MANDA
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Agreed. If it can hold the convection overnight and still looks like this on first visible pictures we should have a least a TD by tomorrow 5am....maybe even a TS if we get a good ASCAT pass over the next 6-10 hours. Winds were marginal TS earlier but circulation was not completely closed off, no west wind. This satellite pic looks healthy. Thinking along the lines of TD or TS next 2-3 days then weakening beyond that and perhaps if it can hold together enough some regeneration north of the islands or east of the Bahamas down the road. Most guidance has shifted south and west last few days indicative of a weaker system I believe.
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Can't beat this weather with a stick. Sunny and 57 this morning. Just can't ask for more to close out August.
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Yep. If we are going to add any ACE to August will have to come from 96L and that is struggling this morning. I'm still taking the under on the CSU 2026 seasonal ACE of 50.
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Not looking good but still time for changes. I'm not optimistic at this point though.
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Lunar eclipse coming up late Thursday night into very early Friday morning. Hope the weather cooperates.
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Agreed. Less hostile look midway across but once to 55W conditions deteriorate. Something is going to have to find a "sweet spot" somewhere to be a bigger player. Caribbean still shut down. If something can make it to the SW Atlantic and time a trough correctly or get pushed westward under a ridge then maybe something interesting for U.S.
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Waters off the east coast certainly lost the chill of early to mid summer in a hurry.
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Nice way to end meteorological summer! To me at least out in my area of NWNJ the summer did not seem all that hot. There were hot days for sure but it was not endless day after day to 90+ out this way. Humidity was another story so glad to get break from that.
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I think we could easily go through the rest of August with <5 ACE points. Zero additional ACE points certainly in play but not ready to go that low just yet but certainly possible.
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ABSOLUTELY BEAUTIFUL!
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Solid soaking for everyone. Most guidance did well showing where the max area of rainfall would end up from NYC on east. Was expecting 1-2" here and ended up with 2.14". Lesser amounts just NW of here up into Sussex County with generally 1 to 1.5" up that way. Either way everyone has had enough rain lately! Meteorological Summer which has 10 days left to go has been wet. In some places VERY WET.
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Feels amazing out there. Temperature 59 with a gusty NNE wind. Feels like mid September! Opening the windows tonight! Rainfall for the day: 2.14". August to date: 7.61" Since 7/1: 16.60" Since 6/1: 22.11"
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Don, Just curious. Does that 1.82"/hr. land on a top 10 hourly list for CP? Are the totals from Ida remnants at the top of the list? Thanks-
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Torrential downpours over the last 2 hours or so. Based on radar the heaviest of the rain is through my area. Just light to some moderate rain next 90 minutes or so. Eyeballing the gauge it looks like about 2". That would put me at 7.5" for the month of August so far. Will get an exact measurement about 9:00 or so. Came down is torrents at times. Thankfully the heaviest has passed through and totals around here did not go off the rails.
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Rain has begun here. A few brief heavy downpours but they moved through quickly. Radar filling in.
