balltermen
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Everything posted by balltermen
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It's marginal. For DC and southern burbs, I'm going with 16z flip to hedge against the scary models. I have a feeling that will be about right. We'll know tomorrow. I don't foresee a situation where models have settled on say a noon flip and we go to sleet at 8 am.
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For DC and South - precip after hypo 10 am flip
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yes
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it's good to have them incrementally given the changeover. otherwise i'd agree
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18z sunday for those lucky enough to make it there without the dreaded ping. probably north of 66, west of beltway has chance. DC and SE aren't quite making it. I'd take 11 am tbh
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looks more progressive and flatter which is good.
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yeah. not sure why I posted 18z Monday. I think meant to do 18z sunday.
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it looks kinda ugly. flip is around 17z maybe for DC.
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yeah. I'm not as apt to bite on that. I figure 12:1 is a conservative blend until we flip. then around 3:1.
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YMMV, but i think it makes sense to forecast snow amounts as "including" sleet since it's included anyway. 6-10" (including sleet) is better than 5-8" of snow. and then 1-2" of sleet
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yeah. even assuming 12:1, that's a good hit. I'm going with noon flip for DC for now. seems about the right time for the infamous sound of pinging
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this is for SE of 95. if we flip on the early side
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there's no real wraparound. we just get dry slotted. If GFS is right, Loudoun will get a lot of snow.
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GFS is about 8-9" for DC before the flip which is about 2-ish? we're hodl'ing at 18z.
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La Niña creates tricky storms. I don't think it's bad to keep in mind the ENSO phase when forecasting discrete events. Though we've had such a strong northern branch the last decade, we're all familiar with these setups.
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it's very wet. Luge time
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the warm layer is around 750mb. if it's shallow enough and we have rates maybe many will hold on to snow longer.
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there's really no reason to use a low res meso model outside of its range for granularity. But it is a red flag. fortunately the 3k is a bit colder
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i think the non-weenie move is to go with the earliest flip time if it's not a major outlier. and then maybe some people get lucky. mid morning? for DC
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3K is clean when it truncates
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thx. I've missed a lot of posts. he would be the man who knows.
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tomorrow check the model page. for big events they'll often run the firewx (1.33km) NAM over a certain area. https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php
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I was hoping the 1.33k NAM was being run over the Mid Atl tonight. maybe tomorrow 12z or 0z? ETA - we're too far out. maybe tomorrow.
