Dark Star

Light drizzle in Linden NJ at 11:30 AM.

5.0" at 1:30 PM.  Thought we would get an easy 7" in central Union County, NJ, but it will be difficult to squeak out another inch before accumulating snow ends before 3 PM?

4" in central Union County, NJ. at 11:30AM.  Snowing moderate to heavy at the moment...

36 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here’s one recent paper:

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abbc93/pdf

Thanks for the article and relatively short read.  I couldn't help but notice the author kept relating the warming to greenhouse gases, which seems unnecessary to keep repeating, since it is academic that greenhouse gases will increase atmospheric temperatures.  It is also somewhat self evident that extreme northern areas that did not receive a lot of snow will have increased frequency and amounts of snowfall.  Also, the recent "atmospheric river" which just slammed the west coast with extreme snowfalls is a good example of warm oceanic air causing an increase in snowfall.  However, I'm not sure if the original low that reached our area had any added moisture from the pacific atmospheric river.  The low weakened, and a new low formed along the Atlantic coast.  The author initially mentions many atmospheric circulations, but doesn't seem to tie them in to his conclusion?  So in areas like the NYC metro area, where snow is so difficult to come by, is the increase in overall temperature the primary reason for larger snowfalls?  Obviously as global temperatures increase, snow around here will become significantly infrequent.  I think this would be a great study for someone who is not as lazy or mathematically challenged as I am.

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Great point. Warmer air holds more moisture. The increased tendency for marine heatwaves being driven by climate change creates an increased probability of major snowstorms when synoptic conditions are favorable for storms. These storms can produce far more snowfall than had been the case without the warming/marine heatwaves even if all other variables are held constant. 

While this sounds probable, I am not convinced that the warmer climate is the reason for higher snowfall amounts.  Snow in the NYC metro area has always been difficult to come by.  It seems most systems have always been on the edge of the rain snow line. Cold air is always a necessary ingredient.  As temperatures have increased, I find it difficult to believe that the warmer climate is the reason for our bigger snowfalls over the last 20 years. Warmer air holds more moisture, but is the increase in ocean (or air) temperature proportionately related to the higher snow amounts?    Is there actual data/studies proving that the warmer climate is leading to increased snowfall in the NYC area, or just supposition?  Or maybe it has to do with the track of the systems (perhaps due to a warming climate)? 

17.5" Snow/Sleet Garwood - central Union County NJ.  Still snowing/flurrying...

15" in Garwood (Central Union County).  Sleet mixing in, takes over, then goes back to snow.  

12" in Garwood, Central Union County NJ by 11:30AM.  Snow almost looked like a little semi melted refrozen flakes mixed in?  Anybody see an additional foot for this area?  Seems the most intense banding has worked inland.

7.25" in central Union County NJ at 9:15 AM.  Snowfall rates have just increased...

Snow began in central Union County at 12:30 PM

I take it the rain and or snow for today and tonight have been cancelled?

So no more precipitation to the west, at least on radar.  Is the precip supposed to back build?  That would probably negate western Jersey and eastern PA from any additional accumulations?

A few short lived flurries here in Garwood, NJ (central Union County).

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I'd like to see a chart showing the minimum temps 7 days and closer in before our 10 inch snowfalls.  At least since 2002.....

 

I do remember receiving some large snow storms preceded by abnormally warm day(s).  Don't asks for any dates or years, my mind is shot.

Moderate snow just turned to a light drizzle in Central Union County NJ at 10:15 AM.

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, this recent study found more frequent SSWs in a warming world.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/30/21/jcli-d-17-0044.1.xml

Sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events influence the Arctic Oscillation and midlatitude extreme weather. Observations show SSW events to be correlated with certain phases of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), but the effect of the MJO on SSW frequency is unknown, and the teleconnection mechanism, its planetary wave propagation path, and time scale are still not completely understood. The Arctic stratosphere response to increased MJO forcing expected in a warmer climate using two models is studied: the comprehensive Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model and an idealized dry dynamical core with and without MJO-like forcing. It is shown that the frequency of SSW events increases significantly in response to stronger MJO forcing, also affecting the averaged polar cap temperature. Two teleconnection mechanisms are identified: a direct propagation of MJO-forced transient waves to the Arctic stratosphere and a nonlinear enhancement of stationary waves by the MJO-forced transient waves. The MJO-forced waves propagate poleward in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere and then upward. The cleaner results of the idealized model allow identifying the propagating signal and suggest a horizontal propagation time scale of 10–20 days, followed by additional time for upward propagation within the Arctic stratosphere, although there are significant uncertainties involved. Given that the MJO is predicted to be stronger in a warmer climate, these results suggest that SSW events may become more frequent, with possible implications on tropospheric high-latitude weather. However, the effect of an actual warming scenario on SSW frequency involves additional effects besides a strengthening of the MJO, requiring further investigation.

Thanks for spelling out the abbreviations!

8 hours ago, crossbowftw3 said:

And the flakes weren’t even flying there until about the same time flakes began closer to where we are. Absolutely nutty. 

While storms don't drop rain or snow uniformly, I am always suspicious of outliers.  All towns near Newark reported 7" or less.

6.0" final total pretty consistent around my house in central Union County NJ.  Hit my low mark of my 6"-8" prediction.  That was mainly based on the secondary "forming" too far north.

 Heard pinging a few minutes ago in central union county nj, then dry slotted.  Maybe around 3"?  My forecast was 6-8" based on sleet mixing in and the low reforming much farther north than progged.  Unless the back end packs a wallop (they usually don't) then I only wind up with 4-5".

6 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

As of 7 pm, we have 3.75" OTG which is 1.5" the last hour - that's pretty heavy snow.  Pounding here now.  Still 25F.  Very heavy band on our doorstep.  

Only 2.5" here in Garwood (central Union County, NJ)

Not too bullish, haven't seen significant pressure falls along Hatteras yet.  I would say 6-8" in central Union County NJ, unless the coastal low gets going FAST.

Anybody tracking pressure drops along the Carolina coast?  I would think this is key, because if the secondary forms too late, it will be by us before it really starts to crank...

36 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Looks like the hill country SW of Syracuse got buried in this one.

The time? What about the hair... 

5 decades of weather watching around here and I can only think of two or three times that backside snows actually amounted to anything of consequence. Christmas 02 being the most dramatic of them.

As mentioned above. What a cool storm that was right? From a cold rain to a foot of glue in just a few hours. The biggest problem was how wet the lower layers were and how hard they froze overnight. That was one of the worst shoveling episodes I've ever experienced and I had to get it done so I could leave home at 6am for work. No sleep at all that night...

The tiny sliver goes right over the Mt A massif. There's a 'big rock' named Mt Agamenticus in that corner and it has a habit of drawing whatever last little bit of storm is passing by and amplifying it. When the ski area was operational they would often record absurd snowfall amounts when the mountains in the vicinity would show a few inches. Now it's just a conglomeration of awesome mt bike trails but it still gets crazy snow.

I vaguely remember that one, at two years old...

29 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Hmmm....all these storms come to nowcast it seems; kind of makes following a forecast somewhat redundant....but we do it anyway. Gluttons for punishment.

I always say that the forecast should be determined no later than within 24 hours of the onset of precipitation.  Otherwise, it really isn't a forecast.  As Jeff Beradelli has taught me, the devil is in the details.  In other words, the pieces of the puzzle are there in the forecasting tools, it's up to the forecaster to know which ones to use and which ones to discard.

3 minutes ago, dave0176 said:

Was going to pull the snow blower out tonight because I haven’t had to start it in three years and I know the carb is probably gummed up, but at this point my 3-6” prediction might not even happen. I’m not gonna bother pulling it out. 

I pulled mine out, but didn't use it.  Story of my life...