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zwyts

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Everything posted by zwyts

  1. zwyts
    more like 10-12" using liquid for immediate DC metro. we get dry slotted a bit .7 at 12:1 .7 at 3:1
  2. zwyts
    soundings maybe imply snow until 14-15z. it's after that that the nose goes full pinocchio. I think it's too warm. But if models trend toward an 8-9 am flip it's a 4-6" snow and then maybe 2-3" sleet. I figure a blended ratio of 12:1 for the snow portion here. I think 6-10" incl sleet is still the right forecast for now.
  3. zwyts
    It's not good. Especially at this range. I would maybe use it closer in, in conjunction with other models. But weigh it very little and toss if an outlier.
  4. zwyts
    Thanks. Still snow. I'm not going to use the Euro for thermals tomorrow. That's for hi rez mesos, but it's nice to know where the globals stand. DC really needs to protect itself against flipping before 9-10 am. I think the goal is 6" before the flip. A nice solid bed.
  5. zwyts
    The cutoff line for flip shouldn't be as severe as 2/12/14 when a few miles and a couple hundred feet bought you an extra 2 hours of snow. But the timing matters a lot of course. I could see Columbia get 10"+ snow.
  6. zwyts
    I don't think the forecast is terribly complicated for inside the DC beltway. Just a matter of settling on a range My temptation is to go 6-10" for DC incl sleet. This would imply 5-8" snow. But snow could be too low. All the globals give DC 6"+ using 12:1 ratios for the snow portion
  7. zwyts
    That's what i was wondering. Whether precip falling into a shallow warm nose, would change back to sleet when it hits those absurdly cold temps below 800 mb I think the deemphasis on ice here is probably the move for now. 50 miles south? that's a different story
  8. zwyts
    Euro is marginally colder, but within the moe for noise. I'd love to see Pivotal soundings for 16-17z Sunday. @yoda?
  9. zwyts
    Snow through 15z for DC and southern burbs since they will flip earlier - hopefully after 10 am but...
  10. zwyts
    this is near Leesburg
  11. zwyts
    It's marginal. For DC and southern burbs, I'm going with 16z flip to hedge against the scary models. I have a feeling that will be about right. We'll know tomorrow. I don't foresee a situation where models have settled on say a noon flip and we go to sleet at 8 am.
  12. zwyts
    For DC and South - precip after hypo 10 am flip
  13. zwyts
    yes
  14. zwyts
    it's good to have them incrementally given the changeover. otherwise i'd agree
  15. zwyts
  16. zwyts
    18z sunday for those lucky enough to make it there without the dreaded ping. probably north of 66, west of beltway has chance. DC and SE aren't quite making it. I'd take 11 am tbh
  17. zwyts
    looks more progressive and flatter which is good.
  18. zwyts
  19. zwyts
    yeah. not sure why I posted 18z Monday. I think meant to do 18z sunday.
  20. zwyts
    it looks kinda ugly. flip is around 17z maybe for DC.
  21. zwyts
    yeah. I'm not as apt to bite on that. I figure 12:1 is a conservative blend until we flip. then around 3:1.
  22. zwyts
    YMMV, but i think it makes sense to forecast snow amounts as "including" sleet since it's included anyway. 6-10" (including sleet) is better than 5-8" of snow. and then 1-2" of sleet
  23. zwyts
    yeah. even assuming 12:1, that's a good hit. I'm going with noon flip for DC for now. seems about the right time for the infamous sound of pinging
  24. zwyts
    this is for SE of 95. if we flip on the early side
  25. zwyts
    there's no real wraparound. we just get dry slotted. If GFS is right, Loudoun will get a lot of snow.
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