BarryStantonGBP

gtfih

cat5 imo is a realist

He's way too bearish NGL

Of course every day is a sunny day for this fella

That what I’m wondering I just posted a map tf It’s gonna continue to rapidly warm imo

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Central Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave interacting with a broad area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms more than 800 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions could become marginally conducive for gradual development late this weekend through early next week as the system moves westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph. By the middle of next week, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Patel/Okafor

muh cool mdr

"sToP fEaR mOnGeRiNg"

lol at that change

MDR is warming back up The nino 3.4 region has cratered back to -enso and is at its coolest since mid-May: This has been paired with significant mdr warming since mid-June: If these trends continue, it may yield another active late season. One of the talked about analogs for this season is 2001 and that year had no hurricanes until the second week of September but ultimately ended with nine and four majors.

>Average or below average INSANE cope 2019 had nothing from now until late August and ended up above average

quote from SaintCategory5Kaiju regarding Andy hazleton

I could see that happening

no wonder I have a Newfoundland landfall in my forecast

right here’s the thing mate you keep saying “mixed signals” as if that’s some badge of honour for not having an opinion just because there’s not 100% consensus on every single indicator doesn’t mean you can just sit on the fence until september and then post “i told you so” either way the only reason there’s “mixed” anything is because everyone’s copium-addicted to the composite charts instead of looking at the actual year-on-year overlays like i posted let’s talk apples to apples since you’re bringing up 2004 and 2024 as if they’re the same animal they’re not even in the same zoo 2024 was an el niño hangover year with a spring mdr lid so thick you could serve sunday roast on it the only reason it backloaded is because the mjo went ballistic in september and the canary current spat a warm anomaly into the main development region now look at the 2025 sst overlays (and yes, i posted the maps, not some coped-out composite) it’s a carbon copy of 2004 right down to the global dipoles, but with even stronger itcz support and the shear dropping earlier the “ohc is not 2024” line is classic boomer cope as well you don’t need 2024-level ohc to get majors in the atlantic—look at 2017, the majors all tracked along the mdr-warm corridor and exploded when the upper-level pattern unlocked i’ve posted the week-by-week sst and ohc maps if you wanna check your own receipts you just need enough for rapid intensification, not endless warehouse reserves if you only go bullish in literal record years you’ll never catch the true analog years before the boom you also keep hedging with “let’s see by mid-august” and “i need more data”—that’s just covering your arse so you can never be wrong you said yourself this is a +anomalous sst year with neutral enso, record-low sal, and a wind profile about to crack open from the west african monsoon if you’re “lean an” you should be bullish, period this isn’t 2013, this isn’t 2024, and if you actually look at the subtropical ssta and the evolving ohc corridor, you’ll see it’s 2017-2004 hybrid energy with even more mdr runway if the first proper wave survives also 2025 ohc > 2017 ohc according to the maps you posted innit the “do it there” line is rich considering half the takes in here are recycled from s2k and stormiest anyway just admit you’re in the camp of “nobody knows so i’ll only commit once a cat 2 is on the map” and move on some of us will keep calling it like we see it with the receipts and the week-by-week analog overlays when the wave train lights up don’t be shy to come back and say “alright, grandpa, you had a point” cheers barry out