNE.

1 minute ago, Fozz said:

I told you not to give up! Texas is looking a lot better than it did before. You can’t jump ship a week out.

Thanks, Fozz.

6 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

It really does look like the best chance for clear skies. Crazy. 

Maine is clear as Texas, Texas as cloudy as Maine lol. Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right, here I am stuck in the middle with you lol. Eclipse lovers may need a new hobby

8 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

0z ops look workable? GGEM has clear skies for the eclipse verbatim! Looks like a band of showers moves through Sunday at some point but most of Monday is dry right now. 0z GFS actually has the scenario I was rooting for with the energy more consolidated in the storm that moves into the Plains on Sunday and nothing hanging behind. 
 

p.s. NBM cloud map from Pivotal is the best I’ve seen it yet!

Well maybe there is some hope. Just in case it is cloudy,  I want to make damn sure I can drink myself into a total stupor.

On 3/28/2024 at 12:35 AM, ice1972 said:

You sure about that chief?

No I am NOT sure at all.

Yeah Ice I concede.  You are right. It will be thick clouds and good chance rain. For four days lmfao. Thick clouds with rain. Day before the eclipse, day of the eclipse and for two days after the eclipse. Talk about BAD LUCK!!

On 3/28/2024 at 9:21 AM, dryslot said:

Some folks somewhere will be in for disappointment TBD.

That'd be me. Lots clouds forecast along with rain.

NE is on track sunshine wispy cirrus and nice weather.  Enjoy the eclipse.

April 7 thru 10 solid clouds with very good rain chances here in Buda. Forecast continues to solidify up with excellent rains and thick clouds. Multiple thick well-developed cloud decks at various altitudes with efficient moisture transport. Probable low level fog as well, due to rain falling into 70 degree dewpoint airmass at 2 meters.  ZERO chance of glimpsing the eclipse thru multiple strong cloud decks.

Eclipse watchers, stay far from Austin. It's gonnabe a Rainer, a multi-day soaker.

It'll be a Rainer to make Washington DC proud in January in a super Nino with a blazing fiery base state like this past ratter of a winter there.

In short, we have a strong soaking Eclipse Special on tap not just on eclipse day but also the preceding day and two days after, for damn good measure!!!!!!!!! I am depressed and inconsolable.  This was my last chance in this lifetime. It's just too bad.

Go to Mexico. Should be dry hot and sunny.

Need to change the title of this ratter of an eclipse  to April 8th Rainy, Socked In Son Of A Bytch, Abandon ALL Fookin' Hope, For The Rest Of Your Miserable Lives Eclipse.

I'll tell you what's to blame for this frackin' debacle. It's that fiery blazing hot venusian base state, and its partners in crime, the bloated Hadley Cells and fooked up MJO. Just like those sobs did in the Mid Atlantic this past ratter of a pathetically skunked up so called winter.

Who's jaded now?

Head for Jay Peak. They might get 3 feet of freshies from the upcoming storm!

22 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Latest model blend. Upstate NY and New England continue to look the best, followed by the MO Valley and Western NY. 

I’ve noticed an ever so slight increase in cloud cover forecast the last 24 hours in Buffalo. Went from 35-45% to 45-55% range. 
 

iPhone app has partly cloudy in Niagara Falls on Monday afternoon…I’d gamble with that forecast. 
 

Thanks. Buda has a 95 percent probability of cloud cover on the 8th. I am getting just as jaded, as my grandpa was years ago. No fookin eclipse for me or for untold millions who put their trust in Texas weather. Too bad the eclipse wasn't Aug 15. That month is always 103 and cloudless.

FOOK FOOK FOOK FOOK FOOK FOOK FOOK FOOK FOOK!

3 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I wouldn’t give up just yet. It’s still a week away. I have a refundable ticket so I’ll see how it goes.

I would love it if everyone all along the Path could see the eclipse, even if I can't.

April fools on that storm setup.

Don't make me write one up on a day after tomorrow snow that kills everyone in the US.

I do, after all, value snow over people. That's no lie. That ain't no April fools, either. I am definitely far crazier, than I ever was in high school over snow.

Just now, WxUSAF said:

I’ve got nonrefundable hotel and airline. I’m coming to Texas. The rain will be dark at least.

Well, you can enjoy the beer, BBQ and brisket, at least.

It's official.  80 percent chance of heavy rain on April 8th.

Everyone going to Texas it's high time to bail. It's gonna be a three day cloudy blow.

Maybe everyone is gonnabe cloudy.

I think there is still time to change airline resses without too much of a penalty. 

Or take out a home equity loan and charter a 747 and watch the eclipse.  Too bad I will miss it for sure. Fook this life, everything is going to shyte. No doubt about that, now.

On 3/30/2024 at 8:26 AM, WxUSAF said:

Ensembles trending wrong way for TX 

I am perfectly positioned for this cloudy eclipse.