Dark Star

3 hours ago, MANDA said:

Totally agree with you.  It all started with every event after November 2018.  I never remember it before that and vividly remember it after that!

100%

Some say it's liability.  Bulldinkies.  it's all about looking like you are doing something.  Somehow, I don't think road salt and chemicals have gotten any cheaper.  I remember some winters when they would run out...

As I live and breathe, I did not buy into this post.  Woke up to about 0.1" of the white stuff.  

48 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Just back in time for the 60 degree cutter!

So many late 70's cutters.  Even in Coal Country in NE Pennsylvania, saw many a New Year's Eve storm start out as snow, but eventually change over to a plain rain...

40 minutes ago, psv88 said:

So far it has snowed 3 times this winter and we’ve had no accumulation to show for it. Maybe we had some slush on the grass earlier but I was asleep. So three trace days. Pretty bad 

Actually, I'll take the sugar coating from early this morning.  No snow on the streets, but that didnt stop the Garwood DPW from salting.  While the Garwood DPW always does a great job plowing, they HAVE to stop salting, unless absolutely necessary...

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Patience

I never did learn how to read these things...

12 minutes ago, SI Mailman said:

Snowing here on Staten Island

Flurries, perhaps mixed with graupel here in central Union County NJ...

1 hour ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

The 12z nam also shows snow showers for tonight. It's def trending that way.

Some are even suggesting drizzle.  Which adds to my defense of my "Snow is a miracle in the NYC metro area", statement...

12 hours ago, RU848789 said:

Well, it is in Ulster County, which is part of the NYC DMA, as is LBI, in Ocean County, so if one uses the NYC DMA it's part of NYC Metro.  Not everyone uses the DMA, of course.  It's also closer to Central Park than the east end of LI, which I think everyone would consider part of NYC Metro.  

 

Totally different climate, winter weather wise.  

51 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Geographically Bellayre is souther NY state. It's weird how the population of New York views everything 30 miles north of where they live as upstate. 
 

Binghamton is the southern tier of New York and that area is referred to as such on thruway maps, yet 90% of the residents of NY view it as way the hell upstate. 

But Bellayre is certainly not NYC metro...

52 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

I agree with this.  You remember the 70’s and 80’s on LI?  I remember cod and dry. Not snow like we got 2000-2018.  1996 was special because it truly was a one off on LI.  
Snow was always going “north and west “.  Countless times predicted snow became cold rain. 
Many different components need to come together in order for it to snow on LI 

Snow, in general, is a miracle in the greater NYC metropolitan area...

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

This past one at the surface had a good track but the high was booted out like no one’s business and the surface winds turned SE ahead of it at the coast. Also it was on the move so fast that the mid levels could not develop a CCB and wrap cold air in after the surface to mid levels were torched. Maybe in Feb with the coldest waters of the season and preexisting deep cold air mass this could’ve worked. 

I didn't like the positioning of the high pressure system...

3 hours ago, psv88 said:

A shame Friday won’t work out. Cant believe mid Atlantic snows before us 

It seems that's becoming more and more the norm...

6 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

An outside chance as the low pressure pulls away to the east that NYC and LI briefly flip to light snow before the precip ends tonight. Maybe a dusting if that.

WX/PT

If I had a nickel...

1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

Wasn't too surprised we didn't get any flakes here, but would've thought Garwood would get some...

A report of 3.5" in Kittatiny Lake NJ...

There was no mixed precip here in Garwood (central Union County NJ), not even at the onset.  Steady light to moderate rain.  Would have been nice to see a few mood flakes, no doubt there was some just a few miles to my west.  At least it was something to track.  On to the next "threat"...

19 hours ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

If surprize snow does fall,this is the week historically for it. It might even snow a little tomm am. Who really knows anymore? 

My wife reported snain, right at the very beginning, brief though it was.   Garwood NJ (central Union County)

What can Vocanic Winter share about possible Hawaiian volcanos and Mount Rainier tremblings?

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

We need it to cooperate.  It is a bigger factor than the nao imo.

Pacific Jet has been a relentless monster for the NYC metro area for years.  

17 hours ago, Sundog said:

Do you know how hard it is for the EPS to show such a negative anomaly in the long range with our background state?

Not sure.  Stratospheric warming is supposed to bring down colder air, although I'm not sure this exact scenario as pictured will materialize...

18 hours ago, Wannabehippie said:

Keep in mind that chatGTP is not the be all and end all of accuracy. it is only as good as the search terms, and what is inputted in to it. Too many variables at this point with it IMHO.

 

I assume that future AI models will be excellent, being able to correct biases, and errors from the last run if initial 6 hour forecast(s) don't verify.  Anyways, I'm optimistic (for once)...

39 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Frost was everywhere this morning here. 

Same here in Garwood NJ, Central Union County

On 11/18/2025 at 12:43 PM, Brian5671 said:

That would just bring cold and dry to us-forcing the storm track well south.  

I would rather have a source of cold air, than hoping for the exact right setup...

4 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

I forget when Jeff moved to Florida but when he was still on WCBS here he would occasionally post on here, or maybe it was on Eastern before this one.

I think on Eastern.  Jeff would have post snow storm analysis.  What went wrong, or right, with most major winter storms.  It was a great learning tool.  He used to state, "The devil is in the details", meaning there are clues as to the outcome of each winter storm.  It is a matter of choosing the correct clues.

Jeff Beradelli has stated that sudden stratospheric warming will begin today, dropping a polar vortex into the northeast by early next month.  

1 hour ago, steve392 said:

Was a wild winter day today. Watch F18's take off from Teterboro then drive to watch landings at the sideways runway. Lots of go arounds happening early afternoon.  Atc giving out warnings non stop about turbulence and max gusts for smaller aircrafts. 

Chance of flurries tonight?