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psuhoffman

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  1. psuhoffman
    Northwest crew...if we get the further south solution it’s ok. We get higher ratios and stay snow more of the event (maybe even all of it in terms of when there is meaningful heavy precip). And it gives more cushion for the inevitable north trend at the end. Nothing is showing us fringed up here. Worrying about the exact placement of a meso band within the precip shield on globals at 48 hours is useless. Plus they never pick up on the oragraphics enhances banding that sets up in the typical places.
  2. psuhoffman
    No we didn’t. A lot of that qpf from 0z was last nights. We lost maybe .2 qpf because we get stuck between meso bands. But that’s totally meaningless on a global from this range. None of them can accurately place those meso bands. It was fine Imo.
  3. psuhoffman
    A lot of that 0z qpf was from last night
  4. psuhoffman
    Unless we want DC to get screwed again our path up here is to get better ratios and score a few inches from the Thursday morning wave then tack on another round with the second wave. If we Jack from wave 1 Thursday morning it means DC got another screw job because the second wave will be north of the first.
  5. psuhoffman
    Yes but the NAM is so far north with the initial WAA wave for the same reason it doesn’t even have the second wave. It blasts the mid level warm layer through and dry slots everyone and storm over. No second band because it wrecks the mid levels. But in that case we get the first band. But I think the NAM is likely going haywire post 36 hours. Some of the other high res models like the ARW and NMB have come around fully to the globals progression.
  6. psuhoffman
    Lift induced by the coastal wave along the Arctic boundary that is stalled along the east coast.
  7. psuhoffman
    @high risk one last thing. Luckily there seems to be some synergy between the two bands. If the initial wave is south so is the second and Vice verse. So that seems to mitigate a total fail scenario.
  8. psuhoffman
    That idea of a second period of snow later Thursday is across most guidance now. Rgem and some of the other high res models have it and so does the euro. Except the danger is if that ends up north and mix then places north of DC/Balt could be a screw zone between heavy bands of snow. On the other hand if we get in on the northern side of the morning band and get that secondary banding later we end up the Jack.
  9. psuhoffman
    Stayed freezing rain all night. Temp spiked to 38 now though. Luckily still cloudy. Hopefully that holds. So far haven’t lost any snow. This was one of the rare events were literally at the bottom of my ridge where @HighStakes lives had no ice on anything this morning when I dropped my son at school (which I can see in the valley from my back yard) but everything was still caked in ice up here.
  10. psuhoffman
    @Maestrobjwa maybe but also keep in mind 4.8” of snow followed by a crap ton of sleet and freezing rain is still a warning event AND and extremely high impact event. More so then an 8” snowstorm. It’s not the same as the 4.8” of 33 degree slop that chances to rain kind of events we’ve become accustomed too in the 95 corridor.
  11. psuhoffman
    NW of about a leesburg to Westminster line stays all snow this run.
  12. psuhoffman
    My first impressions are again better confluence and the storm seems south/weaker but also less thump so less dynamic cooling to help mix our warm layers so it might be a wash. Seems dryer and slower again.
  13. psuhoffman
    NEXT time someone starts a thread premature no mercy
  14. psuhoffman
    Don’t worry on the whole this forum is an excellent place to practice scientific methodology and analysis...and if this storm fails you will have to be sacrificed to appease the gods.
  15. psuhoffman
    I hope it wasn’t too late. If the snow gods saw that it may never snow again.
  16. psuhoffman
    You forgot to tell us its progressive In this case it’s actually a cutter lol Uh oh huge red flag!!!!!
  17. psuhoffman
    Navgem looks awful I’m out.
  18. psuhoffman
    100%. Come on man There is a 100% chance the gefs thinks there is a 100% chance. I’m holding out until it shows at least 110%
  19. psuhoffman
    Gefs Probably of 6”
  20. psuhoffman
    Something just fell on my roof. Doesn’t seem to be any damage. But there are lots of not cool noises outside right now. Lost a huge pine tree 2 years ago in an ice storm. I’m definitely not down with ice storms. Not worth it.
  21. psuhoffman
    31 pouring freezing rain. Something fell on my roof just had to go check it out. Seems to be ok. Lot of ice on everything.
  22. psuhoffman
    That doesn’t capture the whole storm. For some it’s still snowing after.
  23. psuhoffman
    There are some places in Ohio that went from being rain to being too far NW to get any precip in the last 36 hours.
  24. psuhoffman
    Yea that was the January one. Was the February storm snow/sleet mix up here? Was all sleet in northern VA.
  25. psuhoffman
    Which storm was that? The January or the February one?
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