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LordBaltimore

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Everything posted by LordBaltimore

  1. LordBaltimore
    If we can be sure of anything it's that accumulation on road-side snow piles will be amazing
  2. LordBaltimore
    Wet ground matters because it increases conducivity. But then that becomes a factor of ground temperature which is still quite cold because of the snowpack. It's not nearly as much of a factor as it normally is
  3. LordBaltimore
    People have this idea I think that the quality of models is more different than they really are. Like I remember someone saying yesterday that the GFS takes multiple cycles to flush out bad initialization data. That's literally how every single modern weather model works. It's called 4dvar. It's something that would impact the Euro too
  4. LordBaltimore
    What's that guys? Do I hear CAVING from Euro's room?
  5. LordBaltimore
    GFS isn't anywhere near the best model but the pessimism here is way overblown. It's still better than the GEM, ICON, and you can't just throw out what it says
  6. LordBaltimore
    They're focusing on getting JEDI to one day work instead of tuning the old DA system. It will get better once people actually work on it
  7. LordBaltimore
    I really, really, really need this sunday to be a MECS just so I can see the look on peoples faces when the last bit of snow finally melts only to be replaced by a fresh foot the very next day
  8. LordBaltimore
    Not bad for pity snow
  9. LordBaltimore
    I would not trust the CMC on boundary layer temps at all. It's just not in the same league as the other globals
  10. LordBaltimore
    MECS is best of course but that norlun on the icon would be cool for the novelty value
  11. LordBaltimore
    For the love of God can people stop using teleconnections like this? If all that weather prediction was was matching patterns then the AI models would win every time. Ironic because the AIFS is showing the best snow right now and it takes into account like several hundred million indexes besides the PNA and NAO speaking abstractly
  12. LordBaltimore
    They do this for the same reason that chatGPT hallucinates if you don't phrase the prompt correctly. AI is very good at things like 500mb patterns that are relatively linear and confined to specific modes that have been thoroughly sampled in ERA5. It is not good at all at things that are highly nonlinear, conditional on sequences of events with a very broad phase space of possible outcomes - like the phasing of a storm or snowfall accumulations. You need information from a physical model to get that right
  13. LordBaltimore
    If BWI managed those two consecutive stretches of snowcover, I'm really curious if favored places to the northwest had a continuous 2+ month snowpack that year. It's interesting from a historical perspective b/c there's no satellite data, so there's no way to tell other than personal anecdotes
  14. LordBaltimore
    I'm amazed that there's still some semblance of a snowpack outside my window after the conditions this weekend
  15. LordBaltimore
    Just need the pack to last until 1am-ish tonight to make 3 weeks. We can do it
  16. LordBaltimore
    Down to 19 here. Wasn't expecting it to radiate like this before the torch tomorrow. nice surprise
  17. LordBaltimore
    My question is how hard is it to drive in places like this without spending 60K on truck. Could someone just stick studded tires on say a Camry and be ok up there? Low of 22 in Columbia.
  18. LordBaltimore
    verification scores on the placement of global 500mb anomalies don't mean much for events like this. None of these models are verified based on ptype
  19. LordBaltimore
    If we're talking geo-engineering for more snow then I think we should mandate people replacing furnaces with heat-pumps. Make it hot inside by extracting outdoor heat. Imagine every house in DC and Baltimore running one of those in winter. Big office buildings too. We'd get an urban cool island, it'd be snowing in downtown Baltimore rain in Towson
  20. LordBaltimore
    If there wasn't any gatekeeping this place would just be facebook with some dumb*** talking about how the weatherman got it wrong again
  21. LordBaltimore
    Lol, you'll piss off a lot of people calling it not science but I like it. What we do with modeling is built around science, it's based on pure scientific principle, but it takes human spark and ingenuity to really get to the top level. Parameters need to be tuned, ensembles need to be interpreted in a way that makes sense to the public. It's an art and a craft really, and that's cooler than a bunch of gears
  22. LordBaltimore
    It's not that simple. Like not at all, in any way. Yes, the climate is warming from human emissions, but that doesn't translate to "baroclinic boundary moves X miles north". And there's no way to even calculate a half-way semi reliable change in temperature because of various knock on effects related to clouds and patterns of heat distribution . It's not a linear equation like that.
  23. LordBaltimore
    Saw some really nice snow devils/snownados out on tridelphia lake this morning. Wish I could've got some actual pics but hands were totally numb
  24. LordBaltimore
    Euro really moderating the warmup which is a nice surprise. Snowpack till late February?
  25. LordBaltimore
    sn+ here for last 20 or so minutes. Absolutely pouring. Once again the 3am bird gets the worm! Picked up about 1/2 inch so far from this band
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