I think you are spot on when you said it doesn’t feel like a done deal yet...seems like we still have time for adjustments that might be good for some or just end it for others. Maybe 0z goes east as you said...who knows.
I still think I can get an inch or two here. I don’t think that’s unrealistic for my location west of 95. If I go to pure rain for hours then I might have to reconsider. EDIT: nevermind I looked at the GFS closer. I still think I can get 1-2 inches of rain here.
You’ll be slightly less disappointed perhaps. I’m 5 miles NW of Manassas up 619. Hopefully you are further NW. But welcome to the hood. Need to get you and Wonderdog to Atlas for a beer sometime.
I think we get a period of snow that accumulates on the grass that mixes with sleet and rain...I go over to plain rain with sleet mixed in by around dinner time and then all goes back to snow and ends by 10pm and we get 1-2 inches of slush. We initially get a watch that gets converted to a WWA tomorrow. And we hope for another event and do it all over again.
IDK we are getting close now. We don’t have to hug it but can’t ust toss anything less than favorable. Better to just toss our previous thoughts and hopes and analyze what’s coming in now while considering the sources, efficacy and biases.
Having gone to bed at 930 and just waking up to scroll back through the pbp for the 0z runs I realize what a memorable event this is shaping up to be for PA
Subtle differences but big impact. Almost doubled my snow by bringing the higher totals SE. 20 miles made a difference on the margins. No complaints here.