Krs4Lfe

Aside from that it seems like Spring has sprung for most of the country and I think we’re on borrowed time for any wintry weather. GFS was showing insane cold yesterday but considering I haven’t seen that posted anywhere, I assume it’s not being shown anymore.

Not much to say about the long range model runs last night. Rain at the end of next week as a storm moves through the area. Then it looks like some colder than average weather gets stuck over the East but not much in the way or precip. CONUS looks pretty inactive as well, as spring like weather returns to the West and Central US. East US appears to be only place that will have some colder weather for the foreseeable future. Without any storms moving through though, the chance for any snow in March is next to zero. I think that’s all for this winter folks.

Hasn't been our year since 2021. Something has gone awry this decade. I think what Bluewave says about record warm SSTs in North Pacific is leading to a stronger Pac Jet and faster Northern stream. As favorable as the North Atlantic might be, we need the pacific and northern stream to slow down. Until then, there will be no KUs, and we won't reach above average snowfall.

Sure, next year maybe.

Sort of. I just have a feeling it'll trend badly like it always seems to

I'll never understand the constant hyping for cold and snow (or any extremes of that nature) that those two do on social media. It trickles down to weather boards and forums as well. Not in any way that is intentionally malicious, but the amount of times we've seen pretty Day 15 OPS or Ensembles posted on here, just for them to not verify *imagine the shock there*. And then we sit back and do :/ how did that happen, as if we haven't been doing that since 2019, knowing they probably won't verify (with the exception of 2021 winter and January 2022).

I think we can all discount the 12z GFS, showing a lobe of the TPV descending onto the Northeast at the end of next week. Likely, that would lead to a stormier regime as well, but the more Ryan Maue is discussing it online, the less it'll likely occur. I would expect highs to be consistently around 50 degrees by next weekend. Not too far off from when we usually have our first 50s but I'd expect the 12z GFS to snap back to reality by the next run. 12z CMC and 12z Euro show no precip over next 7 days and mild temperatures. Good news is that there's plenty of cold bottled up in Canada and northern tier so maybe some of that can spill down our way when we would need it in order for it snow in March

On a side note, I wonder how much we ever stop and appreciate that this forum has been around since late 2010, and has active discussion about storms leading up the event, observations during the event, and then post-event analysis for almost every weather event that has happened in CONUS since late 2010. This has to be the only site like that. There are sub-forums that encompass the whole country (even though the Tennessee River Valley and West forum aren’t that active). Just like a treasure trove of model runs, forecasts, and observations as they happen in real time. I wonder if this site will become a historical marker one day ?

One thing that I find of note and at the moment is the only thing to note is that there is a very big pool of cold air buildup across the northern tier of the US and Canada. So even though it looks like spring to begin March if we have a timely injection of cold air combined with some storm coming from northern Stream or a SW, then we might be able to see a marginal event in March. However, I wouldn’t count on that considering the way this winter has gone. I think it most likely a shutdown from here on out.

I hope March is similar. We get enough warmth April to September. I want cold, dark, windy winters

Well, at some point there was going to be a thaw over here after three months of below average temperatures, regardless of whether it accompanied a big storm or not but ideally what we would want is for a cold regime to redevelop for the rest of March and give us a chance at some snow considering March is a warmer month. It’s pretty much impossible for it to snow with the average temperatures.

Does it look like the pattern is active across CONUS? because if the pattern is still active across the country with an injection of cold air maybe something can work out for these parts but without that activity across the country which has been lacking for much of the winter it’s hard to get something over here

Normally I wouldn’t say that but this winter has shown its cards. And there’s no doubting the pattern regression after this storm. Looking at the long range looks like nothing but mild temps for these parts, looks pretty inactive nationwide actually

When do we throw the white flag in and say that it’s not going to snow here for this one? What an incredible letdown this was, compounded by pattern regression for the rest of winter. I think yesterday was last time NYC probably sees anything measurable for rest of season

We will. You know we will. Can this finally make us stop posting 360 hour pattern depictions and saying every pattern looks like 2014 or 2015? We’re going right to spring after next week, you can tell by the lack of posts about the future pattern. If it looked somewhat good, we would have seen the usual hype already

That’s all the background state supported. Rule of thumb, if you don’t see a big storm by late January, you probably won’t see one all season. The two systems in early Jan that hit mid Atlantic were suppressed, and then the south cashed in, and then we have had a few slop storms. Why bet against the way this winter has gone, just because of pretty looking storm maps? I think everyone learned their lesson after this one

Storms will oftentimes “come back” on modeling when there’s an impetus to. Jan 2016 was one of the biggest examples of that. In that case, the confluence was just being depicted too strongly. But here, the ULL continues to be depicted too far east and running out ahead of the SW, kicking it off the shore without gaining latitude. Unless that ULL aligns with the SW, there will be minimal impacts for anyone in the Northeast, if any snow at all. Considering we are 3 days away from the “storm” we have sufficiently run out of time.

Maybe some increased clouds Wednesday night. Otherwise there’s no event

Yeah the midatlantic forum is the best at analysis but maybe that’s because they’ve been getting the goods this winter lol. New England forum is like the Wild West, probably because they’re still waiting for a big one also. But here, we’ve been wedged in between some decent snow to our north and snow to our south. But I could see yesterday being our last snow of the season. Cold looks to break down quickly in late Feb, and going into March, we would need that cold to help us out

Pattern never supported a big one. The ULL is just too far east. This is what happens when you fall for pretty Storm maps instead of realizing that the base state doesn’t support one. It’s a shame, it fools even the best among us

What sucks the most about this storm going OTS is that It was probably our last chance for snow for the rest of winter. March looking nice and toasty. 3 months of cold and all we get is 12” from it. No wonder the warmer seasons of 2024 and 2023 has almost nothing.

Yeah JB gets it disastrously wrong. Good metrologies but I feel like something has changed with him over the past 5 years

This is what happens when we do modelology instead of meteorology. we can post all these pretty maps of good pattern depictions and of storms that deep down we know won’t come to fruition because the base state of the winter and the upper level patterns and do not support it, but we all want clicks and we all want to look at something that looks nice while abandoning all reasoning about while this winter has performed poorly at least in the snow department for our sub forum. and why it will continue to do so because the background state has not changed and we are looking at quick pattern regression in late month and early March after the storm threat passes. Pretty model depictions and depictions of storms aren’t gonna cut it. That is modelology not meteorology and that’s all we’ve been doing since 2022

Pattern regression after Mid-Feb, just like we saw last year. Rest assured, when you don't see pattern maps being posted here, it's because they're not good. Otherwise we would have seen "buckle up" "get ready" or "it's coming." Even though NYC only had 2-3" the past week despite the multiple waves and systems. SnowGoose has been spot on

The worst thing is that we go right to Spring in the beginning of March, Our "great looking pattern" that "only begins in mid-Feb with lots of opportunities" is one southern slider storm, no storm at end of month like the pattern hinted at, and then Spring comes beginning of March (which is the best opportunity in March for snow because average temps are still somewhat cold enough.) It's a repeat of the pattern from late Feb 2024, March 2022, and late Feb-March 2023. I'm not sure why we thought this would be any different? Because a 360 hour map shows a trough in the east and ridge in the west? No way to slice this, our coldest winter in years ended up bringing 12" only to NYC. Snowfall wise it's barely better than last year. But yeah lets say "this pattern reminds me of 2013-14" again.