AccuChris

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37° here in Lebanon and fog. Temp likely will spike some when the front and line comes through but I doubt it spike into the 50s around here .

Lets not forget, the GFS and Euro Ensembles 7-10 days ago were run-after-run showing an onslaught of snowstorms and a widespread 25”-40” of snow cover throughout the entire area from last weekend through next weekend. If this week is a dud, it would be an incredible bust on multiple ensemble systems for February. For me in Lebanon, I am at about 3” of snow since February 7th .

0z ICON is wide right .

Cant hate this hour 84 on the NAM .

Some modest changes on the 0z NAM so far through hour 72. More ejection in the Rockies, slightly better height rises in the TN Valley with more southwesterly flow at 500mb .

The latest from JB to add to the debate/discussion .

When do you ever want to be in the jackpot on Days 4-5? Lets give it another 48 hours before we give up .

Its both really and their interaction together gumming up the works .

Its all about that lobe on your graphic over MN and IA. Its holding back and keeping it positively tilted. If that kicks down it changes the whole configuration and the storm is blowing up over the southern mid-atlantic states .

GFS is just a wave that keeps getting pushed along by the northern branch. Need phasing, a capture and deepening. At this point, I dont trust anything beyond hour 72 honestly .

Yes, the 500mb on 18z is way different than on the 12z. Very volatile situation .

To me, the whole key is the northern energy rounding the western periphery of the Plains high diving into the southern branch shortwave and driving the trough neutral to negative and forcing height rises along the east coast. If they stay separate and the southern stream sprints off then you get what the GFS was showing. If it all bundles then you get the epic solutions of the Euro and GEM had been showing .

Not saying the outcome will be ultimately like this but there are SOME similarities to next weeks set up and the Blizzard of ‘96. Or note, the 3-6 day models all struggled initially with the storm and many had the storm heading out to sea and sparring NYC northeastward. There was strong high pressure over New England and the Northern Plains and ejecting energy out of the southwest with low pressure that developed over the Gulf States. That storm never went below 982mb but had a perfect phase and closing off of the upper and mid-levels. Ironically, its surface maps look similar to what the models (the runs that really go wild) are depicting next week. .

Total snow in Lebanon 2” and just went to sleet. Temp 31° .

1” of snow in Lebanon now with moderate snow continuing .

12z Euro took a step south and east like the GEM. Long way to go .

Here you go .

Thats a real beauty there .

12z UKMET looks textbook Miller A blizzard .

Of course GFS starts coming around and the most-amped GEM took a slide the other way lol. Models will waggle around for a couple more days no doubt .

GFS much better obviously for next week but its not done correcting yet. Big step .

Here, fixed it. GFS made a major trend towards the GEM/Euro just now. It should continue to correct as it still has feedback issues and true SLP location issues .

12z GFS hour 108 looks better than the 6z. More energy hanging back and bundled, better negative tilt .

Its struggle (assuming its wrong with its solutions), is what it always struggles with in phasing systems…string out the energy and hand off the southern stream way out in front via feedback and the whole thing cant bundle. This is the first time in a long while we are actually looking at a potential Miller A full phase system so yes, lots can go wrong and thats why we dont get “the big one” often. This is tricky as it all needs to line up versus just some massive southern branch over-running feature attacking a cold high. This is “big risk-big reward”. We may not get a true consensus until 12z Monday honestly .