MANDA

Low of 4 here. I was going to post about the -17 in Walpack and I agree they could sink lower than that before the worst of the cold peaks.

18z CMC and Euro got 9/50 dropscondes in their data set... 0z suite should have them all Lifted from NE forum.

In this cold I'm happy to stay home with the fireplace going and the tunes cranking. No desire to be out in this for any length of time. Took the garbage to the curb this morning and nearly broke my neck on a thin layer of frozen slush, probably should not have been wearing flip flops though. Roads around around here are still only one fully clear lane in spots. The snow / sleet combo and the absolutely frigid temps is highly unusual around here. Salt just has not been super effective. The snow mounds in the Shop Rite lot are huge and will likely be around well into March I'd say. Cars are in the garage here and even that is about as cold as it gets in there at 40 degrees.

11.5 degrees currently with steady light to sometimes moderate snow. Windy as well. Looks like Old Forge, NY out there. Low gray overcast, deep snow cover and the air filled will falling and blowing snow. Gotta feel sorry for anyone who has had to work outside this month. Except for a several day pause in the cold earlier this month it has been brutal. December was no bargain for outdoor workers either.

I've not looked yet but that is surprising and not a good signal. I would have bet there would have been some at least some ensemble members with a decent hit.

Look at the first map in that loop, that was the model cycle that gave us the massive hit. Upper low closing off over eastern KY/TN and the trof was already starting to tilt negative. Much more the look of a big MA/NE snowstorm.

Not to mention that a closed upper low on the SC coast at 06Z Sunday is heading essentially due east. Just not a good look in my opinion. Just not closing off in the right place and trof axis which at that point is neutral is too far east. Wind max has already rounded the base of the trof. and add the kicker to that and you have an OTS solution as depicted. If we are going to get anymore than a coastal fringe up here there needs to be rather significant changes in how the 500MB flow evolves over the next several days. Not saying that is impossible just commenting on the way the EURO has things progged now.

Heads up... this map is MM, not inches of QPF. 25 mm = 1".

This look verbatim is not going to do it for us. Even a neutral tilt would be better than this.

Some peaceful pictures on a cold morning. CP and cardinals puffing up to keep warm in Kentucky.

Looks great. Can you snap the same picture on Sunday morning for us!?

My opinion on this map and on this map only....Ridge out west not sharp enough and trof too far east and positively tilted and best 500 MB HT departures too far south and east. Not much downstream to force the trof to start to swing negative in time to make surface feature come up the coast and close enough. Hence probably why the OP is OTS. If the above ends up being close to reality not a good look for us. Having said all that....still lots of time for changes....for better or worse.

Well that stat says keep your enthusiasm in check.

Surprised no Kuchera maps posted yet.

The jokes just write themselves with that one !