Dark Star

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

single digits?  I guess with the fresh snowpack and radiational cooling

Sometimes after a good coastal storm, we get an unexpected pull of colder air, not seen by the models that picked up the coastal storm.  Go figure...

6 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Babylon official reports are like 29/30

i took measurements all around my yard. They range from 15-40 lol. I don’t know how they can have an accurate reading. But whatever. It’s a lot. 

The wind was blowing here, but not like on Long Island.  I was able to get some good representative areas in NJ.

1 hour ago, Northof78 said:

How much did you record/measure in Garwood?

20", but I measured twice.  Once at 17.5", cleared the area, then another 2.5" fell after that.

Dave Curren of NJN12 news said that Newark officially met the blizzard criteria for at least 3 straight hours last night, so one less thing for me to opine about...

1 minute ago, Freezing Drizzle said:

Could be, some hotspots under these bands.

20" here in Garwood (unofficially).  Unofficial, because I cleared my driveway which had 17.5", then 2.5" more has fallen since.  Still snowing lightly in central Union county...

16" so far here in Garwood NJ.  Admittingly, I just saw as near "Whiteout" conditions as I guess I will ever see when a gust came through and blew snow off the rooftops and trees...

2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Per latest it's down to 979 mb and it's not moving! Here's last 3 updates 

Thanks.  Not moving is key.

Has any area reached sustained winds of 35 mph or more with visibility less than 1/4 mile for at least 3 hours yet?

6 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Mega deform band Philly through NJ to Westchester

Seems to be following the Watchung ridgeline?

6.8" measured at 10:30PM in Garwod NJ (central Union County).  Snowing moderate to heavy.  

2 minutes ago, SleetStormNJ said:

I don't know how you have 3.5, when I am right by and already have just over 5 inches - 5.2 actually to be exact.

My son measured, so it wasn't official...

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

 

Easily >2 inches hour rates currenrly

Send some here...

24 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

some of us are confused that you have a red tag identifying you as a meteorologist....this would indicate at least a BA. i understand you don't learn everything in school, and maybe you specialized in tornados for all i know.....otherwise i don't find you offensive.

Graduated back in 1981.  I haven't been an active forecaster for most of it. I see a lot of generalizations and optimistic wish casting, which can be confusing.  I am hoping for an epic storm, but trying to keep my expectations in line with the models and present storm signals.  So far, my area has received 3.5" and it is snowing moderately.  My guess is that Union County in NJ will get 8-14".  However, Sacrus just recently posted a map for tomorrow morning, showing the low still off NYC, which would indicate it is not moving away too fast.  If that is the case, maybe higher amounts?

5 minutes ago, Ridgewoodweather125 said:

Yes definitely moved basically straight N since the last time someone posted a map of the Low


.

Excellent.  Some models have it moving Northeast...

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

Your trolling today has been particularly insufferable. 

I am always trying to learn.  Did you also hear that there is little blocking if any?  What will make this storm last until Monday afternoon?

2 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Need to see some yellow.

Don't eat yellow snow?

12 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Still snowing 18hrs from now.

That would be incredible.  Some were saying there was no real blocking?

21 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Disclaimer: still snowing after this.

Interesting, with no blocking.  Does this system slow down on its own?  Some said it could do a bit of a loop.

5 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Yikes.  Is a dry slot possible sometime after midnight?

I think "it" just arrived here in Garwood NJ...

1 hour ago, jdt said:

.

?  Heavier impulses moving through are not real banding, such as in deformation zones, occlusions, warm fronts off the ocean.  What is depicted are normal waves moving along.  These typically do not make the difference between 12" and 20".  Slight variations perhaps.  Banding, in my opinion is used too broadly.  

11 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

Snow sticking to the trees and nowhere else not even car tops, I don't recall that happening many times. 

Is this how '96 started out?

5 minutes ago, jdt said:

I agree with that for the typical NW NJ jackpot zone from Highland Lakes / West Milford to Hardyston, Sparta Mt, Jefferson to Hopatcong. But I think still a very solid chance of 24”. It’s that early stage nervousness as some guidance backs off / shifts around while we watch it develop in real time. Will be mid to late afternoon until the more organized banding begins to really develop and we can begin to truly know which way this is going.


.

What kind of banding?

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

who can explain why most of the models are shifting east with totals all of a sudden - what is it being caused by ? I can't figure it out - could it be any mixing issues or  dry slots ?

Not mixing issues or dry slots, but the most intense precipitation is over the Delmarvala.  Unless this thing sits a while, it may be gone too quick?

Switching over to snow in Garwood NJ (central Union County).  I need a minimum of 14 inches.  Heaviest precip over the Delmarvala.  Is that too far north?