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wthrmn654

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Everything posted by wthrmn654

  1. wthrmn654
    it starts exiting land near the georgia/florida borders roughly speaking hour hour 102 fully over atlantic at 108
  2. wthrmn654
    yep looking at rainfall total estimates from this run to last its a little east of last run but deft closer to coastline. very wet!!
  3. wthrmn654
    hour 84 it turns northeast into florida.
  4. wthrmn654
    its hugging the western side of florida again, about same position as last run east of 00z run though.. looks like something changed to want it to be closer to florida so far
  5. wthrmn654
    gfs is about the same so far out to 48hrs placement wise
  6. wthrmn654
    just making a correctio to my model post just realized that the maps were 00z and 6z
  7. wthrmn654
    Could be a flare up, but will be interesting to see if it confines etc.
  8. wthrmn654
    oh, looking through my tropical favorites other day, sadly, we have lost the model plots maps from : www.sfwmd.gov they have discontinued them sadly.. i liked there model
  9. wthrmn654
    gefs is east, closer to florida, versus eps west... we have seen this before though and its going either be a win for the euro or a win for the gfs.
  10. wthrmn654
  11. wthrmn654
  12. wthrmn654
    Give me a second I have 6z tracks lol there kinda funny as gefs and eps have kinda switched from what I gathered.
  13. wthrmn654
    97L has formed
  14. wthrmn654
    What the heck did the 6z euro do? I'm not exactly sure what I'm looking at....
  15. wthrmn654
    Gefs still has basically 2 clusters one goes up the east coast one goes back into the gulf, after its on the east coast.... talk about head scratching
  16. wthrmn654
    Early on euro, looks like it lost the storm with nothing out to Monday.
  17. wthrmn654
    Icon gets it very close to us as well following a very similar path
  18. wthrmn654
    Wow , that cmc is interesting Goes through florida then up through Georgia then the Carolinas then back into Atlantic then up very close to us..
  19. wthrmn654
    18z eps further in gulf too
  20. wthrmn654
    It should be noted that the gefs 00z has a handful of Atlantic ensembles as well. In the beginning before it goes left...
  21. wthrmn654
    1.15 inches this morning, not bad.
  22. wthrmn654
    One thing to note, The euro AI model latest run gets it very close to the long Island area about 985mb, but it's run to run changes are 1000% dramatic. Highly unlikely
  23. wthrmn654
    Navgem, icon, euro and jma all show a fairly similar idea, the cmc has also looked like the euro idea but has been wildly all over the place. Gfs has been a very stubborn child with the left turn... . However, Going into the Florida area they all look to start the same roughly speaking... That's my opinion of what I see/ have seen with all various runs etc.. little to no predictably as of yet.
  24. wthrmn654
    18z icon shows it going into gulf, crosses florida, then comes out eastern ish side. Weak mess but juicy..
  25. wthrmn654
    I'm not so sure it caved, play that whole run it then comes up the coast and gets stronger with it heading for long Island or nyc it would seem. Believeable or likely happening? 1% chance But it's something to deft keep eyes on... cmc has had an up the coast setup as well jma too am extent to... but there's a lot of wacky variables at play.
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