psuhoffman
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Everything posted by psuhoffman
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Terpeast was transparent with his methodology and the limitations. It’s very valid to point out that the entire storm track could be altered. But it’s impossible to assess that through data analysis. We would need a very sophisticated simulation. However I would argue it’s highly unlikely such changes would end up being a net positive simply because the net impact of warming overall would be to adjust everything north on the whole and average snow decreases as you go south of us.
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I suspected that Feb 66 storm would be a loss. Wasn’t the Feb 87 also a complete loss? If so it’s slightly disturbing that 2 of the biggest snows in 2 of the best analogs would be rain now! That does make me nervous given my ambitious forecast. But I also figured maybe other storms end up compensating. Of course it has to be cold enough at some point for that to work lol. But this highlights my biggest fear. That historically our snowiest patterns often weren’t really that cold. Cold smoke 8”+ snowstorms are not very common. As we continue to warm we’re flirting with disaster because we don’t have much margin left for what is our best snowfall producing long wave patterns to still be viable in DC. ETA: yes some storms under the right conditions will get enhanced but over time they would become fewer and further between until it’s almost irrelevant that once every very long while we get some crazy blizzard. That’s like NC used to be. Every so often they get some big snow but who cares they would go years between any significant snow. No self respecting snow weenie would live there.
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I'll be ready
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Let’s all meet at a condo in Canaan Valley!
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I agree and I went big in my snowfall forecast but to play devils advocate the 1966 could be a risky repeat. A significant portion of the January snow was from a triple phased storm. All of the Feb snow was from a very marginal storm where temps were near freezing. Would that even work anymore. Take away that huge January storm and if the Feb storm is a mixed mess v snow and that season wasn’t that good anymore.
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Everyone keeps saying this but it's not true. The following stats are for snowfall in all El nino years since 1950. 26 years. BWI had at least 4" of snow before January 1 in the following el nino years... 1951, 1952, 1953, 1957, 1963, 1968, 1969, 1982, 1987, 2002, 2009 So roughly 42% of el nino winters had significant snow (4") in November/December. There have been 48 non el nino years since 1950. In those years BWI had 4" of snow by January 1 in only 13 years or 27%. Baltimore is significantly more likely to get snowfall early in El Nino's than in neutral and nina seasons. Additionally... Avg Nino snowfall in years BWI gets 4" by Jan 1 = 34" Avg Nino snowfall in years BWI does not get 4" by Jan 1 = 17" Why does everyone keep saying Decembers always suck in a nino. They suck in SOME Nino's...and guess what those usually end up being the crappy nino's. yes SOME are years like 1966 and 1987 that flip around New Years. But there are more examples like 1959, 1973, 1992, 1995, 1998, 2007 where a bad early season went on to be a dud nino season. I am not expecting that this year...but I get annoyed everytime I see this assertion that we just toss December in a nino when that data does not support that at all. Actually Nino's have a higher probability of early snow than non ninos.
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so if the traditional warm phases are warm, and the cold phases are also warm...what MJO phases are cold signals in Dec/Jan for cold in a nino?
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So let me get this straight...according to him the traditional warm phases 3-6 are warm, but in an el nino the cold phases 8-1-2 are also warm? SO WTF is cold?
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It’s retrograding.
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By January it’s cold on guidance with a favorable pattern for snow. see how easy it was to say the same thing in a less negative way.
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The Eagles schemes, both on offense and defense, seem very simple. They have relied on simply being more talented for the last 2 years. On offense they run very simple route schemes and rely on their receivers simply winning their 1 on 1 matchups. On defense they tend to just rush 4 and rely on them getting home. Only twice in the last 2 seasons did they run into a situation where that wasn't going to work, and in both cases KC in the SB and SF this year...their defense got boat raced when they were completely unable to adapt at all and create a scheme advantage when simply winning on talent was not an option.
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@CAPE Just a thought for a rematch...if they are going to roll protection to Reddick, drop him into the LB zone and blitz the LB off the other side. Yes, that is not ideal normally since Reddick is much more affective as a pass rushing LB than in coverage, and you are taking your coverage LB and pass rushing...but frankly the Eagles don't have a great pass coverage option at LB and if they are going to double team Reddick whoever they have at Will LB won't be able to hold up long trying to cover the TE/RB/Slot WR anyways... so might as well blitz him.
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Agree about Brock. Early yesterday the Eagles were getting pressure and he was incapable of making plays. But then SF adjusted, starting giving help on Reddick, rolling the protections to his side, and suddenly SF could move the ball at will when he had 3 seconds to scan the field and make his reads unbothered by the rush. From what I saw in those 3 losses the biggest factor was when he is under pressure he becomes a very flawed player. The issue then is, how to get pressure. Yesterday SF managed to scheme the Eagles pass rush out of the game after the first two possessions.
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I know of injuries they had to 2 starters...Deebo and Trent right? I don't know of any others. Honestly... losing those 2 players is justification for losing 3 games to mediocre teams??? I mean... the Eagles haven't had all 22 of our starters all season. Most games we are missing 3 or 4 starters. Last week the Eagles were without their best tackle and TE. Yesterday they were without the starting FS, slot corner, coverage LB, and TE. 2 of them will be back soon, the other 2 are out for the season. But not once anywhere would anyone bring that up as the reason for our loss. It's football, you are rarely going to have all 22 healthy any given week. I honestly can't figure out SF. Maybe my perception of them is skewed because the only 3 games until yesterday that I actually watched their entire game was the 3 they lost...and I kinda threw them in the "they are not a threat" pile in my head after seeing them look like ass 3 weeks in a row. And yes I heard "the injuries" but again my thought was if losing 2 players affects you that much...that is indicative of something wrong. Obviously I was wrong...they played at a level I was not expecting yesterday. The eagles didn't make a ton of mistakes they just got dominated. That was frustrating. But unless there were more injuries that I am aware of I don't fully buy that as an excuse.
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All that may be true, I have not watched a single play, but what you just said there is exactly why I don't watch. They won every game, so I don't care about any of that. The results on the field should be all that matters. If things like "what the fans want to see, what the better game would be, who is hypothetically the better team" are more important that the actual results of games...then I choose not to care about that sport.
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SF did lose 3 games this year right? Why are most Ravens fans chalking that up as a loss?
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Something worth considering... the last time we had a nino in 20180-19 all the guidance teased us all season with a canonical nino look that was always just beyond day 10. Sometimes it would be way out at day 15, sometimes it would make it all the way to day 10 or so before evaporating...but it never came. The pacific remained stubbornly hostile and resistant to coupling with enso. I am NOT predicting that again, this time the nino is strong v weak. But it's worth noting that...we want to see this move forward in time. If we start to see the same thing happening I will definitely be aware of the lessons of that last el nino during this current PDO cycle.
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I'm gonna need you to beat SF for me though
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Deep down I kind of expected the result. Obviously disappointing, but the way they were playing recently heading into this game, combined with the accumulation of tough games and SF being on extended rest made this outcome likely. My only question now is whether the Eagles have the capability to get back to playing the way they did last season. They still have most of the same parts...so obviously that next level is in there somewhere, but recently they have been playing pretty mediocre football overall and getting by on making key plays in big moments. It's possible its mental, the accumulated affect of being on top for so long and feeling "we just have to get back to the super bowl". I think that is one of the reasons the super bowl losing team typically has a down year the next season, its hard to mentally focus on each game the way you have to when your goal is to make up for losing the super bowl which is impossible to do week to week. Maybe this game serves to re-focus them and they get back to playing to their potential. Or maybe they just can't flip that switch this season. We will see this week. The cowboys are very good...but they are not on the same level as the 49ers or the Eagles if they play to their potential. If the eagles come out and soundly beat Dallas maybe this loss was needed. If they lose to Dallas, then its time to accept they just aren't capable of hitting the same level they were at last season.
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They WON every game they played. When subjective perception becomes more important than the actual results of games...well that is why I don't care and have not cared about college football in a very long time.
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Fixed
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There are significant differences in the central pacific from that composite. I’m not backing down from my winter prediction. We have Ninaesque forcing right now. I highly doubt that persists all winter. My comment wasn’t a prediction. But…if we do end up with Nina forcing for the majority of the winter despite a strong nino because of what is likely a somewhat permanent artifact of warming…well that would be up there with stealing Jobu’s rum…in the words of Perdro Cerrano “very very bad”.
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I brought this up in the main ENSO thread. That western pac and IO warm pool is theorized to be a permanent feature courtesy of warming. If so, and if a strong nino isn’t enough to offset, at least we know the party’s over.
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Lately it doesn’t snow much ever here… there was a time when it did snow some in December and that was when it tended to snow more overall also. Am I the only one who thinks those two facts are related. I said we’re not all gonna make it.
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What about the sun angle? And have you checked the soil temps?
