PhiEaglesfan712

My prediction for 2024-25 ONI & RONI: AMJ 2024 ONI: +0.3; RONI: -0.45 MJJ 2024 ONI: 0.0; RONI: -0.87 JJA 2024 ONI: -0.5; RONI: -1.17 JAS 2024 ONI: -1.0; RONI: -1.42 ASO 2024 ONI: -1.4; RONI: -1.61 SON 2024 ONI: -1.5; RONI: -1.70 OND 2024 ONI: -1.4; RONI: -1.70 NDJ 2024-25 ONI: -1.4; RONI: -1.65 DJF 2024-25 ONI: -1.3; RONI: -1.53 JFM 2025 ONI: -1.1; RONI: -1.24 FMA 2025 ONI: -0.9; RONI: -1.00

MAM ONI (NOAA): + 0.7C Best analog: 1988 (-3 months) JJA 1987: +1.6 -> SON 2023: +1.6 JAS 1987: +1.7 -> OND 2023: +1.7 ASO 1987: +1.8 -> NDJ 2023-24: +1.8 SON 1987: +1.7 -> DJF 2023-24: +1.7 OND 1987: +1.4 -> JFM 2024: +1.5 (NOAA) NDJ 1987-88: +1.1 -> FMA 2024: +1.1 (NOAA) DJF 1987-88: +0.7 -> MAM 2024: +0.7 (NOAA) MAM RONI: + 0.11C Best analog: 2010 NDJ 2009 1.57 DJF 2010 1.45 JFM 2010 1.09 FMA 2010 0.62 MAM 2010 0.07 NDJ 2023 1.47 DJF 2024 1.21 JFM 2024 0.86 FMA 2024 0.48 MAM 2024 0.11

I figured that it would be performing ahead of 1998 at this time, as that was a stronger nino that dissipated later. However, the fact that it is performing ahead of 2010 suggests this is going to be a strong la nina. Remember, the 2009-10 el nino peaked lower than 2023-24 (at least on the ONI).

Spring 2024 at PHL ends up at 57.1F, which replaces Spring 2022 as the 6th warmest spring on record. It also brings up the average spring temps for the 2020s to 55.69F, which pushes it past the 2010s: 1890s - 51.84 1900s - 52.51 1910s - 52.98 1920s - 53.23 1930s - 53.18 1940s - 52.81 1950s - 52.83 1960s - 51.31 1970s - 53.16 1980s - 52.89 1990s - 53.85 2000s - 54.17 2010s - 55.38 2020s - 55.69 (through 2024)

Don't forget that the El Nino (which started in 1986) dissipated much earlier in 1988 than this year. The extra 3 months allowed the 1988-89 to develop into that strength. The La Nina strength was already at -1.4 by MJJ in 1988 and hovered in that -1.4/-1.5 range until ASO, before deepening in strength. If we shift that 3 months forward, then we'd be getting into the -1.4 in ASO, and hover around there through NDJ, but by this point, most La Ninas have reached their peaks. It's going to be interesting to see if the RONI converges back towards the ONI. If not, the 1973-74 and 1988-89 values for the RONI could be breached. My guess is that 2024-25 ends up being a moderate la nina on the NOAA ONI (not meeting the criteria of 3-trimonthlys of -1.5C), and a strong la nina on the Eric Webb Ensemble ONI.

I still like the 1988 (-3 months) analog on the ONI until NDJ 2024-25. I think we're going to peak at -1.4 or -1.5C in ASO 2024 through NDJ 2024-25.

It's possible. The storm just needs to continue with its slight north trajectory. This is the current radar:

I get the feeling 2024-25 is going to be a below average temperature winter. We are just well overdue for one. The last one that came below normal was at PHL was in 2014-15, which is going to be ten years ago. We came close in 2017-18 (the first half of that winter was very cold), but February was well above average, pushing that winter to an above average temperature finish.

1975-76 was the opposite of this year. That one was considered a strong la nina by the NOAA ONI (peaked at -1.7), while the RONI only peaked at -1.14 1976 clearly marked the transion from a la nina state (which began in 1949-50) to an el nino state. The question is whether this current la nina state started in 1998, 2005, or 2007. If it started in 1998, then the la nina state should be coming to an end soon. If in 2007, we might have another decade before we transition back into an el nino state.

I was in grade school when Windows 95 and 98 came out. That was peak Microsoft.

For starters, I think we can throw out 1949-50. That one came after several enso neutral seasons (1946-47 is the only one in the previous 5 years that resembled an el nino, but that was very weak and very short). 1949-50 is the last first year la nina that didn't result from an el nino transition. I don't like the 2020-21 analog either. The preceding el nino (which started in 2018) was weak, and 2019-20 was a unicorn season that hovered around 0.4 or 0.5 until it dissipated (this hasn't happened in over 75; the aforementioned 1946-47 comes the closest). 1970-71 and 2007-08 can be okay analogs. The only thing is the el nino of those preceding years was weak. I guess 1970-71 could pass if you consider the first year of the preceding el nino (1968-69) was moderate. This leaves 1998-99 and 2010-11 as the best of the six analogs on the list. I'd replace 1949-50 and 2020-21 with 1973-74 and 1988-89. My list of six best analogs, at this point, would be 1970-71, 1973-74, 1988-89, 1998-99, 2007-08, and 2010-11.

That is correct. The only broods that are in this part of the country are II and X. Brood II last emerged in 2013, and will do so again in 2030. Brood X last emerged in 2021 and will do so again in 2038.

I think the 3-month head start helped in getting the 1988-89 La Nina that strong. If we applied the 1988 (-3 months) ONI values to 2024, things get interesting: JJA 1987: +1.6 -> SON 2023: +1.6 JAS 1987: +1.7 -> OND 2023: +1.7 ASO 1987: +1.8 -> NDJ 2023-24: +1.8 SON 1987: +1.7 -> DJF 2023-24: +1.7 OND 1987: +1.4 -> JFM 2024: +1.5 (NOAA) NDJ 1987-88: +1.1 -> FMA 2024: +1.1 (NOAA) DJF 1987-88: +0.7 -> MAM 2024? JFM 1988: +0.3 -> AMJ 2024? FMA 1988: 0.0 -> MJJ 2024? MAM 1988: -0.5 -> JJA 2024? AMJ 1988: -1.0 -> JAS 2024? MJJ 1988: -1.4 -> ASO 2024? JJA 1988: -1.5 -> SON 2024? JAS 1988: -1.4 -> OND 2024? ASO 1988: -1.5 -> NDJ 2024-25? SON 1988: -1.7 -> DJF 2024-25? The ONI got down to -2.1 in OND 1988 and NDJ 1989. I can't see that trend continuing to JFM and FMA, as the la nina should have peaked by then. I think we get a strong la nina that peaks in the -1.5 to -1.7 range in winter.

1986-87 - This one continued into a strong el nino in 1987-88. Transition year was 1988, and 1988-89 was a historically strong la nina. I'd definitely keep 1988 as a top analog year for 2024. (The only difference is that the el nino peaked earlier in the season, but everything else from 1988 lines up with 2024.) 1952-53 - This one was a disjointed el nino over 3 years (1951-54). 1951-52 was a moderate el nino, while 1952-53 and 1953-54 were weak el ninos. Transition year was 1954, and 1955-56 was the strong la nina year, following a weak la nina in 1954-55. This isn't a good analog. 1979-80 - This one was a weak el nino, but there is no la nina anywhere to be found... Again, no analog here.

Yes, 1973 and 1998 are the only years that have transitioned from super el nino to strong la nina. Two other years, 1988 and 2010, transitioned from strong el nino to strong la nina (2024 would fit this category, since 2023-24 was a consensus strong el nino, rather than a super el nino).

The FMA numbers from NOAA are in. 2010 is still the best analog year for the RONI. NDJ 2009 1.57 DJF 2010 1.45 JFM 2010 1.09 FMA 2010 0.62 OND 2023 1.49 NDJ 2023 1.47 DJF 2024 1.21 JFM 2024 0.85 FMA 2024 0.48

New record high of 90F at PHL today. This makes April 24 the new latest day with a sub-90 record high.

I like 2010 as the analog year for May and the summer. I think after the mid-month cool down, we'll see well above average temperatures the final third of May and will be the prevalent theme throughout most of the summer.

Devils fan here. Don't be too confident about the Flyers making the playoffs next year. I learned this the hard way. After last season, I assumed we were going to take the next step and contend for the Stanley Cup this year. Instead, we got a regression this year. I'm not saying this will happen to the Flyers next year, but they've overachieved this year (like the Devils did last year), so it's possible they could step back next year instead of taking the leap forward to the playoffs.

Here is the analysis for PHL during the same period. The 2010s, on the strength of the first 3 years (2010-2012) broke the record by over one degree from the previous decade. The 2020s are on pace to break that record. 1890s - 51.84 1900s - 52.51 1910s - 52.98 1920s - 53.23 1930s - 53.18 1940s - 52.81 1950s - 52.83 1960s - 51.31 1970s - 53.16 1980s - 52.89 1990s - 53.85 2000s - 54.17 2010s - 55.38 2020s - 55.34 (this will likely increase after 2024) Long term average: 53.16

lol, I don't know what cold spring you're talking about because this one has been several degrees above average. 1996 and 1997 were actual cold springs, not this one. Besides, we're going to get another 80+ degree day on Monday.