and the pattern change on the GEFS 6z...if you cycle through the temp 2m/850 anomoly..they don't ever go below normal...plenty above normal especially early...then it settles into normal to slightly above towards the end...at this point we are tracking nothing despite the amazing looks at h5...all the cold is focused out west. I am a simpleton for sure but until I see that change I know not to expect much at my location...normal temps don't cut it.