MANDA

Mt. Holly cut back totals over SNJ.

I gotta agree. Watching the NAM closely and not ignoring it. To blindly write it off as wrong is setting yourself up for disappointment. At least keep it in the back of your mind. If it is doing this on the 12Z runs tomorrow believe it. Still early enough for pause with it as of now.

We know that but does most of the regular public know that?

I’ll take my weather app for the win.

Yeah. Verbatim it just about makes it to my location and stops.

Just based off the 00Z NAM for what it may or may not be worth I'm good with my 6-10" early call. We'll see how it plays out.

If that is indeed the track they take, I need to see rest of 00Z guidance before I lean that way, then 100% we're going over to sleet for a large part of this sub forum. You can't avoid mid level warming with 700/850 lows to Lake Erie. This is where we were at at 9:00 this morning. The 12Z guidance and 18Z guidance for the most part backed away from that, except for the CMC stuff. Let's see what the rest of the 00Z guidance has to say.

When I went through it it was just cold. In this situation the cold will be extreme. Can't imagine no heat in this.

Went through that once. Never again I hope.

Out of our area but check out this sounding from RDU area. Warm nose is rather deep and freezing layer is very shallow just a little above the deck at about 1000 mb. level. Some locations down that way are going to get crushed with ZR and be without power for days in bitter cold. Bad scene.

More recon, this time over the Gulf going into the models.

I can give you a few candidates I'd lay money on.

I wonder why?

Journalism is DEAD. Died a long time ago.

Got up to 45 here. Not sure what the forecast was. I wasn't paying attention. I like that my heating system got a 1 day reprieve.