MANDA

I'll say this.....the visible satellite pictures off the Northeast coast Monday are going to be a sight to behold.

Said this a few times yesterday. This is going to do better than 10:1 at times during the storm.

Nice look with the 20" number in NEPA. Offers some credibility on solid amounts getting into NWNJ.

Solidly driving very heavy amounts well into the Catskills FWIW.

With the 12Z data so far this morning I am comfortable with my 10-15” forecast for my area. Don’t plan on any changes until after I see the mesos this evening. I think it is a good blend between the insane NAM totals and tamer RGEM.

My forecast as of now for my location is 10-15”. Trying to stay reasonable. Banding and extent of NW push will tell the tale.

Last night I thought I would be happy with 12”. Now I want 18” or bust.

Watch these meso models now to see how this starts to evolve. These closer in tracks with a track to inside the BM will up the ante.

Like the look of this. Will get the nuclear totals solidly into NWNJ. Almost go time. 12Z Mesos will start really zoning in on this one way or the other.

If these trends hold absolutely. Going to be some insane banding as this matures.

So sorry. Truly.

I think the winds will break up the dendrites and slightly temper accumulations but I don't think this is going to be a wet paste type of snow that clings to everything such that it will bring down trees and power lines. Not going to be champagne powder either.

Yes. Especially in heavier bands.

By Saturday morning after 12Z cycle everyone was going ape shit. Remember it well.

Have to agree. Start there and see how things look after 6Z and 12Z tomorrow. Can always go up....lose credibility if you have to drop too much.