BuffaloWeather

Just got home from work, going to chase!

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Cattaraugus County in western New York... Southern Erie County in western New York... Northeastern Chautauqua County in western New York... * Until 445 PM EDT.. * At 406 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Silver Creek, or 8 miles east of Dunkirk, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Greatest risk for strong to severe storms still likely in time range from mid afternoon into early this evening. Strong winds aloft tied to the MCV results in effective shear over 40 kts which is strong for middle of summer with low-level shear 25-30+kts also strong. The shear combined with seasonable instability (highs in the mid 80s with dewpoints in the mid 60s) with MLCAPES 1000-1500j/kg and DCAPES to around 1000j/kg sets the stage for storms with damaging winds the primary threat, but not the only threat. Within slight risk over WNY, SPC probs have WNY in a 5 pct risk for tornado (increased from ydy) which is pretty rare for our severe weather season. Looking at parameters specific to forecasting tornado potential (STP, LCL, effective helicity) we are looking to be on the high end for past tornado days in WNY. Continue to mention this risk in the HWO. It certainly looks justified. Best potential will be mid to late afternoon as storms will initially be discrete with possible supercells. Eventually though given the strong 0-1km shear and the approaching front, storms should become linear as they move east toward Genesee valley and perhaps western Finger Lakes/SE Lake Ontario region with gusty to damaging winds the prime threat. Finally, torrential downpours will be likely in any storm as PWATS surge to over 2 inches. Storms will be moving, so would likely need to have training storms for larger flooding risk.

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Cattaraugus County in western New York... Southwestern Erie County in western New York... Northeastern Chautauqua County in western New York... * Until 445 PM EDT.. * At 351 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Dunkirk, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

3K is less impressive, decent storm into northern Erie

Yeah, has been raining here all morning. Cells just keep popping up. It's actually chilly outside. Not the environment for strong storms this afternoon.

...Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Expected This Afternoon... While some showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the western counties later this morning and during the midday...the ingredients will come together for strong to severe thunderstorms later this afternoon into the evening hours. The greatest severe weather threat will come from damaging wind gusts, although there will be the risk for tornadic activity...particularly across the Southern Tier and western Finger Lakes region.

We really want full sunshine until this afternoon. These smalls storms might mess up this afternoons potential.

Yeah full cloud cover here. Not looking good.

Definitely rare! 3k shows a nice line of storms.

My buddy took his test on the 7th with no results yet. Just texted him and results are taking up to 2 weeks. He started showing symptoms after going to a July 4th party. Lives in San Diego.

SPC discussion: There is some concern that this precipitation and/or cloud debris may limit diurnal destabilization across eastern OH into parts of western PA/NY. Regardless, modestly enhanced (30-40 kt) mid-level flow coupled with even weak destabilization along/ahead of the front should prove sufficient for storm organization by early Thursday afternoon. Multicells and small bowing line segments should be the primary storm mode given the linear nature of the low-level forcing mechanism (front), but an embedded supercell or two cannot be ruled out with 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear expected. Strong to damaging winds should be the main threat as low-level lapse rates modestly steepen ahead of the morning storms/clouds. Some enhancement to the low-level flow suggests a brief tornado cannot be ruled out either, mainly across eastern OH and western PA/NY vicinity. These strong to severe storms should quickly weaken into central PA/NY by Thursday evening as low-level moisture and related instability decrease with eastward extent.

MCV associated with current convection over Illinois will push a series of weak fronts through our region on Thursday...and this will lead to some showers and strong to severe storms. Damaging wind gusts main threat...but backing winds blo 4kft could provide enough shear for isolated tornado. MOST prone time for severe weather will be from 2 PM til 10 PM Thursday...although its possible that convection could be problematic before that time. Far western New York remains in a slight risk area as defined by the Storm Prediction Center... with the remainder of the forecast area in a marginal risk area for severe weather. Strong convection Thursday evening weakens to scattered showers overnight.

Hit 88 degrees here today.

Cool website to keep track of all the vaccines and their stages. The 2 more promising. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html A vaccine in development by the British-Swedish company AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford is based on a chimpanzee adenovirus called ChAdOx1. The vaccine is in a Phase II/III trial in England and Phase III trials in Brazil and South Africa. The project may deliver emergency vaccines by October. In June, AstraZeneca said their total manufacturing capacity stands at two billion doses. Moderna was the first American company to put a vaccine into human trials.The vaccine uses messenger RNA (mRNA for short) to produce viral proteins. Moderna published promising Phase I results on July 14. Phase III trials are set to begin July 27, and the company hopes to have vaccine doses ready by early 2021.

Cool website to keep track of all the vaccines and their stages. The 2 more promising. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html A vaccine in development by the British-Swedish company AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford is based on a chimpanzee adenovirus called ChAdOx1. The vaccine is in a Phase II/III trial in England and Phase III trials in Brazil and South Africa. The project may deliver emergency vaccines by October. In June, AstraZeneca said their total manufacturing capacity stands at two billion doses. Moderna was the first American company to put a vaccine into human trials.The vaccine uses messenger RNA (mRNA for short) to produce viral proteins. Moderna published promising Phase I results on July 14. Phase III trials are set to begin July 27, and the company hopes to have vaccine doses ready by early 2021.

Really nice cell across Erie County

AVERAGE MONTHLY: 78.8 DPTR FM NORMAL: 8.1 Still on pace for warmest July on record Top 10 warmest Julys 1 76.2 1921 2 76.0 1955 3 75.5 2012 4 75.3 2011 5 75.0 2005 6 75.0 1887 7 74.8 1988 8 74.7 1916 9 74.4 2018 10 74.3 1999

Pretty big vaccine news today. Going into final testing phase. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-vaccine-moderna-final-phase-testing/

It drives me insane when people say that the weatherman are always wrong. "It's the only job in the world where you can be wrong all the time, and still keep your job". I always defend them, but literally 95% of people believe this.

This is what everyone is talking about. On their Facebook page. Misleading title “A tornado in Western New York tomorrow!!! The weather could get nuts by tomorrow afternoon.” https://wyrk.com/an-isolated-tornado-is-possible-on-thursday-in-wny/

I agree, but we've had a couple 5% days in WNY last few years.

Very few people don't wear masks here. It's virtually a way of life now.

Huge news, looks extremely promising! https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-vaccine-moderna-testing-final-phase/ https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-news-today-index-reaction-coronavirus-vaccine-goldman-earnings-2020-7-1029397581 Dow rallies 300 points on positive vaccine-trial data