Dark Star

59 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I'm not sure how old you are but we've had some really good winters the last 35 years. This winter doesn't compete with those yet. Let's see where it stands at the end of March. 

True dat, but at least we did have a winter.  Relatively short, as it looks like it we will be in a warming trend to close out February?

5 hours ago, ILoveWinter said:

Feels like we haven't had a Spring with nice long lasting ridging in quite some time! 

Please, that's all we normally have every season...

2 hours ago, TJW014 said:

Up to 45. Not even wearing a jacket. 

River ice is 11" thick. Time to go and do some stupid shit before the ice melts. 

We would love to see a video of you on this...

2 hours ago, kat5hurricane said:

It doesn't matter where you live, saying winter is over on February 11th is stupid.

While anything can happen in March, you can get a good read in general of what the rest of winter will be like by around the 2nd week in February.  

42 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I don't think it's likely to happen, but we can hope for a 12z CMC type of solution with a wet snow event for the next potential storm Sunday night into Monday. Would be nice to get at least a little accumulation from that storm to assure that February won't be a shutout. I am glad that we're going into a mild pattern for awhile after that potential storm. We can use some 50 degree weather after how cold this winter has been. 

25 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

The CMC Para last night was pretty wild lmao. 

The map doesn't show a snow hole over central Union county NJ

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The entire winter has been very dry going back to November

Yes, but we had multiple snow events, most of them light...

37 minutes ago, NyWxGuy said:

I would say A for cold definitely. For snow, meh. 2014, 2015, 2018, 2021 all had more. If we don't snow anymore rest of season, we're still below average. I doubt that would be the case but for me it's all about snowfall. If it's not going to snow, I'll take deep cold so at least it feels like winter. But ideally, 2021 was a great season. No crazy cold, but consistently snowy. That's the perfect winter 

Yes, but the snow is sticking around.  Obvously we would like MORE...

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

32 already. Maybe make it to 36 or 37 today

Not sure.  Temperature wasn't expected to go too much higher...

2 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Plows went by my house this morning pushing the snow back further. Weird to do this without a true threat on the horizon yet, but I guess they want to push it back before the next deep freeze. 

Most of the towns in Union County should be carving the corners, etc...

4 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

then a few days later a rain storm ? do you buy that ?

Sigh, that's what happens during colder than normal winters.  Cold and dry, then before a reset of cold weather, a brief warm up and rain.

On 1/31/2026 at 8:39 AM, coastalplainsnowman said:

I was taking a look at the Southeastern States board since they are being impacted by the snow today. The ups, the downs, the worry about whether it's going to materialize, other people responding relax, etc.  It's like observing a parallel universe. And just like people might say on here to coastal folks like myself when we don't jackpot, I'm thinking "you live in coastal South Carolina!  Why would you expect a lot of snow?"

I noticed the Wilmington NC area was dry slotting yesterday.  Oh, the pain...

1 hour ago, TJW014 said:

Radiational cooling did its job last night. Starting the day at -7 this morning. 

Off to get the DN and Skeeter ice boats ready for this afternoon

Send us a picture, or maybe a short video!

9 hours ago, Dan76 said:

How about the parrots.

Aaaarghhh

59 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

A fresh surge of Arctic air is moving into the region. Tonight and tomorrow night will likely see the temperature bottom out at their lowest levels this winter. Single digits are likely in Central Park. The last winter with more than one single-digit day was Winter 2022-23 when there were three such days. 

Highs will be mainly in the upper teens and lower 20s through Saturday. The last winter with more than one high in the teens was Winter 2018-19 when there were two such days. 

Temperatures should begin to moderate on Sunday into early next week and could briefly rise to or above freezing. Nevertheless, readings are likely to remain below normal into at least the start of next week.

Some light snow or flurries remains possible on Sunday if a developing storm passes close enough to the coast. This outcome is not assured. Eastern Long Island into southeastern New England would have the greatest chance of seeing an accumulating snowfall. 

Overall, January 20th-February 3rd will likely be the coldest and perhaps snowiest two-week period this winter. The forecast WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern is typically the coldest pattern in January and among the coldest during the first half of February. A persistently positive PNA will have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. 

For perspective, the coldest two-week period this winter prior to January 20th was January 3-16, 2026 and January 4-17, 2026 with a mean temperature of 30.3°. The snowiest two-week period was December 14-27, 2025 when 7.2" of snow fell. Already, snowfall since January 20th has surpassed that figure.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +6.84 yesterday. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -4.195 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.2° (3.5° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.4° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

Wow,  -4.195 AO !!!!

2 hours ago, AdMC said:

Less mosquitos this summer I guess?

Dunno.  They have killer mosquito swarms in the arctic, always have...

9 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I feel bad for the people in Virginia who thought they were going to get a 40 inch snowstorm at the start of the week. 

Not really, feel sorry for us...

54 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Even cape cod don’t really get anything…. What an awful storm lol 

I was stoked, but now accept the inevitible...

7 hours ago, eduggs said:

If other guidance eventually matches the NAM and we get one more small tick closer, this would be a fun nowcast on Sunday for coastal regions. I'm doubtful we even get that close given the persistence of unsupportive modeling outside recent ECM runs. But it's still a low level chance IMO.

gone...

12 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

It's fascinating that the NWS Philly is still hugging the NBM (model blend), below, which is an outrageously snowy outlier right now (as is the NWS-Boston), but not the NWS-NYC, which is favoring the rest of the models showing little to no snow outside of eastern LI. See the discussions below from the NWS-Philly and NYC. I think the NBM can be a good tool, but it is time lagged (it includes current and previous runs of over a dozen models), which is good for not bouncing all over the place, but I don't understand relying on it when it's this much of an outlier.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
531 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

Deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to show the
potential of some sort of system developing off the Mid-Atlantic
coast next weekend. The latest deterministic models are trending
towards a coastal scraper, with direct hits along the shore and
Delmarva, while the Poconos and nearby locales are spared
completely.

In terms of probabilities and potential impacts....the latest
NBM has 24 hour probabilities of snowfall > 4 inches around 20
to 25 percent north and western zones, around 40 percent I-95
corridor, near 50 percent immediate coast. In terms of timing,
if this storm affects us it could arrive as early as late day
Saturday and then last through Sunday. It should also be noted
that this storm may have significant winds with it such that
even if the center of the storm tracks well offshore, coastal
areas could still have strong winds.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
632 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

Regarding the potential for a coastal storm for this upcoming
weekend, if any impacts were to occur it appears that the timing
would be late Saturday night and into Sunday, and possibly Sunday
evening for some eastern sections. Most of the dynamic modeling
continues to show the storm being the nearest of misses, or, with
the NYC metro not experiencing any snow impacts. The longwave
pattern does amplify, but the mean eastern trough also begins to
progress east while amplifying. A good rule of thumb is whether the
500 mb vorticity maximum or the 850 mb low gets north / south of
Cape Hatteras. Just about all the dynamic and AI modeling has the
vort max / 500 mb low going just south of Cape Hatteras.
Climatologically that is a miss with respect to big snow for our
area. In some cases far eastern areas get brushed. Therefore, at
this point in the modeling / forecast process the most likely
scenario is the nearest of misses. However, some impacts cannot be
completely ruled out, especially further east as there remains some
room for the modeling to wobble slightly further west which would
bring eastern portions of the region in play for some minor to
moderate impacts. Some coastal impacts remain a possibility in terms
of minor coastal flooding. Stay tuned to subsequent forecasts for
any changes.

The Mount Holly discussion is dated 2 days earlier than the NYC discussion...

5 minutes ago, Freezing Drizzle said:

You would have loved February 5, 1978, the great northeast blizzard of 1978. Did a loop.

I got 18 inches, here.

I would like to see 48"...

24 minutes ago, MANDA said:

There are a few of those I think on that map I posted.

Except this particular one is unverifiable.  The rest were farther north...

Snowing very lightly in Garwood  (central Union County NJ).

6 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Storm total snowfall and QPF:

Click to enlarge maps.

QPF clearly over performed even the wettest guidance, in some cases by 1/2" or more depending on the location and model of choice.  The models ticking up the QPF as we got closer to the event start time was clearly on the right track though.

Quick spot checks on ratios and nothing to write home about when averaged out over the storm duration....roughly 8:1 to 12:1 along the I78-I80 corridor and east across the city and LI.  Just did a quick spot check.

I'd have to give a nod to the higher QPF totals for getting storm total snowfall to near or over the high end ranges of the forecast.  If they had been more or less as modeled in the 1 to 1.25" and taking the actual ratios into consideration storm total snowfall would have been closer to the lower end of the forecast ranges.  Just my 2 cents.

The 14.8" west of Elizabeth Nj appears to be an aberration?

18 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The sleet didn’t knock the depth down here either, guess there was 2” or so of sleet but it all counts and you can see now how much denser it made the snowpack. 

Shoveling 2" of sleet was no picnic.

6 minutes ago, Picard said:

Now I'm questioning my own 12.2" total because it does seem a bit low compared to others around me.  Admittedly, I did not do the clearing technique which I should, so it was probably more (say 13-14") but it had compacted.  Mom in Lafayette is telling me 16" but admits it was hard to measure.  Either way, I'll take a foot plus.  It was a fun storm.

always good to question our own measurement techniques.  This storm was difficult, especially with drifting.  I guess if I could sign up for 9" of snow, and then 2" of sleet on top of that, I would, 100% of the time.  Secondary did little for NE Jersey, except cause the dry slot.  Seems to be an "incongruity" in easter Bergen County, with measurements up to 16"?  While further west in Bergen county, snow measurements were more like 10"-12".  I first thought that the changeover was delayed there, but then theorized that a heavier band must have come through, before the changeover?