psuhoffman

My 11 year old son who is into engineering and science would probably listen and then start pulling up videos about it on his tablet. My 7 year old daughter would look at me and say "but my unicorn stuffy said it's going to snow" She is clearly the one on her way to a healthier, happier life.

I just want enough for my kids to be able to go sledding or build a snowman. They're starting to ask every day when it's going to snow.

For this type of event 60 hours might as well be 300. We’re talking about nailing down a very localized meso band. That’s like expecting the morels to get a line of thunderstorms correct from 60 hours. Juts getting typical Nina chaotic northern stream waves right outside 48 hours is hard enough. This is almost impossible. This isn’t a split flow Nino pattern where nailing STJ systems at long leads is a legit thing. The best analog in anyone’s set was 2014 and remember in that season almost none of the snows were depicted well outside 48 hours. The times it looked like snow from day 5 typically busted and almost all the snows that winter looked ambiguous at best from 72 hours out and trended into something inside that range. edit: best analog meaning the snowiest and one we hope ends up correct I’m not saying this is a 2014 clone coming. But I did incorporate some ideas from that winter into my expectations for this season. So far we’ve just been a bit unlucky. But every year is different. That year we got lucky and a lot of those waves hit us. A similar pattern won’t necessarily produce as good of results.

You're 100% correct on what the significant influences will be here. The issue is, none of these factors are things the guidance can possibly nail down to the exact mile at any significant lead time. This is essentially a meso scale event where nailing features to within a few miles becomes critical and that won't be possible until maybe even inside 24 hours if not nowcast.

We are in the game...but it's hard to get excited at all when the margin for error is so thin. Which has been true of most of our threats lately which is why I've not been to active tracking things until inside 48 hours.

If this general pattern continues we will get a snowstorm.

Not every situation follows that general rule. Several factors I weighted. I think the PDO is becoming more favorable and that matters more than an incredibly weak Nina. The fall pattern matched the snowier analogs I identified. We’re due.

I wasn't trying to be snarky or confrontational...I am sorry if it came off that way.

With a weaker STJ and a stronger NS (both typical in a Nina base state) it's not unusual for a lot of these waves to end up too weak or suppressed. There is a reason the snowfall minimum (wrt averages) is pretty much right over us in a Nina. There is a better chance of more snow wrt average if you go in any direction...we are too far south for the NS dominant systems and too far north for the weaker STJ systems in a nina pattern. This is a generalization and not to be applied to every situation...but it's going to end up truth in the means over the longer periods...what we have seen is not some bad luck, its what happens in this type of pattern. We need to get out of it.

We’ve been in a Nina ish pacific base state for a long time. That isn’t good for gulf miller a type systems.

write a letter, make sure they know

If you take a step back and just look at the larger pattern progression it might be the period that makes the most sense...but it's also the furthest out of all the concrete threats.

What I will say is that I decided to let my "slightly above average snowfall" seasonal forecast ride. And nothing I've seen so far makes me regret that.

This is what I meant in my last comment about so many permutations...the CMC actually made the changes we need with the NS, but it has a weaker more disjointed southern system and has this little kicker behind it that wasn't there before or on other guidance...so it ends up with the same result. If you had that NS look from the CMC with the GFS/Euro TN valley look...it would be a snowstorm for us. But I'm not good enough to figure out all these little variables from this range and I am not going to project false confidence and pretend I am.

There are so many variables and permutations...they all matter to some degree. I was not even really focusing on that feature, which does NOT mean it's not important, just means it wasn't where my attention was...the Mexican energy mostly washes out and the wave that ends up in the TN valley is from the energy that comes into the PAC NW and ejects from the Rockies around 100 hours. IMO the wave is healthy enough, the biggest problem is the timing and strength of that NS wave in front of it and the orientation of the NS. If we can just get one change...that is the one I would look for. But there are a ton of variables...we could root for a ton of other little factors that could lead to a better result...better phasing between that Mexican energy and the PAC wave leading to an even stronger TN valley system...changes in the timing of that system, if it were to slow down by 12-24 hours...but then does that introduce temp issues...UGH see it gets complicated and I am trying to keep it simple lol

It's far enough out that making that kind of determination is risky. I will say this...if the northern stream is very close to what is being depicted right now...its a threat for the southern mid atlantic. If the northern stream were to relax some or that wave were to get ahead more and out of the way...it becomes a threat for our area perhaps...but would still have a cap to how far north it could make it...and my biggest fear would still be a fringe, if the northern stream wave were to be further behind...and possibly phase...that would open the door to a coastal climbing system that could threaten further north. I have no read on this, I've not had time to really dig in more than some superficial analysis... so I am not going to pretend to have any insight into which way it's more likely to go.

I don't think it's a mirage...the setup has the potential for an actual snowstorm. We need the timing of a northern stream wave to change. If it does...and asking for that kind of change at this range is not crazy...the setup is there. That doesn't mean, of course, we will get the changes we need...but I don't think the threat is dead yet. 12z GFS The problem is there is a wave coming across right on top of the potential system as it's entering the TN Valley...suppressing it right at the critical moment for our purposes. If that wave to our north is 12 hours further along...there might be room...if it is 12 hours further behind...it opens the door to a phase in a helpful way instead of a suppressive impact. There are options here that very reasonable changes to this depiction could very easy result in snow for our area. Most of the ingredients we need for a snowstorm are right there...with just one thing we need to get out of the way. I wouldn't give up on it yet.

I don't usually let busts get to me anymore...but that one...yea that one...

Two things can be true. The euro products are still the best, and if you can only have one thing in your corner that is the one you want...but the euro is not so dominant over all other guidance that it's typically right when it's all on its own. If that was true forecasts would just be a rip and read copy of the euro. A consensus between all the guidance is still typically more accurate than any one model. The real skill is knowing when one model "Might" be on to something that others are missing. Using experience and history and pattern analysis to try to figure out what the right weights are in each specific situation.

When’s it gonna start. Patiently waiting

Methuselah?

That’s good. Precip is in and out in 6 hours. Our best shot is a heavy thump that dynamically cools the column enough to overcome the WAA for a few hours. There is no scenario where we get a slow moving prolonged frozen event.

Dew point is 18. This doesn’t feel like the typical warm bust when we were 50 the day before and sitting here with a dealing already in the upper 20s.

I went to Oakton. ‘97.