bncho

12z Euro major winter winter storm Jan 9-10, general 4-8"

Jaws at the end of the 12z GFS

IMO I like the Jan 10-13 timeframe better than Jan 5-8 just because we're more likely to have the PNA and EPO in our favor. Lots of members show big hits on each ensemble then. Jan 5-8 will be hard to get a big storm more than 6+" just because the PNA and EPO are unfavorable. The odds are stacked against us there.

JFC that 0z GFS had lots of chances but nothing worked out. The end of the GFS looked good as well. Nice pattern we're starting to enter

0z GFS is a cold rainstorm for Jan 10 but it would make a significant dent in the drought—2+" precip for most in the forum also has some back end snow C-2"

I think @RodneyS will be updating this a lot next month.

It's the GEFS at 384 hrs, but that is a very nice -EPO popping up

stormy is in quite a stormy mood

CAPE is one of the best posters here and you disparage him over nothing. take a break lol

https://x.com/bam_weather/status/2005038182279381143?s=20 Great BAM video here. Here are his main points: 1. Winter storm around Jan 4-8, specifically stating "it's gonna be a big one" and it'll "probably be an ohio valley, mid atlantic coastal" storm. 2. There will be a moderation period after the big storm 3. January 15-30 will be "cold and stormy"

I dunno if anything will happen but IMO the early-Jan pattern is kinda similar to the ones present in DCA to BOS major winter storms. +PNA looks to show up. So does a west based -NAO. And the STJ is actually alive for once, which IMO has been the piece we've been missing for the last few years. The PV is on our side of the world, so we can tap into cold air very easily. It's pretty rare we see that combo. We just need that pacific to be a little bit better and then there's real big dog potential. I'm liking this January 2026 look better than January 2025 solely because we have an STJ. Hopefully we can reel a big one in, or maybe we'll just flop on our faces after the NYD clipper lol

12z EPS and GEFS average around 2" for the first ten days of January, and we still await the even better pattern later in the month.

we are so back

surprised you pointed to the high without mentioning the fact that it's the middle of january as well lol

12z Euro is kinda close but we deal with some mixing along I-95

12z Euro has an 8-12+" snowstorm at the end of it's run. Panels loading so give it a sec.

thermals okay at best

p-type panels will come out in 4 business days lol

https://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/models/?model=era5&base=ptype&background=plain&state=states_brown&country=countries_brown&proj=conus&archive=false&run=1996010100 ERA 5 reanalysis

Which pattern would y'all rather chance? Jan 2025 or the advertised Jan 2026 and why?

Even more than you did going into Jan 2025?

NYC is so cooked they're talking about ocean effect snow

0z GFS has the NYD clipper—dusting for most of the area. IMO this should trend south (and it has over the last few model runs), and it looks glaringly similar to the 12/14/25 system. It's only 120 hours out, needs to be watched.

Philly doesn’t have the passion, half of the NYC forum is arguing, and neither have the knowledgeable posters. NE has them but if it isn’t snowing in Boston 90% don’t even bother, and the SE is just inactive. We have fostered a supportive community and we live and die together.