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psuhoffman

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Everything posted by psuhoffman

  1. psuhoffman
    There’s an amped signal for a guaranteed vodka pac puke base state regime…….climate change
  2. psuhoffman
    Does it send a signal to your brain signaling the frustration due to the signal.
  3. psuhoffman
    I haven’t drilled down to that level.
  4. psuhoffman
    I know this is mostly a joke now…but just throwing this out there, while the numbers are compelling that snow in the colder parts of our region early is a good sign…it is, it’s also worth pointing out that the only 2 exceptions in the 75 years I looked at where our area got a snowy winter after not having an inch of snow here until after Xmas we’re both high analogs to this winter. 1987 and 1966. On top of that when I ran the numbers for only ninos the snow mean falls more slowly than in all years. That said early is still better. Early opens up the best analogs like 1958, 1964, 2003, 2010.
  5. psuhoffman
  6. psuhoffman
    I saw, might head to Okemo instead. And no its not "worth it" just to ski but I have new equipment and I might have to make custom modifications but I want to test everything out and see and not waste time on a legit ski weekend doing that.
  7. psuhoffman
    We could solve this problem right now... I've always wanted a snowmaking machine... someone wants to donate...I could have a few inches on my lawn the next below freezing night!
  8. psuhoffman
    BWI: 42" DCA: 32" IAD: 43" RIC: 20" LYC: 31"
  9. psuhoffman
    This is EXACTLY the timeframe when we want to see this too, historically the end of November is when we saw the longwave pattern shift into a canonical Nino look in those best years that show up in the analogs. Doesn't mean we run straight through winter like this...the pattern will ebb and flow...there will be some reloads and temporary torches mixed in, Ji will definitely cancel winter a few times even after we get our first HECS (see 2010) but usually if the winter is going to be really good we start to see hints of it right about now.
  10. psuhoffman
    He said moderate Nino's. 2018 was weak (especially if you factor in the current PDO cycle muting enso which in that case muted the weak nino into behaving like a neutral winter in a -PDO regime) 2015 was a super nino 2014 was weak.
  11. psuhoffman
    I do think the odds of a big hit are increased this year...but it's unlikely to be a one hit wonder like 1983 or 2016. This is not behaving like a super nino. I am hesitant to drill down too much into details though, snow can be a bit fluky to begin with... but my expectation is several snow events with 1 or 2 being significant. We can get to my numbers either though getting lucky with a couple extra moderate hits...or one of the hits being a HECS level event. Either is acceptable. I could also bust high if we get unlucky and none reach max potential and we have a few close misses.
  12. psuhoffman
    65-66 would have been very high on my list had I included older data. As it was I felt I had enough to get the gist without needing to go way back. Including 1958 and 1966 wouldn’t have changed the forecast significantly.
  13. psuhoffman
    It makes a huge difference in marginal events. What general area are you? I’m just northwest of town on top of Dug Hill Ridge.
  14. psuhoffman
    I definitely am worried about the pac base state. And you may be right about a muted in between result. But I guess I went all or nothing. What my data indicated is either the Nino is able to initiate the longwave pattern we need and it’s a blockbuster year or it fails to and it’s a lame below avg year. But the better analogs skewed in favor of a blockbuster. There are exceptions like 2019 but it really did fail to initiate a favorable pattern and DC just got incredibly lucky that one fairly odd weak storm in a mediocre pattern maxed out for them. If we replay that winter 10 times I bet it ends up below avg snow 7/10 times. I did adjust the averages down about 10% to account for warming. The reason I didn’t go further was if you stratify the seasonal data by enso state, nino is the one category where we’ve seen no statistical regression in our snowfall. So far a true Nino pattern has been the one thing impervious to warming’s negative impact on snowfall. I suspect so far the increase in available moisture and baroclinic instability are offsetting the warming given a perfect storm track and the Nino longwave pattern muting the Pacs ability to flood in a puke airmass. That’s probably living on borrowed time but Im gambling we haven’t reached the cliff yet.
  15. psuhoffman
    Except you would be excluding the best analog from a set of 4. Also if you remove 2010 and 2005 the avg at DCA is 35” so it fails to really alter the equation. Lastly…is 2010 really the outlier or is 2005? 1987,2003,2010 all have more in common than 2005. And imo 2005 underperformed. Almost every threat that winter failed to meet its potential. This is all preference. Nothing wrong with your method just defending why I didn’t go that route.
  16. psuhoffman
    Bottom line…it’s one thing if it’s a little too warm and the 95 corridor isn’t getting snow early, but it’s not a good sign if the whole region is torching with no snow anywhere in the area until late into the cold season. That’s the only point I was trying to make.
  17. psuhoffman
    I shouldnt have used my location. I’ll never hear the end of it now, deservedly so! But that wasn’t my point, as you know.
  18. psuhoffman
    Nina v Nino. The euro was atrocious last winter wrt synoptic details in our domain. But that might not apply to this winter with a different pattern.
  19. psuhoffman
    Whose complaining? I just posted snowfall probability statistics based on when the first inch falls here.
  20. psuhoffman
    My data goes back to 2006. I found two reliable coop sites that go back to the 1950s.
  21. psuhoffman
    If I went back further 1958 and 1966 would be in my analogs.
  22. psuhoffman
    Yea the basic lack of climo factored into those maps is comical...but on the science side I am also not sure about the consensus of hedging towards slightly above normal snowfall. When I compiled all the analogs...actually there were some duds, like one season near to slightly above normal depending on location, and the rest were way way way above normal snow years. The analogs suggest the most likely outcome this year is actually a blockbuster 40" type winter or a dud. By dud I don't mean no snow at all like last year but a dud by Nino standards, meaning well below normal snowfall. 1992, 1995, 2007 types.
  23. psuhoffman
    Everyone assumes I am pessimistic and usually go low. But the truth is I simply post a lot of snowfall data, and because our snowfall data has been so awful lately it makes me look like I hate on snow...but its just the numbers. And...I've been wrong 4 times in the last 13 years with my seasonal guess, and 3/4 if was because I predicted too much snow.
  24. psuhoffman
    I took the average of my analogs and adjusted down slightly to account for warming. The numbers are what they are.
  25. psuhoffman
    It's snowed twice up here so far...but ground temps were well above freezing both times. The first the most we ever got was a slight whitening of the ground during one heavy burst. The second no accumulation at all.
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