Dark Star

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Through 3:25 pm, Newark has picked up 1.91" of rain today. That breaks the daily record of 1.57" from 1955. Through 3:32 pm, LaGuardia Airport has seen 1.41" of rain. That breaks the daily mark of 1.18" from 1955.

Holy crap, around noon time, Newark only had 0.75" (the NWS is only showing 1.15" for Newark airport?)  We did get some heavier downbursts after 12 pm to about 2 PM.  No flooding in the immediate area.  But looks like NYC received a heavier band that was somewhat training over the area.  I see Newark updated its rain totals, reflecting what you said earlier...

47 minutes ago, steve392 said:

Is this system over performing?  Been non-stop heavy rains all afternoon. 

That's almost always debatable.  The rain is "showery" in nature.  Most of the day featured on and off showers, mainly light in nature, with some heavier downpours.  But, depending upon your exact location, you may have had more persistent heavier bursts.  Certainly Northeastern PA was a bullseye, as forecast.  Seems like your area was another bullseye.  We had a snowstorm, I think within the last 10 years that was extremely spotty, some areas getting 20"+ and other areas 5", from town to town.  I can't remember a snowstorm that was that "convective" before.  Then within a week or so later, another snowstorm was forecast.  Storm Field was predicting the exact same thing, extreme variations in totals, as though suddenly this was a new trend.  The snowfall amounts in the 2nd storm were much more uniform.  

2 hours ago, Dark Star said:

Models looking pretty good in general.  They had at least one bullseye over northeastern PA, and that looks to be panning out...

Okay, maybe not.  Everything looks to be moving out when forecasts called for the heaviest between this afternoon and this evening?

24 minutes ago, Neblizzard said:

Union county NJ deluge along with 40 mph winds.  Over an inch of rain so far. 

Around 3/4" in Garwood, central Union County.  Rain intensity is variable, sometimes coming down at 50 degree angles, other times not so much.  Wind light at times to moderate...

Models looking pretty good in general.  They had at least one bullseye over northeastern PA, and that looks to be panning out...

6 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Models overnight seemed to get a little better for more widespread 1-2” rain across the area. Maybe we can have a low develop for a while along the front and enhance the rain to the east of the main low. In any event it’s still much needed.

Edit-6z looks lame east of the city again and many would have a very quick dry slot and under 0.5”. 

New12 NJ called for 0.5" generally throughout the state yesterday.  I would place my money on that forecast...

4 hours ago, Sundog said:

This week's system is still evolving, I see a dryslot

Dry slots seem to have become a norm?

4 minutes ago, Sundog said:

About eight times the current missing American balloon data is absent globally on any given day, and yet we don't see extensive articles talking about models not performing as they should because of all those missing balloons. 

I hope we don't get into a pissing contest, blaming poor forecasts on budget cuts?

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

Pretty strong signal for a little cooler than average trough in the Northeast into early November.

 

No cold (direct) polar air yet in our area.  If I read Don correctly, when the coldest air is in Siberia around this time, we should probably expect the dreaded Pacific Jet to dominate?

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

BTW @NEG NAO I also asked ChatGPT to break down the weather data network weather models ingest and to give me a percentage of the data the missed balloons represent. 

It did an extensive breakdown which is a lot to post, but the missing balloons represent between 0.01% to 0.028% of weather model data. 

I also researched the typical daily missed balloon launches worldwide for any reason, and that amounted to an average daily model ingestion data gap of between 0.097% to 0.24%.  This is for balloon launches specifically. 

In other words the sky isn't falling. 

 

We do know that more real time data should result in better model forecast outcomes.  However 0.01% to 0.028% is pretty low.  I would guess we had a lot less in the 1970s and 1980s?

3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 84 (1947)
NYC: 84 (1920)
LGA: 82 (1947)
JFK: 81 (1963)

Lows:

EWR: 31 (1974)
NYC: 31 (1871)
LGA: 33 (1974)
JFK: 31 (1973)

Historical:

1743: On the evening of the 21st Ben Franklin had hoped to observe a lunar eclipse in Philadelphia but cloudy skies from a VA coastal storm hide the moon. Franklin later learned from sources in Boston that the same eclipse seen in clear skies in the NE but a violent storm hit them the next day. Franklin reasoned that it was the same storm and that weather moves.
(Washington Weather Book 2002 by Ambrose, Henry, Weiss)  It puzzled Franklin that the system seemed to move from southwest to northeast even though winds at his location were from the northeast. He theorized the winds in the storm system must have been rotating around a center. A brilliant deduction considering he had no satellite to show the big picture.
(Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1780: Spanish Admiral Solano was enroute from Havana to Pensacola in October 1780 to capture the important port city. The third major hurricane of the month swept north through the Gulf of Mexico catching and scattering the fleet of 64 warships. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1804: First snow of the season seen by the Lewis and Clark Expedition near Bismark, North Dakota. The snow fell to a depth of one-half inch. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)
 

1934 - A severe windstorm lashed the northern Pacific coast. In Washington State, the storm claimed the lives of 22 persons, and caused 1.7 million dollars damage, mostly to timber. Winds, gusting to 87 mph at North Head WA, produced waves twenty feet high. (David Ludlum)


1952: Earliest first frost in Washington DC. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)
 

1957 - The second in a series of unusual October storms hit southern California causing widespread thunderstorms. Santa Maria was drenched with 1.13 inches of rain in two hours. Hail drifted to 18 inches in East Los Angeles. Waterspouts were sighted off Point Mugu and Oceanside. (20th-21st) (The Weather Channel)

1975: Carlton Fisk made history on this day because of a walk-off home run in the 1975 World Series, after rain had postponed it for three days.

1987 - Cold arctic air continued to invade the central U.S. Eleven record lows were reported in the Great Plains Region, including lows of 12 degrees at Valentine NE, and 9 degrees at Aberdeen SD. Temperatures warmed rapidly during the day in the Southern and Central Plains Region. Goodland KS warmed from a morning low of 24 degrees to an afternoon high of 75 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Joan, the last hurricane of the season, neared the coast of Nicaragua packing 125 mph winds. Joan claimed more than 200 lives as she moved over Central America, and total damage approached 1.5 billion dollars. Crossing more than 40 degrees of longitude, Hurricane Joan never strayed even one degree from the 12 degree north parallel. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Unseasonably cold weather continued to grip the south central and southeastern U.S. Twenty cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Calico AR with a reading of 26 degrees, and Daytona Beach FL with a low of 41 degrees. Squalls in the Great Lakes Region finally came to an end, but not before leaving Marquette MI buried under 12.7 inches of snow, a record 24 hour total for October. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1996: A state of emergency was declared in Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Maine after a powerful coastal storm dumped over a foot of rain causing massive flooding. Portland, ME recorded 7.92 inches of rainfall in 24 hours to set their rainfall record.(Ref. AccWeather Weather History) Boston, Massachusetts on the 20th and 21st had the greatest 24 hour precipitation of 6.66 inches for the month of October. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

1998: A tropical depression formed in the southwest Caribbean Sea, about 360 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica. This disturbance would intensify over the next few days to become Hurricane Mitch, a monster storm that would eventually become the second deadliest Atlantic hurricane on record, behind "The Great Hurricane" of 1780 in the Caribbean. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

Good Old Ben...

17 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It reminds me of when the 1978 February Blizzard was predicted a week out, whatever happened to the model that did that anyway? We could use it with how poor skills the models have been showing for winter storms (or the lack thereof) the last several years.

 

The Limited Fine Mesh...

45 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Far more likely, the potential tropical cyclone will approach or die as it heads toward Central America or flung NE/ENE out into the Atlantic. A lot would need to happen for the capture to play out. Models don’t have skill this far out on such details.

Except the Euro predicted Sandy hitting NJ a week out.  That gave birth to the Euro being the "best" model, until it wasn't..

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

72 here but too windy

Humidity is a bit much..

3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

51 / 46 (11 Hours of daylight) Clear then partly / mostly cloudy later.  Warmest of the next week or two perhaps much longer than that.  low - mid 70s in the warmest spots (76/77).  Front comes trough later this evening and overnight 0.50 - 1.00 of rain (most north).  Dry week - near normal overall warmer Tue cooler Wed - Fri.  Next weekend looks dry and cooler into the week of the 27th..  Cutoff storm into the midwest to be ironed out along with what will be Melissa in the 10/29 - 11/3 period. Could be an interestingly unsettles close o the month.

10/19:  Warmest of the next week or longer 
10/20 - 10/27:   Near normal overall coolest  next weekend
10/28 - 11/3 :   Cutoff into the Midwest,  Melissa could be near along the EC

 

11 hours, seems less than that.  I guess we only notice when the sun is up, versus twilight during dawn and dusk...

On 10/14/2025 at 7:19 PM, MJO812 said:

Sandy 2.0

540 Thickness all the way up near Hudson Bay

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

Even partly cloudy forecasts are not materializing.   I did see mostly sunny and still see that for this area of NJ.

Sunny now...

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Yea that mostly sunny forecast is a bust

Actually, the forecast was for clouds between 11 am and about 2 PM (at least I think from Fox5 yesterday), however, I see your point.  The NWS does say mostly sunny, while their Forecast Discussion does mention a frontal passage early this afternoon...

14 hours ago, dseagull said:

Duration under gradient.   Thankfully, neap tides.  Its bad, but ive been here for many decades, my entire life.   I still havd visual tide guages from 40 years ago.  Id love to blame my areas back bay flooding on sea level rise, but thats not the case.   There have been tremendous man-made changes to the inlet and surrounding areas that are almost certainly responsible.   

 

To each their own.  

It may be very difficult to define how much extra damage is caused by the sea level rise.  What astonishes me, is that the 6 to 10 inches in sea level rise over the last 100 years is not uniform.  I think most of us originally learned that sea level is uniform, and all bodies of water, including landlocked ones, seek to reach sea level.  So a lot would depend on local topography and man made containment.  I'm sure the west coast, with it's pronounced sea bottom drop off, has much different impacts on flooding than the shallow east coast sea bed.  First we woud have to explore the generalalities of coastlines, then focus on specific local impacts the sea level rise would have on flooding and beach erosion.  

19 hours ago, MANDA said:

I think it is safe to say this storm went as advertised for coastal NJ and Long Island in terms of wind gusts, power outages, coastal flooding and beach erosion.  Rainfall varied from west to east and no totals really out of hand.

I don’t quite get the number of inland power outages as this was pretty much run of the mill in my area.  Rain with wind gusts of 30-35 mph should not be knocking out power.  Guess trees still in full leaf part of the problem?  Not like the ground was saturated so don’t quite get it.   Coastal NJ as expected took the brunt of this.  Some impressive videos from along the NJ shore.

I don't agree with "as advertised". Yes, it was a Nor'Easter, with all the usual conditions as you stated.  But it was not nearly as intense as advertised.  We can nit pick every last stat.  Again, that is not to downplay the results, but it could have been much worse.  The duration was the main player, which increased flooding and beach erosion...

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

wow massive flooding near Jamaica Bay both in southern Queens and SW Nassau.

I have to wonder how much of this is because of climate change induced sea level rise?  This storm, while strong, didn't seem to be strong enough to cause such a surge! Major flooding in Lindenhurst too.

 

 

Sea levels are a few inches higher due to climate change, but it is the duration of the northeasterly fetch more so than the intensity of the storm causing the flooding and erosion.  It would be interesting to see how much the increase in sea levels does affect coastal flooding.  

35 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

I feel the beach erosion along the NJ Shore is going to be a lot worse due to the  more NNE wind component rather a more easterly one. Look at any of the beach webcams and that current is hauling north to south. 

This was predominantly a beach erosion storm?  Hopefully there was no "out of the normal" flooding. 

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Tidal: am virtually certain moderate CF develops at Sandy Hook area midday... long duration of minor tidal inundation.  Tides still running 3' above predicted at 940A.  Should make about 8' MLLW there. Not sure what OKX has but follow what ever they have including the datums they select. 

Above predicted for this storm?

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Isolated spots may be pick up an additional 2" between now and 8PM, along the coasts... IF convection emerges this afternoon as modeled by the HRRR.

Looks like pretty good impact,  travel wise per TV reports and what has been posted here this morning. Anticipate DELAYS and maybe some detours. 

Will post a summary report tomorrow morning around 9A, for CoCoRaHs 3 day totals but looking good.  Wind driven rains this morning... intermittent in some spots.

About 1.08" at Newark so far...

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

1.14 inches total here. 25 miles to my west (port jervis, high point NJ area) I'm guessing they are hard pressed for half an inch. If this were a snow event there would be a huge cutoff and lots of snow deprived. 

Since just a few miles inland, most of the precipitation was light, I would imagine that the same event in February would have been just a wintry mix.