psuhoffman

I will put my full bias on the table...2009 is my top analog and it was by far my least favorite winter EVER. Because it was generally cold for long stretches, at least a cold enough pattern to snow...and it did snow a decent amount just to our north, so I was tracking and invested and watching every freaking wave, and almost nothing came of any of them. Yea I got slightly more snow that winter than a few others (but other than a bunch of 1" evens it was all from one March storm), but those years the pattern was no hope awful and I just checked out, 2009 was the biggest waste of my time for little return of any winter.

How this next couple weeks plays out I think is very important for hints at the winter. I know some will be tempted to say "it's early so its ok that these storms are not working out" but that is not necessarily true... It's one thing if the boundary is a little too warm maybe in the UHI but the storm took a good track and 2-3 degrees colder at the surface would have been a big snow...that is the type of thing that an early miss is not a bad thing and can be indicative of a good pattern. But when I saw the 6z GFS run the thought I had is...and that is exactly how all those horrible snowfall analogs I had in my set managed to have decent looking H5 patterns and produce no snow. A NS wave goes just to our north, it gets uber cold but a southern slider gets shunted south then phases too late and hits new england... another NS wave goes just north...gets cold but no STJ at the end then a NS wave goes north again. You look at the mean pattern for the whole period and it looked great and we got no snow to show for it! A little ice maybe. But I do think this first period of "winter pattern" will tip the hat for the winter some. If one of these waves can actually flush hit our area I will start to think maybe the 2014 analog idea has merit but if we go through a period where its generally chilly but NS waves manage to go just north and STJ waves get suppressed well...thats exactly what all the analogs say will happen all winter long.

Sorry I was I wrong thread. @brooklynwx99Wrt 2014, we will know very soon. 2014 tipped its cap very early. As soon as the first cold period hit those waves started to target south of 40 which is very unusual. If in the next few weeks one of these waves actually flush hits somewhere south of 40 my radar will be up. But if they all end up sliding by frustratingly close but to our north…well that’s how those other colder -enso years went.

I’ve been up there for a few events similar to this one. It won’t disappoint.

Last couple years gfs started to improve on synoptic placements around 150 hours. It was by no means perfect inside 150 but it started to have more runs that were at least closer to the final outcome. So we’re getting close to when it might start to narrow the goalposts. Have to see how the new euro behaves.

If you look at a cold enso snowfall anomaly map, there is a clear and obvious minimum right over us. It’s drastic with a sharp gradient around 40n and through south central VA up the immediate coast. You would be tempted to think it’s just a fluke but it’s not. It’s both logical and consistent. NS dominant systems race by just to our north. Durinh cold periods southern sliders can’t phase or lift north because of the NS racing vorts across to the north so they miss south. Sometimes they phase late and hit the coast east of the bay. But east of the mountains from Richmond to Baltimore to the bay is screwed. 2014 was an exception because the pattern went to extremes. There was a ridge over the top of the pole at times that displaced the TPV enough to really suppress the NS. Enough that waves that almost always go north dug south of us. There was also more STJ interaction than is common. It was just an example of what can happen of things go to super extremes. But it was probably a once a century outcome for a cold enso, -pdo, +QBO winter. Just like 1996 was a once a century outcome for a Nina but for different reasons. Extremely +PDO pattern which is uncommon. The Nina never coupled. But even for a -QBO +PDO Nina it was extreme. That rare subset is better than most Nina’s but other examples like 2006 didn’t go to that extreme. They were better than most Nina’s but not 1996. Sometimes we get an extreme outcome that isn’t common and not likely to repeat even from similar parameters. I put 1996 and 2014 in that category.

2010 is not an analog, 2008-09 is a good analog. When I use a single year to describe a winter I mean the Jan/Feb year. Sorry for the confusion.

Might be a little lower after last year! Not sure how much those type indicators work anymore given the changes... but once we get to the second half of november in general yes snow in the area is a good thing v an endless blowtorch.

Thanks for that. I would really want to see that getting down closer to -1 though. -2 is still pretty bad and it was trending down again mid month! In 2013 we were getting closer to neutral by now.

@mattie g @brooklynwx99 some evidence to what I'm talking about...these are some of the other very similar fall seasons to where we are now...that I have seen being throw around in the analog set as "colder, snowier" options...along with 2014. And the pattern those years produced looks like that twitter profile Webb posted also. That looks pretty good doesn't it...but all 5 of those years were below average snowfall in the mid atlantic, and I don't mean just below...most were single digit snowfall except 1955 but you have to adjust that year for warming since the 50's. But the point is all the other years similar to 2014 that lead to a somewhat similar pattern...didn't result in snowy winters around here. They were mostly really frustrating winters with a ton of snow just to our north and us constantly just south of the boundary on NS dominant systems. So was 2014 really a good setup, or did we just get lucky that year? What made 2014 good when every other example of a similar setup failed? I'm not smart enough to say, but I'm also not willing to bet on a repeat of the one example of this type of setup in the fall leading to high snowfall. I am not 100% sure of this, that's why I'm discussing it. I'm intrigued by this dichotomy...I really do wish I could figure out why 2014 went one way and all the other analogs another. But I am seeing too many people lumping them all together and for just north of us they were similar...but for us they were all bad except 2014.

yes, I said EVERY OTHER analog year except 2014 was a horrible snowfall winter... read my last post to brooklyn...I think 2014 might have just been a fluke of luck or due to a combination of variables we dont yet know how to factor, because none of the other similar years going all the way back to 1950 produced anything close to that result for us. Even the other analogs that were cold and snowy just to our north like 2001, 2009, 2013 and 2021 were low snowfall here.

Sometimes, but 2008 had almost the same pattern from Nov 15-Dec 10 and 2008-09 was a god awful snowfall year. I think 2012-13 which was my top analog was similar...and another year with single digit snowfall across our area and less than 5" in DC. Was 2014 really indicative of the drivers being good that winter or just a fluke? I can't find any other examples going back to 1950 of a weak cold enso or cold neutral +QBO winter coming off a -PDO that ended up snowy around here. Not a single one. All the other comps, 1951, 1955, 1972, 1975, 2002, 2009, 2012, 2013, 2021, 2022, 2023 were below average snowfall here. That is a big enough sample size to wonder if 2014 was just a fluke where even if the same major factors repeated again and again its unlikely to result in the same output and it was due to some combination of discreet variables we can't accurately factor in currently that lead to that...or just a lot of luck with several synoptic systems. That can happen...maybe we just hit the lottery in terms of lucking out synoptically. Because even the examples of similar cold winters with those parameters or even smaller scale periods within winters....didn't prodice nearly as much snowfall here. They did to our north...and they were generally cold patterns...but usually the baroclinic zone for storms ended up just to our north....or the patters were dry with systems redeveloping just north of us and hitting Philly northeast. It makes it hard for me to use 2014, it was not the typical way we get a snowy winter down here.

@brooklynwx99I hear and respect all these arguments... and I really hope they are right. I did say the one weakness of my new methodology was years where the PDO phase flipped unexpectedly going into a winter...those years showed significantly less predictability with my method using backwards verification tests. So if this year is indeed an example of a PDO phase flip then I could very well be very wrong.

I totally agree, but both of those winters were awful in DC/Baltimore and featured much below normal snowfall, in line with my thinking. They were both in my analog set. That is the thing...I think people just a little north of us don't realize that you can play around with all the details, and they matter for places just to our north...there is a HUGE gradient in nina snowfall just north of us...and somethings south enough to barely save me like 2021 where I got 50" and DC got single digits! But for DC/Baltimore...other than 2014 all these analog years were awful. Even the colder ones, the snow was north of us.

If I get any accumulation at all I will be excited.

This was exactly my thinking

My thinking on that...but I am totally open to discussion and being convinced maybe it's just a fluke...but perhaps 2022 was slightly snowier here than 2009 and 2013 because when the pattern was "favorable" the TPV was slightly more displaced in 2022 than the +QBO years like 2009...(or years where the QBO was flipping positive like 2013). But the truth is even if we go back to 1950 and include every similar enso year that happened during a deeply -PDO, years like 1951, 1955, 1972, 2002, 2012, 2021, 2023.... NONE of them was snowy. Not a single one was above avg snowfall at BWI! NONE So really the only hope we have here is that the buzz around 2014 is correct. But that year was totally eliminated for me because we were in a pdo phase change that year...by fall the PDO was down to near -1 and by January it was near neutral and by spring we had entered a prolonged positive PDO phase. So since my number one criteria was to only use analogs in a similarly god awful PDO phase...that year is not even an option in my analogs. Maybe that was a mistake? Or maybe the PDO goes through one of the fastest phase flips ever and somehow goes from -3.5 in the fall to near neutral by winter...but I ranked that possibility very low. But again...I'm open to being convinced that decision was a mistake. There seems to be a lot of buzz to that effect lately.

It's a good enso/solar analog, but not in any of the other metrics I looked at. But that is why I am asking this...maybe I am weighting things people think don't actually matter.

Honest question... I really do wonder what you or anyone else's take on this is. I do see these posts from some VERY knowledgeable experts and I certainly see the pattern coming up...and I want to be hopeful...but almost all the analogs they are using to justify the optimism are based on years where the QBO was totally opposite of this year. There are no examples of a snowy winter with a similar enso/QBO/PDO combo as we are in right now. None! So I guess my question is...am I missing something? It is a small sample...maybe the QBO isn't as important in this equation as I am making it. I do lean towards this not being a blowtorch wall to wall...some of my top analogs were decently cold winters...but not snowy at all. Example 2008-9 is a top analog. And look at the pattern late Nov to early Dec that winter...but it didn't help us at all, it was a horrible snowfall year here. Thoughts?

Just an FYI, if you chase to snowshoe WV you really have to stay at the top of the mountain (where the resort actually is anyways) to get the best snow in marginal situations. There are some lodges and motels at the bottom but they often get drastically less snow in these situations. I've even seen situations where the resort at the top gets 12"+ and there is nothing at the bottom. If you are looking for an area that is more uniform wrt snowfall across the area the Canaan Valley up to Davis area gets pretty good snow across the area and it's more uniform since there is a plateau across that area with relatively high elevations. But the top of snowshoe could very well get the most of anywhere in these type of setups.

Maybe, and it's true that some years we get a blockbuster team that runs the table all season as an elite looking squad, gets a top seed and wins the SB. But the other half of the time we get a team like the Ravens this year that have upside potential and don't hit that potential until the playoffs. I think the ravens do have the potential to win a SB if they get it together at the right time. I do think it's fair right now if we were creating tiers to put them in a second tier based on results...but when discussing what teams have the talent to win 3 or 4 consecutive games v good teams to win a SB the ravens do belong in that conversation. They have the talent to do it if they go on a run.

Who do you think are the legit super bowl contenders.... I have in no particular order... KC, Buffalo, Baltimore, Detroit, Philly I think I have to now add Pittsburg to the list...they are better than I thought.

lol sorry I wasn’t picking on you’re forecast or your point. I was more just LOLng at the fact the mid Atlantic is screwed no matter what. Even the colder “snowier” weak Nina +QBO seasons were god awful down here. It does matter for places north of 40.

Look at the results v the Eagles defense since week 4. They've done this to everyone they play. They struggled early in the season when they were implementing a new system and breaking in a couple rookies and several other new starters. They also were missing one of their starting corners. Since week 4 they have shut down everyone they play. Not sure I would be that down on their offense based solely on their performance v one of the best defenses in the league.

Appreciate the thoughts. For the record DC had 3.2" in 2002 and 3.4" in 2017 lol