bncho
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Everything posted by bncho
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The return of the elusive Nor'easter. Drought buster or bust?
bncho replied to dailylurker's topic in Mid Atlantic
12z CMC/GEM is decent for I-95 and points east, sharp cutoff for the west.
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The return of the elusive Nor'easter. Drought buster or bust?
bncho replied to dailylurker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Euro AI ensemble less aggressive with it, but still averages almost an inch.
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The return of the elusive Nor'easter. Drought buster or bust?
bncho replied to dailylurker's topic in Mid Atlantic
GEFS ensemble is probably the most west it's been.
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The return of the elusive Nor'easter. Drought buster or bust?
bncho replied to dailylurker's topic in Mid Atlantic
The 12z GFS is a hit--and a good one at that. Good signs so far.
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finally a storm thread! we're really getting warmed up for winter.
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6z GFS is just brutal.
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The 06z Euro Ensemble is a tick east, but it's very likely just noise.
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This might be the first time since winter that I stay up for model runs!
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waiting for the weenies to call this the feb 20 redux becuase of this noise
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this is probably the most active i've seen this place since march 2025
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euro ensemble gives us 30-40% for 2+" QPF!!
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let it snow in november, december, january, february, march, and april!
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it's very likely his only analog is 2013-14
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but was one of the reasons the PDO skyrocketed last winter due to the much warmer waters in Nino 1+2? I'm asking this because I'm uncertain about how hostile the PDO will be for this winter.
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nobody is, not even bluewave. it's just that anthonymm guy
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The number of operational runs that gave us 1+" of rain I can probably count on one hand. We came into this event expecting this to go out to sea, so it's a miracle that we're even talking about rain on the table. So please, enlighten me, on how this will be an Imelda redux.
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last winter makes me paranoid but careful optimism is always a decent strategy
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it's a weak correlation at -0.07, so...
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I believe you are correct. -NAO in October means it's more likely than not for +NAO in DJF.
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let it rain!
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warmer climate "folks" lol
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got a feeling this'll be similar to last winter in the way that we had no idea what was coming for us... not saying it'll snow 50 inches or even 20 for that matter but it'll be a regression towards the mean after snow droughts we've been having
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january 22-23, 2026. it's almost poetic
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actually not that bad... +1-2 with near normal precip is something i'll take
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so we still have a shot sooner or later?
