MANDA

Same here. We kept the heat off but chilly in here. Overnight low 38 here on top of the hill. Valley spots a few degrees lower. Overall a very chilly morning across NJ:

Never paid attention to this before. Have they always used this color scheme? It is a joke.

GFS is a useless model. Not sure why anyone uses it for anything more than 36-48 hours in advance. It flips and flops like a fish out of water from one run to the next. The big snow event in the Northeast last February was one of the very few times the blind squirrel found the nut.

Dipped to 31 in Walpack overnight. Lots of upper 30's around the state in spots that radiate well. Even as far south as Vineland in far south Jersey. Temperatures per NJ WXNET. Overnight low here was 42 on the top of the hill.

Currently 38 in Walpack and 41 in Sandyston per NJ WXNET. Those places in the NW Sussex County valleys radiate like crazy so sub freezing likely there come Wednesday morning and close to freezing in a few spots tomorrow morning.

No matter what there is high confidence in a strong STJ developing as we head through Fall and Winter. Almost seems like a given at this point. Storminess will abound. Hopefully we can time some moisture with bouts of cold air. Lots of questions as to the amount of cold that will be available and how it evolves over the central and eastern US north of the Mason Dixon line. I think an interesting Fall and Winter ahead but details who knows.

Nice graphic. Hard to envision a hurricane coming out of this but a wet TS affecting portions of the Gulf coast seems a like a reasonable expectation at this time.

Just amazing photos as always!

Beautiful morning with nice breeze, blue skies and cool temperatures. Overnight low of 51. Leaf color change becoming rapidly noticeable up this way. Pumpkin spice everything is everywhere. The pick your own apple orchards are hurting with many closed due to the Spring freeze.

Interesting link. Thanks. Will be interesting to see where this season ends up. I would take the over on 17.4 but hard pressed at the moment to see where that comes from. Still time to add ACE. Clock is ticking on getting a hurricane though.

I know 1914 has lowest ACE on record. I consider anything not in the satellite era questionable. In the satellite era what season has lowest ACE?

Pretty impressive and leaves a lot of coastal locations open to further trouble as we head through Fall and Winter.

Pretty impressive and leaves a lot of coastal locations open to further trouble as we head through Fall and Winter.

Crazy storm in a crazy season. The rebirth of Fay and the birth of not so horrible Hanna will get us to just over 10 ACE points season to date as we close September. Still waiting on the first hurricane of the season. We've blown past that record.

Record high tide ranking.