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Wxbear25

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  1. Wxbear25
    @500mb through 27 hours Cabo energy is captured (faster than the 18z for sure) and already tilted negative. I wonder if an earlier capture of that Cabo energy would be better. If it gets caught in the flow earlier, maybe it loses its amplitude further south resulting in less WAA aloft by the time it gets to our latitude... just spitballing theories though, looking for cold lol
  2. Wxbear25
    That seems anecdotal, more than anything. Surface temps are almost always an issue on LI, save for storms like this with a frigid antecedent airmass and a high which, while not perfectly positioned, will still help to turn winds more northerly than otherwise. Regardless, in this particular storm LI is basically the northern extent of the warm nose, so a small shift south will make a difference. In a system where the warm air is forecast to blast into CT 2 days out, you're more or less screwed.
  3. Wxbear25
    Man, Long Island is on a razors edge. Close enough where its still feasible a small change in track makes a huge difference but still, models almost always underdo mid-level warmth and low-level cold. I'm sticking with a general 8-12 island wide though... counting on the thump coming in like a banshee
  4. Wxbear25
    we want that shortwave to get stretched and shredded as it heads into the Tennessee Valley. If it maintains its integrity, it will result in stronger mid-level features which means more mid-level warming
  5. Wxbear25
    I wouldnt worry about the 3K too much at this point. Take a look at it, see how its trending, but verbatim its not quite in its wheelhouse just yet
  6. Wxbear25
    the NAM SHOULD be an improvement over 6z, the s/w is flatter over the ARKLATEX region, so it should help to dampen the strengthening of the initial low... But then again, I thought 00z was an improvement early on too, so yeah...
  7. Wxbear25
    Definitely more confluence north of the region on the 00z NAM thus far vs 18z and especially 12z. Coupled with a flatter ridge east of it and less interaction thus far between the s/w and the longwave trough, it seems improved, but too early to be 100% certain
  8. Wxbear25
    NAM continues the idea of more separation between the trough over the western U.S. and the feature currently off the coast
  9. Wxbear25
    Agreed. We may not jackpot, but I’m extremely confident in 6” at minimum. Upside of this is like 15-20, but if had to pick a general range for the Island right now I’d go 8-12
  10. Wxbear25
    Dubious, at best, but you do you. Regardless, if anything I feel better having at least one model showing what the GFS is. Would love to see some more models head that way, some of which have been gradually moving towards a colder solution but still need work Still plenty of time, here’s to a GFS coup
  11. Wxbear25
    GFS is the absolute best case scenario for the NYC subforum lol
  12. Wxbear25
    GFS out to 51 slightly lower heights pretty much everywhere compared to 12z continues the trend of holding off a bit longer on capturing the ULL from California
  13. Wxbear25
    Sleet isn’t caused by the surface reflection, it’s caused by the mid-levels. If you want less sleet, you either want less well defined mid-level features to the west so the warm tongue isn’t as strong (It would also result in less precip due to less WAA, but still) or you want the entire thing to shift southeast
  14. Wxbear25
    500MB on the RGEM features slightly higher heights ahead of the s/w and head weaker confluence over southern Ontario/Quebec when compared with the NAM
  15. Wxbear25
    Yup. The further south and east the CA wave gets before it gets scooped up the better In this run, more of it escapes the influence of the trough diving behind it, so it doesn’t turn the corner as much, which results in demonstrably lower heights in the east
  16. Wxbear25
    NAM definitely trending towards slowing down how quickly the S/W off the coast of California interacts with the energy to the west. Last three runs have been separating them more and more through 45 hours theoretically that’s good news, but there’s a lot more in play than just that piece of the puzzle
  17. Wxbear25
    I wonder how well sampled the northern energy is as well, that’s another important part of this equation between the ULL off the coast of CA, the ULL over southeastern Canada, energy south of Alaska and energy currently over Russia that dives into the trough, there are a lot of players on the field
  18. Wxbear25
    The NWS going hog-wild at this point is surprising. Think they get burned going so high, personally, but we’re not THAT far off from a colder, all-snow scenario I suppose
  19. Wxbear25
    Right, I was originally responding to someone but I did it on Tapatalk instead of the browser by mistake so my response blew up, so I edited it down and cut out some stuff by mistake
  20. Wxbear25
    When/if the changeover occurs, it will compact down for sure especially if it occurs during the heavier precip instead of waiting for a more “dry slot” snizzle/sleet scenario
  21. Wxbear25
    Agreed. Even if we mix with/change to sleet, the WAA is going to come in like a banshee, and EVERYTHING is going to stick immediately given how cold it is preceding the storm
  22. Wxbear25
    It’s tough to line up 1 to 1 since temporal differences also impact these things, so a faster wave might look like it “warms faster” when in reality the whole process is just happening faster, including the precip arriving, etc. , looking at the soundings, it looks slightly (but noticeably) colder
  23. Wxbear25
    The surface low isn’t the issue here all, it’s the mid-level features. That goes into Buffalo, you toast the mid-levels at least at the coast you could argue a weaker surface low is indicative of less dynamic forcing, but if you want to see whether you’re going to stay snow, you need to watch that 850 mb low
  24. Wxbear25
    GFS is almost ideal for pretty much everyone in the sub-forum… messier phase leads to less pronounced mid-level features and quicker transition to the coast. of course it’s been a day late and a dollar short this whole time, so it can’t be trusted without other support but it’s at least nice to see oh, and it’s nasty little tendency to underdo mid-level warmth. Pretty big issue
  25. Wxbear25
    Right, but there was absolutely a path to a very cold, pure snow event. Unfortunately, the trough in Canada is acting more as a mechanism to pull the S/W Northeast instead of east Honestly We’re not toast yet though. Wouldn’t take THAT much more confluence north of us to press heights a bit more to keep it colder and snowier… not that that’s what I’d forecast at this moment
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