bncho

this is the most accurate thing ever lol but 95% of people here have no idea what sybau means lol

it's okay since it's from the most reliable, non-volatile, non-snow bias model the GFS

Total 4-8 for Baltimore, 6-10 for DC, 12+ fredricksburg south

its going to slide

southern va is getting pummeled

Part 1 snow map down below. 3-6". Whether there is a part 2 TBD

GFS is a solid whack, might be a decent two part overrunning if that next part can hit us.

that 1040 high is doing lots of work

why do we do this to ourselves

maybe u are a time traveler… u are awfully close to the true depiction

Are you a time traveler?

Now that was a cool 12z suite.

lol there's a 1043 high over ontario on the GFS (at the end)

i'll take it and run (ya ninja'd me )

I agree—interesting. Very interesting.

What are your thoughts on a +PDO for next season if an El Nino does form? Is it a likely outcome, and why/why not?

Someone mentioned to me that vortex east of James Bay could act as a 50/50 low if it continues to trend ESE. Any thoughts?

Temperatures are better.... if precip gets up here then it'll be snow.

everything that doesn't show a foot of snow over your house makes you so mad lol

January 15th has been trending better slowly. The h5 wave is deeper and slower, exactly what we want.

generally 7 isn't the best phase, but I think it actually depends on the ENSO state. I think MJO 7-8-1 are better in Ninas, and MJO 8-1-2 are better in Ninos

bc i have the username bncho dude. what do you expect from me?

funky GFS run

lol look at that stream of arctic highs

This might be a rare year where the NYC indicator of 4"+ snow in December will not work out regarding above average snowfall for NYC for the season. I'm not sure how they'll make up enough ground come spring. I would agree with @bluewave regarding the fact that there would have to be a NESIS KU for NYC to reach above average snowfall, and although the late-January pattern into early-February might look cold it's not a pattern that screams KU at all. If there's a viable pathway for NYC to reach above average snowfall I'd be intrigued as to how they get there—some of the more knowledgable posters can chime in here.