Jebman

This is fine George BM but I would like you to write us up an EPIC Cat 5 Hurricane that stalled in DC for the July Banter Thread. Unprecedented Panic and Destruction!! You could write up the original NWS analysis, then I would do a write up about what people experienced from the epic hurricane. Your analysis and my morbid imagination, if we ever collabbed on a book about the Cat 6 that leveled DC, it would be the best seller of all-time! We'd both retire.

*** Important Weather CONFERENCE Update*** We need a Summer Conference in Central Texas. We'd have endless lightning talks about the Jarrell Tornado. We'd have the foremost tornado experts present and I would do a deep dissertation on the Deep Winter of Feb 2021 in Texas. We aint catering nothin'. We'd be grilling straight Texas BBQ on a HUMONGOUS Texas Grill. We'd have millions of metric tons of Texas Beer! Three unforgettable fun days of just being weather enthusiasts.

Hey! You guys have a lot of weather comin your way, including Tornadoes! Enjoy the rain!

We are heading back to legendary winters in the Mid Atlantic. Great. Solar. Minimum. Little Ice Age reprise by 2030. I am gonna move to Panama. Or maybe even The Amazonian Basin. Plenty of food in the jungle, and nice warm year round. I love summer. I'd go chase river monsters like Jeremy Wade! Or swim with piranhas! Heard its a rush! I am so damned BORED, I'd probably experiment by stickin my FOOT in a small pool full of rapacious piranhas. Hey, I got lightning fast reflexes! I'd SCHOOL Neo in The Matrix of river monsters. Damn I am so fuckin BORED!

This is okay snow, but for REAL SNOW, like six foot megastorms, head for Mammoth Mountain. The Sierras dont play around.

I am jealous................................and BORED. Was reading this. I have been going through deep, deep archives in my old message board. That tornado was sca-reey!

It's gonnabe THE 2013-2014 SEQUEL. Get ready. Buy Jebman shovels, snowblowers, salt, kitty litter and a ton of beer and foods and get those phones ready to play all the tracks that remind you of snow! Get ready for EPIC jebwalks in 5 inch per hour snows. Better stock up a huge supply of whatever you use to stay awake. Because you will be up tracking models for weeks.

If this happened again in the 2020s over NC and VA and the greater DC Metropolitan region, this place would go utterly nuts. I'd JEBWALK over there from Texas if I had to, even with my bad left knee. No frackin' way I'd ever miss that. Imagine FOUR FEET OF SNOW in one storm in eastern Prince William! Everything would be snowbound for weeks. It would be a literal representation of Mammoth Mountain Resort, in the Mid Atlantic!

Been real nice knowin everyone. Tornadoes, 75 mph gusts, 4 inch hails, and 3 inch rains with severe storm forecast to slam Austin throughout the night. I want the rain so bad. I really would not mind training thundershowers with 15 inches of rain all night. But hail and high winds are bad. This is a potentially very dangerous situation.

Might want to stay far from Austin, lol. We have been 94/72 since May 11. We've hit 100 a few times already, too.

I can imagine an A.I. Model coming up with the humdinger of all blizzards in December 2025 for DC. Training thundersnows piling up four feet of wet snow in NW DC in a 36 hr period. lol. It does not know the laws of physics so the sky's the limit for snow in DC according to the A.I.

Enjoy the rain. This trough should bring beneficial rain!

Hundreds of miles north the life giving rains are falling. Texans are pumping all the moisture north. For example in Austin it is 90 degrees with a 77 degree dewpoint. Lots of clouds and strong winds straight off the Gulf of Mexico (I will call that Gulf what the hell I want to lmao) are just cranking up the dewpoints as we send them north with a lot of heartfelt LOVE. We want the central plains to get good rain to grow the wheat and set the livestock up good! This helps everyone in the long run!

With that many Tambora-level eruptions, weather enthusiasts in the Megalopolitan Eastern US Corridor in the 2050s should enjoy massive frigid outbreaks and record blizzards in the NDJFMA timeframes many of those winters!

Knew this was gonnabe happening: URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1253 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025 TXZ171>173-183>193-202>208-217>223-228-141000- /O.NEW.KEWX.XH.W.0001.250514T1800Z-250515T0200Z/ /O.EXT.KEWX.HT.Y.0001.250513T1800Z-250514T1800Z/ Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera- Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Kinney-Uvalde-Medina- Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Maverick-Zavala-Frio-Atascosa- Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-Dimmit- Including the cities of Boerne, Bastrop, Georgetown, Uvalde, Leakey, Fredericksburg, Hondo, Pearsall, Lockhart, Del Rio, Floresville, Eagle Pass, Gonzales, Burnet, Brackettville, San Antonio, Rocksprings, Kerrville, Blanco, Crystal City, Austin, Seguin, Bandera, New Braunfels, Carrizo Springs, Llano, San Marcos, Karnes City, and Pleasanton 1253 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025 ...HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY... ...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...For the Heat Advisory, air temperatures near 104 degrees, except near 110 along the Rio Grande. For the Extreme Heat Warning, dangerously hot conditions with air temperatures of 105 to 108 degrees, with near 115 degrees along the Rio Grande. * WHERE...A portion of south central Texas. * WHEN...For the Heat Advisory, until 1 PM CDT Wednesday. For the Extreme Heat Warning, from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Heat related illnesses increase significantly during extreme heat and high humidity events. Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses. Meanwhile in other news...... Mid Atlantic is getting badly needed beneficial rains, to the tune of 2-4 inches. Some communities, especially in the mountains, could see 4-8 inches of rain. Enjoy the cooling rains, Mid Atlantic. You deserve good water table replenishment. Stay safe as always.

Mountains are gonna get NAM'MED with 12-13 inches of rain. Man, if THAT were all snow in January.........

If this were gonnabe snow, and you had very cold ground, you would be under some SERIOUS Winter Storm Warnings that would encompass most of the Mid Atlantic Region! You would be looking at at LEAST two feet of snow, perhaps three feet with lollies to four feet. You wouldn't even need MillvilleWx to write up the KLWX AFD's. George BM and I would do this puppy full justice. It would be one heck of a BONANZA for snow enthusiasts, most snow weenies would be flying all over. Many would be up for days and days and days tracking every evolution of the models. I'd be GLUED to this sub.

Man I love it so much when pro forecasters talk dirty like this: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LWX&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The upper low that will impact the region over the next few days will start to shear out into an open wave as it lifts northeastward from the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday toward the Northeastern states by Thursday. As this occurs, we should start to see a few more breaks in the cloud cover, and as a result, should heat a little better during the day. High temperatures are expected to reach into the 70s on Wednesday, and then upper 70s to lower 80s on Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms appear possible either afternoon, with the highest coverage expected Wednesday afternoon beneath the upper low. Model soundings show mostly saturated profiles, along with some limited instability (around 500-1500 J/kg) and relatively weak flow through the depth of the troposphere. As a result, slow moving, heavy rain producing thunderstorms appear possible. While there likely won`t be any synoptic scale boundaries to focus regeneration of storms in any one given location, the slow storm motions and heavy rainfall rates may be enough to cause localized instances of flooding on the heels of heavy rains on Monday and Tuesday. Areal coverage of storms should be a bit lower, and storm motions should be a bit faster on Thursday. When coupled with slightly drier vertical profiles, this should lead to a lesser threat for flooding on Thursday. As we move toward the end of the week, a deep upper low and attendant strong surface low will slowly track eastward into the Upper Great Lakes. As this occurs, rich low-level moisture will be drawn north and east from the Gulf into the Ohio Valley and Mid- Atlantic. Simultaneously, a strong belt of mid-level flow (35-50 knots in the 700-500 hPa layer) will spread overtop that rich low- level moisture, advecting a remnant elevated mixed layer plume eastward as it does so. Rich low-level moisture, steeper than climatology mid-level lapse rates, and strong mid-level flow will result in an environment on Friday, and potentially even Saturday as well, characterized by both strong instability and strong deep layer shear. The EPS and GEPS ensemble means have 2000-3000 J/kg CAPE along with 35-50 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear. The GEFS show lesser instability and similar shear values, but have a well-know low bias when it comes to instability. This type of parameter space raises concerns for severe thunderstorms. While the parameter space being advertised at the moment by models is toward the higher end of what we typically see in this part of the country, we`re still at day 6 and 7, and there is plenty of time for things to change, especially when an upper level low is involved (which models notoriously struggle with in the long range). With an elevated mixed layer involved, there are also signs of stronger capping than we typically see, so that could complicate things as well. For now, the end of the week is a period to monitor for potential severe thunderstorms, with the expectation that forecast can and will change this far out.

Look guys I know this has nothing to do with this discussion, and I really hope you all over there get a lot of beneficial rain while staying safe, especially in the orographic portion of the sub. I need to know what kind of ENSO state we had in 2011, especially if it was negative-neutral, like we are having now. Thanks. Enjoy all the cool rain!!!

When this heat wave gets done with us by May 25th, all of central TX will be a burned out husk. I have a question for the pro Mets on here? Was 2011 Summer a NEG NEUTRAL ENSO? In 2011 entire forests burned in central Texas. It was like California in fire season. Because if it was, then this summer in Texas will be an INFERNO for sure. And, been real nice knowin' y'all.

I hope you get lots of rain and stay safe, and that the Caps win BIG!

George BM, I really LOVE your professional weather forecasts. It's hard to believe you aren't working alongside Millville Wx these days. They could sure use your expertise! I enjoy your enthusiasm for severe winter and spring weather systems! NO ONE writes these AFDs up like you do! Many times I read your updates at the beginnings of the month then happily enjoy the day! Your enthusiasm reminds me of myself about 25 years ago when I still took ridiculous long jebwalks and craved 10 inch an hour snows in Dale City. Your SIG is just hilarious! 80-100kt effective bulk shear That sounds pretty bad.

I hope you guys get some rain with this.

After awhile of living down here in the desertification district of Texas, you catch on. Reportedly decillions of long metric tons of rain are on their way today, tonight and early tomorrow. I believe it. But those green flood watches. They are 170 miles NORTH of us. You live down here long enough, you learn. We are shyte out of luck - AGAIN. We'll see drizzle, and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours of light mist and light drizzle. The 9 billion year rains are bubbling up all around Buda, but rest assured 99.9999999999999999 percent of the rain will - you guessed it - waterboard Dallas and points north and east. This includes Washington DC. Some communities in Dallas have already gotten 23 plus this year and are on track for a 60 inch rain year easy. NOT US. NO WAY. Not even in 1 million years. Not even one season like that. Rain hates me and rain absolutely abhors Buda. Some horrible pos has erected a permanent Klingon Anti Rain Shield around north Hays County. We are shyte out of luck. We'll have category 987 -level Drought by September, and cracks in that ground so wide, I will fall in AGAIN and really shatter my left knee this time! The Austin Metropolitan Region is out of luck for the foreseeable future, probably well into the 2030s. We are so up shyts creek, that Texas could get a Cat 5 hurricane. We'd get the 190 mph winds, the tornadoes and the damage. We'd get probably half an inch of rain, while Dallas would get about 14 feet of rain and the Trinity River would get so high it would drown south Oklahoma. I would sell everyone out, for a chance to live in Cherrapunji, India. They get ~1050 inches a year, every year.

I fervently hope you guys get happily buried ALIVE in powder snow soon!