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zwyts

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Everything posted by zwyts

  1. zwyts
    16/13, -SN, 1"
  2. zwyts
    pending the final result, it doesn't feel like a rug pull to me. Maybe in Feb or March we'll get a stronger STJ and get something that's modeled better.
  3. zwyts
    5z HRRR still has a 14z flip time for DCA.
  4. zwyts
    yeah. i said 7.1" but that's probably a little too rosy for terminal A
  5. zwyts
    if DC is DCA, i'd probably put the o/u at 6". Looks good tho.
  6. zwyts
    I'd make the sleet side soft serve ice cream.
  7. zwyts
    i like 8-10" for Washington DC. DCA, I don't know because of how low they are sometimes. 7.1".
  8. zwyts
    you're going to get a foot. that's my forecast for Leesburg
  9. zwyts
    3z HRRR is a 14z flip for DCA. seems reasonable.
  10. zwyts
    A friend in Fairlington is reporting -SN
  11. zwyts
    I thought this was funny and helpful. I don't know what a sleet sprinkle is, but you get the drift ETA - i get it, and I would love a donut
  12. zwyts
    I think a lot of people get excited about digital snow, but it also reminds us that in a nina, with a tricky phase, we're almost lucky to be getting what we're getting versus nada or 54 and rain
  13. zwyts
    I thought this was a pretty cool and helpful map.
  14. zwyts
    It's really hard. We've faded modeled warm noses before, but the setups were a little different and models were not as skilled. 2/25/07 was an all snow event that was supposed to flip. But that's almost 20 years now.
  15. zwyts
    CWG was suggesting an 11:30-ish start for Alexandria/Arlington. I think that's probably too late.
  16. zwyts
    19/0, cloudy
  17. zwyts
    i would lock in 15z for DC without even taking a second to think about it
  18. zwyts
    that's how it's done in this area. the streets are painted white with salt
  19. zwyts
    6-10"'incl sleet. changeover 8-9 am.
  20. zwyts
    I don't think snow amounts are as consequential this storm other than for stats. I think 6" of snow followed by sleet would be satisfactory for east of the fall line. 4" would be disappointing. But climo usually has the last word.
  21. zwyts
    Not sure if 22z HRRR has been posted This could be a snow sounding. 14z is clean. 8-10 am will be an interesting window. I think it's clear that a 16z flip for DC would require a little divine intervention.
  22. zwyts
    arctic dust. it's not often we have the airmass to support it. We had a storm maybe 10-ish years ago where it was 15 at onset and we managed to squeeze out an inch but the ratio was like 6:1. Good luck getting the dendrites
  23. zwyts
    they even used to have a confidence bar to boot. For a public facing product, you don't fix something that has worked for decades. You make a forecast. And you bust or you don't.
  24. zwyts
    even if the euro were to flip in immediate DC metro at 15z Sunday. That's around 8-9" of snow followed by 3" sleet. This is a truly sick run.
  25. zwyts
    the snow maps aren't really useful for this storm. figure out how much liquid you think you'll get as snow. apply a ratio (i think 13:1 for you). And make a forecast. I'll probably rip and read Euro QPF at 12z tomorrow. Tweak a little. It's really good that the Euro is King at QPF. Cause it's super wet.
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