MANDA

Flakes and graupel here.

Looks like the best echos are going to pass north of me, more over Sussex County. Still I think I get clipped by the southern end. Will keep you posted.

Rainfall was sparse up this way from event just ended. I did better than I thought by a couple of tenths but just NW of here it was a struggle to reach 1/4". Overall the dry pattern continues. We're going to need a significant pattern shift to get some coastal systems or inland runners to boost the long term rainfall totals. And before anyone says "what dryness" see the attached link. It has been dry across NJ for the last 12+ months. https://www.njweather.org/content/quickly-out-gatedrought-persists-december2025-annual-report

Lot's of energy expended last few days on this upcoming non event. It never had any kind of remote support from ANY ensemble guidance and the best modeling we have (ECMWF) never had much of anything. GFS is a follower not a leader. Without some kind of steady multi cycle support from at least the CMC or better yet the EURO best to ignore it. In my opinion the GFS will never be the first to sniff anything out 3-5+ days in advance. MAYBE if it has some ensemble support from its own members it might deserve some attention otherwise I ignore it. For now I'm more interested in the return to colder starting later next week and beyond.

To each his own I guess.

Thanks very much.

Yeah….torch. Not.

Hi Don. Is it possible when you get a chance to let us know the temperature anomalies starting last Tuesday through today? Say at ISP, LGA, JFK, CP, EWR and MMU? As you said the warming has peaked. Temperatures for the coming week look to me to average within 1 degree of normal. It was milder this past week for sure but not a torch in my book. Any stats appreciated. Thanks. Also if you could include monthly departures month to date?

Over the last 2-3 days yes. But 5-7 days ago I was in 1-1.5” from most guidance and WPC.

Rain is looking sparse up this way today. So far just .04". Radar clearly shows the bulk of this will be south of my location. Another precipitation event that is much lighter up this way than what was initially modeled several days ago. I'm wondering if we'll even break 1/4" up this way and NW of here. After today the model consensus AT THE MOMENT looks to be on the dry side for the next 5-7 days with a cooling trend back to seasonable and then colder beyond next weekend.

I'll give it a chance....looks like it could be a positive change / addition. I believe I read most if not all NWS offices will be adopting this new format?

Rumblings on some longer range guidance of major cold returning to the central and eastern U.S. once past 1/17. We'll see but there is still a bitter cold pool of air over NW Canada and Alaska and it isn't going away soon. Hard to imagine how we avoid at least some of it with increasing signal for +PNA developing. Stay tuned....more to come. Snowfall / storm track as usual is uncertain. Cold could overwhelm the pattern and keep snowfall on the limited side.

Still looking good !

Some BIG parking lot mounds my area. They will be around for a while. Plowed areas in my neighborhood likely gone by the weekend.