2/22-23 First and Final Call Forecast from the JV Team
Hopefully, the maps are pretty self-explanatory. This has been a very dynamic, tough-to-forecast storm. There have been many factors in which small changes upstream have led to large changes downstream.
The GFS has undoubtedly crushed all the other models on this storm, but it was not enough to give us the HECS we were all looking for, just missing us and slamming New England. Still, a substantial snowfall is on the table and is poised to break the curse of late-February in DMV winters.
Precipitation will start at approximately 4-5 AM, gradually increasing in intensity. This precipitation will start as cold rain for most areas, with temperatures generally around 35 to 40. As we get into the late morning hours, however, a transition to a rain/snow mix will occur before changing to all snow in the mid-afternoon. But any snow that falls before 5 PM will struggle to accumulate, due to still-marginal temperatures (between 34 and 38) and a stronger February sun angle. As we get into the nighttime hours, precipitation will ramp up as the surface gets colder, likely hovering around 32. This is due to the deepening low, which will intensify rapidly. There will be two main bands during this. A norlun trough band west of the fall line and a larger CCB band mainly east of the fall line. Both of these bands will feature a much fluffier snow at a ratio of 12:1 or more, with snowfall rates between 1-2” per hour. There will likely be a subsidence zone that receives much less than the surrounding areas due to the banding.
Precipitation should exit the area Monday morning, leaving a beautiful, clingy, late-winter-esque wet snow on the ground. We will refer to it as the slop storm that could, but New England will refer to it as the Blizzard of ‘26.
This system was extremely hard to forecast and an extreme roller coaster ride. But it’s happening soon. Thank you all for tolerating me on this journey, and let’s get buried!
