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zwyts

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Everything posted by zwyts

  1. zwyts
    I thought this was funny and helpful. I don't know what a sleet sprinkle is, but you get the drift ETA - i get it, and I would love a donut
  2. zwyts
    I think a lot of people get excited about digital snow, but it also reminds us that in a nina, with a tricky phase, we're almost lucky to be getting what we're getting versus nada or 54 and rain
  3. zwyts
    I thought this was a pretty cool and helpful map.
  4. zwyts
    It's really hard. We've faded modeled warm noses before, but the setups were a little different and models were not as skilled. 2/25/07 was an all snow event that was supposed to flip. But that's almost 20 years now.
  5. zwyts
    CWG was suggesting an 11:30-ish start for Alexandria/Arlington. I think that's probably too late.
  6. zwyts
    19/0, cloudy
  7. zwyts
    i would lock in 15z for DC without even taking a second to think about it
  8. zwyts
    that's how it's done in this area. the streets are painted white with salt
  9. zwyts
    6-10"'incl sleet. changeover 8-9 am.
  10. zwyts
    I don't think snow amounts are as consequential this storm other than for stats. I think 6" of snow followed by sleet would be satisfactory for east of the fall line. 4" would be disappointing. But climo usually has the last word.
  11. zwyts
    Not sure if 22z HRRR has been posted This could be a snow sounding. 14z is clean. 8-10 am will be an interesting window. I think it's clear that a 16z flip for DC would require a little divine intervention.
  12. zwyts
    arctic dust. it's not often we have the airmass to support it. We had a storm maybe 10-ish years ago where it was 15 at onset and we managed to squeeze out an inch but the ratio was like 6:1. Good luck getting the dendrites
  13. zwyts
    they even used to have a confidence bar to boot. For a public facing product, you don't fix something that has worked for decades. You make a forecast. And you bust or you don't.
  14. zwyts
    even if the euro were to flip in immediate DC metro at 15z Sunday. That's around 8-9" of snow followed by 3" sleet. This is a truly sick run.
  15. zwyts
    the snow maps aren't really useful for this storm. figure out how much liquid you think you'll get as snow. apply a ratio (i think 13:1 for you). And make a forecast. I'll probably rip and read Euro QPF at 12z tomorrow. Tweak a little. It's really good that the Euro is King at QPF. Cause it's super wet.
  16. zwyts
    This is 10:1 Canadian through 15z sunday
  17. zwyts
    it flips in DC around 15z probably, but it dumps prodigious amounts of snow before then. around 10"
  18. zwyts
    I'm guessing rimed snow/sleet is like 5:1 and barely sleet like 2:1?
  19. zwyts
    a million. You never think a warm nose can find a way through. But it does. That said, the NAM is also wrong a lot and I think it is probably early with the flip time
  20. zwyts
    23/2 here near Braddock Road metro. Just saw the 3k NAM. 5" snow followed by 3" sleet. Would still be quite the storm. You can't toss it unfortunately. Too many times we've seen mid level warm air punch its way well north and west than the globals suggested at 36 hours out.
  21. zwyts
    yep. i totally screwed up. flip is at 16z-ish as you say. would be 8-10" -ish
  22. zwyts
    i see around 0.85" through 18z which is a foot at 14:1 ratios. Not predicting this but holding on to snow for an extra 3 hours could mean another 4-5". The difference between a 9am and 2pm flip is significant as to totals and impact. ETA - i was on wrong panel. flip at 16z. 8-10" snow for DC.
  23. zwyts
    Wow. Flip isn't until 18-19z. DC gets 12" of snow and then maybe 1" sleet. Is this even possible. Not biting. ETA - I was on wrong panel. flip at 16z-ish.
  24. zwyts
    every hour delayed gets DC another inch. This run could be 16z flip. But even with a 15z flip, DC gets a solid 7-8" snow and then 3" of sleet. yikes.
  25. zwyts
    The GFS has trouble with east coast snowstorms. especially with a tricky northern stream Some people have drawn similarities to 2/12/14. The GFS wasn't on board until like 12 hours out. Which is to say. i think its too cold
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