WeatherGeek2025

Guys driving, how does the EPS 0z run look? colder or warmer? same?

that's a great thing Euro AI is a good model probably the best i stand by it but maybe we're just going to get some sleet. But a 30 mile shift south could change the outcome to all snow. still another 72 hours until the first flakes come in. Plenty of time for that southern 30-40 mile shift!

right now as it stands every model shows 6-12 inches of snow followed probably by a bunch of sleet. The GFS is the only model that shows pure snow for the city and west if you use kuchera probably getting around 12-18 inches according to GFS. Hopefully the GFS is right. Even if the other models that are showing that warm nose aloft it's fine we're still getting a good amount of snow followed by heavy sleet which will have staying power for our snow cover for weeks!

yeah that's true but if we can get GFS or iconic to be the real solution most on this and our forum would be happy

by Saturday sleet might tickle dendrites behind

i dunno the mix is trending north by saturday it's going to tickle dendrites behind

good morning i see stuff trended north this morning. still plenty of time for this to come a little south and hit us like the GFS! Id like to say this, i'd rather have GfS than Euro at this range!

it's ok brother thank you

kinda like my snowmap too

read more and post less. i said the GFS was going to fold to euro ai and it did. honestly you post nothing of value besides try to dig knowledgeable posters. you should banter your jokes

gfs and icon almost identical cmc out to lunch

almost bombgenesis! GFS is what i think will happen. I expect Euro AI to look like the GFS in the next few runs possibly even tonight. Cmc is wrong!

i tried the kuchera, theres some lolis of 24 plus in the NYC burbs lol

Icon keeps snowing all day monday into early tuesday as the new Low develops off the coast of Jersey and throws some moisture our way! great run

looks to be mostly snow for the city

icon sucks but yes it's about 30 miles south and cooler right where we want it i guess

i guess the only way to find out is do hourly measurements

0z nam vs 18z europe gfs and euro ai same timeframe

yeah what happened to Alberta clippers seems like so long we haven't had one. By the way guys, do youl know if NAM will have the new Recon information or the other 0z runs for that matter injected into their outputs?

Don, you're the statistics man, do you happen to know ? what type of storms were they and what type of airmass (temps) we had during the storms?

let's ask some mets? is it possible to get 20:1 in a overrunning system in the beginning and half way if the system while temperatures are way below freezing? @forkyfork @SBUWX23i could be wrong i was just thinking this would be a good time to get those ratios because it's not windy, and it's very cold aloft and at the surface!

hey John I did look at the Euro AI model and they were all below 0 celsius which to me shows all snow. The low doesn't cut or transfer it just rides the baroclinic pressure gradient which is way south of us.

because the low isn't particularly strong what so ever, but the high pressure is very potent. The low pressure though a big system isn't strong to push that arctic dome of air out in time, by the time it does the low pressure is outta here that's why it doesn't become a true coastal. To me as it stands and of course that could change is a tone of overrunning with really high ratios because you've got a tone of moisture running into a brick wall, and once it saturates it will snow like crazy and the rates could be potentially even 20:1! It won't particularly be windy either with temperatures way below freezing, it will stick and be very sandy snow. Look for the smallest sized flakes come Sunday and Sunday night, as the low moves out offshore, the flakes could become bigger and the ratios will actually fall!

no i swear it's not that, it makes the most sense. Also it's all snow for Central Park

it was the GFS that had it going wide right! Nam and Euro had us at 30 inch forecast