MANDA

Told my peeps across central and north Jersey this afternoon: 6"+ as a starting point.

Canadian skill scores are notably higher than the GFS. I’d keep the Canadian option on the table for the moment. Let’s see what the UKIE AND EURO have to add shortly. GFS skill scores are at the bottom of the pack.

Modeling through 06Z and ICON at 12Z so far have been pretty steady with QPF of between .7" and 1.1". Be happy. Be ecstatic with that right now. Be happy. Be ecstatic with 10:1 - 12:1 ratios. Consider anything above 12:1 as gravy *IF* it happens. To assume at this point 15:1 or 20:1 is just foolish.

Got down to 6 here on top of the hill, my location is the highest point in the area. Other readings at lower elevations around me were in the +1 to +2 range. Saw a +5 and +7 but not sure of their elevation. NJ coldest mins:

Sorry I missed that! Was living in Chatham, NJ at the time and don't remember exact numbers from that cold and icy winter but I do remember it was COLD!

Yeah, I wish there was more data. If the -34 was correct I would have to agree the NW NJ ice box spots might have been -40. I have always thought the -34 was too low though. Would like to know more about it. Good luck getting your weather station up. Shoot for Thursday....warmest day we'll see for a while.

Current temperatures at or below 10 across NJ. Only made it to 19 here today under bright sun. Currently 8. Cold by all accounts I'd say.

A note about the EURO. It has been trying to pop a surface low south of L.I. on the last few runs at some point Monday. That is what keeps the precipitation going thus adding to the QPF forecast totals. That is kind of a wildcard in my opinion. If it happens, where it happens and how strong it gets. Something to watch on future runs.

It is trying real hard for something special.

Gotta like that look. Just need to keep it or improve on it. If we can keep these 18Z trends going at 00Z and then 12Z tomorrow that would be great....at least on the EURO, GGEM and UKMET. If the GFS comes to the party and stays so much the better.

Only difference is that was a coastal bomb with very intense deformation banding for hours mid and late storm. This upcoming event is not really a synoptic comparison. At least not at this time. Get the full energy out of the SW and a complete, clean phase then all bets might be off. No matter what, we have a legit threat of something late weekend into early next week and for me half the fun and excitement is in the tracking.

WPC is not known to making large jumps with this product which is issued twice a day. Over the last several issuance's the 1/2" area has been gradually shifted north to a TTN to NYC line. I believe they rely heavily on NBM but not sure.

15:1 possible assuming soundings are favorable. Me personally I'd stick with 12:1 for now when calculating snowfall off the current QPF forecasts. Not to mention in a long duration storm the ratios can change from high to low or vice versa during the storm duration. Deformation death bands can produce great ratios. So maybe a storm that has 10:1 to 20:1 throughout the storm duration averages out to 15:1 when all is said and done. Just to early make ratio forecasts. Way to premature to even stay 15:1 IMO.

No way in hell at this point to determine where best snow growth will be, banding and lift etc. We're still trying to figure out the synoptic situation much less pull apart soundings 120 hours out. Surface temperatures alone do not determine ratios. A gusty wind can reduce ratios. Not to mention how much against climo 20:1 would be for the metro. JB is a great one for pushing 20:1 / 30:1 ratios and I can't think of ONCE when he was right on that during a moderate or major storm.

I believe you but that is an absurd statement for them to make.