psuhoffman

Because we had a god damn perfect epo/pna pattern. Of course it can still get cold if everything is fucking perfect. We’re talking about losing snow along the margins. losing those snows we used to sneak in when the pattern wasn’t good.

Oh I agree but I stopped making this point because some agree and they get tired of hearing it because it’s depressing and the others won’t believe it and will cite examples of when it’s cold as evidence it’s not warming and it’a a waste of time arguing with them

ok jus saying you said you never seen it and I gave you an example. I’m not saying this is the most common thing or we want a +400 N pac ridge. Of course not. Just that we have snowed with this kind of setup before when there were extenuating circumstances to overcome the pac pattern

Yup. This is the past 12 months. It’s red everywhere on average. Thicknesses are increasing. This is just the reality. And since snow requires cold…

That was the loading pattern. The pacific anomalies are identical.

We’ve had snowstorms in warm patterns before. When it was 45 the day before and after. We don’t need it to be arctic cold to get a snowstorm in mid February.

Remember the colors are just representative of height anomalies but the anomalies are using past 30 year climo so in a warming environment they are behind the curve. In the past the heights would be lower in the ridge and so you wouldn’t see red linking to the ridge in Canada. Increase all the heights and…ridges link easier and yes this is a huge issue but I don’t talk about it anymore because it’s obviously related to the elephant that we can’t talk about without a handful of people trying to blow up the thread for political reasons.

This was a snowstorm @Stormchaserchuck1. I got 10”!

That pna doesn’t amplify and dig in it kicks out east. The next one does and that will pump a ridge in the east.

Lol that’s definitely one of my points. Also trying to get him to answer if he thinks the 2017 on period (which has been our worst stretch ever and by a large margin) is the new normal because he seems to be using this current total fail period as his baseline for what is normal. And if so our disagreement makes sense because all my examples of this pattern working are from before 2017

We’re still talking past each other Chuck. I’m saying we used to be able to snow without PNA help. We used to get some snowstorms with a hostile pacific. YES you’re right since 2016 that hadn’t been true. Lately when the pac is bad we got to absolute shit and torch so bad there is no hope. But I am saying historically that wasn’t true. Especially if you go back prior to like 2000! Bet there were some examples even up to 2015. But since…the last decade the pac has been impossible to overcome. When the pac is bad it torches us. I’m asking you if you think that’s just the new normal and getting snow despite a pad pac pattern is a thing of the past.

We pop a +400 ridge in the pad multiple times every damn winter now. You can’t hardly find any examples of that even in the absolute worst PDO winters in the past prior to 2000 so of course there are no examples.

There are some examples of +200-250 N pad ridges and snow…but a +250 ridge in 1960 is probably a +400 now! Heights are higher! So you won’t see that because a +400 ridge was unheard of in the past and would have been so anomalous for that period it would have dominated the pattern.

Omg we are talking past each other. Yes since 2017 -pna hasn’t worked. I’ve said that. But that’s one of the reasons since 2017 has been the worst 9 year snow drought in our history. You’re using the absolute worst 9 years EVER as your baseline! If that’s what you’re saying is normal we’re Fooked and I might as well find a new hobby. I’m saying I am assuming things go back to normal (or at least better than the last 9 years have been) at some point. Baltimore is only averaging 12” if snow since 2016! There are 2 reasons for that. 1) we’ve been in a hostile PDO pac regime. Past periods like this were low snow periods. But this one has been worse. Much worse! Why? Because we aren’t even getting the fluke occasions snows we used to get in a crap pacific pattern. You think that continues? You think 12” is what is normal in Baltimore now?

Most of our snowstorms with a hostile PNA were warm storms that were barely cold enough to snow with warm temps on either side of the storm. Lots of examples where it was 48 the day before and 47 the day after and like 55-60 within a few days either side. At least the Jan Feb ones. March we have more examples of colder regimes with a hostile PNA due to shorter wavelengths. But we have snowed in “warm” regimes before if we get a perfect storm track. Feb 1987 being the best example!

My kids don’t watch it! Have you watched some of the past shows? Or some of the stuff on MTV? I probably don’t want them seeing some of that no…but I don’t remember the outrage at this stuff that’s been going on for YEARS. It’s been like 20 years since the wardrobe malfunction and forget the mistake how bout the fact he was mock groping her which caused the malfunction. This is a lost cause and been this way a long time so why the sudden outrage now? I suspect I know why.

NAO is trending negative again toward the end of Feb. Pac ridge is becoming a WPO poleward ridge linking to the AO. Yea the pna sucks but in late Feb and March we should be able to overcome that. At least we have in the past. PNA is the most important index the first 1/3 of winter, equal with AO the middle 3rd, and dropped in importance once past Feb 15 in my snowstorm analysis.

Have you plotted them when there isn’t a strong PNA? A mean will miss anomalies or exceptions to a rule.

But you’re acting like we can’t snow with a shitty pacific. Early in the season the season that’s true. Back when I looked at every 5”+ Baltimore snow I did note there are almost no December or early Jan snows without PNA EPO help. None. But Feb and March have a ton of snows with a hostile EPO PNA. And in most of those it was a setup very similar to this. A split flow and The Atlantic helped suppress a pac wave that ejected from the southwest and it had to work with marginal pace puke air. None of them were cold storms. Some were storms where it was 50 the day before and after the storm and it snowed with temps of 33 degrees during the storm. But we had a ton of those storms. Now I have also noted there been extinct for a while now. And the last several examples of an attempt at these ended up perfect track rainstorms. One was that storm around the Super Bowl in 2023. These haven’t been working anymore. Lately the pacific puke air masses have been too warm to overcome even when a storm is suppressed under us. It’s just a 38 degree rainstorm. Maybe that’s the new reality. Maybe I’m stubborn and don’t want to admit this doesn’t work anymore because some of these storms were my favorites. Wet snow paste bombs in otherwise garbage patterns. Take a look at the Feb 1987 storm. The pac was utter garbage but the Atlantic forces that wave under us and we had a snowstorm with temps of like 32-34 degrees the whole storm! Also historically you can’t use the same heights the overall heights are much much higher now. A +250 ridge in 1960 would be a +400 now!

But what’s happening out in the central pacific hasn’t impacted the North America longwave pattern YET. It will. We are going to pay the price for that ridge out there eventually. The nao might mute it some but payment will come due. But what’s happening over N Amerca matters more. That ridge out there matters because it will cause the next pac trough to really dig and amplify into the west. THAT is what will jump a ridge in the east. There are steps. Because the antecedent pattern was good and there is some residual blocked nature to the N Amer flow the downstream impacts are delayed some, not as immediate as in recent years when things were already bad and that kind of ridge would torch is right quick. But there the location and depth of the trough our west is similar to the Hudson Bay high comp. Yes the central pacific ridge is different but they only matters once it causes the pna to tank imo.

But that comp would also show a massive -pna trough along the west coast. THAT is what causes the ridge in the east. It hasn’t happened YET there. It’s coming. A day later and then 2 days after that yes the east will ridge. Not every situation is the same. You’re ignoring that the central pacific ridge has not yet had the downstream impact on the pna that comes BEFORE what happens here. You’re just applying a general mean. Well if that was the case we might as well always say it won’t snow because snow is an anomaly not normal and not the likely outcome ever.

It’s not that different. I’m the comp the ridge is more in the wpo area but the downstream trough is very similar and that’s what’s more important. That north pac ridge has just gone up and hasn’t yet caused the deep -pna that will eventually wreck our pattern. I do think we see a warmer period than guidance is showing AFTER PD weekend. But you’re acting like that ridge goes up and immediately eastern US torches. First it needs to cause the PNA reaction then a couple days later we torch. There is a window first. We don’t have any arctic air to work with though it’s a split flow with marginal air so that’s the issue. The pacific hasn’t had time to impact us YET there. It will soon after. Then for how long before we recover becomes the next question and I agree with you probably by the very end of Feb.

Problem with that comp is there is no consistency. It includes some of our snowiest El Niños and some of the least snowy. The mean is just an average of radically different years. I don’t see a pattern that’s useful there. Could be 1964 or 1995 lol. Actually I think on the whole snowfall would be above avg in the subset

No no no. Nice try but you don’t get to own every permutation of fail. Of course it’s probably going to fail, almost all our threats fail because it’s hard to get a snowstorm here. Way more had to go right than wrong. You can’t say the problem is it’s going to be too warm then claim a win if the storm gets suppressed lol You might still win with the too warm idea anyways. Frankly every one of these Hudson high threats the last 10 years has ended up too warm. This look used to work. We’ve had so many awesome wet snow paste bombs in this type of pattern. But they’ve gone extinct and every recent example ended up rain. Does this work anymore? Because some of our best snows were in this comp but lately it’s been too warm for this setup to work

I mean like I said he isn’t my style BUT he’s been on the billboard top 20 artists list for the last few years and was even number 1 for a while last year and just won a ton of Grammys. So…these people acting like no one wanted this…either are unaware of the fact there are other demographics besides them that exist and watch the Super Bowl…or they are performing for reasons that will remain unsaid.