WintryMixmaster

Radar shows the moderate to heavy rates over Blount County now, not sure if any of those bands are expected to redevelop over Knox. A few more hours of the current light snow would probably get us to the forecasted 3-5" range though Temperature has dropped to 18.3 degrees since my last post just 20 minutes ago

Wind is picking up too, temperature is down to 19.2 degrees with moderate snow, oscillating between lighter and heavier

Some solid very fluffy snow falling here, a mixture of small snowflakes and larger nickel-sized ones blowing in the wind. Feels very Christmas-y! 2 inches on the ground

I feel like the timing of this storm was really lucky... with such light/moderate rates over a long period, I feel like the sun angle could've eaten a good chunk of our totals had this hit during the day even with the cold temps. But with the bulk of the remaining snow arriving for Knox County between 2 AM and noon, we should've have to worry about that (just have to worry about that sharp gradient wherever it ends up setting up shop). I think I'm going to set an alarm for 4 am or so and check back in then to see how things are progressing, the light snow has tapered to flurries in my backyard at the moment with 0.3" on the ground so far

The last HRRR has us actually getting no snow at the moment (it's still coming down lightly at my house), and building back to our side of town around 2 AM and hanging around through 2 PM, with 3-4" on top of what we already have. Which I think would put us about on schedule for the median model result for our area

I feel like I remember looking at the simulated radar last night and watching it look exactly like that, but then slowly filling in to the west and being like "I need to remind myself tomorrow not to panic and that when the ULL gets closer, the snow will pick up" ... now that I said that, watch that just end up being the cutoff haha

Growing up, I remember staying up late and watching the radar and the rain/slow line creep towards my backyard, setting an alarm for 3 am or whenever the changeover was supposed to occur, and going out to measure right beforehand. My mom (who had to get up at 6 am for work) absolutely hated it, but I had the most accurate snowfall measurement around! haha The fact that snow is more rare here actually makes it even more magical. It really feels like every second of it is special and I just want to look out the window and daydream

Yeah I think most modeling showed light snow before midnight and after 10 am or so tomorrow, and most of our accumulation came from the midnight to 10 am period. The question is, do I stay up late to see it or do I get up early? Or do I just make some more coffee and go from there? haha

Just got home from South Knoxville... definitely a snowfall gradient over the area as expected. Maybe a little over an inch there, but here in west Knox we're at about a quarter inch so far

It seems kind of like the RGEM/Canadian have come down a bit from their highs, but the other models have met them like 80% of the way there. I feel like the main inconsistent thing is how sharp is the gradient on and west/south of Knoxville. Some models like the RGEM have 3-6" back to the plateau, others like the NAM seem to have a much sharper cutoff with low totals on the Plateau and really shafting that Oak Ridge-Harriman area

The NBM also seemed to significantly lag the trends with the last storm... when Morristown put out that first call snowfall map with 7" for Knoxville despite the fact that other than the GFS, no model had shown that in multiple suites, I realized they probably just copy/pasted the NBM

Canada is trying to get our hopes up with those RGEM+CMC runs. I'd take the 3" from the GFS and run at this point though

The high res models, though at the end of their ranges, all very much dislike this storm for East Tennessee. RRFS, NAM 3k, HRW FV3, even the NAM to some extent. I don't like that so I'll choose to ignore them

If the main mechanism to provide lift is the saturated air rising under the 500 mb low and hitting the Plateau/Smokies, should we expect a more distinct area of lower snow totals up the center of the valley? The GFS has a bit of one but it ends just SW of Oak Ridge. Would a higher resolution model probably sharpen that gradient and lower totals from Knoxville northeast along the valley floor?

Is that burnt popcorn for Knoxville I smell? My warm nose can smell it in the air

What if it's the bad kind of monster, like east TN gets warm nosed somehow but Jacksonville gets a foot of snow lol

Weird how it pulled west from 12z but also went out to sea faster and ended up much worse for PA, NJ, and NY. I thought for sure it was going to crawl up the coast

These kinds of posts are great for people like me (I only have a vague idea of how to interpret the 500 mb maps, I never know what the important features are on these). Thank you!

Got about a quarter inch of snow this AM, nice to break the winter shutout!

What's your elevation? I'm on that little peninsula bounded by Sinking Creek. Pellissippi, and the TN river but at 980 feet elevation. I remember during my lurking years that my observations at my apartment in Hardin Valley were similar to yours with usually just a tick less snow, so I assumed you were maybe on a hill or in a slightly colder spot in that area

Sounds pretty similar to what I have. Definitely not purely mist now, I definitely saw a few things bounce, and a few snowflake-looking things that are blowing in the wind. Icicles starting to form on the siding of the house

I need to move to you guys' part of town because I still just mist here. Below freezing now though, standing water is starting to freeze up

At first I thought it was snow based on how it moved in the air, but it's actually a very fine mist right around 32 degrees at my house

Sorry, I should've been more clear with that post. I was trying to say that this winter (at least for Knoxville) has been as bad as it can get (I mean, you can't do worse than 0.0" with multiple winter storm setup teases) but that there's plenty of time for it to change and it just takes one storm to turn a winter from awful to amazing. I wasn't trying to imply that I think it will or won't get better, just venting frustration with how things have gone to this point. On a side note, one thing that always stood out to me about this forum from my time as a lurker is that while posters get understandably frustrated when we whiff on storms or have a bad winter, there's an appreciation for the snow that we do get however minor in amount or duration and a genuine love of meteorology. Growing up reading the accuweather forums for the NYC metro area, it was crazy how many posters acted like a whiff on a snowstorm or a mild winter meant that it would never snow again. Even if this winter does turn out to be a dud, there's always next winter and the one after that.

This really has been the worst possible winter in East Tennessee... cold/dry with high heating bills, false hope storms just barely missing our area despite a good pattern on paper, and drought conditions. My only hope is that it only takes one storm to take a winter from 0/10 to 10/10 when we live somewhere with such a low seasonal average. Winter 2023-2024 sucked outside of 1 week, but that one week was probably the most epic week of winter I'll ever experience in Knoxville