.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
...Heat Advisories May Be Needed for Much of this Period...
An upper level ridge will push eastward this period, pushing 850 hPa
temperatures of +18 to +21C across our region. However, with the
westerly flow aloft, and no deep southerly flow transporting Gulf of
Mexico moisture northward...moisture will not increase dramatically
and PWATS through much of the period range from 1.0 to 1.5 inches.
This moisture (PWATs just over 1.5 inches) and surface dewpoints
will peak Tuesday night and Wednesday ahead of a shortwave trough.
Surface temperatures will build with mid 80s to lower 90s common
through the period. With the drying ground it is not out of the
question that we could see some mid 90s...especially in the Genesee
Valley where winds will downslope. Though hot, moderate levels of
humidity will hold back apparent temperatures early in the
week...and not until mid-week as surface moisture increases that we
may near heat advisory levels (95F). Nighttime temperatures will
provide little relief either as they remain in the low 70s in most
locations.
Have aimed above most guidance packages for temps...staying in the
upper quartile of packages.