zwyts
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Everything posted by zwyts
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GFS is about 8-9" for DC before the flip which is about 2-ish? we're hodl'ing at 18z.
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La Niña creates tricky storms. I don't think it's bad to keep in mind the ENSO phase when forecasting discrete events. Though we've had such a strong northern branch the last decade, we're all familiar with these setups.
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it's very wet. Luge time
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the warm layer is around 750mb. if it's shallow enough and we have rates maybe many will hold on to snow longer.
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there's really no reason to use a low res meso model outside of its range for granularity. But it is a red flag. fortunately the 3k is a bit colder
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i think the non-weenie move is to go with the earliest flip time if it's not a major outlier. and then maybe some people get lucky. mid morning? for DC
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3K is clean when it truncates
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thx. I've missed a lot of posts. he would be the man who knows.
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tomorrow check the model page. for big events they'll often run the firewx (1.33km) NAM over a certain area. https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php
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I was hoping the 1.33k NAM was being run over the Mid Atl tonight. maybe tomorrow 12z or 0z? ETA - we're too far out. maybe tomorrow.
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for ex...0.50" sleet at 3:1, almost 2"...Probably sweep, and use force when measuring...no plastic ruler
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column is borderline clean at 21z sunday...rates might matter a lot
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column at onset should inocculate us from quick flip
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I'd prob go 8-10" for DC for now to deemphasize the 6" (until things go sideways - if they do)
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flip in 2014 was nailed by the NAM
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Go with 18z and adjust as neeeded
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R you sure 700-850 isn't implied?
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8-12", then flip. easy forecast for DC
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we really need 750mb temps for euro
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