packbacker
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Everything posted by packbacker
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Thanks Bob! You can already see the GEFS bringing cold back in the plains quicker the past few runs. I thought it would be early Feb by the time we got back into a -EPO/+PNA pattern again but GEFS sure is trying to get there a little quicker.
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Pretty much...perfect event would be a 4-6” event. Hangs around for the next day and then 60’s and outside weather the following. I would never survive in the NE. I like tracking, like watching it fall. Then I want life back to normal. I do want to end our sub 10” season drought ASAP.
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It’s coming! I think... Look at that block on the EPS and what’s rolling over from Siberia. We are in a nina...it has to come...or does it
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Impressive setup day 7-8...negatively tilted trough, lowest DN in GA. I haven't really been watching this period so not sure if this what it's been showing though. That atlantic ridge should help to keep the wide rights back in play.
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Sucks about your water heater! It’s coming but before then day 6-9 there is a chance.
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Or this...
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Work with this...
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It's going to be all for nothing if we can't muster up more snow then 1" this winter. This is year 14 since our last double digit snowfall season and we have 1 6"+ snow since 2004. I don't even like thinking about it anymore, it's the worst period for living in Raleigh for snow and it seems like no end in sight. #snowholeFTL
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I have a heated/cooled crawl so it's strange the tankless is freezing this bad. The outside pipes are insulated really well and the inside pipes are in a conditioned space. Starting to worry something else might be wrong because it's been like 2 hours off/on with a hair dryer, it usually at most takes 30 mins.
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It’s a tankless on outside wall. All week I have programmed my dishwasher to run at 2-3am and that has worked to keep it from freezing. This morning I thought it worked, got up at 5:30 and it was still working. But at 7:30 it stopped. Been trying since with hair dryer and no luck. All this cold for 1” of snow isn’t worth it.
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To get to our Fab Feb we have to go throw a ridgerrific pattern for a week or so. By next weekend you and ColdRain will be salivating over the 11-15 day pattern.
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The 6-10 is back at the cold look again.
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Yep...ready to be done with the cold. Tankless froze up again, been trying to de-thaw for the past hour and so far no luck. Never been this hard to de-thaw...but a low of 1F will do that I guess. Friday I am going to have to turn the AC on...low in the 60's on Friday morning. 60F+ higher for the low then this morning....
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GEFS has a few members with trailing lows...like this one.
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Can the NAVGEM score another...almost a Franklin/Mack special. Definitely a western Carolinas and MA special.
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This is out there but GEFS has that look...ridging into AK, trough spilling into the plains. Also, so far the trop PV isn’t consolidating, still fragmented per GEFS.
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The one he created for December, back in mid Nov, pretty much nailed December pattern.
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Hope...these have been good in the past
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So weeklies show a flip here...week 4, trough in the sw but they have been doing that all winter in the extended when they had a -EPO.
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Before winter started I think we all hoped these analogs would show up...so far it's a good match through the first 5 weeks. Interesting that all 5 of these analogs had a big winter storm in Feb...2001 was kind of weak but I would take it.
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Edit: Just realized...weeklies are freely available here. http://wx.graphics/models/eps/eps.php
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5 members on the 18z GEFS have snow down in the Carolina's day 8-10. This is the most fun one...
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Not sure about Jan but it’s interesting that of similar strength -enso, 2013, 2012, 2009, 2008, 2006, 2001, 1997, 1996...they all had atleast minor events in Feb. So we will be tracking something in Feb I would hope.
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Heats coming there too...bundle up. Takes time to evacuate all the cold air to Russia.
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LOL...I posted the 850 map, GEPS 850's looks like the GEFS too. This is a warm pattern in the extended whatever model you look at. JMA seasonal weeks 3 and 4 makes the pattern below look frigid. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/pztmap.php
