Dark Star

30 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Hard to say nws thinks so. 

However, strong frontogenesis, marginal instability,
and gusty west winds along and just ahead of the cold front will
create a good chance for a line of moderate to heavy snow
showers, and perhaps a snow squall. Latest CAMs are in good
agreement at this time. The cold front will quickly move across
the area, passing eastern LI/SE CT 8-9 am.

A quick coating of snow is not a snow squall.  NYC folks don't really know what a whiteout or snow squall actually looks like.  

2 hours ago, wthrmn654 said:

Snow squalls too 

No actual squalls within 10 miles of NYC anyway.  Maybe Susses County if they hold?

2 hours ago, North and West said:

What’s TNH? I swear people just make acronyms up now. I hope we look into OPS+ and WAR.


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I know what OPS is, but anything newer, I have no idea.  At one time, it would all have been in my brain.  

3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Plenty of years had good Decembers followed by cold and dry or mild January's before a backloaded winter. 2002-03. Even 00-01 didn't do much until 3rd week of January after the nye storm. Most years have a break of at least a few weeks 

True dat.  The January Thaw is not a myth.

42 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Thats what happened with the upcoming pattern in the first 2 weeks. People were calling for a huge storm due to the retrogading block but thats not going to happen. Thats what happened last winter also.

I can't forsee what will happen in 2 weeks, but I am optimistic based on the relatively cold and active pattern that we are presently experiencing.  Of course, the ugly Pacific jet just doesn't quit...

13 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

A weathergami is a unique high-low combination in a city's climate record. This year's weathergamis in the New York City area are below:

Ouch, March 29, 2025 wins the game!

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

35 degrees light rain continues. Amazing when it's liquid how the radar keeps filling in to the west. 
 

Snow pack still pretty solid. If it can get through the rest of the day we should have a solid chuck of snow and ice that should withstand the December early January sun. 

Though light, snow kept falling Saturday, even though the main system was already offshore...

8 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yes but not for Debbie Downers

16 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Climate is dynamic and ever changing, 1840s is not relevant

I don't know.  I feel that all recordable history events are valid and relevant.  I am in the minority that average temperatures should factor in from whenever we first started recording.  We use maximum and minimum temperatures from inception...

56 minutes ago, ag3 said:

I don’t believe they clear the board every time they measure. That was the old way every 6 hours.

Now, I believe it’s clear the board after 24 hours or when there is a change of precip type.

 

Every 6 hours was silly.  The actual snowfall is what is on the ground (or measuring surface), rather than a theoretical depth not accounting for gravity or other physical properties.  And I believe there is an average based on a differernt number of spots, so as to account for variations due to drifting, or is this just for larger snow falls?

54 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Newark airport measures 4.2 inches and LGA also 4.2 inches and right in between the two Central Park, for once, correctly measures 4.3 inches and now someone on social is suddenly concerned Central Park over measures. Amazing.

I received 2.5" (maybe 2.8" figuring in compression), so I would naturally assume Central Park was not going to excced central Union County NJ (about 10 miles south/southwest of Newark Airport).  But the storm was farther north and east, so the CPK measurement is not suspect, in my opinion...

4 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Part of it is we all look at snow maps instead of soundings but yes the gfs and other colder models kept showing snow in areas that started as sleet and then got dry slotted 

I still contend that the lack of snow in areas such as Union county NJ was that the center for the storm was too far north.  Areas north and east of NYC got the jackpot.  Without enough lift in my area, the storm dynamics fizzled.  Had the storm been more intense, it would have easily overcome the "warm nose" and "dry slot".  To reiterate an earlier post, we are mainly disagreeing over semantics.  

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I wonder if ocean effect can ever produce a real snowstorm (6"+) in this region 

I don't really recall, although I think Long Island does occasionally receive some ocean/sound enhancement?

Measured 2.5" at 6 AM.  It snowed about another 1/3", but still just measured 2.5" at 8:30 AM.  I guess the difference was lost to compresssion.  

30 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

"Screw zones", in my defintion, are different than dry slots.  It is an area of poor dynamics.  You are not necessarily incorrect.  The cold air advection out ahead of the storm caused drier air.  However, the main lifting of the storm was always going to be north and east of the this area.  

NWS defines a dry slot:  

Dry Slot

A zone of dry (and relatively cloud-free) air which wraps east- or northeastward into the southern and eastern parts of a synoptic scale or mesoscale low pressure system. A dry slot generally is seen best on satellite photographs.

22 minutes ago, TriPol said:

If this isn't a dry slot, I don't know what is.

"Screw zones", in my defintion, are different than dry slots.  It is an area of poor dynamics.  You are not necessarily incorrect.  The cold air advection out ahead of the storm caused drier air.  However, the main lifting of the storm was always going to be north and east of the this area.  

This particular discussion is only about Manhattan, specifically Central Park (despite its notorious poor snow depth reportings).  My interpretation is the storm was a bust.  Some could argue, in a broad sense, that the storm was not a bust.  Strangely, all models came on board about 5 days ago that this would be an all snow event.  After 2 days in a row reaching the 40s (or more), the temperature miraculously cooled down just before the clipper like system was to arrive (cold air being one of the ingredients for snow).  The only thing peculiar was that the main dynamics of the storm would be north and east of Manhattan.  Historically, this is not a good recipe for an all snow event.  However, I was optimistic for a good snowfall, based on the model consensus.  EVERYBODY, or so it seemed, was saying that Central Park was going to receive a significant snowfall. I had not seen one of the models 00z run on 12/26/2025, which depicted a lighter amount.  Instead, I was noticing throughout the day on Friday, that after the overcast became solid, had begun thinning, and pretty much cleared at times, in advance of the storm.  Based on experience, 98 times out of 100, if the overcast breaks or the sun becomes visible hours before the storm, it will be a bust.  With the 2 out of the last 100 times occuring within the last 10 years.  You can use that information for now casting.  For now casting, you can pretty much ignore the models and start going on instinct and various real time indicators on what is actually occurring. 

This system will be discussed and argued, many arguing over semantics or defintion.  Some have already said that this system "dry slotted".   I will disagree.  To me, a dry slot occurs when a storm occludes, becomes intense and mature, and forms the standard comma shape.  The intensity of the storm draws in dry air from hundreds of miles away.  This was not the case.  One of the key ingredients for snow, cold air"  was advecting into the system ahead of the storm.  Cold air, as we know, is drier.  The dynamics of the system was not as intense in this area.  Again, the main dynamics were to remain north and east of Manhattan.  Some warned of a "warm nose"  that would cut down on snow totals.  Though not wrong, if the dyamics were as the models depicted, the warm nose most likely would not have changed the snow to sleet, or rain.  The fact is, the precipitation stopped at times after an intial light covering of snow.  With very little lift, virtually no dynamic atmospheric cooling. 

Present HRRR suggests some "back building" of snow into the area, at least through mid morning.  This could bring Central Park nearer to the lower end of the 4" to 8" range, which some will say that the forecasts were accurate.   I disagree.  The dynamics of the storm that were forecast simply missed Manhattan.

31 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

its because a layer of warmth surging now north and east

 

The system is weaker, which is why we saw several breaks of sun during the day.  90% of the time, when it become overcast, and sun breaks through, it is the kiss of death.  Didn't say anything earlier, didn't want the weenie tag.  Also, the center of the storm is north.  Maybe see some moderate snow as more consistent precip moves our way?

Changed to sleet here in Garwood, central Union County NJ.  Tell me its because of the light precipitation and not that the atmosphere is warming at upper levels...

Nary a flurry in Garwood, central Union county NJ.  Feels cold at 29 degrees.

Hard to say where influences come from. Some could be inherent within one's self. For example,my affinity for bluegrass could have come from the Beverly Hillbillies or Andy Griffith. 

Check out the weather maps from the 1964 Rudolph the Red Nosed Reindeer.  Isobars, pressure systems, almost subliminal.  By 10 years old, I had my own Weather board. 

On 12/24/2025 at 9:03 AM, North and West said:

Was zoning out last night and put on Fox Weather. For years, I’d just zone out with TWC. It’s not bad and better than When Alligators Attack or Ice Road Bandits or whatever series TWC pushes in prime time nowadays.


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11 hours ago, North and West said:

Good luck! Will miss your posts. Retiring there or moving for work?


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Thanks.  Retired already.  

6 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

Congrats on the move! Hopefully you continue to check in here. Cheaper cost of living and still can get snow can’t go wrong with that

My new neighborhood have some wild hills, right outside my door on the street.  And since I doubt they salt and plow like we do, I may sleigh all the way down and into the lake.  

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I remeber hearing the quote "historic torch coming" regarding Christmas Week about ten days ago. Things do change in ten days. 

Yeah, most long range forecasts, after the previous snow, said no more chances until after New Years...