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balltermen

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Everything posted by balltermen

  1. balltermen
    Not sure if 22z HRRR has been posted This could be a snow sounding. 14z is clean. 8-10 am will be an interesting window. I think it's clear that a 16z flip for DC would require a little divine intervention.
  2. balltermen
    arctic dust. it's not often we have the airmass to support it. We had a storm maybe 10-ish years ago where it was 15 at onset and we managed to squeeze out an inch but the ratio was like 6:1. Good luck getting the dendrites
  3. balltermen
    they even used to have a confidence bar to boot. For a public facing product, you don't fix something that has worked for decades. You make a forecast. And you bust or you don't.
  4. balltermen
    even if the euro were to flip in immediate DC metro at 15z Sunday. That's around 8-9" of snow followed by 3" sleet. This is a truly sick run.
  5. balltermen
    the snow maps aren't really useful for this storm. figure out how much liquid you think you'll get as snow. apply a ratio (i think 13:1 for you). And make a forecast. I'll probably rip and read Euro QPF at 12z tomorrow. Tweak a little. It's really good that the Euro is King at QPF. Cause it's super wet.
  6. balltermen
    This is 10:1 Canadian through 15z sunday
  7. balltermen
    it flips in DC around 15z probably, but it dumps prodigious amounts of snow before then. around 10"
  8. balltermen
    I'm guessing rimed snow/sleet is like 5:1 and barely sleet like 2:1?
  9. balltermen
    a million. You never think a warm nose can find a way through. But it does. That said, the NAM is also wrong a lot and I think it is probably early with the flip time
  10. balltermen
    23/2 here near Braddock Road metro. Just saw the 3k NAM. 5" snow followed by 3" sleet. Would still be quite the storm. You can't toss it unfortunately. Too many times we've seen mid level warm air punch its way well north and west than the globals suggested at 36 hours out.
  11. balltermen
    yep. i totally screwed up. flip is at 16z-ish as you say. would be 8-10" -ish
  12. balltermen
    i see around 0.85" through 18z which is a foot at 14:1 ratios. Not predicting this but holding on to snow for an extra 3 hours could mean another 4-5". The difference between a 9am and 2pm flip is significant as to totals and impact. ETA - i was on wrong panel. flip at 16z. 8-10" snow for DC.
  13. balltermen
    Wow. Flip isn't until 18-19z. DC gets 12" of snow and then maybe 1" sleet. Is this even possible. Not biting. ETA - I was on wrong panel. flip at 16z-ish.
  14. balltermen
    every hour delayed gets DC another inch. This run could be 16z flip. But even with a 15z flip, DC gets a solid 7-8" snow and then 3" of sleet. yikes.
  15. balltermen
    The GFS has trouble with east coast snowstorms. especially with a tricky northern stream Some people have drawn similarities to 2/12/14. The GFS wasn't on board until like 12 hours out. Which is to say. i think its too cold
  16. balltermen
    more like 10-12" using liquid for immediate DC metro. we get dry slotted a bit .7 at 12:1 .7 at 3:1
  17. balltermen
    soundings maybe imply snow until 14-15z. it's after that that the nose goes full pinocchio. I think it's too warm. But if models trend toward an 8-9 am flip it's a 4-6" snow and then maybe 2-3" sleet. I figure a blended ratio of 12:1 for the snow portion here. I think 6-10" incl sleet is still the right forecast for now.
  18. balltermen
    It's not good. Especially at this range. I would maybe use it closer in, in conjunction with other models. But weigh it very little and toss if an outlier.
  19. balltermen
    Thanks. Still snow. I'm not going to use the Euro for thermals tomorrow. That's for hi rez mesos, but it's nice to know where the globals stand. DC really needs to protect itself against flipping before 9-10 am. I think the goal is 6" before the flip. A nice solid bed.
  20. balltermen
    The cutoff line for flip shouldn't be as severe as 2/12/14 when a few miles and a couple hundred feet bought you an extra 2 hours of snow. But the timing matters a lot of course. I could see Columbia get 10"+ snow.
  21. balltermen
    I don't think the forecast is terribly complicated for inside the DC beltway. Just a matter of settling on a range My temptation is to go 6-10" for DC incl sleet. This would imply 5-8" snow. But snow could be too low. All the globals give DC 6"+ using 12:1 ratios for the snow portion
  22. balltermen
    That's what i was wondering. Whether precip falling into a shallow warm nose, would change back to sleet when it hits those absurdly cold temps below 800 mb I think the deemphasis on ice here is probably the move for now. 50 miles south? that's a different story
  23. balltermen
    Euro is marginally colder, but within the moe for noise. I'd love to see Pivotal soundings for 16-17z Sunday. @yoda?
  24. balltermen
    Snow through 15z for DC and southern burbs since they will flip earlier - hopefully after 10 am but...
  25. balltermen
    this is near Leesburg
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