wthrmn654

And such a huge areas, 39 million people in the watch area

Montioring an area of showers, with a few embedded thunderstorms, across Upstate NY and PA as it tracks north and east in association with a pre-frontal trough. Cloud cover is increasing and skies will go overcast as it nears, and this throws some uncertainty into exactly when and where any potential severe threat materializes this afternoon. SPC mesoanalysis indicates rebounding instability behind this rain, and CAMs hint at new convection firing and tracking east later today. No significant changes for now, though adjusted temps and PoPs in the near term to account for the incoming rain.

Amazing how identical it can be on "good days" and how it stands out on the other days.... nothing looks awry to me.. if it was way higher versus what other ones did, and often, OK that's different but it's not.. it follows the graph in general.

Hopefully this all pans out to give everyone some excitement today! The approach of a cold front to the west will bring the potential for strong to severe scattered thunderstorms today. A warm and moist boundary layer will support strong instability with 1500 - 3000 J/kg of CAPE by the late morning and into the early afternoon. With 0-6 km shear of 30-40 kt, thunderstorms will have ample opportunity to remain organized and become strong to severe. There remains ample surface and upper level forcing with an upper level jet streak allowing for divergence aloft, an approaching vorticity maximum in the mid-levels, and a surface cold front allowing for lift through the entire atmosphere. This will likely result in the development of scattered thunderstorms as early as late morning. Thunderstorms likely become more widespread and more intense into the afternoon as instability is maximized. The primary threat for thunderstorms is damaging wind gusts, though hail, and a tornado can not be ruled out. Additionally, PWAT values on the order of 2 - 2.3 inches will allow for any thunderstorm that develops to produce heavy rainfall with rates up to or exceeding 1" per hour. This may result in localized flash flooding, especially in more urban and vulnerable areas. Poor drainage flooding can be expected in any thunderstorm. WPC has the area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall today.

Mostly sunny and 80°F with winds 15-25mph, gusting to 35 mph 72% humidity and Dewpoint is at 70.3°F

Newark hit 100

Wow did the winds really pickup!

Finally hit 90, Dewpoint up to 69 51% humidity Heart index 95.6°F

Dewpoint is dropping pretty fast here to now, down to 67

7-20-2020 was the highest dew point in the past few years of 80..

86.5 with about a 71 dew point! The amount of sweat I've made already today!

I've always thought that the gladestone quality checking isn't really correct/ done the best in some occasions. For example, my nearest is usually the station at Grabreski , which temps etc can vary fairly drastically at times versus mine.

This wind reminding me i still need to readjust my station on roof, it's not aimed correctly still

There's deft a healthy breeze today, though temps are still climbing here on other fork.

Already 10 outages affecting 210 people on the island.

Right, just seemed odd seeing that blob on the north shore. I'm assuming as well that's a blooper of sorts. Especially since riverhead, where it shows drought has seen nearly 4 inches of rain this month already lol

You know it's too hot out when there's not 1 but 2 car fires at literally the exact same time, one on the northern state, one on the southern state... and on either ends of the Meadowbrook parkway that connects the 2!... 1 in million odds

And bam just like that forecast high is 91 now

Forecast high is 86 for my area but it's already 82. Hmm well I beat that, time will tell!

I feel like that depiction out towards riverhead is incorrect, they had 2-3 inches of rain in the past week.

Here at the state park we're starting the day off at 77°F Humidity at 82% Dew point of 71.2°F Heat index 77.2

81 at 930 woof

Maxed out at 93 today down to 84

- Changed Discussion -- Forecast area will remain at the southern edge of the westerlies through the upcoming weak, which will allow for several frontal systems to impact the area. Additionally, temperatures this week will be mainly at or just above normal with the exception of Monday and Friday, where temperatures will be a bit warmer ahead of approaching cold fronts. There is uncertainty Monday with both temperatures and the magnitude/coverage of convection in the afternoon/evening hours as a pre-frontal trough triggers the majority of the convection. Model time-height cross sections indicate an abundance of mid and high level moisture (clouds) which would be a limiting factor for highs as well as how much the airmass destabilizes. For the time, have held off on extending the heat advisory into Monday, but the potential remains. SPC has maintained a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms across the entire area Monday. The main threat being damaging winds associated with multicell clusters or line segments. Deep-layer shear does deepen through the day. The question is the amount of daytime heating/destabilization (extent of cloud cover) and whether the forcing with the pre-frontal trough will be deep enough to trigger convection. Mid-level lapse rates, as has been the case for most events this warm season, are around or just shy of 6C. So while not a slam dunk event (rarely are here), the ingredients are there for severe weather. In addition, the southward progression of the boundary will be slow, raising possible concerns for training of thunderstorms. WPC has the area under a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall. High pressure builds in behind the cold front for Tue and Wed. A warm front is forecast to move through the area Wednesday night into Thursday, followed by a cold frontal passage Friday. Chances of showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast during this time. -- End Changed Discussion --

Tomorrow's record highs .CLIMATE... Record maximum temps are possible on Sunday 7/24. Below are the current records max temps. EWR- 99/2010 BDR- 95/2010 NYC- *97/2010 LGA- *98/2010 JFK- 97/2010 ISP- 96/2010 * ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS