Krs4Lfe

This storm reminds me a bit of the early January 2022 snow event. That one was more wide-reaching of course, but 3-5" of snow expected, but NYC ended up with 5-8", a fluffy snow because the temperature was around 31 for most of the event, and it was a complete nighttime event. Not expecting anywhere near 5-8" with this one, and we're also starting out a bit warmer with temps in upper 30s, so I'd expect some white rain in the beginning.

That seems unlikely unless we start off above freezing mark. Some of the more amped model show freezing line running right through NYC and Long Island during the event, so I guess this will be like a pasty snow, not fluffy

The craziest thing is that before 2020 I would have laughed at a statement like this. But after the near complete shutouts in 2020 and 2023, something like this could actually happen.

Looking more like a whiff at the moment. In the past, these snow bands have set up further north than modeled, but that's when there was a more negative tilt which would allow bands to often move further north than modeled. Can't do that hear due to the fast flow

Yeah, that one is absolutely ridiculous because they were two instances in February 2024 we’re almost every single surrounding place recorded at least 4 inches of snow, including JFK, which received around 8 inches of snow in that surprise snow band that’s set up in mid February 2024. However, the snowstorm that was earlier that month had all places around Central Park receiving at least 5 inches of snow and somehow Central Park just below 4 inches. Even last year around the MLK day snow event, all other recording sites and most areas nearby were able to just reach 4 inches if I’m not mistaken. Somehow Central Park always comes up short

It’s truly crazy. I can’t think of any other way to describe it. Thinking we might very likely be shut out of snow here this month. That is likely a terrible sign for the rest of the winter. It was actually cold enough to snow this month, it just couldn’t happen though. Always need a bit of luck down here on the coast. But each year that we don’t get a KU, we need more and more luck to get something because of how much the base state has warmed. The 2010s winters feel like ages ago now

If I am not mistaken, I believe MJO phase 5 is the worst for cold and wintry weather

Hopefully New York City can sneak in 4 inches of snow by the end of the month although that is looking increasingly unlikely especially with the big warm-up coming after the 20th. Statistics don’t lie and Decembers that usually feature at least 4 inches of snow in New York City have a high chance of producing average or above average snowfall for the rest of the season. Central Parks measuring has been consistently terrible over the past few years even more so then it had been in the past so I wouldn’t be surprised if they barely record an inch from the snow that is coming on Sunday.

Midwest is getting more heavy snow through this weekend. Clipper moving in tonight, and then another snowstorm that's in Montana/the Northwest tonight moving in through this weekend. It's good to see snow to our north, west, and south. Winter definitely off to a good start for much of the northern tier. Hopefully we get ours this weekend and then we can reset later this month and start off January strong. I'm just concerned about torching late month and then that lasting through January like December 2022. Lots of similarities that month.

When do you think this fast Pacific flow pattern will ease up a bit? Back in the 2010s, there used to be bowling balls traversing the US when there was this much cold air. Now; we’re stuck with clippers. Only have had to shovel snow a handful of times since 2020.

So basically the models that actually matter are light snow at best

Verbatim based on those temperature anomaly maps New York City is pretty much right around average on December 26, while the rest of the country is torching. The craziest statistic is what you just mentioned above is where places down south that are running up to 8° below normal this month could finish close to average because much of the country will be in spring like warmth during Christmas week. Reminds me a lot of December 2022 colder than normal month overall a big-time arctic freeze a few big storms across the north US and then after Christmas, we torched right through right through New Year’s and through the rest of January.

The models are really not backing down with the warmth after the 20th. Not enough to offset the cold we’ve had so far but yikes that’s a pretty warm Christmas week

Sometimes it seems hard to envision a sharp weather pattern change when you’re in a totally opposite pattern at the moment. I remember how cold December 2022 was, especially during Christmastime but then we had straight 50s and 60 degrees right through new year. Patterns can flip on a dime, for better or for worse. The cold has been quite enjoyable but we all know it can’t last forever. It would be a bit unreasonable to believe January won’t at least start out warm. Maybe it doesn’t end up that way in the end, but very likely it ends up warm just by the sheer nature of this cold pattern can’t stick around forever

Looking less and less likely that this will be a “plowable” snowfall. Looks like a minor event at best. Maybe when the cold air relaxes we can get something larger. But then again it’ll probably be too warm to snow

And pursuant to the name of your account, central park under measures everything so I doubt this would get anywhere near 4”

The only question remains: can we get 4” of snow at NYC before then? If we see a shutout for this month given how cold this month has been, that’s a big yikes

I think it would be a lot better if we saw *something* here this month. Ideally, if NYC saw 4”+ we would Be in ok shape because 4” is the magic number. That being said, lots of signs for a warm up after rhe 20th

Unfortunately, in this fast flow pattern that has been dominant since 2019, I doubt storms will pop up out of nowhere. I think if there’s enough storminess around, one will come our way.

Yeah once we ended up getting 0” that month after a great pattern, and January was warm and a shutout; I knew we were in for one of the least snow winters ever.

Things are looking rather ugly later in the month. Looks like we lose the cold real quickly around the 20th or so. If we’re going to see snow for rest of month it should be in that period. La Ninas are notorious for torches in January and February. Not seeing any signs of anything different this time around. I could even seen a December 2022 repeat. Great pattern but 0 snow. The worst of the worst

Yeah at some point this cold air will have to ease up. Very few winters have almost wall to wall cold. And in this climate, it’s nearly impossible. All the more reason to capitalize on the cold now and get some snow

They can, and when they do pop up, I think we know what areas will receive snow, and it likely won't be here. Winter has shown its cards, a continuation of a suppressed, hugger, or cutter pattern that has existed for the past 7 years (exception being 2021 and 2022). It's unfortunate, and at some point I'm sure we'll see some snow. But this is eerily similar to December 2022. Colder than normal, great looking pattern, and snow everywhere except for our region. And in a La Nina, if we have below average snow in December, it likely extends to rest of winter as well.

The worst part is that in our ever warming climate it is increasingly difficult to have a colder than an average month, especially during the winter. However, over the past few years every time we have a colder than average month it is mainly cold and dry, and we barely have any snow in this region. Our bad luck just won’t run out.

Just in time for a mid month warmup, as was a bit expected, but hopefully it doesn’t become like the infamous December 2023 jet extension where we roasted for the rest of the month