Dark Star

8 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yes but not for Debbie Downers

16 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Climate is dynamic and ever changing, 1840s is not relevant

I don't know.  I feel that all recordable history events are valid and relevant.  I am in the minority that average temperatures should factor in from whenever we first started recording.  We use maximum and minimum temperatures from inception...

56 minutes ago, ag3 said:

I don’t believe they clear the board every time they measure. That was the old way every 6 hours.

Now, I believe it’s clear the board after 24 hours or when there is a change of precip type.

 

Every 6 hours was silly.  The actual snowfall is what is on the ground (or measuring surface), rather than a theoretical depth not accounting for gravity or other physical properties.  And I believe there is an average based on a differernt number of spots, so as to account for variations due to drifting, or is this just for larger snow falls?

54 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Newark airport measures 4.2 inches and LGA also 4.2 inches and right in between the two Central Park, for once, correctly measures 4.3 inches and now someone on social is suddenly concerned Central Park over measures. Amazing.

I received 2.5" (maybe 2.8" figuring in compression), so I would naturally assume Central Park was not going to excced central Union County NJ (about 10 miles south/southwest of Newark Airport).  But the storm was farther north and east, so the CPK measurement is not suspect, in my opinion...

4 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Part of it is we all look at snow maps instead of soundings but yes the gfs and other colder models kept showing snow in areas that started as sleet and then got dry slotted 

I still contend that the lack of snow in areas such as Union county NJ was that the center for the storm was too far north.  Areas north and east of NYC got the jackpot.  Without enough lift in my area, the storm dynamics fizzled.  Had the storm been more intense, it would have easily overcome the "warm nose" and "dry slot".  To reiterate an earlier post, we are mainly disagreeing over semantics.  

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I wonder if ocean effect can ever produce a real snowstorm (6"+) in this region 

I don't really recall, although I think Long Island does occasionally receive some ocean/sound enhancement?

Measured 2.5" at 6 AM.  It snowed about another 1/3", but still just measured 2.5" at 8:30 AM.  I guess the difference was lost to compresssion.  

30 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

"Screw zones", in my defintion, are different than dry slots.  It is an area of poor dynamics.  You are not necessarily incorrect.  The cold air advection out ahead of the storm caused drier air.  However, the main lifting of the storm was always going to be north and east of the this area.  

NWS defines a dry slot:  

Dry Slot

A zone of dry (and relatively cloud-free) air which wraps east- or northeastward into the southern and eastern parts of a synoptic scale or mesoscale low pressure system. A dry slot generally is seen best on satellite photographs.

22 minutes ago, TriPol said:

If this isn't a dry slot, I don't know what is.

"Screw zones", in my defintion, are different than dry slots.  It is an area of poor dynamics.  You are not necessarily incorrect.  The cold air advection out ahead of the storm caused drier air.  However, the main lifting of the storm was always going to be north and east of the this area.  

This particular discussion is only about Manhattan, specifically Central Park (despite its notorious poor snow depth reportings).  My interpretation is the storm was a bust.  Some could argue, in a broad sense, that the storm was not a bust.  Strangely, all models came on board about 5 days ago that this would be an all snow event.  After 2 days in a row reaching the 40s (or more), the temperature miraculously cooled down just before the clipper like system was to arrive (cold air being one of the ingredients for snow).  The only thing peculiar was that the main dynamics of the storm would be north and east of Manhattan.  Historically, this is not a good recipe for an all snow event.  However, I was optimistic for a good snowfall, based on the model consensus.  EVERYBODY, or so it seemed, was saying that Central Park was going to receive a significant snowfall. I had not seen one of the models 00z run on 12/26/2025, which depicted a lighter amount.  Instead, I was noticing throughout the day on Friday, that after the overcast became solid, had begun thinning, and pretty much cleared at times, in advance of the storm.  Based on experience, 98 times out of 100, if the overcast breaks or the sun becomes visible hours before the storm, it will be a bust.  With the 2 out of the last 100 times occuring within the last 10 years.  You can use that information for now casting.  For now casting, you can pretty much ignore the models and start going on instinct and various real time indicators on what is actually occurring. 

This system will be discussed and argued, many arguing over semantics or defintion.  Some have already said that this system "dry slotted".   I will disagree.  To me, a dry slot occurs when a storm occludes, becomes intense and mature, and forms the standard comma shape.  The intensity of the storm draws in dry air from hundreds of miles away.  This was not the case.  One of the key ingredients for snow, cold air"  was advecting into the system ahead of the storm.  Cold air, as we know, is drier.  The dynamics of the system was not as intense in this area.  Again, the main dynamics were to remain north and east of Manhattan.  Some warned of a "warm nose"  that would cut down on snow totals.  Though not wrong, if the dyamics were as the models depicted, the warm nose most likely would not have changed the snow to sleet, or rain.  The fact is, the precipitation stopped at times after an intial light covering of snow.  With very little lift, virtually no dynamic atmospheric cooling. 

Present HRRR suggests some "back building" of snow into the area, at least through mid morning.  This could bring Central Park nearer to the lower end of the 4" to 8" range, which some will say that the forecasts were accurate.   I disagree.  The dynamics of the storm that were forecast simply missed Manhattan.

31 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

its because a layer of warmth surging now north and east

 

The system is weaker, which is why we saw several breaks of sun during the day.  90% of the time, when it become overcast, and sun breaks through, it is the kiss of death.  Didn't say anything earlier, didn't want the weenie tag.  Also, the center of the storm is north.  Maybe see some moderate snow as more consistent precip moves our way?

Changed to sleet here in Garwood, central Union County NJ.  Tell me its because of the light precipitation and not that the atmosphere is warming at upper levels...

Nary a flurry in Garwood, central Union county NJ.  Feels cold at 29 degrees.

Hard to say where influences come from. Some could be inherent within one's self. For example,my affinity for bluegrass could have come from the Beverly Hillbillies or Andy Griffith. 

Check out the weather maps from the 1964 Rudolph the Red Nosed Reindeer.  Isobars, pressure systems, almost subliminal.  By 10 years old, I had my own Weather board. 

On 12/24/2025 at 9:03 AM, North and West said:

Was zoning out last night and put on Fox Weather. For years, I’d just zone out with TWC. It’s not bad and better than When Alligators Attack or Ice Road Bandits or whatever series TWC pushes in prime time nowadays.


.

11 hours ago, North and West said:

Good luck! Will miss your posts. Retiring there or moving for work?


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Thanks.  Retired already.  

6 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

Congrats on the move! Hopefully you continue to check in here. Cheaper cost of living and still can get snow can’t go wrong with that

My new neighborhood have some wild hills, right outside my door on the street.  And since I doubt they salt and plow like we do, I may sleigh all the way down and into the lake.  

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I remeber hearing the quote "historic torch coming" regarding Christmas Week about ten days ago. Things do change in ten days. 

Yeah, most long range forecasts, after the previous snow, said no more chances until after New Years...

Maybe my last snowman. Not bad fer 1" of snow.  Moving to Morristown Tennessee in the spring...

Just about 1" in Garwood, maybe 0.9".  Snowing very lightly atm...

Very light covering in Garwood (central Union County NJ) except the streets are mainly wet.  Precip changed to a very light snain, but as intensity has increased, it has changed back to all snow.  

36 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

Eric Webb says winter is ovvvvvaaaa rover! 

Is this the earliest we cancelled winter?

6 minutes ago, guinness77 said:

That line they’re talking about must be the one from Long Branch to Toms River. It doesn’t look as bad as what’s passed but that has to be it. 

The line fell apart and was nothing more than a drizzle here in Central Union county, NJ.  Winds are relatively light, though were stronger around 6:45 AM.  

22 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Creeks are rising quickly due to the ground being frozen solid. My snow pack is now a few shoveled piles….

Farewell my friend, we hardly knew thee.

And, now off to chaperone a kindergarten Holiday party as my wife, who volunteered, is down with illness. 

The town of Cranford NJ still had huge leaf piles plowed into the snow.  Hopefully this doesn't cause more flooding than usual...

So, snow squall warnings have been in effect since 2023.  I don't recall any issued for 20 miles around NYC.  I would hate to see any issued for this particular area.  While we have seen squalls laying a quick coating, I would be bold enough to say it would be nothing like what the warning was intended for, for severe squalls coming off the lakes.  However, it seems these things are relative.  To me, an actual snow squall creates true whiteout conditions, where you can't see 10 car lengths ahead of you, and/or snows a few inches in a matter of minutes.  NYC immediate metro will probably never see one of these.  The ferocity almost always wanes as it passes the Appalachians and then the Watchungs.  Areas like White Plains or NW Jersey may have seen something like that.  Peopel will rationalize, "well if it warns people of an impending light squall, people will be better prepared and perhaps avoid traveling at that time", then it is okay to issue the warning, no matter how minimal it is.  I just don't want to see it issued here.  Most of us have never experienced TRUE whiteout conditions.  I couldn't imagine not being able to see my hand outstretched in front of me because of snow.   -  Crochety Old Fart -