psuhoffman

I only analyzes one gefs run. On that one run 24 hours ago there did not seem to be any discernible correlation between the amplitude of the Monday wave and the Wed wave. But things can change. If they become less spaced the odds they impact each other increases. Also of Monday crosses a critical threshold and is amplified “enough” it would have to impact the next wave. Ill take a look at the 12z guidance to see if there is a more obvious correlation now.

It’s a noise level (at that range) adjustment either way from being all snow or a lot of tears in DC. That’s how we roll.

In fairness to nws CTP State College caught the NE fringe and got super high ratios. It wasn’t like forecasts were 100 miles off with that storm. But getting the edges right is always tough.

Ratios!

Hybrid imo. Definitely not Miller A but there is some stj play and the initial system coming from our west isn’t purely northern stream. Maybe I’ll add something on A/B/hybrid to the snow climo thread later since this keeps coming up.

Gefs looked much better than the op

Especially NW of 95...

How come all the other guidance they continue to release faster but the euro stays 1am. The gap is crazy now. At least years ago we had the ggem/gefs and various other “guidance of the hour” crap coming out between the Gfs and euro. Now everything else is done by 11:45 and it’s a crazy wait. ETA: I am not waiting up. If I happen to wake up fine otherwise it will look the same at 7am as it does at 1am

UKMET???

You really think you’re going to change his mind

We should have a cage match between @Ji and @DTWXRISK to settle this.

Gefs

I just had an idea...

You reaping by zoom?

Precip updated. Gefs is a significant improvement over 18/12z. I could tell from the h5 and slp.

The TPV pulls west and the next trough dives in too far west so even with a -AO/NAO that’s not so good unless it’s 2010 level blocking. But the guidance was doing that for this week not long ago and you were whining that the storms were tracking now were cutters. So...

You love posting the panel right after the one we need

I like the look to the slp on the gefs.

Yea the better runs have a lot more stj involvement. There was almost none this run.

Imo the issue on the GFS...it’s fine through 120 then then it transfers but instead of amplifying and pulling the upper feature in the coastal escapes and the upper level support washes out. The storm never really amplified even to our northeast. Put simply it flubs the handoff.

I doubt we should expect the Gfs to handle that perfectly at this range anyways. It’s trending better with the things that matter most. I agree.

My bad. 12z. Didn’t realize because I had never looked at it. That should tell you what I think of it.

He was talking about Jan 1996

One of the oddities of that storm was how the pacific and the blocking played off each other. Like I said earlier everything depends on so many variables. The pac was a mess. Deep Trough in AK and crashing into the west coast. Normally anything would have cut. But there was the most ridiculous block, centered right near Baffin with a ginormous 50/50 stuck under it at the same time. So all it did was take all the Nino STJ and direct it straight up into a massive wall of confluence. Take away the Uber blocking and that pac configuration wouldn’t work. Put a pna ridge and that confluence probably suppresses anything that has to develop with a further east trough axis. That was a combination of factors that only worked in conjunction with each other.