MANDA
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At least where I was living for Irene, Ida and Floyd Irene was a distant third compared to Floyd and Ida. Also on Floyd, I remember looking at the radar starting around 6am and it was a text book Predecessor Rain Event (PRE) in the making. Classic.
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Floyd rainfall. Was in southeast Morris County at the time and had just over 10" from mid morning to late afternoon. It was a non stop deluge. River and road flooding was beyond description for several days. Ida in 2021 was a close second and actually the intensity was greater (in terms of hourly rainfall rates) than Floyd. Ida did her damage quicker. Floyd was more prolonged and continues torrential rainfall and overall totals were higher with Floyd where I was living at the time.
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Same here. Just clipped my area. Skies partly cloudy right now.
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Skies brightening here. Based on latest visible will be seeing breaks here over the next 60-90 minutes.
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Rainfall totals through about 8am from current event. The places that have gotten the most rainfall recently continue to get soaked.
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Another solid soaking overnight into earlier this morning. Received 1.92" along with vivid lightning and some loud thunder. Getting too wet at this point. Need to turn these firehose events off for a while. Too much of a good thing.
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If the tropics showed any sign of life I'd be concerned about something sneaking into the southwest Atlantic and having a blocked escape route but tropics look to remain quiet for the next 7-10 days. Depending on how far west the ridge can flex this pattern could be one that produces above normal precipitation. Keep the weak trof axis along the Appalachians or over the Ohio Valley and the ridge off shore and a deep southerly flow could aid heavy rainfall, depending on synoptic setup.
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The shear over the Caribbean is nuts so nothing gonna come through there. I'd watch 20-30N and west of 50-55W for anything to get going beyond 10 days. Big plume of dust coming across over the next week or so. Climo ramping up as we move through August so will be interesting to see what can get going with developing and already strong El-Nino.
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Last of the showers finally rotated through here about 10:30 last night. Picked up an additional .04". July ended up with 8.99" here and that is on the lower side for my area. Looks like another general 1" of rainfall next week. Locally higher amounts possible. Nice day today!
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This is what you call cyclonic rot July style. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_NE/loop60v.html
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Rainfall totals covering the entire event. Surprised the totals over the western third of Massachusetts are not higher given the radar over that area most of yesterday. Click to enlarge.
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Radar shows it finally pulling west and north of Albany proper but damage is clearly done.
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Deep moist fetch being rammed into the higher elevations and wrung out. Orographic lift going full bore. Bad situation.
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If you didn't know any better you would swear some tropical remnant merged with a frontal system was cutting into SNE this morning. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_NE/loop60v.html
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One and two days totals: Click map to enlarge.
