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zwyts

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Everything posted by zwyts

  1. zwyts
    This is 10:1 Canadian through 15z sunday
  2. zwyts
    it flips in DC around 15z probably, but it dumps prodigious amounts of snow before then. around 10"
  3. zwyts
    I'm guessing rimed snow/sleet is like 5:1 and barely sleet like 2:1?
  4. zwyts
    a million. You never think a warm nose can find a way through. But it does. That said, the NAM is also wrong a lot and I think it is probably early with the flip time
  5. zwyts
    23/2 here near Braddock Road metro. Just saw the 3k NAM. 5" snow followed by 3" sleet. Would still be quite the storm. You can't toss it unfortunately. Too many times we've seen mid level warm air punch its way well north and west than the globals suggested at 36 hours out.
  6. zwyts
    yep. i totally screwed up. flip is at 16z-ish as you say. would be 8-10" -ish
  7. zwyts
    i see around 0.85" through 18z which is a foot at 14:1 ratios. Not predicting this but holding on to snow for an extra 3 hours could mean another 4-5". The difference between a 9am and 2pm flip is significant as to totals and impact. ETA - i was on wrong panel. flip at 16z. 8-10" snow for DC.
  8. zwyts
    Wow. Flip isn't until 18-19z. DC gets 12" of snow and then maybe 1" sleet. Is this even possible. Not biting. ETA - I was on wrong panel. flip at 16z-ish.
  9. zwyts
    every hour delayed gets DC another inch. This run could be 16z flip. But even with a 15z flip, DC gets a solid 7-8" snow and then 3" of sleet. yikes.
  10. zwyts
    The GFS has trouble with east coast snowstorms. especially with a tricky northern stream Some people have drawn similarities to 2/12/14. The GFS wasn't on board until like 12 hours out. Which is to say. i think its too cold
  11. zwyts
    more like 10-12" using liquid for immediate DC metro. we get dry slotted a bit .7 at 12:1 .7 at 3:1
  12. zwyts
    soundings maybe imply snow until 14-15z. it's after that that the nose goes full pinocchio. I think it's too warm. But if models trend toward an 8-9 am flip it's a 4-6" snow and then maybe 2-3" sleet. I figure a blended ratio of 12:1 for the snow portion here. I think 6-10" incl sleet is still the right forecast for now.
  13. zwyts
    It's not good. Especially at this range. I would maybe use it closer in, in conjunction with other models. But weigh it very little and toss if an outlier.
  14. zwyts
    Thanks. Still snow. I'm not going to use the Euro for thermals tomorrow. That's for hi rez mesos, but it's nice to know where the globals stand. DC really needs to protect itself against flipping before 9-10 am. I think the goal is 6" before the flip. A nice solid bed.
  15. zwyts
    The cutoff line for flip shouldn't be as severe as 2/12/14 when a few miles and a couple hundred feet bought you an extra 2 hours of snow. But the timing matters a lot of course. I could see Columbia get 10"+ snow.
  16. zwyts
    I don't think the forecast is terribly complicated for inside the DC beltway. Just a matter of settling on a range My temptation is to go 6-10" for DC incl sleet. This would imply 5-8" snow. But snow could be too low. All the globals give DC 6"+ using 12:1 ratios for the snow portion
  17. zwyts
    That's what i was wondering. Whether precip falling into a shallow warm nose, would change back to sleet when it hits those absurdly cold temps below 800 mb I think the deemphasis on ice here is probably the move for now. 50 miles south? that's a different story
  18. zwyts
    Euro is marginally colder, but within the moe for noise. I'd love to see Pivotal soundings for 16-17z Sunday. @yoda?
  19. zwyts
    Snow through 15z for DC and southern burbs since they will flip earlier - hopefully after 10 am but...
  20. zwyts
    this is near Leesburg
  21. zwyts
    It's marginal. For DC and southern burbs, I'm going with 16z flip to hedge against the scary models. I have a feeling that will be about right. We'll know tomorrow. I don't foresee a situation where models have settled on say a noon flip and we go to sleet at 8 am.
  22. zwyts
    For DC and South - precip after hypo 10 am flip
  23. zwyts
    yes
  24. zwyts
    it's good to have them incrementally given the changeover. otherwise i'd agree
  25. zwyts
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