psuhoffman
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Everything posted by psuhoffman
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I know, honestly when I post the snow maps it’s because I’m lazy and don’t have time to do a full breakdown of the real maps or answer the 50 questions you get if you just post a promising h5 plot without any editing and analysis.
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You have 9 friends and a mirror? also…”literally” …but I don’t make 150k so wtf do I know.
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Don’t worry we know that window is yours. Brooklyn just does quick drive byes he don’t read up. He probably only saw posts about PD in the last hour and figured he’d enlighten us. It’s not quite as bad when it’s at least a red tag doing it. Some of the kids who post some model run 17 hours after it was discussed gets super annoying.
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The flizzard has begun
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I called someone a bigot today (for being a blatant bigot not political) and his response was “I’m not a FCKN bigot youse a fagot”
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Uh oh you just sent up the batsignal to @Stormchaserchuck1 -
The AIFS eps has a known under dispersion issue. So when it’s good it can be very good. And then it flips to nothing a run later. Thats a flaw with its ens. Any well distributed ensemble system from 200 hours isn’t going to snow some super crazy signal because at that range there should be a lot of variance to the perturbations.
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It’s 200 hours out. What kind of signal are you expecting?
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And that’s why you use the median not the mean
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Yea that’s all that’s wrong
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I just realized that was a 10-1 map. After looking at the kuchy I can push it to 60!
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Thank god Carroll closed !
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Flurries in Hanover. I need a coating bad. There is deer piss and sh!t all over the snow.
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Can we compromise on 50? DC metro deserves it…but man don’t F over the northern fringes for the southern portion of our sub. They are doing like 200% better wrt climo the last 5 years than I am.
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Keep us posted
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I showed you yesterday how the EPS was so close and if that Baja wave just ejected a bit more energy…boom. Once in a long while I know what I’m talking about. There are still 5000 little things that can go wrong. Over amping becomes an issue if it ejects too much. Remember Jan 25! This time we won’t have arctic cold to offset a hostile track. But when guidance was squashing the thing I knew there was a good chance it came back because it needed a slight adjustment in a way models often are biased.
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Euro says I might see my lawn sometime in May
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In fairness it’s run 4 times a day and taking every time it spits out one random run at 200+ hours with snow isn’t fair to categorize it as “predicting a snowstorm”. This is only the 3rd time it was consistently hitting a specific storm for multiple runs. One is them ended up good. The other not. We will see.
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That’s the lead wave. The main event is slightly better
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But what if a 20”er is texting you a booty call?
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@Stormchaserchuck1 the 2 times recently we got significant Atlantic side help during the 2nd half of the winter during a -PNA period we did stay cold and somewhat snowy. Late Jan early Feb 2021 and March 2018. I don’t think the blocking coming up will equal those two BUT we have a much colder antecedent airmass also so those two might wash out.
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it was a weaker version of Feb 5 2010. Much weaker which duh Nina. But synoptically the same idea and progression. -PNA, pac wave ejects and is forced east under a block and can’t gain any latitude. Take the CMC and amp that wave a bit more and that’s our win scenario
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It did a thing on my house
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You think we shouldn’t take the op gfs at 200 hours too seriously?
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Preach
