psuhoffman

Legit heavy snow

The kids made their first snowman of the season before going to bed

I’m on the first of those 2. Dug Hill ridge.

She thinks the magic sled worked https://imgur.com/a/ym1U9Ww#xlsIxX3 https://imgur.com/a/ym1U9Ww#o6BW4Dg

Very early. Snowing light. But it has the high ratio fluff look that accompanies most of the positive busts up here when a little bit of qpf can go a long way. If we just get .25 qpf it will be 4+ based on what I’m seeing.

My 7 year old just put out this little sled ornament she made at school and said maybe it’s magic and will make it snow. She has no idea…

It’s gone snow

It’s too meso scale for guidance to possibly get right. We wouldn’t even try to nail the exact location of a thunderstorm 60 hours out. This is the same thing.

My 11 year old son who is into engineering and science would probably listen and then start pulling up videos about it on his tablet. My 7 year old daughter would look at me and say "but my unicorn stuffy said it's going to snow" She is clearly the one on her way to a healthier, happier life.

I just want enough for my kids to be able to go sledding or build a snowman. They're starting to ask every day when it's going to snow.

For this type of event 60 hours might as well be 300. We’re talking about nailing down a very localized meso band. That’s like expecting the morels to get a line of thunderstorms correct from 60 hours. Juts getting typical Nina chaotic northern stream waves right outside 48 hours is hard enough. This is almost impossible. This isn’t a split flow Nino pattern where nailing STJ systems at long leads is a legit thing. The best analog in anyone’s set was 2014 and remember in that season almost none of the snows were depicted well outside 48 hours. The times it looked like snow from day 5 typically busted and almost all the snows that winter looked ambiguous at best from 72 hours out and trended into something inside that range. edit: best analog meaning the snowiest and one we hope ends up correct I’m not saying this is a 2014 clone coming. But I did incorporate some ideas from that winter into my expectations for this season. So far we’ve just been a bit unlucky. But every year is different. That year we got lucky and a lot of those waves hit us. A similar pattern won’t necessarily produce as good of results.

You're 100% correct on what the significant influences will be here. The issue is, none of these factors are things the guidance can possibly nail down to the exact mile at any significant lead time. This is essentially a meso scale event where nailing features to within a few miles becomes critical and that won't be possible until maybe even inside 24 hours if not nowcast.

We are in the game...but it's hard to get excited at all when the margin for error is so thin. Which has been true of most of our threats lately which is why I've not been to active tracking things until inside 48 hours.

If this general pattern continues we will get a snowstorm.

Not every situation follows that general rule. Several factors I weighted. I think the PDO is becoming more favorable and that matters more than an incredibly weak Nina. The fall pattern matched the snowier analogs I identified. We’re due.

I wasn't trying to be snarky or confrontational...I am sorry if it came off that way.

With a weaker STJ and a stronger NS (both typical in a Nina base state) it's not unusual for a lot of these waves to end up too weak or suppressed. There is a reason the snowfall minimum (wrt averages) is pretty much right over us in a Nina. There is a better chance of more snow wrt average if you go in any direction...we are too far south for the NS dominant systems and too far north for the weaker STJ systems in a nina pattern. This is a generalization and not to be applied to every situation...but it's going to end up truth in the means over the longer periods...what we have seen is not some bad luck, its what happens in this type of pattern. We need to get out of it.

We’ve been in a Nina ish pacific base state for a long time. That isn’t good for gulf miller a type systems.

write a letter, make sure they know

If you take a step back and just look at the larger pattern progression it might be the period that makes the most sense...but it's also the furthest out of all the concrete threats.

What I will say is that I decided to let my "slightly above average snowfall" seasonal forecast ride. And nothing I've seen so far makes me regret that.

This is what I meant in my last comment about so many permutations...the CMC actually made the changes we need with the NS, but it has a weaker more disjointed southern system and has this little kicker behind it that wasn't there before or on other guidance...so it ends up with the same result. If you had that NS look from the CMC with the GFS/Euro TN valley look...it would be a snowstorm for us. But I'm not good enough to figure out all these little variables from this range and I am not going to project false confidence and pretend I am.

There are so many variables and permutations...they all matter to some degree. I was not even really focusing on that feature, which does NOT mean it's not important, just means it wasn't where my attention was...the Mexican energy mostly washes out and the wave that ends up in the TN valley is from the energy that comes into the PAC NW and ejects from the Rockies around 100 hours. IMO the wave is healthy enough, the biggest problem is the timing and strength of that NS wave in front of it and the orientation of the NS. If we can just get one change...that is the one I would look for. But there are a ton of variables...we could root for a ton of other little factors that could lead to a better result...better phasing between that Mexican energy and the PAC wave leading to an even stronger TN valley system...changes in the timing of that system, if it were to slow down by 12-24 hours...but then does that introduce temp issues...UGH see it gets complicated and I am trying to keep it simple lol