bncho

lol the end of the gfs was gonna be something

hey chuck, how do you like that 585 dm over alaska?

you won't convince ji. this is a losing battle. please stop because you are wasting your time.

Jan 15 on the GEFS looks pretty nice IMO. Strong +PNA with an -EPO trying to form. Some trace of a -NAO. I like how the trough is centered just to the west of us so suppression is less of a risk.

GFS almost showed something. I'm not ready to declare winter over just yet.

FWIW (and it's probably not worth much IMO) since 1985, the years listed below were Ninos that were preceded by double dip (20-21, 21-22, and 22-23 don't count as that's a triple dip) <0.5 PDO Ninas and/or neutrals (at or below 0*C). 09-10: DCA: 56.1" | IAD: 73.2" 02-03: DCA: 40.4" | IAD: 50.1" 97-98: DCA: 0.1" | IAD: 5.9" 86-87: DCA: 31.1" | IAD: 42.7" If we were to remove the ones that were too strong/weak to fit that 0.5-1.2 category, we're left with this. 02-03: DCA: 40.4" | IAD: 50.1" 86-87: DCA: 31.1" | IAD: 42.7" IMO it doesn't matter because we're dealing with such a small sample size but at least it's worth taking a look at. Probably belongs in the ENSO thread as well lol

Excellent analysis. I wonder why MJO 6 leans cold with -AAM… but thank you so much!

BAM WX says that January -AAM/MJO 6 analogs since 1990 favor cold for most of the central and eastern US. Whether this is 100% true is questionable, but it's still interesting to note.

just for you, ji

southernwx

from eric webb:

@Ji they fixed the GFS for you

18z GFS is EXACTLY what we need to watch out for in mid-late January.

now THAT is an SWFE

look at the end of that 18z GFS... MECS

^^Return of the King

The 12z Euro is pretty close to something for Jan 13-14. Too warm though for most places other than NYC and points NW, but it does flip over to snow on the back side for NW suburbs.

lol no more torch jan 10 onwards awful performance from the ensembles past d10 and look how it corrects in 48 hours

Models have had such a bias for warm in the east in the medium-long range that it's stupid to believe anything they say regarding warmth in the E US until it's within D5 (and even then they can shift i.e. boxing day 2025).

really starting to regret this post after the last few days

so it’s shit vs shittier lol

This is actually a decently good observation. I’d urge caution with believing the models considering how poorly they’ve performed, especially with their warm bias. Shown below are the GEFS and EPS forecast biases two weeks out over the last 90 days (courtesy of @GaWx). That’s all you need to see.

IMO its riduculous for you to have to be worried about people weenie-ing your post. i dont think you're trying to troll, you are just saying what you think. people can be in denial as much as they want lol

you know the mood is kinda cooked if mitch is the new chuck lol