Baum

33 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Yep. It just happened over Central Wisconsin.

There ya go!

there is an 8"-12" storm lurking....even in the worst of winters............

if it's the 18Z NAM that's exactly what you want to see. 

14 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

DAB+

isn't that a can't miss? 

^

at some point you would think this two year pattern of weak sheared events that fade as they get near would end........maybe this is the pattern breaker. Got to end at some point.

legit heavy snow....

coming down nicely again...wind has been a non factor.

Decent rates. Quick ground cover. Looks like it will play out as called.

12 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

A ridiculous band of snow pushed through SD/MN overnight, producing up to 3"/hr.  There are totals of 12" in a narrow band through Minnesota, including Mankato, while across the border in South Dakota up to 16" fell.  Why can stuff like this never happen here?

We are getting rain/sleet this morning.

karma. I fully expect this to happen IMBY today.

LOT in subtle walk back mode:...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS  
AFTERNOON...  
   
REST OF TODAY  
SNOW LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN SNOW AND DRIZZLE  
IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY  
AT TIMES. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. TOTAL SNOW  
ACCUMULATION 1 TO 5 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTH WINDS  
10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF MEASURABLE  
PRECIPITATION 100 PERCENT.......

12 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Punt. Next. There's the midweek system at least. Going to forecast a dab at this time 

according to this you really weren't in line for much....

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  
811 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2020  
   
UPDATE  
  
ISSUED AT 805 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2020  
  
SATURATION HAS NOT YET RESULTED IN A WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT, AND  
TEMPERATURES ARE IN FACT WARMING ALOFT, QUICKLY. THE SURFACE  
WETBULB 32 IS ALREADY FOUND ALONG AN AXIS FROM NEWTON IA, TO  
MUSCATINE TO MACOMB. SOUTHWEST OF THIS LINE, WINTER IMPACTS WILL  
BE EITHER NON EXISTENT, OR VERY SHORT TERM. FATHER NORTH, ALONG  
I-80, WE ARE SEEING NARROW F-GEN BANDS OF MODERATE MIXED SNOW AND  
SLEET, WITH SOME RAIN AND DRIZZLE IN BETWEEN. THAT SHOULD  
TEMPORARILY SWITCH TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW, AS THE COLUMN COOLS  
DUE TO EVAPORATION AND DYNAMIC LIFT. HOWEVER, THE INTENSE WAA WILL  
WIN OUT BY LATE MORNING, RESULTING IN A SWITCH TO RAIN AND  
DRIZZLE. OUR HEADLINES CERTAINLY REPRESENT THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO  
SEE MORE THAN ONE OUR OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THIS PROCESS, AND  
WILL KEEP THEM IN PLACE UNTIL +32 WETBULB TEMP AND SNOW LIFT   
NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY

place under a WWA. LOT with a great write up this AM....just a sampling:HAVE SEEN PERIODIC GLM LIGHTNING FLASHES AND EVEN  
A FEW CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES DETECTED, SIGNS OF THE   
IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ROBUST HYBRID CLIPPER   
SYSTEM.   

THE ECMWF SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE MOST   
CONSISTENT WITH THIS THREAT, WHICH CONTINUED ON THE 00Z CYCLE,   
INCLUDING GOOD ENSEMBLE SUPPORT. PREVIOUS HOLDOUT GFS SUITE   
TRENDED STRONGLY TOWARD THE ECMWF WITH THE 00Z CYCLE. THE MEAN   
SOLUTION OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES BRINGS ITS BROAD SNOW   
SWATH OVER THE CWA, WITH THIS LIKELY BEING FROM A DEVELOPING   
DEFORMATION AREA BASED ON THE GENERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBER SURFACE LOW   
PLACEMENT. ....LOT AM AFD on the potential. If 12Z holds might be thread time.

35 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

After hemming and hawing for several days due to model variability...SPC went ahead and dropped a big old Day 4 30% for Dixie Alley...and it wasn't Broyles!

huh?

glad I checked in. Let's get this done, and I'll take the early spring. Euro stays on course...who starts the thread?

SUNDAY  
SNOW IN THE MORNING, THEN SNOW OR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE  
LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW MAY BE  
HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO  
2 INCHES. BLUSTERY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO  
25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF MEASURABLE  
PRECIPITATION 100 PERCENT.  ..... TYPO ..happens

"THE HIGHEST SURFACE WINDS OVERLAP THE PERIOD MOST FAVORED FOR   
EFFICIENT SNOWFALL RATES. THESE ELEMENTS COMBINED ARE WHY   
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH ALREADY TO INCLUDE 1/2SM SN MENTION IN   
THE TAF."...LOT 18Z Aviation discussion

23 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I would take RC's post farther and say that I wouldn't be surprised to see a period of blizzard/near blizzard conditions in the LOT cwa.  You need 3 hours of meeting the visibility and gust criteria which may be tough to do at any given location, but nonetheless it should be pretty intense for a while.  There is tremendous low level wind in the waa regime, a lot of which should have trouble mixing down but still enough for some 35+ mph gusts I think.  Also will be curious to see what happens with the winds if that heavy burst of snow materializes... whether it enhances the gusts or not.

if this were the case LOT would have to consider a WWA, although I guess RC mentioned the rare SSA(snow squall advisory)...looks like Izzi is in the house. If anybody would pull the trigger on that it'd be him.

^

no use bellyaching about a 2-3" potential in a winter like this

22 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Top 5 most interesting event of the winter if it pans out lol

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

41 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Not sure systems in December were weak fades.Seems we had several decently strong rainers come through 

December was dry as a bone...minus the system that scooted through St. Loius and Indy. In my mind, we have not had a true amped storm that wraps up in the winter season in almost two seasons. NAM looks better on this event it seems. Hoping for a 2-4" event...pipe dream I'm sure...

4 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

^ last minute N bump in a mild winter. Shocking! 

reality....the usual trends have been weak fades to the south...not saying that would be the case here.

^

i have no issue with an ealry spring meaning consistent 50's and 60's beginning in March. But it never works out that way...climo, I guess.

6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Ill take the 00z nam.

your in SE Michigan....does  nothing for me. Though, I'm good for anyone else scoring.