AccuChris

Not saying the outcome will be ultimately like this but there are SOME similarities to next weeks set up and the Blizzard of ‘96. Or note, the 3-6 day models all struggled initially with the storm and many had the storm heading out to sea and sparring NYC northeastward. There was strong high pressure over New England and the Northern Plains and ejecting energy out of the southwest with low pressure that developed over the Gulf States. That storm never went below 982mb but had a perfect phase and closing off of the upper and mid-levels. Ironically, its surface maps look similar to what the models (the runs that really go wild) are depicting next week. .

Total snow in Lebanon 2” and just went to sleet. Temp 31° .

1” of snow in Lebanon now with moderate snow continuing .

12z Euro took a step south and east like the GEM. Long way to go .

Here you go .

Thats a real beauty there .

12z UKMET looks textbook Miller A blizzard .

Of course GFS starts coming around and the most-amped GEM took a slide the other way lol. Models will waggle around for a couple more days no doubt .

GFS much better obviously for next week but its not done correcting yet. Big step .

Here, fixed it. GFS made a major trend towards the GEM/Euro just now. It should continue to correct as it still has feedback issues and true SLP location issues .

12z GFS hour 108 looks better than the 6z. More energy hanging back and bundled, better negative tilt .

Its struggle (assuming its wrong with its solutions), is what it always struggles with in phasing systems…string out the energy and hand off the southern stream way out in front via feedback and the whole thing cant bundle. This is the first time in a long while we are actually looking at a potential Miller A full phase system so yes, lots can go wrong and thats why we dont get “the big one” often. This is tricky as it all needs to line up versus just some massive southern branch over-running feature attacking a cold high. This is “big risk-big reward”. We may not get a true consensus until 12z Monday honestly .

Lets see if the GFS starts trending towards the Euro today. ICON and 6z Euro AI were good starts .

6z Euro AI has shifted slightly west compared to 0z and even more so compared to the way out to sea runs previously. Baby steps .

18z Euro still “all in” on major storm next week .

Here you go .

12z Euro tucked and loaded for next week .

12z ICON fairly wound up for next weeks potential .

Moderate snow presently in Lebanon. Temp 31° Sun angle keeping roads wet [emoji2957] .

I lied; it was still at 6z. Disregard. Down everywhere .

So far, 12z Euro wants none of it with regards to any front end snow Saturday, keeps the primary wound up and west of the mountains and pops temps close to 60° Sunday .

Picked up 1” overnight in Lebanon .

Well stated. I know a lot of people want the weekend system to cut to allow more height rises next week for a more bundled system but we cannot keep kicking the can down the road waiting for “the big one”. Lets not forget a week ago the models were jumping on this weekend as the possible “big one” and now its next week. Even this current event was supposed to be much more impactful for our area and clearly it is not. I would love for this weekends event to dump a moderate amount on Saturday and have the frontal zone more towards the east coast and cut off the warm nose to our east and let the new low ride the boundary into the coastal plain. Euro is not there yet but plenty other models are starting to hint at it .

Well, f*ck me I guess .

Light flurries have commenced near Lebanon .