Dark Star

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Why would Virginia Beach be cold enough for this to be all snow? Hopefully just the long range NAM F'n with us. 

Rates?  Just a guess...

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is a blizzard for I95

But is the GFS AI a little farther east?

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

This is dejavu from last year when the models show a huge snowstorm just a few days out only to take it away. Even the euro showed a big snowstorm and lost it.

It was also around this time.

I don't think the models showed a huge snowstorm a few days out.  Maybe about 8 days ago, one or two models were showing a snowstorm.  From what I have been following, most models have been south and east since this Monday.  Most probabilities were low.  However, I feel your pain.  I was hoping things would trend westward.

Mizzle at 36 degrees in Garwood, NJ.

6 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

For NYC and south yes. There's another half of the forum north of NYC. 

You folks are in a different climate...

11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Blizzard watches were discontinued in late 2017. 

I hate when age old definitions are changed.  If it is not snowing, but if the snow on the ground is wind driven fiercely enough, give it another name.

42 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

U
K
M

 

 

Two closed lows?

2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This one is going to require fairly perfect timing of the western ridge building.  Pretty much any delay in that or any unforseen disturbance at this time flattening that ridge will kill this.  I think it'll be Thursday before we know much

Hmmm, sounds like this applies to any potential snow situation?

2 hours ago, MANDA said:

1.3" here from .08" liquid.

M.T.D. precip: .11".  M.T.D. snowfall: 2.0".

Click map to enlarge.

Amazing, there appears to be a very narrow (5 mile wide) snow hole from New Brunswick NJ up to Northvale NJ.

12 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

I may be wrong but hasn't there been a handful of more snow then forecast events this winter, compared to normal?  The delayed winter weather advisory last week,  this one doing a bit better,  and I think a few others? 

Rare to have positive busts.

Less than an inch here in Garwood NJ.  Within the range of most forecasts.  However, my now casting skills are horrendous.  I saw the precipitation shield last night and thought my area was in for at least 2 inches.

16 hours ago, dWave said:

Snow is melting but fairly slow for mostly sunny and 46F day. That sleet content must have some real staying power. 

Yes, but the deep freeze afterwards solidified the entire profile into any icy mass.

2 hours ago, Franklin0529 said:

This was always a minor event if anything. Take the 1-3" an run. It came out of nowhere 

So this isn't a weaker version of a system progged over a week ago?

59 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I'm not sure how old you are but we've had some really good winters the last 35 years. This winter doesn't compete with those yet. Let's see where it stands at the end of March. 

True dat, but at least we did have a winter.  Relatively short, as it looks like it we will be in a warming trend to close out February?

5 hours ago, ILoveWinter said:

Feels like we haven't had a Spring with nice long lasting ridging in quite some time! 

Please, that's all we normally have every season...

2 hours ago, TJW014 said:

Up to 45. Not even wearing a jacket. 

River ice is 11" thick. Time to go and do some stupid shit before the ice melts. 

We would love to see a video of you on this...

2 hours ago, kat5hurricane said:

It doesn't matter where you live, saying winter is over on February 11th is stupid.

While anything can happen in March, you can get a good read in general of what the rest of winter will be like by around the 2nd week in February.  

42 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I don't think it's likely to happen, but we can hope for a 12z CMC type of solution with a wet snow event for the next potential storm Sunday night into Monday. Would be nice to get at least a little accumulation from that storm to assure that February won't be a shutout. I am glad that we're going into a mild pattern for awhile after that potential storm. We can use some 50 degree weather after how cold this winter has been. 

25 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

The CMC Para last night was pretty wild lmao. 

The map doesn't show a snow hole over central Union county NJ

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The entire winter has been very dry going back to November

Yes, but we had multiple snow events, most of them light...

37 minutes ago, NyWxGuy said:

I would say A for cold definitely. For snow, meh. 2014, 2015, 2018, 2021 all had more. If we don't snow anymore rest of season, we're still below average. I doubt that would be the case but for me it's all about snowfall. If it's not going to snow, I'll take deep cold so at least it feels like winter. But ideally, 2021 was a great season. No crazy cold, but consistently snowy. That's the perfect winter 

Yes, but the snow is sticking around.  Obvously we would like MORE...

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

32 already. Maybe make it to 36 or 37 today

Not sure.  Temperature wasn't expected to go too much higher...

2 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Plows went by my house this morning pushing the snow back further. Weird to do this without a true threat on the horizon yet, but I guess they want to push it back before the next deep freeze. 

Most of the towns in Union County should be carving the corners, etc...

4 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

then a few days later a rain storm ? do you buy that ?

Sigh, that's what happens during colder than normal winters.  Cold and dry, then before a reset of cold weather, a brief warm up and rain.

On 1/31/2026 at 8:39 AM, coastalplainsnowman said:

I was taking a look at the Southeastern States board since they are being impacted by the snow today. The ups, the downs, the worry about whether it's going to materialize, other people responding relax, etc.  It's like observing a parallel universe. And just like people might say on here to coastal folks like myself when we don't jackpot, I'm thinking "you live in coastal South Carolina!  Why would you expect a lot of snow?"

I noticed the Wilmington NC area was dry slotting yesterday.  Oh, the pain...

1 hour ago, TJW014 said:

Radiational cooling did its job last night. Starting the day at -7 this morning. 

Off to get the DN and Skeeter ice boats ready for this afternoon

Send us a picture, or maybe a short video!

9 hours ago, Dan76 said:

How about the parrots.

Aaaarghhh