bncho

GEFS keeps continuing the west trend—great… but where the hell was that last winter?

SUMMARIZING THE 12Z SUITE Globals GFS | IAD: 2-3", DCA: 2-3", BWI: 3-5", RIC: 2-3.5" (most aggressive/best outcome forum-wide) ECWMF | IAD: 1-1.3", DCA: 1.3-1.8", BWI: 1.5-2.5", RIC: <0.5" EC-AIFS | IAD: <0.15", DCA: <0.2", BWI: <0.2", RIC: 0.2-0.5" (least agressive/worst outcome forum-wide) CMC/GEM | IAD: 0.5-1", DCA: 1-3", BWI: 2-3", RIC: 0.4-0.7" ICON | IAD: 1-1.6", DCA: 1.3-1.7", BWI: 1.3-1.6", RIC: 1.5-2.5" UKMET | IAD: <0.15", DCA <0.1", BWI: 0.3-0.8", RIC: 0.2-0.5" Ensembles GEFS | IAD: 0.8-1.2", DCA: 1.1-1.5", BWI: 1.3-1.7", RIC: 0.8-1.1" ECWMF Ens | IAD: 0.8-1", DCA: 0.9-1.1", BWI: 1-1.2", RIC: 0.9-1.1" EC-AIFS Ens | IAD: 0.4-0.7", DCA: 0.6-0.8", BWI: 0.7-0.9", RIC: 0.5-0.7" (least agressive/worst outcome forum-wide) CMCE | IAD: 0.9-1.2", DCA: 1.3-1.6", BWI: 1.6-2", RIC: 0.9-1.2" (most aggressive/best outcome forum-wide)

12z Euro AI ensemble ticks east similar to it's non-AI counterpart. 1.2" -> 0.9" -> 0.7"

Another tick east by the 12z Euro Ensemble. 1.6" -> 1.3" -> 1.0"

from what i'm reading, the last October Nor'easter was October 29 2011, where IAD got 0.2 inches of snow, and DCA got 0.1!

h this gives a winter vibe. everybody hyped for a storm in a STORM THREAD. hell yeah baby. let's reel this one in!!!!

I feel good about this one. I said that about one hundred times last winter I'm and going to die with it again.

good thing about this is that worst-case still gives us some rain

the exact opposite of Feb 19-20. The GFS won that time . Maybe it can win again?

12z CMC/GEM is decent for I-95 and points east, sharp cutoff for the west.

Euro AI ensemble less aggressive with it, but still averages almost an inch.

GEFS ensemble is probably the most west it's been.

The 12z GFS is a hit--and a good one at that. Good signs so far.

finally a storm thread! we're really getting warmed up for winter.

6z GFS is just brutal.

The 06z Euro Ensemble is a tick east, but it's very likely just noise.

This might be the first time since winter that I stay up for model runs!

waiting for the weenies to call this the feb 20 redux becuase of this noise

this is probably the most active i've seen this place since march 2025

euro ensemble gives us 30-40% for 2+" QPF!!

let it snow in november, december, january, february, march, and april!

it's very likely his only analog is 2013-14

Correct me if I'm wrong, but was one of the reasons the PDO skyrocketed last winter due to the much warmer waters in Nino 1+2? I'm asking this because I'm uncertain about how hostile the PDO will be for this winter.

nobody is, not even bluewave. it's just that anthonymm guy

The number of operational runs that gave us 1+" of rain I can probably count on one hand. We came into this event expecting this to go out to sea, so it's a miracle that we're even talking about rain on the table. So please, enlighten me, on how this will be an Imelda redux.