Looking over models at 500 and at surface. I don't think many realize how close we were to a mecs. Look at nam 12k for example. That north vort now phases in late and you have a bombing low the second it gets off shore.
From what I under stand that north vort is what is killing off the moisture. We Keep weaking and getting that north vort out the way. The better our chances at at 1-3/2-4 event.
I could be wrong but these type of storms seem to always come more north than forecasted. 4" is my guess for my area but would love to see a PHL jackpot.
so im no expert but looks like we need this to phase with the northern stream for us to have any shot at all. Although warm and amped CMC shows you what can happen with a phased system. Euro just misses the phase while GFS misses it all together.