psuhoffman

But what I don’t like is other than the gfs everything is IVT related and that feature is bleeding northeast across guidance which seems to be what usually happens. They are very rare down here. They more commonly end up impacting to our northeast. My fear is the coastal is a non thing and the IVT trends northeast and ends up a Philly thing and…well ya

If a low gets too intense and vertically stacks the moisture transport is cut off to its west and everything is focused on the intense but compact qpf field. We saw it somewhat with that coastal bomb in 2018

Oh I know just pointing out how rare it is…also noting it because assuming we don’t get a gfs solution it shows how difficult it would be to win from the coastal here we need the low tracking up the bay basically.

It was off on its own 2-3 days before Jan 25 but not this far. This is odd. But it does suck.

Obviously this doesn’t matter but it took a track of the slp to the mouth of the Potomac to get the deform band back across our area. All the runs that have a bomb wind up the storm so tight it’s unusual. A track that close usually has precip type issues all the way to the blue ridge and heavy snow to state college.

It’s crap. Most of that snow is light and associated with the mid level instability. Look at the stuff to our south here. That’s the stuff that was back over KY when we were excited. That’s what will become the developing wave. Everything NW of that is just instability or INV trough related.

For Bermuda? That thing is WAY easy

My fear is the inverted trough keeps trending east and we end up west of everything. That’s my “how we get screwed” vision.

I nominated it for @Maestrobjwa since he is so interested in this week every year

Thank you, you did an excellent job. Now rest up so you're ready when we need you to post the 0z UK kuch maps showing 27"

Some people act stupid. Others aren't acting.

This is true of the Euro also... when it's Dr. no it's great but when it shows snow it isn't.

This is much less confusing once you all accept my conclusion that we are living in a simulation built by the jilted lover of a mid atlantic snow weenie.

AGAIN...the chart...

I guess if you don't differentiate between 24" and 4" lol

No I don't know...every single model has shifted quite a bit...Euro had been the only steady one and then it shifted last run...

Things are still trending...this is not the final outcome we are seeing today. But everything is trending the way we want for now. That's all I'm taking from this. UK was nice except freaking torched at the surface...would have been a nice 4-8" snow across the area if it wasn't so damn warm at the surface.

that is exactly what happens...and yea not worried YET although for a long time now whatever can go wrong does go wrong

a lot of changes still happening...but I need to know how a sub 990 low tracking INSIDE Hatteras ends up mostly missing us!

it looked good early but somehow wound up so tight it ended up a pretty bad run other than down south

Everything trends a certain way...except when we need it that way

The difference is minor but there...take whatever the GGEM ends up showing and develop the storm a little sooner and amp it up a bit more and that's what the RGEM was showing...which isn't to say one is more right lol

GGEM is slightly less amplified than RGEM at 84 hours...so they might end up close...but RGEM was going to be better.

maybe my bar is low but it looks a lot better to me

keep us close heading into the final 72 hours with that upper low closing off right over us and the inverted trough around and we have a shot at something going out way. But there is so much noise in front of this both it terms of how the blocking north of us evolves (and yes there is blocking...look at the flow over top of us, the Hudson High is doing it's job) and all the little SWs flying around. I think there are likely to continue to be some changes up until the very end here...so I just want us close enough that these changes could make a difference for us.